Malibu Stakes

[toussaud]

$300,000 Malibu Stakes (gr. I, Race 9, 4:35 p.m.), 3YOs, 7 Furlongs
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. El Pocho (CHI), K Krigger, 118, R Cardenas
2. Centralinteligence (KY), J Rosario, 118, R W Ellis
3. Luckarack (CA), H I Berrios, 118, D F O'Neill
4. Rothko (KY), C S Nakatani, 118, S M Asmussen
5. Racing Aptitude (FL), M E Smith, 118, B Baffert
6. Hoorayforhollywood (KY), G K Gomez, 118, B Baffert
7. Light Up the Score (KY), V Espinoza, 118, S M Asmussen
8. Smash (KY), R Bejarano, 118, B Baffert
9. Associate (KY), R A Dominguez, 118, R E Dutrow Jr.
10. Wine Police (KY), J Talamo, 118, S M Asmussen
11. The Factor (KY), M Garcia, 123, B Baffert

Read more: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/66687/baffert-asmussen-carry-heavy-load-in-malibu#ixzz1hDak0PYl



Betting against the factor here, 2 bad efforts, going to have to beat me and show me he's back

I like Hoorayfohollowood at this distance and you will get a price.

[Dahoss9698]

I really, really like Centralinteligence. I thought his race two back was a very solid and last time was another step forward. Would love to see him sitting right off The Factor early.

[Zaf]

Think I heard on the Roger Stein Show that Baffert never won this one. Well he's got four in here, and M E Smith, G K Gomez, R Bejarano, M Garcia, think he wants this. Looks like a great betting race :jump:

Z

[classhandicapper]

Wow! Nice field and great betting race.

[Spalding No!]

Think I heard on the Roger Stein Show that Baffert never won this one. Well he's got four in here, and M E Smith, G K Gomez, R Bejarano, M Garcia, think he wants this. Looks like a great betting race :jump:


Oddly enough, Bob Baffert has trained a Malibu winner. Love That Red beat the Baffert-trained Straight Man (and BC Classic winner Cat Thief) in the '99 Malibu. Two starts later, he was in Bob Baffert's barn.

Another interesting note, Love That Red, a gelding, made a comeback after a 5 year layoff. Started a enough times to drop from $40k to $10k before calling it a day...hopefully for good.

[Zaf]

K, my bad must of been a Hollywood stakes race then, looking forward to opening day at the Great Race Place :jump:

Z

[Spalding No!]

K, my bad must of been a Hollywood stakes race then, looking forward to opening day at the Great Race Place :jump:


No, you're right, Baffert hasn't won the Malibu. I was just pointing out the ironic footnote that he eventually trained Love That Red.

[Zaf]

Thanks for clearing that up ! This race is going to be a dandy :)

Z

[cj]

I remember Silver Charm going down to a shocking defeat to Lord Grillo.

[Spalding No!]

I remember Silver Charm going down to a shocking defeat to Lord Grillo.

I was banking on Mud Route being the upsetter that day. He ran terrible, then chased Silver Charm home in the rest of the Strub series. Eventually, Mud Route beat Silver Charm at Del Mar, but something went amiss with the latter, as he was beaten about 25 lengths.

[nijinski]

Baffert and Asmussen have seven shots between them .

[pondman]

M/L not out yet, but I'd expect Smash to be the favorite. Four and a half month layoff and he runs a 1:14.3; Tight morning fractions-- look out. Not much value here. I'll pass.

[toussaud]

Wow! Nice field and great betting race.
this race usually is one of the better betting races

[pondman]

M/L not out yet, but I'd expect Smash to be the favorite. Four and a half month layoff and he runs a 1:14.3; Tight morning fractions-- look out. Not much value here. I'll pass.

Smash 9/2.

If you (the crowd) give me the odds-- I'm in. He lost to Coil on a poor ride by Sutherland; She got wedged down at the rail. Had to wait for a horse to tail off before going outside. And he lost to Indiano (who ran a 108 beyers that day.) Been running with good horses with not much in this race. Didn't see any whip in the last-- look to move on hand motion only. Pace people should love this one. A must in exotics.

[Spalding No!]

If you (the crowd) give me the odds-- I'm in. He lost to Coil on a poor ride by Sutherland; She got wedged down at the rail. Had to wait for a horse to tail off before going outside

Smash had dead aim on Coil in that allowance race at the quarter pole and got stuffed. Sutherland waited briefly, but the horse is a finisher anyways, so it's not like he was taken completely out of his game.

Been running with good horses with not much in this race.

When not losing to stakes class horses, he's been hard pressed to beat fellow Malibu rivals Hoorayforhollywood and Centralinteligence.

Didn't see any whip in the last-- look to move on hand motion only.

Bejarano hit him left handed down the lane and switched to the right hand for good measure as the colt took his time reeling in Centralinteligence.

Given his multiple 6-month layoffs and the short fields he's been facing, Smash may not have the same stretch punch at crunch time in the Malibu, especially if he's given too much work to do in the lane.

[Dahoss9698]

Smash 9/2.

If you (the crowd) give me the odds-- I'm in. He lost to Coil on a poor ride by Sutherland; She got wedged down at the rail. Had to wait for a horse to tail off before going outside. And he lost to Indiano (who ran a 108 beyers that day.) Been running with good horses with not much in this race. Didn't see any whip in the last-- look to move on hand motion only. Pace people should love this one. A must in exotics.

Aren't you a bit concerned that he has had so many gaps in his races?

[PhantomOnTour]

What a race....

The Factor is the only true E type in this field. He's also faced the best competition. That being said, I don't see him as a 'classy' horse, and if anyone looks him in the eye as they turn for home I think he will back off.
Shackleford was clearly too much man for him in the BC and he wilted badly.
Gotta go against him here...considering a few:

Hoorayforhollywood - unlike The Factor, this guy is a fighter. Turns back for the first time in his life, working nicely at SA...Garcia and Bejarano go elsewhere though and he may not be fast enough for these. Has a shot, but want more than his 8-1 ML.

Rothko - like horses who win with authority. Won 3 straight at 3 different tracks while cruising through conditions. Working okay at SA, not a fan of the layoff after his last race, Gr1 foes is a big jump in class, but he could be a serious horse, speed figs are good enough to contend.

Maybe I'm dreamin a bit with Wine Police who may be too wide and too late, but he ran a nearly identical race to Rothko on the same day. Faced some tough ones this year, but sometimes he just backs off. Stuck on him for some reason... :confused:

[pondman]

Aren't you a bit concerned that he has had so many gaps in his races?

I see it as a lightly raced 3 year old. Don't know anything about it's injures, or the gap between 2 and 3 years. But...I think these connections are serious enough and didn't go grade 1 until now because it wasn't ready. It's a horse you want to be on if the price is right; I wouldn't bet it as a favorite, which I think it might become. It's fast enough in the stretch to put these away. I looked at all his races. It moves easy to the outside, stretch runs are hand ridden. He can toy with many of these. Definitely is an exotic contender in this field.

Only hoping for a price!

[pondman]

When not losing to stakes class horses, he's been hard pressed to beat fellow Malibu rivals Hoorayforhollywood and Centralinteligence..

Centralinteligence has a potential to drill the front end...I'd consider betting the horse if at 3/4. I personally am not someone who would bet this horse on the nose in the malibu after a second place. Hoorayforhollywood is going to have to go after someone running a sub 1:09. They've been looking for a weak spot for it's first non-maiden win. I don't think this is it's spot. I'd want big$$ for that bet.

I'd rather go with the racing apptitude, rothko, or the associate (because of recent wins) to add value to an exotic ticket.

[Dahoss9698]

I see it as a lightly raced 3 year old. Don't know anything about it's injures, or the gap between 2 and 3 years. But...I think these connections are serious enough and didn't go grade 1 until now because it wasn't ready. It's a horse you want to be on if the price is right; I wouldn't bet it as a favorite, which I think it might become. It's fast enough in the stretch to put these away. I looked at all his races. It moves easy to the outside, stretch runs are hand ridden. He can toy with many of these. Definitely is an exotic contender in this field.

Only hoping for a price!

Yeah, I guess my point was he's lightly raced for a reason. It's not like Baffert is really patient with his horses.

He's certainly talented enough and can win. I'm just turned off by all of the gaps.

[classhandicapper]

To me, the key to betting the race is your opinion of The Factor and his post time odds.

Is he an early bloomer who has already shown us his best and now seems to be tailing off? (Then he's a great bet against as the favorite)

Is he fastest horse in the race with the potential to shake loose against weaker horses than he has already beaten in the past and had excuses in his last two because he battled fast paces on tracks that were not particularly conducive to his inside speed (even if not heavily biased) and didn't want to go a mile in his latest. (Then I'm not dying to bet against him unless he's very short)

IMO, the reality is probably a little bit of both - meaning I don't really like him a whole lot as the favorite because I think one of these other lightly raced horses can easily develop enough to go past him, but I'm not dying to bet against him either unless the odds are very short.

[woodtoo]

I'm a bit intrigued by the :1: El Pocho,they seem to have set the bar quite

high for his first American start but ...he has been training well and after
watching the replay of his win in Chile,where he sat off the leader and drew away in the stretch in a 13 horse field,could he upset the apple cart at
$100plus. :1: El Pocho to win, the upset of the day.

[ten2oneormore]

I'm a bit intrigued by the :1: El Pocho,they seem to have set the bar quite

high for his first American start but ...he has been training well and after
watching the replay of his win in Chile,where he sat off the leader and drew away in the stretch in a 13 horse field,could he upset the apple cart at
$100plus. :1: El Pocho to win, the upset of the day.

I think its Matz who brings up bunch of runners from Chile.They all seem to catch the eye but rarely ever run as good as their reputation.

I'm most likely going with Rothko.

[woodtoo]

OK, I've taken off my rum colored glasses.Why would the connections not
enter him in a much easier spot than this,like allowance or NW2. :confused:

I will still make a small wager on him and exactor.I do like Rothko also.

[Casino]

:2: -Centralinteligence

[iceknight]

I'm a bit intrigued by the :1: El Pocho,they seem to have set the bar quite

high for his first American start but ...he has been training well and after
watching the replay of his win in Chile,where he sat off the leader and drew away in the stretch in a 13 horse field,could he upset the apple cart at
$100plus. :1: El Pocho to win, the upset of the day.

They also had him entered for another big race in Hollywood park in early Dec only to scratch him in the morning of the race.. (The Hollywood Derby- which was won by Ultimate Eagle)

[woodtoo]

They also had him entered for another big race in Hollywood park in early Dec only to scratch him in the morning of the race.. (The Hollywood Derby- which was won by Ultimate Eagle)

Thanks iceknight,he was entered on Nov.26 and 27,first 6f 48k Alw.Turf then
the Hollywood Derby 1 1/4 Turf.
I'll wait and see if he shows up at the paddock.

[Tom]

Not a lot of stakes wins in this group.

[andymays]

Smash looks good on paper and if you're using 3 or 4 in the race he's a must use but he may not like a dirt surface as much as synthetic or maybe even turf. Then again he only had one race on dirt (2nd)and the winner of the race came back to win again. Smash will have an honest pace to run at. I think the Factor will have to rate behind Centralintelligence.

[precocity]

:4: ROTHKO :cool:

[cosmo96]

Associate

[JustRalph]

Some kind of hot pace in this one ? Rothko looks tough

:10: Wine Police is probably going to be a price, worth a few bucks if they go fast enough.........? Maybe........

The :10: is outclassed but the race shape might work to his favor

[Ocala Mike]

What JustRalph said. Horse runs well fresh, and is nicely positioned. Definitely in the Tri.


Ocala Mike

[jerry-g]

I hope this doesn't set off an "air head alert" at the Pace Advantage headquarters. I like Associate at 6-1 M/L. Perhaps for all the wrong reasons.

Domenguez/Dutrow are good combined together 46%, The horse has two six furlong w/o's since Dec 9 and the last was a nice 5 F in 61 2/5 secs. He's earned Beyer of 112 and 103 respectively at 7f dirt. So he can race par. The dirt in New York may be different than California dirt, I dunno. Anyway, if he goes off at 6-1 or better I may give a shot. I don't think the scratches are known yet for this 723pm Florida time race.

[plainolebill]

Like JR, I'm going to bet Wine Police to win and fool around with him a little in the exotics.

*Luckarack is a big closer and could get a piece if they go too fast early

[PaceAdvantage]

If I were going to be betting this race (which I'm not), I would be looking at :9: & :7:

[RXB]

Smash is my play.

[Tom]

I'd look at the :11: in here, too.
If I were betting, which I am not because it is SA and they don't support players.

Ooops - I meant the :4:

Shoulda left well enough alone! :lol:

[andymays]

First impression is that the Factor comes down.

[andymays]

The six caused it. The Factor stays up.

[classhandicapper]

First impression is that the Factor comes down.

What is this Gulfstream? (just kidding saw your next post)

Nice performance.

[JustRalph]

The factor looked like he did it easy.........

They didn't back up much at all

[Dahoss9698]

They didn't back up much at all

They got away pretty easy with that opening quarter and half based on times earlier in the day. Both Cal Bred two year old stakes went faster to to the first quarter and half.

I'm trying to figure out what happened with Centralinteligence. Looked like something spooked him.

[classhandicapper]

They got away pretty easy with that opening quarter and half based on times earlier in the day. Both Cal Bred two year old stakes went faster to to the first quarter and half.

I'm trying to figure out what happened with Centralinteligence. Looked like something spooked him.

It didn't look like there was a lot of quality speed in the race. The Factor looked like the controlling speed to me. That's what made the race unplayable for me. I couldn't see playing a favorite that might have already peaked against all those lightly raced improving horses and I didn't want to bet against the best horse as a controlling speed with some potential excuses in his last two. I was shocked that Garcia rated him after he broke so well.

Centralintelligence (or the rider) looked like he got spooked by the horse next to him. The reaction seemed like a preemptive move caused by being afraid to be in tight.

[andymays]

It didn't look like there was a lot of quality speed in the race. The Factor looked like the controlling speed to me. That's what made the race unplayable for me. I couldn't see playing a favorite that might have already peaked against all those lightly raced improving horses and I didn't want to bet against the best horse as a controlling speed with some potential excuses in his last two. I was shocked that Garcia rated him after he broke so well.

Centralintelligence (or the rider) looked like he got spooked by the horse next to him. The reaction seemed like a preemptive move caused by being afraid to be in tight.
He didn't like being near the rail and the 6 came in a bumped him.