Trainer intent discussion...learning, thoughts of, for Gulfstream 12/16

[sammy the sage]

Would love to hear anybody's take on trainer intent for this card...call it learning...

would also like to hear from any owner's out there who are ok w/trainer's NOT trying to win a race...esp...considering the fragility of today's modern horse...

you'll only get SO MANY chances...not...

I do realize that sometimes trainer intent is obvious...let's say w/Ward in the 9th..as he's just trying a new surface...and doesn't know or hopeing for victory.

But what about Weaver in the 10th let's say..just going for a spin..looking for bigger game down the road...or just checking for soundness...to see if horse can still run or what?

These races or any other's would be great read discussion/opinions on!

[tbwinner]

would also like to hear from any owner's out there who are ok w/trainer's NOT trying to win a race...esp...considering the fragility of today's modern horse...


I own horses and claim regularly...I currently have 9 in my stable and have probably been through 15 others this year. From a claiming owner standpoint, I rarely enter a horse that is not fit or able to win the race. I may from time to time enter a horse over its head or the wrong spot because races can't fill, but the horse is still fit and will likely run a respectable race. I win at average 19% and hit the board 50%+...something I'm very proud of.

But I think if you look at it from a different prospective, some owners and trainers like trying new things with horses. Specifically if the owner is also the breeder or paid a hefty sum at auction...they will try new things before dropping the horse. Some trainers may also race a horse into fitness...something I think is BS but others go by it...that's what makes people different.

I think one of the key things with trainer, and owner, intent is determining whether they are a claiming owner or not. If the owner has a stable full of claimers I'd likely believe they're in a race to win it, everytime. Most claiming owners, including big outfits like Midwest Thoroughbreds, or small outfits like mine, need these horses to produce checks to pay the bills...for claimers that is the lifeline in this business...just my thoughts.

[classhandicapper]

I think trainer intent is about the probability of the horse running its "A" race or hitting a new peak.

We all handicap races using various methods to measure the horses performances (speed, pace, class, trip etc..). We also all know that a lot of our "top figure" horses disappoint us and don't run back to our figures.

When a horse is entered in a spot that a trainer has been very successful with in the past or a trainer's entire barn seems to be firing its "A" race or top, those horses are simply going to win a lot more often than other horses with similar PPs because the percentage of misfires is lower and the percentage of new peaks is higher.

So trainer "intent", competence, aiming for a specific meet, trainer specialty, and other factors all lead to a higher percentage of winners.

[rubicon55]

I think trainer intent is about the probability of the horse running its "A" race or hitting a new peak.

We all handicap races using various methods to measure the horses performances (speed, pace, class, trip etc..). We also all know that a lot of our "top figure" horses disappoint us and don't run back to our figures.

When a horse is entered in a spot that a trainer has been very successful with in the past or a trainer's entire barn seems to be firing its "A" race or top, those horses are simply going to win a lot more often than other horses with similar PPs because the percentage of misfires is lower and the percentage of new peaks is higher.

So trainer "intent", competence, aiming for a specific meet, trainer specialty, and other factors all lead to a higher percentage of winners.

I agree. I know you know the following, this is for others. I like use trainer stats to find relationships in regard trainer strengths and weaknesses (i.e. dropping in class, rising in class, switching distances and surfaces). Even the best trainers have it tough in being good in all categories. It can be invaluable to find percentages regarding trainer and owner winning percentages together. Comes in handy if you know a trainer is trying to "darken" a horses form for a bigger hit down the road.

[lamboguy]

in today's third race, i believe that kieran's intent is to sit third, run down the 2 horses in front of him, and win the race by 5 lengths.