Turf Paradise 12-12-11

[KidCapper]

Race 1-- Prob fav. looks to win at low odds.

$10 Exacta 's :2: over the :1: :6:

[KidCapper]

Race 2

$20 WP :1:

$1 Trifecta :1: :2: with :1: :2: with all.

[KidCapper]

Race 2

$20 WP :1:

$1 Trifecta :1: :2: with :1: :2: with all.


:2: ran :1: didn't......hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[KidCapper]

Race 3

$20 WP :4:

$1 trifecta :4: :2: with :4: :2: with all

[johnhannibalsmith]

The :2: at 2-5 right now looks like a terrible play at that price and maybe this just isn't a race deserving of a wager, but I'm interested in :3: Jamaican Memories at the price (12-1 at the moment).

First time back off a break and looked like he needed that break at the end of the campaign last season. He's never really faced the depth that he catches here, but a couple of solid efforts behind the (deceased) runner Arcadian, who was legit. He bested the likes of Forest Mouse, who has proven more than capable in a spot like this, so I'm willing to give him a bit of leeway in trying to assess his true quality against older allowance types.

Good luck!

[KidCapper]

Race 3

$20 WP :4:

$1 trifecta :4: :2: with :4: :2: with all


got the winner...wanted better odds though. possible speed bias on the inside in the stretch?? Back to back races inside horses passed and came back to win.

Good call on the 3 John.

[KidCapper]

Race 4 - The entry looks tough in here to me. Both making 3rd starts off the shelf and the :1: is a front runner while the :1a: is a closer. A perfect entry.

$20 WP :1: :1a: Entry

$1 trifecta :1: :1a: :2: with :1: :1a: :2: with all

[lamboguy]

race4

i give the #3 a good swing

[johnhannibalsmith]

got the winner...wanted better odds though. possible speed bias on the inside in the stretch?? Back to back races inside horses passed and came back to win.

Good call on the 3 John.

I kind of wondered if there might be an inside bias after the 2nd or if the bias is actually out in the middle of the track and thus, making both eventual winners work that much harder to win from the inside.

Kind of hard to say yet, but often following rain and maintenance, you actually see the winning moves launched outside the 3 or 4 path on the turn. Either way, as I'm not at the track, it seems speculative with both winners that fought back probably figured to be the "best" in the respective fields.

Jamaican Memories acted like a horse that had been away a while and the late rally is similarly hard to gauge as he essentially passed stopping horses, but it was a relief to see him at least belly down the last five-sixteenths after acting disinterested early.

For what its worth, a couple of jocks riding the fourth have been in the room since the outset and ridden at least once over the strip today and their tendencies here may shed more light on a possible bias.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Don't care for the 4th at all, but I might could play a couple on the :7: R DUBAI GIRL at 7-1. Her first here was against mildly better and she ran okay, pressing for a half and fading late. That angle for horses making their second start over this surface tends to work, assuming the horse can actually run.

I don't really think that she's much, if any better, than just about any other runner in here - but given the price and the chance for a fair amount of improvement, she'd probably be my VERY tepid play. Similarly, :5: Angel's Keep has a right to run better, this trip, her second this meet and moving from missing bug Lance Bullock to Toye's go-to Dennis Collins. Still, same price as the :7: and I'd need to at least be in the double digits to get too excited about this one.

[johnhannibalsmith]

What a mess... the :7: gets herself left jacking around in the gate and then blows up and shuts off the :5: on the backside... laf...

[KidCapper]

Race 5 I love the :8: here. 3rd try off the layoff and gets the added distance here. Jockey switch as well. now or never.

$20 WP :8:

$1 trifecta :8: with :7: :2: with all
$1 Trifecta :2: :7: with :8: with all.

Good Luck !

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 5 I love the :8: here. 3rd try off the layoff and gets the added distance here. Jockey switch as well. now or never.

$20 WP :8:

$1 trifecta :8: with :7: :2: with all
$1 Trifecta :2: :7: with :8: with all.

Good Luck !

Dang... got distracted by outdoor excitement until just as they left the gate... nice job... I can't believe you got such a nice price on Contreve... :ThmbUp:

edited to add: Wow... knowing me I probably would have danced around the old veteran Lydias Legacy who grinded it out for 3rd at a huge price to cap a $625 trifecta! Even nicer!

[KidCapper]

Race 5 I love the :8: here. 3rd try off the layoff and gets the added distance here. Jockey switch as well. now or never.

$20 WP :8:

$1 trifecta :8: with :7: :2: with all
$1 Trifecta :2: :7: with :8: with all.

Good Luck !


Boom! That'll keep me on the right side of the ole ledger! $188 and $90 on the $20 WP. Nice all hit in the 3rd hole for the $625.10 trifecta !!

Next !!

[KidCapper]

Race 6- Looks like the :4: is my play vs. these. Takes slight drop in class today and has enoguh back speed to win a 3 1/2 furlong race in his pp's. good enough for me here.

$20 WP :4:

$1 trifecta :4: with :7: :8: with all

$1 trifecta :7: :8: with :4: with all

Good Luck!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

When I saw that the morning line on :4: Mixed Intent had been made at 5-1, that alone almost got me out to play a pick 5. This filly take a monumental drop from open five claimers to this "feedbag" race (non 1-2-3 at the meet) and I remember her last season hooking up on the front end with fast, solid claimers that would be ultra-tough here.

Second start over the strip this meet, I don't think I could play against her in this spot, but the presence of FPX maiden winner Stealthy makes things a little confusing. She ran against much tougher in her local debut and got drubbed so this should be a much better spot. She too is quick as she showed in that four furlong win at Pomona, and she draws outside of Mixed Intent with a quintessential "speed jock" aboard which makes her impossible to ignore.

But, she is 4-5 and is just a maiden winner facing multiple winners and has never run well over this track. Gotta play against her. Not sure what to make of Ovid Fasti who faced probably an easier bunch of old mares last time and simply wilted late, but she's got plenty of pace to deal with here too if the aformentioned break and run.

An unusual play for me - I'd like to play the :4: to win, but then also key over :7: Proud Y Bonita (20-1 @ 9MTP) in an exacta and also play trifectas with Proud Y Bonita 2nd and 3rd to the field in the hopes that the favorite and Ovid Fasti wilt completely.

Good luck... a bit of a scramble...

[KidCapper]

Race 6- Looks like the :4: is my play vs. these. Takes slight drop in class today and has enoguh back speed to win a 3 1/2 furlong race in his pp's. good enough for me here.

$20 WP :4:

$1 trifecta :4: with :7: :8: with all

$1 trifecta :7: :8: with :4: with all

Good Luck!!

Hit the low priced winner but missed the trick. Was gambling the 6 wouldn't hit the board.

Next!

[KidCapper]

Race 7- Ugly bunch here with the Hol shipper getting most of the attention after one dull start. A real head stratcher with no standouts to me. I think they will have to catch the :2: .

$20 WP :2:

$1 Trifecta :2: with :3: :7: :9: with all

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 7- Ugly bunch here with the Hol shipper getting most of the attention after one dull start. A real head stratcher with no standouts to me. I think they will have to catch the :2: .

$20 WP :2:

$1 Trifecta :2: with :3: :7: :9: with all

I like your thinking here. Can't play type of race. If I was there to look at them and see if she looked remotely fit I might part with $2 to win on :6: Copy Irish at that price.

[Zydeco]

Nice call on the :2: What about that :10: ? Next time out?

[KidCapper]

Race 7- Ugly bunch here with the Hol shipper getting most of the attention after one dull start. A real head stratcher with no standouts to me. I think they will have to catch the :2: .

$20 WP :2:

$1 Trifecta :2: with :3: :7: :9: with all

Guess I shouldve spent the extra buck to put the all in the 2nd hole! :bang:

Oh well 3 straight on top winners and a big trifecta so far today. We'll take it !

Next!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Guess I shouldve spent the extra buck to put the all in the 2nd hole! :bang:

Oh well 3 straight on top winners and a big trifecta so far today. We'll take it !

Next!

Bud, when you cash a ticket on a Leonardo de Espinoza winner... you did plenty good! :lol:

[KidCapper]

Race 8- I've landed on the :10: here at a very juicy 10-1 on the line. Takes the blinkers off for a 17% trainer move and goes on the 2 sprints to a route pattern. Bullet work coming in on the 4th. Lots to like at this price.

$20 WP :10:

$1 Trifecta :10: with :3: :9: with all

$1 Trifecta :10: with all with :3: :9:

Good Luck!!

[johnhannibalsmith]

Alright, this race is what kept me from playing the pick 5.

I REALLY wanted to single the 6th and then come back here and single a mare that I just plain like, but unfortunately, I also have a soft spot for another in here and just couldn't justify the "2 deep" here and spreads I needed to use in the other 3 legs.

I'm rooting for, and probably would play, :4: Schifty's Angela. She's a pretty neat old mare and finally finds the condition here in Arizona that should give her a fair shot. She's kind of a free running mare that is simply a little more capable doing that around two-turns. I haven't seen her form in a while, but I seem to remember looking at them in a tack room this summer and seeing more than one solid effort on wet tracks at Finger Lakes and then in Ohio.

Trainer Reed Jenkins is a pretty shrewd old fellow and frankly, I'm surprised all of his stock with the exception of one filly has been so disappointing at this meet. So ordinarily, I would just expect this to be the time for him to shine with this old veteran, spotted to win... but...

Likewise, :3: Sun City is pretty much everything I just described, but with a proven affinity for Arizona. Ordinarily her best efforts here have been on the grass and she's not exactly a youngin' anymore herself, but it isn't uncommon for her to get into a spot where she gets things all her own way after a string of lackluster efforts and jump up with a complete reversal.

:7: Lisianski figures to get heavy action and probably is an early problem for my two rooting interests, but I thought her first race here was just SO ugly that I couldn't justify taking her in this spot at a shorter price than either of my two personal favorites.

Anyway, selecting a bit with my heart, but they usually grab the attention of my head at some point to get mixed up in my heart.

[KidCapper]

Race 8- I've landed on the :10: here at a very juicy 10-1 on the line. Takes the blinkers off for a 17% trainer move and goes on the 2 sprints to a route pattern. Bullet work coming in on the 4th. Lots to like at this price.

$20 WP :10:

$1 Trifecta :10: with :3: :9: with all

$1 Trifecta :10: with all with :3: :9:

Good Luck!!


My first real whiff of the day. Next!

[johnhannibalsmith]

My first real whiff of the day. Next!

Well, that was an easy race to whiff on. If I had to be flat wrong, I'm glad to see Kelly B. win it...

[KidCapper]

Race 9- We're going to close out the day with the :3: .

$20 WP :3:

$1 Trifecta :3: with :10: :9: with all

$1 Trifecta :3: with all with :9: :10:

$1 Superfecta :3: with :9: :10: with :9: :10: with all

[johnhannibalsmith]

I can't find a horse that I really like here at all. The :1: , :3: , :9: , and :10: all are obviously live, but for the most part I can't really separate one from the other other than that the :1: seems to be mildly (relatively) under-bet at this point.

My aborted pick 5 (thankfully) would have included that quartet and 4 others that I felt obligated to use - the :2: , :4: , :5: , and :7: .

Just for shins and grits, I'll hypothetically exacta box those four looking for some kind of chaos on the front and some improbably mid-track rallies to get out with some loot. But, I'll be rooting for my old friend Fire Talker.