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View Full Version : Breaking News: Lost footage unearthed - Zenyatta fans after finish of 2010 BC Classic


PaceAdvantage
12-22-2011, 08:03 PM
pSWN6Qj98Iw

horses4courses
12-22-2011, 08:11 PM
Blame will be hitched up to carry old Kim's hearse through the streets.
There won't be a dry eye all the way to the mausoleum........

Fwizard
12-22-2011, 09:01 PM
mean...just mean..lol :lol:

PhantomOnTour
12-22-2011, 09:03 PM
Well, that settles it...
Horse of the year: Kim Jong Il

FenceBored
12-22-2011, 09:04 PM
Speaking of world leaders and the 2010 Classic, as I hear it Putin was a Quality Road supporter.

bigmack
12-22-2011, 09:25 PM
I didn't play close attention to the heated debates but am I wrong in remembering far more whining about Z voted HoY than her losing by a nip at the wire to What's his Name?

PaceAdvantage
12-22-2011, 09:29 PM
I didn't play close attention to the heated debates but am I wrong in remembering far more whining about Z voted HoY than her losing by a nip at the wire to What's his Name?I knew someone would bring this up and apply the video to all those who thought the HOY vote went the wrong way...didn't think it would be you though...

I was thinking more along the lines of thaskalos... :lol:

Greyfox
12-22-2011, 09:33 PM
HOY? Try GOY. Golfer of the Year - Kim Jong Il

11 holes in one in first round ever played.

http://www.thesavvyboomer.com/.a/6a00d8341ccc5153ef015438980cb9970c-500wi (http://www.thesavvyboomer.com/.a/6a00d8341ccc5153ef015438980cb9970c-pi)

bigmack
12-22-2011, 10:04 PM
I knew someone would bring this up and apply the video to all those who thought the HOY vote went the wrong way...didn't think it would be you though...
I was thinking more along the lines of thaskalos... :lol:
Ain't that a hoot? I'm clearly 'abreast' of this region.

'Course it was more interesting reading then. What, with the likes of dahoos9698. Hey, by the way, he's back.

Welcome back, laddy. :ThmbUp:

Dahoss9698
12-22-2011, 10:46 PM
Ain't that a hoot? I'm clearly 'abreast' of this region.

'Course it was more interesting reading then. What, with the likes of dahoos9698. Hey, by the way, he's back.

Welcome back, laddy. :ThmbUp:

Too bad for your sake I'm not into dudes. I just wish one of the fine ladies at PA paid me as much attention as you do. I guess in a way one does.

Jasonm921
12-22-2011, 10:54 PM
Now this is street theater.

classhandicapper
12-23-2011, 12:39 AM
Was this thread an attempt to deflect attention from NYRA's screw up or just a temporary moment of insanity?

thaskalos
12-23-2011, 12:47 AM
I knew someone would bring this up and apply the video to all those who thought the HOY vote went the wrong way...didn't think it would be you though...

I was thinking more along the lines of thaskalos... :lol:
If it wasn't for some last minute Christmas shopping, you would have gotten your wish...

It's just as well though...because I wouldn't want you to think that I couldn't take a joke.

After all, not only are the Zenyatta fans excellent handicappers (as certain handicapping contest results clearly indicate)...they also pride themselves on their sense of humor. :)

dnlgfnk
12-23-2011, 01:17 AM
"After all, not only are the Zenyatta fans excellent handicappers (as certain handicapping contest results clearly indicate)"...

My segue to asking if the Benter wannabees and computer boys were defenders of Zenyatta? In other words, does winning percentage have a very high coefficient as a predictive factor for them, as an isolated factor?

classhandicapper
12-23-2011, 01:36 AM
"After all, not only are the Zenyatta fans excellent handicappers (as certain handicapping contest results clearly indicate)"...

My segue to asking if the Benter wannabees and computer boys were defenders of Zenyatta? In other words, does winning percentage have a very high coefficient as a predictive factor for them, as an isolated factor?

A serious question?

IMO win% often reveals things about ability that are not fully captured by speed figures and winning margins.

Horse racing is not a 100 yard dash. Horses rate and make moves based on what other horses are doing. Superior horses don't always maximize their final time and winning margin when they only do their best running for the last 1/4 mile (give or take) and finish with a lot of stamina in reserve. That goes double when paces tend to be slow.

When a horse keeps winning under various conditions, it's usually a sign that there's something extra in the tank.

The problem is that it's more or less impossible to measure how much extra there is and you rarely get paid a premium for betting on them (though you also can be wrong an awful lot by taking their figures at face value and underestimating their chances)

thaskalos
12-23-2011, 02:35 AM
A serious question?

IMO win% often reveals things about ability that are not fully captured by speed figures and winning margins.

Horse racing is not a 100 yard dash. Horses rate and make moves based on what other horses are doing. Superior horses don't always maximize their final time and winning margin when they only do their best running for the last 1/4 mile (give or take) and finish with a lot of stamina in reserve. That goes double when paces tend to be slow.

When a horse keeps winning under various conditions, it's usually a sign that there's something extra in the tank.

The problem is that it's more or less impossible to measure how much extra there is and you rarely get paid a premium for betting on them (though you also can be wrong an awful lot by taking their figures at face value and underestimating their chances)
There are two big questions that beg to be answered when handicapping a race:

1. How good is the horse when at its best?

2. How OFTEN is the horse "at its best"?

What good is a powerful race in a horse's past performances...if the horse's record shows that this race is not likely to be repeated today?

A horse's consistency is a vital component of the handicapping process, IMO...and it is often overlooked.

We are not trying to find the horse who has run the fastest last race...or the best recent race.

We are trying to find the horse who is most likely to run the best race TODAY!

And the horse's level of consistency has a lot to do with that.

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2011, 02:58 AM
Was this thread an attempt to deflect attention from NYRA's screw up or just a temporary moment of insanity?Yeah, that's what it was...a deflection of attention... :lol:

Seriously?

What it was was a carryover of a joke I first attempted in the off-topic section in a thread about the N. Korean dictator's recent demise.

And I'm glad some folks around here actually have a sense of humor, like thaskalos...when I saw all those people pounding the ground in grief, I immediately thought of what it must have been like to have been a Zenyatta fan on that day...

Lighten up fellas...it's been over a year...I figured jokes were a safe bet by now...

Overlay
12-23-2011, 03:21 AM
There are two big questions that beg to be answered when handicapping a race:

1. How good is the horse when at its best?

2. How OFTEN is the horse "at its best"?

What good is a powerful race in a horse's past performances...if the horse's record shows that this race is not likely to be repeated today?

A horse's consistency is a vital component of the handicapping process, IMO...and it is often overlooked.

We are not trying to find the horse who has run the fastest last race...or the best recent race.

We are trying to find the horse who is most likely to run the best race TODAY!

And the horse's level of consistency has a lot to do with that.

Nevertheless, various long-standing patterns of past performance can be (and are) very useful in accurately predicting the likelihood (not the certainty) that a horse will run well/win against the specific competition that it is facing today (which, to me, incorporates the issue of consistency/inconsistency).

Elliott Sidewater
12-23-2011, 05:35 AM
Usually, the entire lifetime record of a horse will reveal how good it is at its best and how often it is at its best. There may be other ways to get at this, but I use DRF Formulator. I say usually because the younger the horse and the fewer number of races it has, the less reliable the existing record will be. Some horses can only approach their best performances when in the hands of a particular trainer, when ridden by a particular jockey, or with a particular spacing between races, or when prepared at a different distance, and so on. The variations are probably semi-infinite.

The same goes for how often - very few horses are machines that always perform or even try to perform at their best consistently. Nor is it possible to consistently determine cause and effect. If I overmatch my claimer by running him in a starter allowance where the winner has over $400,000 in career earnings, the crappy looking past performance line is my fault, not the horse's. Welcome back to handicapping, and the home of the "best reasonable explanation".

If Col. Jessup was a handicapper, he might have said:

"You want the truth? You can't have the truth"

098poi
12-23-2011, 06:55 AM
I think this video is actually the first response to the paternity suit brought against Justin Bieber. (I think they will be relieved when they learn there is not much merit to the claim)

thaskalos
12-23-2011, 10:17 AM
...very few horses are machines that always perform or even try to perform at their best consistently. Nor is it possible to consistently determine cause and effect. If I overmatch my claimer by running him in a starter allowance where the winner has over $400,000 in career earnings, the crappy looking past performance line is my fault, not the horse's. Welcome back to handicapping, and the home of the "best reasonable explanation".

If Col. Jessup was a handicapper, he might have said:

"You want the truth? You can't have the truth"
I agree, and "consistency" - to me - means more than just a casual look at the past performances...or at the "consistency box".

I believe that it was William Quirin who first put to print the idea of noticing a horse's "failures"...meaning the times when the horse failed to deliver a strong performance, when conditions dictated that the horse should have been able to.

That's the glaring weakness of "paceline selection-driven" handicapping, IMO; it fails to consider how likely the repeat of the selected paceline might be.

And I agree, we can't have the truth...and luckily, we don't have to.

All we have to do is glimpse at it a little longer than most of the other "informed" players in this game. :)

classhandicapper
12-23-2011, 11:31 AM
Yeah, that's what it was...a deflection of attention... :lol:

Seriously?

What it was was a carryover of a joke I first attempted in the off-topic section in a thread about the N. Korean dictator's recent demise.

And I'm glad some folks around here actually have a sense of humor, like thaskalos...when I saw all those people pounding the ground in grief, I immediately thought of what it must have been like to have been a Zenyatta fan on that day...

Lighten up fellas...it's been over a year...I figured jokes were a safe bet by now...

It sort of stops feeling like a joke when it borders on obsession to make a joke that might zing people.

classhandicapper
12-23-2011, 11:34 AM
There are two big questions that beg to be answered when handicapping a race:

1. How good is the horse when at its best?

2. How OFTEN is the horse "at its best"?

What good is a powerful race in a horse's past performances...if the horse's record shows that this race is not likely to be repeated today?

A horse's consistency is a vital component of the handicapping process, IMO...and it is often overlooked.

We are not trying to find the horse who has run the fastest last race...or the best recent race.

We are trying to find the horse who is most likely to run the best race TODAY!

And the horse's level of consistency has a lot to do with that.

I agree that consistency of performance is very important.

What I am saying is that a record of consistent wins sometimes tells you more about the horse's "ability" than just the fact that it is consistent or has run speed figures in the range of "X".

It tells you that some of these horses are capable of BETTER than they have shown to date but haven't revealed it yet because of pace and race development issues. That's the part that many pure numbers guys miss.

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2011, 01:52 PM
It sort of stops feeling like a joke when it borders on obsession to make a joke that might zing people.Awwww...come on...you act as if I post about Zenyatta non stop...I haven't talked much about her at all since the HOY vote...

classhandicapper
12-23-2011, 01:58 PM
I agree that consistency of performance is very important.

What I am saying is that a record of consistent wins sometimes tells you more about the horse's "ability" than just the fact that it is consistent or has run speed figures in the range of "X".

It tells you that some of these horses are capable of BETTER than they have shown to date but haven't revealed it yet because of pace and race development issues. That's the part that many pure numbers guys miss.

For clarity.

Imagine the greatest human miler in the world had a series of races against top high school athletes and his strategy was to stalk the leaders until the top of the stretch and then swing outside and do his best. He would obviously dominate, but it's unlikely he would ever record a world class time or a runaway victory because the pace would not be world class and he'd only be doing his best at the very end.

At this stage you would know he was much better than high school athletes, but you'd have no idea he was the best miler in the world.

If he did the same thing in another series of races against college athletes (but not the best runners in the world), he would still win all of them and start recording faster times, but he'd still probably not record world class times or runaway victories for the same reason.

It's when he finally met other world class milers that the pace would allow for world class times and the threat of defeat if things didn't develop in a favorable way (or someone else ran the race of their life).

It's not until a horse starts getting exposed with losses under fairly honest conditions that you start seeing what the true limitations are. Sometimes there's nothing extra in the tank, but sometimes there's a lot.

Robert Goren
12-23-2011, 01:58 PM
pSWN6Qj98IwActually it now has been revealed the footage is older than that. The film dates back to March 13, 2010.

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2011, 02:01 PM
Actually it now has been revealed the footage is older than that. The film dates back to March 13, 2010.Was that the day of RA's comeback race? I was always optimistic about RA in 2010, while it was some others who were calling for her immediate retirement and saying she was all washed up, so I'm not in that video...but nice try... :lol:

toussaud
12-23-2011, 03:00 PM
they should have did that hitler reacts video for the zenyatta / blame breeders cup classic.

cj
12-23-2011, 03:02 PM
they should have did that hitler reacts video for the zenyatta / blame breeders cup classic.

It was done.

bigmack
12-23-2011, 03:06 PM
they should have did that hitler reacts video for the zenyatta / blame breeders cup classic.
aTX4fhK2h58

Grits
12-23-2011, 03:18 PM
"At least there's Uncle Mo."

This last line is killer . . . . . . :lol:

Oh, has it been awhile. I'm laughing so hard, I can't see straight.

The person that created this video is a genius; one with an incredible sense of humor.

Some of you guys should give the humor thing a try. Its good for one to be able to laugh like this.

classhandicapper
12-23-2011, 05:34 PM
aTX4fhK2h58

Even I have to admit that one was hysterical. It was clearly done by someone that understood all the nuances, players, and regionalism of the debate.

I thought the parts about "Andy Beyer going easy" and Goldikova being a "miler" were especially hysterical. All it needed was Hitler saying "Beyer figures on synthetics are bogus" and I would have spit out my drink.

toussaud
12-23-2011, 07:33 PM
aTX4fhK2h58
wow lol


they should put 1 million dollars in my bank account (patiently waits)

bigmack
12-23-2011, 09:35 PM
"At least there's Uncle Mo."
Why sure. That was the zinger for the whole piece.

Found that through a cursory search. Seems I recall seeing one 'back when' and it was far less entertaining.

Jay Trotter
12-23-2011, 11:12 PM
Do I dare post that video in the horse racing section? I think I will... :lol:

A pathetic plea for attention!!!:faint::bang: