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turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 02:01 PM
After a hiatus to do some development, I have tried for the first time to build logic based methods specific for class, distance and conditions.It is a bit of black box and based on personal preferences. So here goes.

Handicapped for sloppy track, 90 days form, races at similar distance based on fps pace ratings developed over my 60 days hiatus. Tuned with 200 samples races worked from current to past and sample size is based on personal preference, distance based on sprint\route and tuned for 4 horse exacta box. Each raced is tuned with a method specific for conditions of race. Jockey Trainer relationships not considered unless Maiden claimers. Class factored. Scratches as of 1400 edt.
Happy Holidays.
Kirk


HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 1 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
8.5f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
CLAIMING PURSE: $14000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
2 CARTOUCHE 3.0 TORRES F. C. CRISTEL M. J.
6 SWEETEST RHYTHM 3.5 EMIGH C. A. LEONARD III G.
1 SON OF TIGER 4.5 GEROUX F. SLAGER L. M.
3 RULEROUS 8.0 MARTINEZ S. B. DAVIS L. P.
4 WHERES WINSTON 5.0 FELIX J. E. JANSEN K.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 2 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
6.0f DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
CLAIMING PURSE: $12500 RACE RATINGS: PRE 23
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
1 KANIJA 6.0 FELIX J. E. PEREZ M.
5 CLEVER OUTLET 8.0 TORRES F. C. SWEARINGEN T. H.
3 JS HONOR 5.0 ROMAN C. PEREZ M.
6 ROYAL RENAISSANCE 6.0 HAMILTON Q. CRISTEL M. J.
4 SEA WHY 4.0 MARTINEZ S. B. RIVELLI L.
7 BALLYGAWLEY 10.0 DIEGO I. HARAN J.
2 PASSPOST TO PARIS 3.0 SANCHEZ D. DIVITO J. P.
8 POCANELLA 5.0 CASTRO C. L. MILLONAS D.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 3 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
6.5f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
CLAIMING PURSE: $16000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 40
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
1 TOTAL PACKAGE 2.0 TORRES F. C. CALHOUN W. B.
6 SSSCHILLE DAY 2.5 MOJICA O. PEREZ M.
2 DARRELL SAYS 4.0 ROMAN C. DORRIS T.
5 STRONG LUCK 8.0 HAMILTON Q. YANEZ M. R.
3 GRAN TORINE 6.0 CASTRO C. L. HARAN J.
4 DECOMMANDER 8.0 RIGGS T. CHILDERS J. R.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 4 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
8.5f DIRT ILLINOIS REGISTERED CONCEIVED AND/OR FOALED
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $35000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 50
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 PERFECT STRANGER 6.0 ROMAN C. SCHWAN E. K.
6 CYBERPHOBE 8.0 HAMILTON Q. MANLEY S.
7 POINT YOUR FINGER 6.0 KARLSSON I. POULOS D.
1 LITTLE FRANCES 3.0 FELIX J. E. MASON I.
4 DUBIOUS 2.0 GEROUX F. POULOS D.
2 MYA FACCIA BELLA 4.5 TORRES F. C. MILLER D. L.
3 BONNIE 10.0 PEREZ E. E. DORRIS T.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 5 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
6.0f DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
CLAIMING PURSE: $14000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 29

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
4 COWGIRL KNOCKOUT 12.0 ROMAN C. DORRIS C.
1 SHARE THE JOY 3.0 RIGGS T. BERNDT J.
6 OCEAN SURGE 5.0 DIEGO I. MARTINEZ R.
7 SPANISH ROYALTY 5.0 KARLSSON I. LEONARD III G.
2 DREYMORE 3.5 GILES F. DORRIS C.
3 LICAS BLUFF 4.5 MARTINEZ S. B. SCHERBENSKE P. E.
-
HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 6 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
8.5f DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OT
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $36000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 50

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
4 ROMAN INVADER 2.5 MARTINEZ S. B. MULLINS S. D.
3 EASTERN PRECIPICE 8.0 ROMAN C. DINI M.
6 HEAVENLY LASS 6.0 HAMILTON Q. SILVA C. H.
2 AMERICAS BLOSSOM 6.0 RIGGS T. KIRBY F. J.
7 CATALINA WAY 4.0 STANLEY A. O. GORHAM R. M.
5 CASCABELLA 3.5 TORRES F. C. CALHOUN W. B.
1 EMBERS GLOWING 5.0 FELIX J. E. MASON I.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 7 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
6.0f DIRT ILLINOIS REGISTERED CONCEIVED AND/OR FOALED
MDN SP WT PURSE: $33000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 19

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
8 COPUS 4.0 FELIX J. E. RAINWATER B.
13 REDBONE 8.0 MEZA N. LEWELLYN P.
2 GEORGIE MY BOY 12.0 ROMAN C. RANDAZZO JR. F. C.
9 HES SMASHED 10.0 THORNTON T. DORRIS T.
1 COWBOY NATION 15.0 TORRES F. C. SILVA C. H.
3 WILD STAG 8.0 HAMILTON Q. YANEZ M. R.
4 TOTAL IMMERSION 6.0 KARLSSON I. KIRBY F. J.
6 MR NUM NUM 10.0 RIGGS T. KIRBY F. J.
7 ITALIAN BREEZE 12.0 DIEGO I. HARAN J.
10 SIX GUN ROYAL 15.0 WELLS L. FRIDLEY S.
12 PAPER MAKER 5.0 EMIGH C. A. BECKER S.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 8 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
6.0f DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
CLAIMING PURSE: $16000 RACE RATINGS: PRE 38

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 CONGOTOWN 5.0 MOJICA O. LYNN J. C.
4 GLORY CHASER 6.0 THORNTON T. MARTINEZ R.
7 THIS TIME 4.5 HAMILTON Q. TOMLINSON M. A.
1 PURE POLISHED 10.0 ROMAN C. MCCANICK P. M.
6 WILDCAT MISS 4.0 FELIX J. E. GULICK J. M.
8 HELLO LOVE 8.0 DIEGO I. LIVESAY C.
3 MYSTERY RIDGE 5.0 GEROUX F. BRUEGGEMANN R. A.
2 MISSY BISCUIT 8.0 RIGGS T. KIRBY F. J.
9 SHES AN ALPHA GAM 10.0 TORRES F. C. LEONARD III G.

HAWTHORNE 12-21-2011 RACE 9 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 82
6.0f DIRT MAIDENS TWO YEARS OLD
MDN CLAIM PURSE: $13500 RACE RATINGS: PRE 27
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
6 FIRST TASTE 6.0 KARLSSON I. KIRBY F. J.
8 MOSQUILLO 3.5 FELIX J. E. PEREZ M.
5 TAKE SOME ADVICE 5.0 RIGGS T. BERNDT J.
4 FALCON POINT 4.0 TORRES F. C. GORHAM R. M.
2 IMAGE EXPRESS 15.0 MARTINEZ S. B. SCHERBENSKE P. E.
9 GOLDSWISH 6.0 STANLEY A. O. MULLINS S. D.
10 IDEAL ASSCHER CUT 8.0 GILES F. MCSHANE D. D.
1 GOLD BARON 12.0 HAMILTON Q. MCEWEN B. J.
3 DEMIS NATIVEDANCER 15.0 RODRIGUEZ L. R. WHITSON R.
1A JOHAR IRISH 12.0 HAMILTON Q. MCEWEN B. J.

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 02:37 PM
1st Race
Paddock appearance- 2 looks well 6 looks very sharp
Prediction 4 forces early 2 takes lead at top of stretch and holds of the 6

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 02:49 PM
Letting the 3 determine the early pace was worst case scenario as the 4 laid off a speed duel with the 3 and even with a slow pace the 1 got the best trip .

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 03:03 PM
Paddock Appearance- 5 looks very sharp. 1 looks well .2 is small. 6 is holding excellent flesh

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 03:13 PM
Got the winner but no exacta. 3 had nowhere to go and should be useful with an outside post next out. Adjusting the track to good and or fast.
Logic step
If RCon= NW2 and W in LR and LR=MCL then W=NO
unless Tr/Own=Starts at meet>25 and wins >15% and class =,< LR .

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 03:32 PM
Race 3 Paddock-
1 Looks very well
2 Looks route type
3 Flat feet
4Looks very good flesh
5Flat feet
6 Nice Flesh Sharp

Hard to beat the 1 by public choice and looks the part. Use as a key for parlay wagers would be only solution for value.
5 Place the 6

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 03:50 PM
Very Hard to beat the West's in these kind of races. Trying to force the 1 to run early took its toll on the the other EP types, and the horse that looked the route type forced the 1 to run all the way, with the race over at the 1/8th. The 4 ran huge as everyone else wrapped up.
Top 2 picks gives the Pick 3 and both doubles. Modest but useful.

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 04:15 PM
Did my good deed for the day Top 2 gets all doubles and Pick3's from the first 4 hope everybody does well the rest of the day. Finally getting off my butt and go watch live racing tonight at Penn.

summersquall
12-21-2011, 07:51 PM
Best post of 2011. Great cappin!

PICSIX
12-21-2011, 09:25 PM
Nice Job :ThmbUp:

Mike

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 09:46 PM
Had a wonderful evening at Penn tonight. Talked to Mark Shuman and watch for his horses to run better. Told David Wells if I had a vote I would agree with Whobet and Robert Cole is looking for a 7500 starter that is for horses that have their last 5. He wants the streak to continue and offering up a big purse starter is not the deal/ Watch for Defying Gravity to run much better next out after AQ. Groom say he wanted to kill Cohen for rating the speedy mare.

turninforhome10
12-21-2011, 10:43 PM
Top 4 picks 4 horse EX box
Wagered 216
Lost 184
Top2 picks Pick 3
Wagered 72
Returned 708
Top 2 DD
Wagered 72
Return 140.8