Does PaceAdvantage.com have that much of an influence on the tote?

[jeebus1083]

The other night, I posed a question to Raybo in regards to his reluctance to publicly make available his new spreadsheet in development, as he did not want a widespread release to effect the odds. I asked if he thought that material on a board like PA had that much of an influence where his tool would lose value. His answer, which was very fair, was that he didn't want to take a chance by making it public.

CJ keeps a limit on PaceFigures subscribers for the same reason: he doesn't want to hurt, or take a chance that more subscribers could hurt the parimutuel value of his product.

I have seen many posts over the years where a member will not disclose his or her methods because "(they) don't want to hurt their price" if they win.

I understand the effects of various handicapping tools being made available on a commercial scale over the years... Beyer figures, trainer stats, pedigree queries, just to name a few. People generally overuse published tools, especially if they are proven to yield a proportionate number of winners. However, the parimutuel value diminishes as more and more people jump on the bandwagon.

But in most cases, what some people talk about here, and are reluctant to share, are not really available commercially or to mainstream horseplayers. I bet that if I went into any OTB near where I live, I bet that less than 5% would even have a clue that PaceAdvantage even exists, and wouldn't even know what is discussed, mentioned, or shared.

Trust me, I'm not trying to be a wiseguy here. I understand that people have their reasons for keeping their methods down low or private. I guess my question is this: of the regularly active (guessing 10-15% of 7800+) members on this board, does THIS group really have THAT MUCH of an influence on the toteboards of North American racetracks, where shared insight would hurt prices?

My opinion? I don't think that we do. Despite the fact that field size has gone down, and total handle has gone down, there is still enough "dumb" money going around where an edge can be had. I digress to my previous OTB example from before. However, I think with the available information that was not available 10-15-20+ years ago, serious players have simply had to become more selective. "Edge" or perception of, varies race-by-race, just as it always has. However, the gap has narrowed, but not so much where the game is unplayable as a whole. If you look hard enough, I bet that we can find racetracks where perhaps the pools might be smaller, but the gap is looser, as there are not as many sophisticated players or "sharks" swimming in the water.

[thaskalos]

The vast majority of the winning players are tight-lipped and paranoid, when it comes to revealing their methods of play...and deservedly so.

They may offer a play or two...but they will not offer you the "playbook".

Whatever edge the winning horseplayer might have is both very small, and subject to change.

And it doesn't take that many people to make an "edge" disappear.

It only takes a couple of people with "deep pockets"...

[Overlay]

However, the parimutuel value diminishes as more and more people jump on the bandwagon.
Especially true of individual factors; top figure horses and other "most likely winners"; or bet-at-any-price, single-selection angles. For full-field consideration of winning chances in light of odds, not so much (although after-the-bell odds drops that turn overlays into underlays can still occur). (But for every such horse, one or more other horses in the same race that was already an overlay to begin with can turn into an even bigger overlay, which (as long as the outcomes of races are not predetermined) is why handicapping the whole field is important.

[therussmeister]

But in most cases, what some people talk about here, and are reluctant to share, are not really available commercially or to mainstream horseplayers. I bet that if I went into any OTB near where I live, I bet that less than 5% would even have a clue that PaceAdvantage even exists, and wouldn't even know what is discussed, mentioned, or shared.


It would take months, or probably even years, but eventually good ideas spread beyond the 5% that know of this site.

[Greyfox]

It would take months, or probably even years, but eventually good ideas spread beyond the 5% that know of this site.

Sorry, I'm not buying that yet.
Suppose 5% of horseplayers know of this site. Or even 10%.
There may be good ideas here re: handicapping.
On the other hand for every good idea there are likely 5 others that aren't worth a hill of beans.
Sorting through the messages from the static to "horseplayer nirvanna" can be a damn difficult chore. While undoubtedly some shrewd players, who are also willing to roll up their sleeves and work, can profit from the site, the vast majority won't put the time and energy in to make even the best ideas profitable to them.
While the PA site contributes to our enjoyment of horse racing and is the best message board of it's type, it's influence on tote board activity for the most part is probably pretty minimal.

[lamboguy]

there are some pretty strong handicappers on this site. as opposed to years ago, short priced horses beat the takeout rate these days, meaning that the roi is in the minus 14% area for horses 6/5 and under. i don't know the reason for that but some of it has to do with better handicappers.

[andymays]

It is an very influential forum. Probably the most influential by a wide margin.

As far at tote goes I would say not.

[Robert Goren]

As general rule I would say none or next none at any good size track. If you betting someplace with very small pools like PID then a post here could have an effect on a long shot. During my bridgejumper thread, I thought I saw more money coming late against the jumper near the end of my thread at some of the smaller tracks, but I could not be sure.

[horses4courses]

As general rule I would say none or next none at any good size track. If you betting someplace with very small pools like PID then a post here could have an effect on a long shot. During my bridgejumper thread, I thought I saw more money coming late against the jumper near the end of my thread at some of the smaller tracks, but I could not be sure.

I voted maybe.

You make a good point about pool size - that is the key factor here.
At the start of the thread, Raybo was mentioned as being reluctant to share his information.
He is a harness player and, as quite a few pools there are on the small side, I don't blame him in the least for sharing little.
If you have an edge at somewhere like Yonkers or Northfields, it won't stay that way for long if you're sharing.
Tracks with sizeable pools? No influence, imo....unless we have some whales.

[bigmack]

How does this silly poll not have 100% voting maybe?

[Dave Schwartz]

How does this silly poll not have 100% voting maybe?

Because the question was worded as "... have that much..." rather than have SOME impact.

Besides, "agreement" is not a word that is well-known on PA.

If the "BigMack Mortal Lock of the Day" won at 15/1and you posted instructions for past posting the bet 10 seconds after the race was over, a significant number of people on the PA would come forward to tell you why the horse would be taken down.


Dave

[bigmack]

Considering the question is directed at PA.com in general and the originator of the thread is talking about 'styles' of play and angles, rather than selections, and given the wealth of information available at this joint, I don't know how anyone could answer no. How 'bout that for a turnaround?

Lots of big cats have stuck their nose in here or are currently here. How can you say where you get angles & methods? It's floating all over the place.

Some musician wrote a tune from an idea he got from another tune and that guy got it from someplace else.

PA.com is virtual.

[jeebus1083]

I voted maybe.

You make a good point about pool size - that is the key factor here.
At the start of the thread, Raybo was mentioned as being reluctant to share his information.
He is a harness player and, as quite a few pools there are on the small side, I don't blame him in the least for sharing little.
If you have an edge at somewhere like Yonkers or Northfields, it won't stay that way for long if you're sharing.
Tracks with sizeable pools? No influence, imo....unless we have some whales.

horses4courses,

You're thinking of the wrong Ray. Ray2000 is the trotter guy on this board.

[Robert Fischer]

The vast majority of the winning players are tight-lipped and paranoid, when it comes to revealing their methods of play...and deservedly so.

They may offer a play or two...but they will not offer you the "playbook".

Whatever edge the winning horseplayer might have is both very small, and subject to change.

And it doesn't take that many people to make an "edge" disappear.

It only takes a couple of people with "deep pockets"...

well said

[raybo]

horses4courses,

You're thinking of the wrong Ray. Ray2000 is the trotter guy on this board.

Correct, I've never played a harness race in my life.

Regarding your OP, I don't have the answer, but, remember that I work in Excel, probably one of the easiest platforms to operate and manipulate in existence.

Most of us either have it on our computers now, or have had at one time or another, and know the basics of it's operation.

When you design a spreadsheet, especially a black box handicapping program that has tested to a positive ROI on every track tested thus far, making it available publicly, for free like AllData, just doesn't strike me as too smart, especially when the program is primarily a win/exacta box system.

The danger of doing so seems fairly evident, many would get it and use it and share it with friends, family, etc., and a few might even reverse engineer it, which in Excel is quite easy even for the layman.

There is a reason why CJ and others protect their work. They want to protect it's value.

[Bill Cullen]

No way.

[Robert Goren]

I have given this considerable thought in last day and decided that the Off Topics will have more influence on the 2012 presidential election than a post here will have the odds board.

[jasperson]

I voted no. I think most handicappers go their own way. Some posters have said they don't look at speed rating. Some say that so&so's speedratings are worthless. Some say they only use pace or class in their handicapping. My feeling is that most of us stick with what we a comfortable with. Also most of the people I know at the track are exotic players and those bet do not affect the odds.

[TrifectaMike]

I voted no. I think most handicappers go their own way. Some posters have said they don't look at speed rating. Some say that so&so's speedratings are worthless. Some say they only use pace or class in their handicapping. My feeling is that most of us stick with what we a comfortable with. Also most of the people I know at the track are exotic players and those bet do not affect the odds.

The exotics do affect the win odds. You may not know how?

Mike (Dr Beav)

[raybo]

The exotics do affect the win odds. You may not know how?

Mike (Dr Beav)

I would say the odds affect the exotics much more than the exotics affect the odds, except for exacta probables, they can and do affect win odds because some players use these probables to help them decide which horse to place a win wager, place wager, etc., on.

Since the pools aren't physically mixed, any affect would be indirect, if some one plays an exotic, instead of a win bet, then that does affect win odds, as his money doesn't get in the win pool.

[horses4courses]

horses4courses,

You're thinking of the wrong Ray. Ray2000 is the trotter guy on this board.


My bad.....got my Rays mixed up

[jasperson]

The exotics do affect the win odds. You may not know how?

Mike (Dr Beav)
Please enlighten me so I will know how? Right now I can't see how a bet in the exotic pool affects the win pool.

[pondman]

I'm more concerned talking about a 45% win method with a 2.2% ROI and having someone who doesn't understand consistent gambling go out and lose their mortgage payment. It's easy to take the best method and the best selection and lose money, if you aren't swinging hard at the big ones.

[Cardus]

No way.

Sharp post.

[speed]

Sharp post.
No Way :)

[overthehill]

I think people should be paranoid about revealing winning strategies, except perhaps on favorites. On anything else it doesnt take much to affect the winning odds negatively. as far as exacta and win pools being separate that may be true but many people watch the exacta trends to determine how they are going to bet. For example I may want to get at least 3 times the win price on an exacta on top of the favorite. so if the horse i like is at 7-1 and the exacta with the chalk is $50 I will step up and play the exacta, but if its $30 not only will i not play the exacta but I will wait until the very last moment to bet win because in all likelihood that win price will be dropping sharply, and may well be below my odds requirement by post time.

[classhandicapper]

Please enlighten me so I will know how? Right now I can't see how a bet in the exotic pool affects the win pool.

Some people look for the pool that gives them the best possible value on the horse they like.

For example, you can construct the equivalent of a win bet in the exacta or daily double pool by wheeling your horse but adjusting the bet size on each combination depending on the payoff.

If the horse you like is 2-1 in the exacta and double pools but 5-2 in the win pool, you should make the bet in the win pool. The lower odds in the exotics would tend to drag down the win price and vice versa.

[jeebus1083]

I think people should be paranoid about revealing winning strategies, except perhaps on favorites.

The majority of those that have voted feel that this board doesn't influence the tote, yet some people remain paranoid that sharing some theories could hurt their odds. Seems like a contradiction IMO.

[cj]

The majority of those that have voted feel that this board doesn't influence the tote, yet some people remain paranoid that sharing some theories could hurt their odds. Seems like a contradiction IMO.

Doesn't it depend on who you are talking about?

[classhandicapper]

The majority of those that have voted feel that this board doesn't influence the tote, yet some people remain paranoid that sharing some theories could hurt their odds. Seems like a contradiction IMO.

At one time or another I think I've shared and elaborated on every aspect of my handicapping that leads to profitable play except for one thing. I had a very profitable semi automatic place play that would be too easy to mimic and destroy because of the smaller place pools to give away. It's pretty much moot at this point though because net pool pricing and lower rebates took most if not all of the positive return out of it.

[jeebus1083]

At one time or another I think I've shared and elaborated on every aspect of my handicapping that leads to profitable play except for one thing. I had a very profitable semi automatic place play that would be too easy to mimic and destroy because of the smaller place pools to give away. It's pretty much moot at this point though because net pool pricing and lower rebates took most if not all of the positive return out of it.

Do you really believe that sharing it on PaceAdvantage will "hurt" your price? To me, it sounds like you feel that enough people would access this board, read the post, and run to the windows. That's my question in a nutshell.

In the grand scheme of things, the PA roster makes up a small percentage of all horseplayers. I'd be willing to bet top dollar, that the majority of horseplayers are not at all sophisticated, have no use or bother to even participate in an online forum/discussion environment, and instead take advantage of ready-made tools that are basically built into the odds anyway.

[classhandicapper]

Do you really believe that sharing it on PaceAdvantage will "hurt" your price? To me, it sounds like you feel that enough people would access this board, read the post, and run to the windows. That's my question in a nutshell.


Some place pools are so small a single $200 bet could move the price enough to matter long term.

[thaskalos]

Do you really believe that sharing it on PaceAdvantage will "hurt" your price?
It may not "hurt" your price...but one thing is certain:

It will do more harm than good.

So, what would be the incentive for sharing your methods with a group of other bettors?

[jeebus1083]

It may not "hurt" your price...but one thing is certain:

It will do more harm than good.

So, what would be the incentive for sharing your methods with a group of other bettors?

It's called learning.

Ideas get taken, and ideas get culled on a daily basis. I listen to people, take in their insight, and take everything into consideration. I don't always have to agree, but it's there for the taking.

In all honesty, I don't listen to half the people anyway. I go with my gut instinct.

To the contrary, not everyone handicaps with gadgets and gizmos. Most horseplayers continue to, and will forever, lead a Neanderthal existence.

In most circumstances, all roads will point to the favorite anyway.

The only "automatic" bet in racing is when a horse meets all of your criteria and represents value. In other words, if all roads don't point to the favorite and instead point elsewhere at generous odds, congratulations!

[classhandicapper]

It's called learning.


I never play a horse because someone else likes it, but if they point out something I missed that I agree is important I definitely consider that information and make it part of my decision making.

Andy Serling occasionally catches something I missed that I agree with.

But I've learned way more from discussing (and even arguing) issues with people that I don't always see eye to eye with. Sometimes the passion of debate opens doors that fill holes in your own game.

[Dark Horse]

I could think of two things, in this context, that will effect the tote board, and they're not the same. The true strength of a method, and the marketing machine behind a method. Sharing a method of true strength would bring public recognition at the cost of profits. A few have done so. To this day I'm astounded at what horse players have been willing to share with the public through the years. A whole library, compared to perhaps five books worth reading by sports bettors. I have friends, who know of the method I've developed, giving me thousands of dollars to bet for them on the Kentucky Derby, and they think they do me a favor by promising me a cut of the winnings. All I do with their money is bet into my own edge. lol

While on this topic, I'm very carefully toying with the idea of offering a RAS type baseball service. See http://contests.covers.com/Sportscontests/profile.aspx?user=11738&sportid=5 This is a sample size of 1000 and a Z-score of 3, well beyond the influence of luck. A 1K bettor last season would have walked away with 55K, and with 24K the season before. I doubt if it's worth the headache to set up a website etc, but the idea of helping a few folks make that type of money, in this economy, would make this lifestyle more meaningful to me. Of course, in sports betting you can share this type of thing without affecting your own odds. I didn't share this here to impress anybody, but because maybe there's somebody here that knows somebody; that kind of thing.

[pondman]

So, what would be the incentive for sharing your methods with a group of other bettors?

Can anyone point towards one thread anywhere on Pace Advantage, which is so golden and easy? One which will make a follower wealthy on $2?

[raybo]

Can anyone point towards one thread anywhere on Pace Advantage, which is so golden and easy? One which will make a follower wealthy on $2?

Well, if it's so "golden and easy" I doubt anyone would post it.

Would you?

[thaskalos]

Can anyone point towards one thread anywhere on Pace Advantage, which is so golden and easy? One which will make a follower wealthy on $2?
Is this a serious question?

[rubicon55]

Can anyone point towards one thread anywhere on Pace Advantage, which is so golden and easy? One which will make a follower wealthy on $2?

I suggest retiring from the ponies if that is a sincere comment.

[Dark Horse]

Can anyone point towards one thread anywhere on Pace Advantage, which is so golden and easy? One which will make a follower wealthy on $2?

Not really the question to ask on a PaceAdvantage forum.

Past Performances are like any sport stats. They reflect the past. The golden key to horse racing is the Present Performance. Would be nice to have a form with those, wouldn't it? To the best of my understanding, which is limited with regards to pace figures, those figures aspire to bridge the gap between past and present.

There are many tools available. High quality tools. But they won't unlock the treasure chest. The missing piece to the puzzle is hidden within yourself. The question is if you're willing to do the (hard) work to find it. I know it sounds corny, but it's all about an individual's willingness to pay the price. If you don't pay the price upfront, through hardcore research, you're going to pay it at the betting window. There is no easy way. Good luck. ;)

[ranchwest]

It is impossible to answer this question.

For most of us, at least 90% of what we know grew out of learning from others. How often that learning puts us on the same horse as our mentors cannot be determined because most of us use an amalgam of concepts.

I know that nearly everything I utilize grew out of ideas from others, some of which came from the PA board. My edge is in the way I enhance and combine the knowledge.

[HUSKER55]

I doubt there is any influence at all. Everyone wants to learn something to better their handicapping. I get an idea, use it, compare it to past races and then make a decision.

I think the handicappers edge comes in the confidence of knowing that the system he has created is based on sound logic and not some kind of voodoo math.

confidence is an important part of the game.

[ranchwest]

I doubt there is any influence at all. Everyone wants to learn something to better their handicapping. I get an idea, use it, compare it to past races and then make a decision.

I think the handicappers edge comes in the confidence of knowing that the system he has created is based on sound logic and not some kind of voodoo math.

confidence is an important part of the game.

Yeah, but if it is confidence in someone else's concept, then you're into their pocket to at least some degree.

I'm not against sharing, sometimes I share. But I don't share with no understanding of what I'm actually doing.

[raybo]

That's the real point to this discussion. Sharing thoughts, ideas, and beliefs, is one thing. Making a complete handicapping and wagering process available to the public, is a different ballgame.

[windoor]

Although I don’t post much anymore, I believe I already gave up a process that can make anyone with a decent factor set become profitable. A reminder is in my signature every time I post.

While it does not give specifics on my factor set, it does give a process to see if what you are presently doing can be profitable. I use it religiously and it has never failed to qualify (or disqualify) a play or angle.

It does take a commitment in time and patience, but if you don’t have that, it is very unlikely you will be successful at this game anyway.

In any case, I get on some very long odd horses from time to time, and with my maximum wager set at $200 to win, I can affect the odds with my wager alone, in most pools. Why would I want to share?

Regards,

Windoor

[IdaBet.com]

At Idabet.com, we've signed up a number of players and many are pretty good bettors. I know from my early days in racing when it was just on track live betting, one could easily change the odds.

As mutuel teller during college nothing drives you crazier than a last second bettor barking out bets with his head turned to looking at the oddsboard. Then of course, that sets in motion to this day everyone who wants to wait to bet til the end thinking they'll catch something.

Seeing those last second odds drop are a thing of the past and waiting 'til post is more likely to get you shut out than anything.

I find there's a lot of interest in PaceAdvantage, so it's most possible one of their fans can make a difference at a small track and who knows even at a big track with the right suitcase.

I try to tell all of our players, concentrate on handicapping or watch what is hot at the time and stop worrying about games or bridgejumpers...that's how successful players win.

Happy Holidays everyone from Idabet.com, where you wake up to cash every morning.

[pondman]

Is this a serious question?

If anyone were to share a profitable method on Pace Advantage, they would be ridiculed and personally vilified, by the 10%ers and non-winners (notice I try not to call anyone losers.) There's a group on here that's trying to keep improving, and there is a group on here who just seeks misery.

[raybo]

If you could get together the 2%, or less, of players that are profitable, long term, and asked them what the secret to success in racing is, I am fairly sure they would say the same thing that Pittsburg Phil said many years ago: "a good horse at a good price". I don't care what software or method you use, if you aren't, consistently, getting "the best of it" you will lose, long term.

You don't get "the best of it" by decreasing the "value" you get.

[PaceAdvantage]

If anyone were to share a profitable method on Pace Advantage, they would be ridiculed and personally vilifiedWhat? Care to link to an example to prove your point?

If someone shares a profitable method that was verified as such, there would be nothing but praise from here to kingdom come...

[Overlay]

What? Care to link to an example to prove your point?

If someone shares a profitable method that was verified as such, there would be nothing but praise from here to kingdom come...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24232&highlight=Longshots+Ticket+Success

What about Boxcar's "Longshots Are the Ticket to Success" thread (at the above link) from 2005-2006? All he was trying to do was share information. I don't know that any of the information/angles that he posted had been formally/statistically verified/documented as profitable, but he was not looking to get anything out of what he was doing. He was just putting the information out there for other handicappers to read and consider, and he took nothing but grief from people who demanded that he furnish examples (and not just from past races, but from races yet to be run) to prove that what he was posting was profitable, and who implied (or even stated outright) that if he didn't/couldn't do that, then his information was worthless, and he had no right to post it at all.

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24232&highlight=Longshots+Ticket+Success

What about Boxcar's "Longshots Are the Ticket to Success" thread (at the above link) from 2005-2006? All he was trying to do was share information. I don't know that any of the information/angles that he posted had been formally/statistically verified/documented as profitable, but he was not looking to get anything out of what he was doing. He was just putting the information out there for other handicappers to read and consider, and he took nothing but grief from people who demanded that he furnish examples (and not just from past races, but from races yet to be run) to prove that what he was posting was profitable, and who implied (or even stated outright) that if he didn't/couldn't do that, then his information was worthless, and he had no right to post it at all.With all due respect, this doesn't meet my request, as you yourself state "I don't know that any of the information/angles that he posted had been formally/statistically verified/documented as profitable."

I guarantee you that had they been (and it's not such an outrageous demand that they be), there would be no ridicule or vilification.

And for the record, plenty of people have shared stuff in this forum (verified or not) and have not been ridiculed or vilified.

[thaskalos]

If you could get together the 2%, or less, of players that are profitable, long term, and asked them what the secret to success in racing is, I am fairly sure they would say the same thing that Pittsburg Phil said many years ago: "a good horse at a good price". I don't care what software or method you use, if you aren't, consistently, getting "the best of it" you will lose, long term.

You don't get "the best of it" by decreasing the "value" you get.
There is a reason why Pittsburg Phil insisted that his memoirs be released only after he was dead. ;)

[Greyfox]

There is a reason why Pittsburg Phil insisted that his memoirs be released only after he was dead. ;)

Pittsburg Phil?
A legendary horse player who put effort and time into studying the ponies.
He would have had to make his plays essentially without the exotic bets that we have today.

From--> http://www.drf.com/news/godfather-handicappers-pittsburg-phil-changed-game-forever

"When he died his estate came to almost $2 million, a sizable fortune in those days. Almost all of it came from playing the horses."

[Show Me the Wire]

From personal experience I must say yes. Many years ago while this site was young I posted two angles regarding the GP meet. One was in the thread "keys to the mint" about msw droppers to mcl and another thread about a $10k claimers angle. The prices on these specific angles dropped significantly.

I learned my lesson not to share specifics. I can only imagine the impact this site would have now based on the number of members and lurkers.

[windoor]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24232&highlight=Longshots+Ticket+Success

What about Boxcar's "Longshots Are the Ticket to Success" thread (at the above link) from 2005-2006? All he was trying to do was share information. I don't know that any of the information/angles that he posted had been formally/statistically verified/documented as profitable, but he was not looking to get anything out of what he was doing. He was just putting the information out there for other handicappers to read and consider, and he took nothing but grief from people who demanded that he furnish examples (and not just from past races, but from races yet to be run) to prove that what he was posting was profitable, and who implied (or even stated outright) that if he didn't/couldn't do that, then his information was worthless, and he had no right to post it at all.

I just read most of this thread and find the relationship very closely matches a play of my own. I also have done extensive studies on the longshot.

It doesn't have to be a Bug Boy, but that can be a consideration. I call them IFL horses, (in for less) that is a trainer who will enter the horse for a lower claiming price then what is asked for to get weight off. This is almost always a good sign that horse is being sent with good intentions. I Had Harry include this filter in the custom app he made for me. I find it quite useful.

I add a few other qualifiers to make it a play for me, but the average odd is indeed quite high. More than enough to offset the 22% hit rate.

I don't see why anyone would would ask for proof of success unless he was trying to sell it. Either you find something useful or you don't. Agree or disagree as you will, but it looked to me his intentions was to merely give you a play to think about. Nothing wrong with that.

Regards,

Windoor