Question on Winning Odds

[Pace Cap'n]

If any database folks are so inclined, I would be interested to know the average odds of the winner of races that are won by a horse other than the post-time favorite.

Thanks in advance.

[sjk]

I get 7.49 to 1.

[BMeadow]

I checked 42,000+ races in one of my databases.

Came up with $7.58 to 1 for non-favorites.

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by sjk
I get 7.49 to 1.

That's pretty cool that you get the same win odds as Barry Meadow. Show's you're doing something right.

[sjk]

Thanks. I hope so.

[Pace Cap'n]

Many thanks for taking the time to research my question.

The answer was much, much higher than I anticipated. Even allowing for a certain skewing due to a few triple digit payoffs, that still seems to be a large number.

It seems all that remains is for me to develop a sufficient level of clairvoyance to determine which races the favorite will lose, and my results should improve exponentially. My inclination to bet longshots has been reinforced considerably.

[ranchwest]

If I recall correctly, if you include all of the favorites, the average is still over 5/1.

[BMeadow]

Yes, average payoff was $12.88.

Remember though that this is average, skewed by large payoffs. The median (half higher, half lower) for all races was only $8.40.