Underlay/Overlay Exactas

[jerry-g]

Today, Sunday, I could not find a race to bet on. However, the same thing did happen today that happened yesterday and I will get to that in a moment. Yesterday in Gulfstream Park 10th race, I was going to pass the race because my top selection was going off as chalk. I had my mouse on the red X ready to buzz off when I saw something about the #2 horse that interested me. A closer look and I felt like the 2 could possibly win the race. Then I looked at the heavy favorite going off at 4/5 and determined it was indeed a legitimate
favorite. But the 2 was 16-1 and I reasoned that I might make a profit on the day if I put him in. So I did a Lawrence Welk configuration with the 1/2-3 for a $4 bet. The race came in 1-2 and I collected $53.80 and instead of going back to my corner to lick my wounds, I ended up on the day. I noticed the same thing today where the 3 horse was even money and the 2nd place was at 45-1 odds. No matter what, if I had bet that race I would have lost because I did not figure that 45-1. Still, I think I made money by not betting any because Ben Franklin told us a penny saved is a penny earned. I am including a picture to that 16-1 horse yesterday at Gulfstream and I have marked the things that caught my eye and let me use him under the legitimate favorite. Whether you follow my thinking or not you have to realize he came in second. Does anyone else see value in these types of wagers?

[HUSKER55]

my problem with long layoffs is you never know what to expect. consequently I have decided to see what happens.

How do you tell if a horse will fire the first time out after a long layoff?

[Dave Schwartz]

my problem with long layoffs is you never know what to expect. consequently I have decided to see what happens.

What if I told you that horses off 30-40 days won slightly more often that horses back in 7-15 days?

would that change your outlook?


(It is true!)

Get The Book! 12/25/11.

[Fwizard]

plus that trainer had some success with layoff horses, as for the op's question yes this is the only way I play a horse that becomes to low odds wise ...I find two or three longer shots and play straight exactas...Had a nice one come in yesterday at Golden Gate a 2-1 on top of a 35 to 1 paid 62.00 for a $1 ticket these help when all you find is chalk....

[thaskalos]

What if I told you that horses off 30-40 days won slightly more often that horses back in 7-15 days?

would that change your outlook?


(It is true!)

Get The Book! 12/25/11.
What about horses like the one profiled in this thread?

Do horses still hold their own...even after a 10+ month layoff?

A 30-40 day layoff hardly deserves to be called a layoff at all, IMO...given the state of today's game.

[jerry-g]

Here are some other interesting things I have noticed about this 10 month layoff horse. It is an offspring of Seattle Slew. The horse has only six starts but has had 5 different trainers. Its first race was in Canada at Woodbine. After that it came to South Florida and raced at Calder three times before going out West to California to a track owned by the same concerns as Gulfstream. There it raced two races then laid off from January 30th this year. But the works show it W/Os as at Woodbine from 19 Aug to 23 Oct. Then on 19 Nov it began w/o at a place called PMM. I cannot find anything on a track with that designation. I don't think it is Portland Meadows. After that place, it arrived back in South Florida for a good race at Gulfstream. I read some where that a horse needs at least 4-6 weeks to rest up after a hard fought race least they come back with "muscle soreness". Longer distance horses seem to need more time than sprint horses. I believe what says this horse was in good condition was the work outs. I look for how close a horse works out to 12 seconds per furlong. His works surly show he was at that number, meaning what ever put him in the barn in the first place has been worked out. Someone can enlighten me on what PMM stands for and I'll update the records in my situation room. :)

[lamboguy]

What about horses like the one profiled in this thread?

Do horses still hold their own...even after a 10+ month layoff?

A 30-40 day layoff hardly deserves to be called a layoff at all, IMO...given the state of today's game.those people that wait that long to enter their horses enter the best horse in the right spots. if the horse is sub par he doesn't get entered. that is called padding their statistics so they can rob their owners on the day money.

[iceknight]

here is my (redboard) take on it. I liked Picaslew (mainly because of Luis Contreras on board) so I bet that one to W & S. I also liked Indulgence but that one failed to fire. I really really liked Pomeroys pistol based on class, but I didnt like the odds so I didnt bet. I didn't bet any exacta because I thought Indulgence would win, Pomeroy's would come 2nd and Picaslew would weaken to third after leading.. I made 0.40 cents profit. lol.

The layoff angle is always tricky, I am still clueless but usually base it on jockey and workout cred.

[pondman]

Whether you follow my thinking or not you have to realize he came in second. Does anyone else see value in these types of wagers?

The horse had everything going for it, was ready to run, and should have been bet to win. Cover it in the second spot if you must, but this type of horse makes a nice win bet overtime.

Forget about all the speed numbers and comments. Consider what Terra Di Siena did-- they found a soft spot for that horse.

I'd stay off a 4/5 shot period, in any combo. What if Pica had won? You be on here telling us for another $4 you would have had a $300 exacta.

[pondman]

Do horses still hold their own...even after a 10+ month layoff?

A 30-40 day layoff hardly deserves to be called a layoff at all, IMO...given the state of today's game.

This is typical on the high end of racing with high dollar horses. It was pointed and ready. Many time these horses drown the field. Don't mistake this style of play with the handicapping of a claiming race.

My best bet in the last year was a J. Moss horse with a 10 month layoff. It paid a huge amount.

[Spiderman]

I liked Pica Slew because of watching videos of her three races at Calder. Noted that she won easily and has good confirmation/built like a speed horse.

Though I figured Pica to control the pace, she broke slow and that took her off her game. When I bet exacta, Pica over Pomeroy's and reverse, the prices were 68/48. Lucky to get the photo by a nose for place.

[Grits]

Then on 19 Nov it began w/o at a place called PMM. I cannot find anything on a track with that designation. I don't think it is Portland Meadows. After that place, it arrived back in South Florida for a good race at Gulfstream. I read some where that a horse needs at least 4-6 weeks to rest up after a hard fought race least they come back with "muscle soreness". Longer distance horses seem to need more time than sprint horses. I believe what says this horse was in good condition was the work outs. I look for how close a horse works out to 12 seconds per furlong. His works surly show he was at that number, meaning what ever put him in the barn in the first place has been worked out. Someone can enlighten me on what PMM stands for and I'll update the records in my situation room. :)

PMM is Palm Meadows Training Center. Frank's state of the art training facility.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/horsemen/palm-meadows

[misscashalot]

http://www.equibase.com/tracks/training.cfm

[jerry-g]

PMM is Palm Meadows Training Center. Frank's state of the art training facility.

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/horsemen/palm-meadows

Thanks for the link and pictures of such a beautiful place for horses to train. No wonder this horse did so well after running on a surface similar to Gulfstream Parks surfaces. :ThmbUp:

Also my thanks to misscashalot for that link as well.