CT cuts takeout, increases handle

[k f]

Charles Town's handle is doing quite well since they cut takeout on September 17. All of these numbers are 2011 vs. the corresponding day in 2010. Fortunately the individual pools actually do add up to within a few dollars of the total handle reported in the charts. The wagering menu is nearly identical in both years, with the only change other than the takeout reduction being the placement of p3s and p4s on the rare 10-race card. The number of p3s and p4s stayed the same. All of their bigger race days stayed in the same spot on the calendar.

Total Handle

Sept pre-cut: -10%
Sept post-cut: -6%
October: +5%
November: +12%

WPS

Sept pre-cut: -10%
Sept post-cut: -8%
October: +3%
November: +16%

Exacta

Sept pre-cut: -13%
Sept post-cut: -8%
October: +1%
November: +5%

Double

Sept pre-cut: +15%
Sept post-cut: +1%
October: +17%
November: +33%

Trifecta

Sept pre-cut: -15%
Sept post-cut: -7%
October: +2%
November: +7%

Superfecta

Sept pre-cut: -6%
Sept post-cut: +4%
October: +12%
November: +18%

P3

Sept pre-cut: +9%
Sept post-cut: -4%
October: +26%
November: +20%

P4

Sept pre-cut: +65%
Sept post-cut: +17%
October: +55%
November: +78%

[lamboguy]

how many races a day did c-town card a year ago?

[k f]

CT does nine races 99% of the time, with a few 10-race cards in November/December. All months but November have identical numbers of races in this study. November 2011 had 193 races vs. 187 for November 2010.

[ukbro00]

Can you share the specifictakeout reductions? Just curious to see if the increase in handle made up for the decrease in takeout.

[cj]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/64943/charles-town-cuts-takeout-12-on-some-wagers

"Zimny said reductions in takeout for win, place, show, daily double, and exacta wagers—something that had been discussed earlier—will hinge on how the lower rate for the other exotic bets affects handle."

I guess we should expect those cuts any day now then!

[Charli125]

Can you share the specifictakeout reductions? Just curious to see if the increase in handle made up for the decrease in takeout.

My numbers are different from the ones posted here so I've pm'd the author to see if we can figure out what the difference is.

Just spoke with k f and he used comparable days and the Equibase charts. My data uses all days and HDW data. Like I explain below, they lead to the same conclusions.

Both results set show what usually happens with a takeout decrease. The takeout decrease doesn't work instantly. Once people start winning more often, and talking about it, the handle responds. In all of the bets where takeout was lowered by 12% you see an increase in handle of over 12% representing an increase in total takeout.

Another thing to remember is that both Sep periods have the same number of days. In Oct there were 3 fewer racing days this year and in Nov there was 1 more racing day than last year. I didn't look at comparable days because I think that's one way to cloud the numbers. If you look at totals then you're accurately comparing year to year no matter what happened to racing days.

Total Handle

Sept pre-cut: -6%
Sept post-cut: -8%
October: -11%
November: +19%

WPS

Sept pre-cut: -6%
Sept post-cut: -10%
October: -12%
November: +23%

Exacta

Sept pre-cut: -10%
Sept post-cut: -10%
October: -15%
November: +12%

Double

Sept pre-cut: +19%
Sept post-cut: +1%
October: EVEN
November: +42%

Trifecta

Sept pre-cut: -11%
Sept post-cut: -10%
October: -14%
November: +14%

Superfecta

Sept pre-cut: -1%
Sept post-cut: EVEN
October: -3%
November: +25%

P3

Sept pre-cut: +16%
Sept post-cut: -7%
October: +11%
November: +29%

P4

Sept pre-cut: +59%
Sept post-cut: +20%
October: +34%
November: +90%

I've also added an additional category which is Sep 1 through the end of November. At the end of the day, the racetrack lowers takeout so that they'll have a handle increase which brings in more revenue.

So with 2 fewer days this year handle is even. I would expect that this is a huge success for CT so far.

WPS +1%
EXA -4%
DD +17%
TRI -4%
SPR +7%
P3 +14%
P4 +52%
Total Even

[proximity]

very impressive, ESPECIALLY since a lot of charles town's handle comes from players getting rebates.

[njcurveball]

Without average field size the numbers can not be matched up. Please include that.

[cj]

Without average field size the numbers can not be matched up. Please include that.

I don't think you are going to find much difference. Field size has been pretty solid at CT for a few years now.

[Charli125]

Without average field size the numbers can not be matched up. Please include that.
Valid question. Here you go.

Time Period 2010 2011 Delta % Delta
Sept pre-cut: 8.18 8.31 0.13 1.6%
Sept post-cut: 8.34 8.46 0.12 1.4%
October: 8.75 8.37 (0.38) -4.3%
November: 8.54 8.64 0.10 1.2%
Sep 1 - Nov 30: 8.5 8.47 (0.03) -0.4%
Statistically, it's even.

[classhandicapper]

The next step is to determine if the bottom line to the track is higher (lower take x higher handle) and whether the handle is partly up at the expense of other tracks. If some of it is coming out the hide of other tracks, then if those other tracks followed suit and lowered their take, the net of all of it is a big nothing.

[Charli125]

The next step is to determine if the bottom line to the track is higher (lower take x higher handle) and whether the handle is partly up at the expense of other tracks. If some of it is coming out the hide of other tracks, then if those other tracks followed suit and lowered their take, the net of all of it is a big nothing.

Pardon the tables being off. I can't figure out how to get them to line up.

Without knowing a lot more information than we have, we can't calculate takeout kept by the track. We can however, calculate total takeout which gives us a good idea when looking at percentages.

2010 2011 Delta %Delta
$2,721,140 $2,733,873 $12,733 0.47%
$2,828,865 $2,705,003 ($123,862) -4.38%
$2,990,221 $2,530,999 ($459,221) -15.36%
$1,151,079 $1,084,043 ($67,036) -5.82%
$274,819 $320,938 $46,119 16.78%
$162,079 $162,467 $388 0.24%
$172,952 $231,961 $59,010 34.12%
$10,301,154 $9,769,284 ($531,870) -5.16%


So total takeout is down 5%. That's pretty damn good given that it's less than 3 months in.

Let's look at total takeout by Month though.
Time Period 2010 2011 Delta %Delta
September $3,716,652.96 $3,277,638.93 ($439,014.03) -11.81%
October $3,267,999.90 $2,759,976.50 ($508,023.41) -15.55%
November $3,316,500.72 $3,731,668.24 $415,167.52 12.52%

Total takeout started out down, that's to be expected. In November total takeout was up 12.5%. That's much quicker than expected. Basically the takeout decrease is already showing a positive net takeout result.

There's no way to determine if it's flowing from another track, and I'd like to respond to your conclusion. When net takeout rates, across all tracks, go down, handle increases. That's because players have more money to spend. They'll spend more, they'll last longer, and handle will go up. Net takeout will also go up as we get closer to optimal takeout because, that's what optimal takeout is.

In my opinion, Net takeout will make even bigger gains once we create winners, advertise those winners, and bring new players to the game.

[Charli125]

The first table shows WPS, EXA, TRI, SPR, DD, P3, P4, and Total Handle for the Sep 1 - Nov 30 period.