formula's figures 12-03-2011

[formula_2002]

play any horse who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Woodbine T-bred
Race
11

Post
5:50

MTP
0

$2 Exacta Pool
$40,987 "
PGNO % prob figure
1 9 98
2 6 65
3 4 48
4 9 98
5 7 77
6
7 7 81
8 9 98
9 6 65
10 4 48
11 7 74
12 6 65
13 9 98
14 19 216

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Hollywood
Race
6

Post
6:03

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$42,697 "
PGNO % prob figure
1 16 119
2 13 100
3 11 80
4 12 90
5 12 93
6 14 105
7 13 100
8 10 79

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Zia
Race
10

Post
6:08

MTP
3

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,188 "
PGNO % prob figure
1 16 92
2 13 73
3 20 115
4 11 62
5 29 161
6 10 57

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Turf Paradise
Race
9

Post
6:13

MTP
1


PGNO % prob figure
1 15 147
2 9 90
3 8 76
4 8 84
5 11 108
6 8 84
7 10 98
8 9 90
9 9 86
10 8 81
11 7 67

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Golden Gate Fields
Race
6

Post
6:20

MTP
3


PGNO % prob figure
1 7 61
2 7 61
3 10 92
4 7 64
5 8 68
6 9 79
7
8 8 73
9 8 67
10 27 233
11 9 76

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Turfway
Race
3

Post
6:28

MTP
0


PGNO % prob figure
1 9 75
2 15 128
3 9 75
4 18 159
5 7 59
6 6 50
7
8 8 67
9 8 67
10
11 10 89
12 6 50
13 6 50

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Hollywood
Race
7

Post
6:34

MTP
3


PGNO % prob figure
1 9 70
2 12 94
3 11 89
4 22 176
5 11 89
6 9 70
7 8 66
8 11 93
9 9 70

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Penn National
Race
8

Post
8:58

MTP
0


PGNO % prob figure
1 4 33
2 49 361
3 10 73
4 7 48
5 9 68
6 13 98
7 9 63
8
9

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Delta
Race
6

Post
9:01

MTP
1


PGNO % prob figure
1 9 64
2 11 79
3 19 143
4 10 78
5 15 110
6 10 78
7 11 86
8 15 109
9

[formula_2002]

after 9 races, structured betting out performed flat betting.

$529 structured win bet returned a .89 roi, flat bets .71 roi
$529 structured olace bets returned a 1.01 roi, flat bets, .93

a structured bet is %prob/100 x figure

having made that betting adjustment, it's now reasonable to bet horses who's odds are less than even

although the sample is small, it seems that horses of equal odds who's figure is less than 100 return a much lower roi, than those with figures >100.

when a structured bet is applied, it seems to further increase the roi.

[formula_2002]

play any horse,w/p who's figure >100. bet siz=%prob x figure
"Mountaineer
Race
8

Post
9:52

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,141 "
PGNO % prob figure
1 19 107
2
3 27 154
4 17 98
5 11 63
6 15 87
7 10 58