Top Beyers a Thing of the Past

[classhandicapper]

http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-top-beyer-figures-thing-past

[Delta Cone]

The article points out what has been obvious to many, but fails to give any explanation or theories as to why Beyer figs have dropped off a cliff of late.

"What I found out was the Beyer Figures by the top stakes horses were relatively similar from 1992 to 2005. And then it all started to slow down."

Why would this happen? Perhaps the problem isn't the horses, but the figure makers?

[cj]

The article points out what has been obvious to many, but fails to give any explanation or theories as to why Beyer figs have dropped off a cliff of late.

"What I found out was the Beyer Figures by the top stakes horses were relatively similar from 1992 to 2005. And then it all started to slow down."

Why would this happen? Perhaps the problem isn't the horses, but the figure makers?

It is some of both I think. We sold A LOT of our better horseflesh to overseas interests. That has to be having an effect. I also think our horses are babied too much now and aren't capable of running as well as often. Top athletes maintain peak condition by staying in competition. I know there are many theories about why our horses can't last any longer, so I'm not getting into that. But what I do know is that if you can't train hard and compete regularly, you aren't going to produce maximum results.

All that said, I think there are some problems with the Beyer figures as well. I'm not saying I have all the answers, but they are based on a system developed what, 40 years ago? Go back and read the original "Picking Winners" and think about the speed charts and how they were derived. Think the method is really the best we can do?

Maiden, claiming, and allowance horses are, more or less, about as fast now as they were 5, 10, 20 years ago. But the top stakes horses are appreciably slower.

I also don't think he has adjusted properly with regards to claiming horses at slots tracks, which has an effect on the better horse's numbers.

[classhandicapper]

CJ is doing a lot more work on this than I am, but I have to agree with him that there are probably some issues with most speed figures over and above any possible decline of the horses.

The explanation for slower figures on synthetic tracks has been fairly obvious to me, but it's possible there has also been some shift in the "average" relationship between sprints and routes because of the accent on speed over stamina in breeding.

To be honest, it doesn't make perfect sense to me that even if part of the explanation is smaller crops, sending some of the best horses overseas, no steroids, etc.. that those things would only impact the very best Grade 1 horses. I would have guessed there would be a more even downward shift in the averages.

I am also starting to think that the relationship between classes across circuits is breaking down a little. Some of this stuff has been based on the idea that the average 10K claimer is a 10K claimer no matter where you go. That was probably never exactly true, but I think that sort of thing is becoming less and less true. I'm seeing a lot of very strange things among shippers lately.

[proximity]

I know drugs - legal, less legal, and illegal - will be a popular answer. I don't know how to quantify that, but I am open to suggestions.


the above is a quote from mr jerardi's article and i will give him a suggestion: modern juice brings the horses closer together.

horses can only run so fast.

and cj is right. mr jerardi and beyer associates are using dated information. possibly (due to modern juice helping horses not to decelerate as rapidly) in these last 40 years (and especially in this last decade) the gap (in time) between 2500 and 25000 claimers is narrowing...... but beyer associates is still using the same values for beaten lengths and fifths of a second. this obviously will tighten the range of your figures.

one other thing i will point out is that in the earlier years of beyer numbers it is my opinion that the gap between the pars for male and female races was too small. overtime it seems that he has (correctly,despite juice) widened this gap, lowering female pars, and therefore lowering all figures.

[classhandicapper]

I wonder if small changes in the make up of dirt surfaces have also "tightened the range" between the top and bottom?

We've seen how that kind of thing can happen on turf and synthetic.

I don't have any specific knowledge, but I've read reports that years ago dirt cushions weren't as deep and that there was more clay and less sand in the mix. Maybe the push to make dirt surfaces safer and dry out quicker has been a small contributing factor.

[HUSKER55]

I think classhandicapper is on the right track. Time is time and math doesn't change. 60 seconds is still 60 seconds. Formulas are still formulas. Plus the push to control drugs has probably had an impact as well.

[Cholly]

I wonder if Ragozin or Thorograph numbers likewise show a significant drop-off in figures earned by the top handicap horses over the past five years…

[PurplePower]

I know drugs - legal, less legal, and illegal - will be a popular answer. I don't know how to quantify that, but I am open to suggestions.


the above is a quote from mr jerardi's article and i will give him a suggestion: modern juice brings the horses closer together.

horses can only run so fast.

and cj is right. mr jerardi and beyer associates are using dated information. possibly (due to modern juice helping horses not to decelerate as rapidly) in these last 40 years .............

Wow! I've been hearing all year that racing needs to do away with Lasix because it is a "performance enhancer" but our horses are running slower? And now I learn that our horses are running slower because of "modern juice". I guess I'll have to warn students in my Trainers' Exam Prep Classes to stop pouring apple juice on their horses' oats.

[bob60566]

Wow! I've been hearing all year that racing needs to do away with Lasix because it is a "performance enhancer" but our horses are running slower? And now I learn that our horses are running slower because of "modern juice". I guess I'll have to warn students in my Trainers' Exam Prep Classes to stop pouring apple juice on their horses' oats..

Intresting comments so how can you tell your students what horses are running on raceday Meds.
Mac:confused:

[Handiman]

This is a bit of expounding CJ's comments. I look at his comment about babying with interest. This whole subject is akin to Baseball Pitchers it seems to me.

Back in the old days it wasn't unusual for a pitcher to pitch a complete game nearly every time he went to the mound. And there are numerous times when one pitcher actually pitched both games of a double header. Now days a starter gets paid millions and if he makes it to the 5th inning the manager is thrilled with him. What the hell?

My point is all games seem to go through operational changes and not all of them for the better. The condition of the stock, the track surface and hell maybe even the weather all seems to combine and make things different.

Anyway that is the extent of my ramblings tonight.

Handi:)

[cj's dad]

This is a bit of expounding CJ's comments. I look at his comment about babying with interest. This whole subject is akin to Baseball Pitchers it seems to me.

Back in the old days it wasn't unusual for a pitcher to pitch a complete game nearly every time he went to the mound. And there are numerous times when one pitcher actually pitched both games of a double header. Now days a starter gets paid millions and if he makes it to the 5th inning the manager is thrilled with him. What the hell?

My point is all games seem to go through operational changes and not all of them for the better. The condition of the stock, the track surface and hell maybe even the weather all seems to combine and make things different.

Anyway that is the extent of my ramblings tonight.

Handi:)

Your analogy is spot on.

Jim Palmer in '75-'76'-'77 had 25-23-22 CG's. No one does that anymore.

I have posted several times that IMO horses are undertrained and pampered way too much. Inconsistency is to be expected. I remember when it was common for a T'bred to run every 14-21 days. Not now, ever.

[Cholly]

When I attempt cross-generational comparisons, I reference a subject on which I’m personally familiar: high school basketball. Forty years ago I was no star but a decent enough player at that level. But when I go to watch the locals today, I am flabbergasted.

These kids are faster, stronger, better dribblers, better shooters, and more athletic in every way than those from my era. But more pointed, they play at a faster tempo and at an intensity level that would hardly have been imagined in 1970. Even the star from my team would have been a bench rider in high school basketball today.

I’m sure part of it is better nutrition and health consciousness of young athletes today. Some of it is the kids’ increased access to viewing great performers of their craft. But much results from improved training/coaching that is applied more consistently across the board. Coaches have better access to proven “best-practice” training methodologies, and more often their continued employment is linked to short-term performance. They set the bar higher, and are more efficient in eliciting extreme performance. More is demanded of high-school athletes today, and some are finding ways to fulfill those expectations.

Basketball isn’t racing, and people aren’t horses—but I believe there is correlation regarding increased performance. To me, it would defy logic to doubt that today’s horses aren’t better fed, better medicated, and more consistently trained in a way to elicit maximum performance. More is expected of them, and some of them are finding ways to meet those expectations. But concomitant is the sad fact that the physical frame of horses is being asked to perform at intensity levels they can not fulfill; ergo the shortened careers and dropping number of starts per year.

I come down on the side that the dropping Beyers is more a measurement-issue, and less a performance one. But it’s puzzling that this phenomenon appeared so pointedly six years ago, not earlier.

[forced89]

And there are numerous times when one pitcher actually pitched both games of a double header. Now days a starter gets paid millions and if he makes it to the 5th inning the manager is thrilled with him. What the hell?


Handi:)

I remember as a kid watching Don Newcomb of the Dodgers pitch both games of a double header against the Phillies. Actually they took him out with a lead after pitching 7 innings in the first game to give him a longer rest between games.

[proximity]

Wow! I've been hearing all year that racing needs to do away with Lasix because it is a "performance enhancer" but our horses are running slower? And now I learn that our horses are running slower because of "modern juice". I guess I'll have to warn students in my Trainers' Exam Prep Classes to stop pouring apple juice on their horses' oats.

where in my post did i say juice is making horses run slower?

i said that it is moving up slower horses relatively more than it is moving up better horses and that this is bringing pars and variants closer together. so if you're using the old par figures, classier horses will adjust downward and cheaper horses will adjust upward. ie. in raw time juice trainers can move forward a horse that runs 6f in 1:12 a lot more than they can move horses that run 1:09s.

[RunForTheRoses]

Didn't Beyer have Secretariat's Belmont at a 136? That was in 73. I believe on TG the figures were getting faster, really fast where some horses who were not household names were running giant numbers. I don't know about since 2005.
The foal rate being down and as CJ mentioned many of the best bloodlines were sent overseas, and synth would be the most likely culprits.

[proximity]

I guess I'll have to warn students in my Trainers' Exam Prep Classes to stop pouring apple juice on their horses' oats.

was joe woodard in your class?

if he was you could have warned him about juice before he made the move to penn national, where this dominant kentucky trainer is an average 14%.

last friday's 3rd at pen is a perfect example. in that race mr woodard ran a horse with the top figures in the race that he had just claimed off jamie ness. he beat one horse in a race won by a stephanie beattie runner. btw, congratulations to the "partnership" for running 2nd in that one!!

[PurplePower]

Intresting comments so how can you tell your students what horses are running on raceday Meds.
Mac:confused:

Bob, my comments were a bit satirical. If Beyer Speed Figures are a measure of speed and our best horses are running 10 points slower then the argument that lasix is used strictly as a performance enhancer is not supported by declining BSF's.

Proximity suggested that the declining BSF's were from the "modern juice" that trainers are giving their horses helping horses to not slow down as much. That argument suggests that
1. ALL horses are getting the "modern juice", but it only helps the trailing horses to "not decelerate" as fast or we would still see the larger margins;
2. Only the trailing horses are getting the "MJ" suggesting that the "lower end trainers" (they train most of the slowest horses do they not) have the money to afford the "MJ".
3. Even the "modern juice" can't help our horses run faster, but only confuses figure makers.
4. I agree with "Prox" that at some point we can't make a horse run any faster than its genetic ability. However, that implies that a 1:14 six furlong horse can be turned into a 1:11 horse, but a 1:09 horse can only be improved to 1:08. I doubt Even the MJ can make that much improvement in a 1:14 horse if that horse's genetic MaX is say 1:13.

When I read Prox's post I had just seen one of those "Good thing I had my orange juice this morning" commercials. I was going to use "OJ" as the modern juice, but I'm not sure racehorses would like OJ so I switched to apple juice.

In the Trainers Exam Prep I teach the rules of racing for the states represented by students attending that particular class. In most of those jurisdictions, the ONLY medication that may be ADMINISTERED on raceday is Lasix (Salix). Some allow "adjunct bleeder meds" (some of those states currently are considering proposed rules to drop adjuncts since recent research showed adjuncts did not improve control of EIPH over Lasix alone). Florida did allow prednisone to be administered on race day. Bute is allowed in a horse's system (most states are in process of implementing model rule to reduce the threshold amount from 5 mg/ml to 2mg/ml). By rule, Bute is supposed to be given no closer than 24 hours from post time.

In Philosophy & Methods class I talk about therapeutic medications as part of the Injuries & Therapy section. We discuss advantages, disadvantages and withdrawal times. I tell them, "if your veterinarian gives your horse the wrong medication, too much of the right medication or medication too close to the withdrawal time and your horse gets a "bad test", YOU (the trainer) will be the one fined and suspended". (I add that they will also be discussed on Pace Advantage as just another one of the horrible people that train racehorses.)

Didn't mean to confuse you Bob :) I hope this didn't just stir muddy water.

[PurplePower]

where in my post did i say juice is making horses run slower?

i said that it is moving up slower horses relatively more than it is moving up better horses and that this is bringing pars and variants closer together. so if you're using the old par figures, classier horses will adjust downward and cheaper horses will adjust upward. ie. in raw time juice trainers can move forward a horse that runs 6f in 1:12 a lot more than they can move horses that run 1:09s.

I was writing my post when you posted this Prox. And, (in point 4) I agree with your philosophy here. However, the article was about the fact that our "best horses" are running slower (as evidenced by the speed figures). Again, I was satirizing that the reason for giving a horse any kind of "juice" would be to help it run faster and yet the speed figures were suggesting they are running slower.

I don't think the good horses are running that much slower. Goodness, a 2-year old just set a track record at Gulfstream Park. I think we need to look at the figure making rather than implying that our good horses of today are 10 to 20 points slower than those of yesterday. Agree?

[PurplePower]

was joe woodard in your class?

if he was you could have warned him about juice before he made the move to penn national, where this dominant kentucky trainer is an average 14%.

last friday's 3rd at pen is a perfect example. in that race mr woodard ran a horse with the top figures in the race that he had just claimed off jamie ness. he beat one horse in a race won by a stephanie beattie runner. btw, congratulations to the "partnership" for running 2nd in that one!!

No, Joe was not in my class :D You suggesting he doesn't shop at the right grocery store in Grantville?

(Definitely, congratulations on running second!)

[proximity]

I don't think the good horses are running that much slower. Goodness, a 2-year old just set a track record at Gulfstream Park. I think we need to look at the figure making rather than implying that our good horses of today are 10 to 20 points slower than those of yesterday. Agree?

yes, in raw times i'd say that good horses probably are running a bit better, but the cheaper horses are (relatively) running a lot better. so in terms of beyer points, these extreme classes of horses are now closer together. the "problem" (for historical comparison purposes) is that there are a lot more of these cheaper races so their historical par figure will hardly move at all, while the stakes par figure will of course decline. we don't see jerardi writing that 5000 claimers rarely run 70s do we?

[Dark Horse]

I don't think the good horses are running that much slower. Goodness, a 2-year old just set a track record at Gulfstream Park. I think we need to look at the figure making rather than implying that our good horses of today are 10 to 20 points slower than those of yesterday. Agree?

Exactly my thought.

As to Beyers, you can just see the horses think... "MUD?! WHOOHOOO! TIME TO ROAR, BABY!"

The measuring of speed in horse racing borders on absurd to me. All I want is an actual time, the precise distance run (for 3 wide, 4 wide, etc), and a precise friction factor for the track (or parts of the track) for the time of the race. How hard could that be? Put a chip in one of the front hooves and that should do it.

(As a general guideline the speed of natural progress is always held back by the establishment, which stands to lose the most from new and improved ways)

[proximity]

No, Joe was not in my class :D You suggesting he doesn't shop at the right grocery store in Grantville?


any other time of the year i would be, but not when i'm trying to get invited to the horseman's christmas party. maybe i'll get woodard's name in the gift exchange? should i wear my orange tux or my blue?:)

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR7FNHXpWJApmut7r0kALMsT_smdq3MN 7KkHL03F3_AhTqkJdVtuV001Ok (http://www.costumesofnashua.com/CNWebSite105/Active905/Pages/CostumeRental/Austin60s70s/Pics%20Austin1970s/AustinDumbJC.jpg)

[proximity]

But ultimately, Patrick Cunningham had exactly the right idea. The best way to compare horses from generation to generation is through using accurate performance figures, since their whole purpose is to compare horses which run on different days, over different tracks. The one caveat is this: you can’t do it with figures that use claiming pars that anchor the data base in place by ASSUMING that the breed does not improve over time. That becomes a self fulfilling prophecy by definition—if you decide the claimers can’t improve (particularly ridiculous given the move-up trainers), the figures for the stake horses can only improve if they get better RELATIVE to the claimers.

the above is an interesting quote from thorograph's jerry brown taken from an article called are racehorses getting faster part 2 that is posted on his website www.thorograph.com (http://www.thorograph.com) . interesting parts in my horseman's christmas party tux colors of orange and blue. :)

[classhandicapper]

Your analogy is spot on.

Jim Palmer in '75-'76'-'77 had 25-23-22 CG's. No one does that anymore.

I have posted several times that IMO horses are undertrained and pampered way too much. Inconsistency is to be expected. I remember when it was common for a T'bred to run every 14-21 days. Not now, ever.

There must have been time when baseball statisticians looked at how many pitchers were turning out like Palmer and how many were developing premature arm problems from all the starts and completions (pitch counts etc..) and concluded they were better off missing a few Palmers to keep a fewer of the others around longer.

I think the analogy is perfect though.

I suspect little has been done along the same lines to evaluate optimizing horse performance or duration of career. I think it's mostly observation.

My view is that harder work creates a quicker and higher peak but wears the horse down faster and increases the probability of injury.

Zenyatta might actually be a pretty good test case. They went soft on her as far as shipping, finding tough spots, spacing etc... goes and she held her form for a long time. But they used to really crank up the speed and toughness of her workouts just before the Breeder's Cup to try to get a peak.

[bob60566]

Bob, my comments were a bit satirical. If Beyer Speed Figures are a measure of speed and our best horses are running 10 points slower then the argument that lasix is used strictly as a performance enhancer is not supported by declining BSF's.

Proximity suggested that the declining BSF's were from the "modern juice" that trainers are giving their horses helping horses to not slow down as much. That argument suggests that
1. ALL horses are getting the "modern juice", but it only helps the trailing horses to "not decelerate" as fast or we would still see the larger margins;
2. Only the trailing horses are getting the "MJ" suggesting that the "lower end trainers" (they train most of the slowest horses do they not) have the money to afford the "MJ".
3. Even the "modern juice" can't help our horses run faster, but only confuses figure makers.
4. I agree with "Prox" that at some point we can't make a horse run any faster than its genetic ability. However, that implies that a 1:14 six furlong horse can be turned into a 1:11 horse, but a 1:09 horse can only be improved to 1:08. I doubt Even the MJ can make that much improvement in a 1:14 horse if that horse's genetic MaX is say 1:13.

When I read Prox's post I had just seen one of those "Good thing I had my orange juice this morning" commercials. I was going to use "OJ" as the modern juice, but I'm not sure racehorses would like OJ so I switched to apple juice.

In the Trainers Exam Prep I teach the rules of racing for the states represented by students attending that particular class. In most of those jurisdictions, the ONLY medication that may be ADMINISTERED on raceday is Lasix (Salix). Some allow "adjunct bleeder meds" (some of those states currently are considering proposed rules to drop adjuncts since recent research showed adjuncts did not improve control of EIPH over Lasix alone). Florida did allow prednisone to be administered on race day. Bute is allowed in a horse's system (most states are in process of implementing model rule to reduce the threshold amount from 5 mg/ml to 2mg/ml). By rule, Bute is supposed to be given no closer than 24 hours from post time.

In Philosophy & Methods class I talk about therapeutic medications as part of the Injuries & Therapy section. We discuss advantages, disadvantages and withdrawal times. I tell them, "if your veterinarian gives your horse the wrong medication, too much of the right medication or medication too close to the withdrawal time and your horse gets a "bad test", YOU (the trainer) will be the one fined and suspended". (I add that they will also be discussed on Pace Advantage as just another one of the horrible people that train racehorses.)

Didn't mean to confuse you Bob :) I hope this didn't just stir muddy water.

Excellent post
For someone that handicaps the low claiming ranks this was very informative, and confirms the swings in the Beyer figures between races on older horses.
Mac:)

[PurplePower]

......... interesting parts in my horseman's christmas party tux colors of orange and blue. :)

Orange and Blue are the neuvo colors this Christmas? I'd have to go in something PURPLE with some GOLD appointments.

[NYPlayer]

I wonder if Ragozin or Thorograph numbers likewise show a significant drop-off in figures earned by the top handicap horses over the past five years…

Len Friedman of the Ragozin Sheets took note of the article. In response, he posted the following on their message board:

I noticed a DRF article by Dick Jerardi entitled "Top Beyer figures a thing of the past" where he bemoans the lack of great horses in recent years. There's some truth in what he describes, but some of what he sees is not that horses are slower now, but that the Beyer numbers missed out on a bunch of some of the recent top class performances.

In the list of the top Beyer number horses running on dirt from 1993 to 2011, all of the horses except one ran their big numbers in 2005 or before. On the SHEETS (forgive me the hubris of treating our numbers as the standard), there are eight horses with more than one number better than a minus 1 that ran between 2006 and the present--numbers comparable or better than the ones run by the horses on the Beyer list. Four had multiple numbers of minus 2s or better.

It is true that the majority of those numbers were run between 2006 and 2008, but last year Quality Road ran two minus 1s (in a top class year long campaign that included two 1s and a 2) and this year five horses ran 0 or better (minus 1 1/2 being the top number), although none of them would be described as historically top class SHEET horses.

Jerardi limited his survey to only to dirt which means that the great Zenyatta was left off again, but since Beyer pretty consistently "cheats" polytrack horses I doubt if there have been any Beyer polytrack numbers that would come close to making his top Beyers list (not even Smokey Stover who ran one of the five fastest numbers ever sprinting on poly and holds the distinction, I believe, of being the only horse with negative numbers on both poly and dirt).

Jerardi does have a point, though, in the fall off in numbers of top class horses particularly in the past three years. Three year olds in particular have been pretty weak crops, although there have been a couple of three year old fillies that would make any all time SHEET horses list. Other than Quality Road, the older males have been a pedestrian group--but once again there was a mare that was an all time great SHEET horse.

Maybe this is a trend (this year's two year olds were nothing special) or maybe it's just an historical blip. Smaller foal crops certainly figure to have an effect but I'd want to see at least a few more years before deciding that great horses are an extinct species.

[Capper Al]

http://www.drf.com/news/jerardi-top-beyer-figures-thing-past

Thanks for a good article and good thread.

Beyer's might not be the best speed figures, but they are a consistent way to measure horses. Therefore, there has to be something to the weaker crop theory.

[Bullet Plane]

I wonder if Ragozin or Thorograph numbers likewise show a significant drop-off in figures earned by the top handicap horses over the past five years…

No. They show them as fast , or faster. Which is kind of odd.