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jerry-g
12-08-2011, 08:38 AM
DRF provides us with a PDF document outlining the purse value index. I keep it on my desktop. My question is suppose we have an allowance race at Gulfstream Park and a horse is shipping in from Churchill Downs. Both race classes are the same. Since Churchill is at 52 index and Gulfstream is at 41, is the Churchill horse perhaps dropping in class? Lets say purse wise both races are Allowance 50K. I like the index because it helps me know the caliber of the track I'm dealing with. It goes from a low of 7 at Yavapai Downs to a high of 73 at Monmouth Park.

Robert Goren
12-08-2011, 08:50 AM
The index that list Mth as the highest was no doubt based on the 2010 meet. You find it a lot lower for the 2011 meet. While these kinds of things are useful, you have be really careful about putting too much weight on them. Slot money has screwed these kind of lists up.

jerry-g
12-08-2011, 09:31 AM
The index that list Mth as the highest was no doubt based on the 2010 meet. You find it a lot lower for the 2011 meet. While these kinds of things are useful, you have be really careful about putting too much weight on them. Slot money has screwed these kind of lists up.

Yes! It is for the 2010 meet. I thought the 2011 would not be out till next year?

pondman
12-08-2011, 12:26 PM
Since Churchill is at 52 index and Gulfstream is at 41, is the Churchill horse perhaps dropping in class? .

Be carefull with this. Some tracks are a freeway for millionaires and billionaires who routinely drop horses on an unsuspecting crowd. I've look at this and I personally do not see a Churchill to Gulfstream connection, at least nothing worth playing daily. I think there are better spots for horses looking for a soft allowance race, rather than shipping to Florida.

Turkoman
12-08-2011, 06:50 PM
DRF provides us with a PDF document outlining the purse value index. I keep it on my desktop. My question is suppose we have an allowance race at Gulfstream Park and a horse is shipping in from Churchill Downs. Both race classes are the same. Since Churchill is at 52 index and Gulfstream is at 41, is the Churchill horse perhaps dropping in class? Lets say purse wise both races are Allowance 50K. I like the index because it helps me know the caliber of the track I'm dealing with. It goes from a low of 7 at Yavapai Downs to a high of 73 at Monmouth Park.

Not necessarily. A lot of the tracks with slots offer inflated purses, but the quality of the horses is sub-par.

Dave Schwartz
12-08-2011, 08:14 PM
IMHO, using purses to decide upon track class is a pure waste of time.

It is a function of what tracks have to pay in order to draw horses and horsemen, rather than the quality of horse.

castaway01
12-08-2011, 08:19 PM
IMHO, using purses to decide upon track class is a pure waste of time.

It is a function of what tracks have to pay in order to draw horses and horsemen, rather than the quality of horse.

The slot money also inflated some tracks' purses without necessarily improving the quality of horse running there by the same degree. That and the idea you mentioned together took away any use in comparing tracks by purses.

jerry-g
12-08-2011, 11:09 PM
I really did not want to imply that I use those purse value numbers in any way in my handicapping. Rather, I needed something I could refer to that lets me know what is available to bet. If I'm in the mood for looking at value in a 2500 claiming race or if I prefer a 50K allowance race, the form gives me a good idea where to go. That said, I would like to quote from Steven Davidowitz book on Betting Thoroughbreds..."For all the wrong reasons, major-track handicappers tend to have a snobbish attitude toward their compatriots at the minors, thinking perhaps that the cheaper racing is less formful. I can assure you, however, that there are more winning players per capita at "bull ring" tracks like Charles Town than there are at Aqueduct or Hollywood Park."

pondman
12-09-2011, 12:18 AM
IMHO, using purses to decide upon track class is a pure waste of time.

It is a function of what tracks have to pay in order to draw horses and horsemen, rather than the quality of horse.

??? Not sure...

Higher paying purses, including allowance and stake races, builds the class level of a track as a whole. This means the owner of the last place finisher of an Allowance 50,000 at an A level track can be shopped around at an inferior track for a soft allowance race. Wait until you see what NY horses do to the surrounding tracks in the next year.

The B level track will have inferior allowance races not only because of the purse levels, but because there are fewer allowance races and therefore fewer allowance quality horses, resulting in the out of town millionaires with the low percentage jockeys and unknown trainers dominating the locals in allowance races.

What the OP has pointed to: Churchill to Gulfstream, doesn't have enough of this type of activity. IMO there isn't enough of a quality difference between the tracks. There are better spots for horses leaving Churchill and looking for soft spots..

Dave Schwartz
12-09-2011, 02:23 AM
Higher paying purses, including allowance and stake races, builds the class level of a track as a whole.

Well, Pondman, we'll have to agree to disagree.

From what I have seen, based upon the speeds they run, it simply doesn't work that way.

rubicon55
12-09-2011, 12:00 PM
Well, Pondman, we'll have to agree to disagree.

From what I have seen, based upon the speeds they run, it simply doesn't work that way.

Dave, I agree with you. The purse sizes are not relevant but the conditions of the race are relevant as pointed out in James Quinn classic study "The handicappers condition book" which helps to dispel this discrepancy about purse values versus class.

Dave Schwartz
12-09-2011, 12:50 PM
Rubicon,

The concept behind purse values is (obviously) to help with shippers.

I just do not see how one can assume that a 15% drop in purse value equates to a 15% drop in class when there are so many other variables involved.

It is just as flawed as comparing a statebred race to a non-statebred race at the same track, at the same claiming level and assuming that the statebred race is a higher class race because it has a higher purse.

For almost three decades Avg Purse Value has been overrated as a factor. Howard Sartin used to say that it produced over 80% of the winners in the top 5 and was a great contender selector, when the truth is more like 72%.



Dave

jerry-g
12-09-2011, 06:49 PM
Rubicon,

The concept behind purse values is (obviously) to help with shippers.

I just do not see how one can assume that a 15% drop in purse value equates to a 15% drop in class when there are so many other variables involved.

It is just as flawed as comparing a statebred race to a non-statebred race at the same track, at the same claiming level and assuming that the statebred race is a higher class race because it has a higher purse.

For almost three decades Avg Purse Value has been overrated as a factor. Howard Sartin used to say that it produced over 80% of the winners in the top 5 and was a great contender selector, when the truth is more like 72%.



Dave

Interestingly...Today at Tampa Bay Downs, Race 4, a 5K Claiming, the 12 horse was shipping in from Monmouth Park and its last race was a 5K claimer and it finished next to last there 15.5 lengths behind. Today at Tampa, he comes in first going off at 15-1 odds and paying $32.40 per $2 win ticket.

The BRIS folks said it would be a surprise....well...duh.

Dave Schwartz
12-09-2011, 07:09 PM
And this proves something?

iwearpurple
12-09-2011, 10:45 PM
Interestingly...Today at Tampa Bay Downs, Race 4, a 5K Claiming, the 12 horse was shipping in from Monmouth Park and its last race was a 5K claimer and it finished next to last there 15.5 lengths behind. Today at Tampa, he comes in first going off at 15-1 odds and paying $32.40 per $2 win ticket.

The BRIS folks said it would be a surprise....well...duh.

Did you bet it?

jerry-g
12-09-2011, 10:57 PM
Actually in my last post, I hit the quote button instead of reply. I'm still new here. I was not replying to anything that Dave had said previously. My only thought was show how we cannot take comments made by our providers about "would be a surprise" or "others appear more likely" as I have seen horses with these comments win the race. It was not posted to prove anything just for discussion. No I did not bet the race. I only noticed it when I was checking the winners at the track. I look at winners to see if they have something I usually miss and if so, I make note of it.

Dave Schwartz
12-09-2011, 11:09 PM
Thanks, Jerry.

BTW, I think you said you've been gone from racing for awhile. What are your impressions since you've been gone? How have things changed? (And when did you stop playing?)

Dave

bob60566
12-09-2011, 11:28 PM
I really did not want to imply that I use those purse value numbers in any way in my handicapping. Rather, I needed something I could refer to that lets me know what is available to bet. If I'm in the mood for looking at value in a 2500 claiming race or if I prefer a 50K allowance race, the form gives me a good idea where to go. That said, I would like to quote from Steven Davidowitz book on Betting Thoroughbreds..."For all the wrong reasons, major-track handicappers tend to have a snobbish attitude toward their compatriots at the minors, thinking perhaps that the cheaper racing is less formful. I can assure you, however, that there are more winning players per capita at "bull ring" tracks like Charles Town than there are at Aqueduct or Hollywood Park."

Glad somebody else has the same thoughts.

This is sure to add comment

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

jerry-g
12-09-2011, 11:30 PM
I've been gone from visiting the OTB Ocala Breeder Sales for years but have been handicapping via computer at home. The AW track surface for me is the biggest new challenge for me. I have noticed that when today's track is AW, then horses in the race that have been successful racing on that surface, usually are the ITM ones. It may be too soon to make judgements on this surface but as we know, horses prefer a certain surface and seem to do better when they feel comfortable.

RXB
12-10-2011, 02:04 PM
Using purse values to compare race/track classes is sort of like using raw times to compare speed across all tracks and surfaces. No thanks.

Dave Schwartz
12-10-2011, 02:37 PM
Using purse values to compare race/track classes is sort of like using raw times to compare speed across all tracks and surfaces.

Great analogy.