PDA

View Full Version : DERBYWARS


gambler844
12-01-2011, 07:06 PM
I play in some of the derbwars contests. How does one determine which contest will give you the best return for your investment?
Thanks for any help
ed

stu
12-01-2011, 10:07 PM
Calculate the expectation.

For example, in the $250 FRIDAY NIGHT game (#408), 12 horse racing fantasy contestants will put up $25 to a portion of $250. First, second and third prizes are respectively $125, $75, and $50.

Let's assume all contestants have equal ability so you will have a 1/12th chance of finishing in any spot.

{(1/12)*125+(1/12)*75+(1/12)*50 - 25}/25 = -16.7%

In the $1,250 SATURDAY game (#406), 60 horse racing fantasy contestants will put up $25 to a portion of $1,250. First through tenth prizes are respectively $400, $250, $175, $125, $100, $75, $50, $25, $25, $25 .

Let's assume all contestants have equal ability so you will have a 1/60th chance of finishing in any spot.

{(1/60)*400+(1/60)*250+(1/60)*175+(1/60)*125+(1/60)*100+(1/60)*75+(1/60)*50+(3/60)*25 - 25}/25 = -16.7%


If you do this for the Friday and Saturday tournaments, here are the numbers:

-16.7% 200pt FRI AQUEDUCT
-16.7% for $100 CRC/AQU
-15.8% for $400 CRC/AQU
-15.8% for $400 HOL/GG
-16.7% for $250 FRI NIGHT
-16.7% for $1,250 SATURDAY

The numbers change if you think that you have a better than 1/nth chance of winning. If you use the Friday HOL/GG example, if you know that there is no way 3 particular players can every finish ahead of you (now you are 1/16th instead of 1/19th), then -15.8% becomes break even. If you know that you will finish ahead of 6 players every time (now you are 1/13th) then the number becomes +23%.

So in all reality, the best return on your investment hinges on a poker player skill -- table selection. Find the game where you are among the better players and not among the worse players. Derbywars is set up so that you can see who has already bought into the tournament before you buy-in.

After a while you could develop stats on the the individuals that you are likely to play against so you know who to avoid. Say if it were once-legal online poker, you would avoid a table with Tom Dwan (aka durrrr). Say if it were Derbywars, you would avoid a tournament with Rich Nilsen unless of course you (dillusionally) thought you were better than him.

In summary, learn your competitors and play when it is in your favor.

gambler844
12-01-2011, 10:13 PM
I sure appreciate you taking you time to help.
Thanks STU
ed

Donnie
12-06-2011, 11:12 PM
So in all reality, the best return on your investment hinges on a poker player skill -- table selection. Find the game where you are among the better players and not among the worse players. Derbywars is set up so that you can see who has already bought into the tournament before you buy-in.

As an aside, I would postulate that to become a "Rich Nilsen", you must play in Rich Nilsen's backyard. Traveled 4 hours once to a tournament where a lot of the top players showed up. Intimidation at the beginning subsided when I finished 12th out of 100 entrants. I enjoy watching a Leaderboard to learn how others play.

JimG
12-07-2011, 03:29 PM
As an aside, I would postulate that to become a "Rich Nilsen", you must play in Rich Nilsen's backyard. Traveled 4 hours once to a tournament where a lot of the top players showed up. Intimidation at the beginning subsided when I finished 12th out of 100 entrants. I enjoy watching a Leaderboard to learn how others play.

FWIW, I play there a lot and enjoy it. I don't try to avoid anyone. If you want to be one of the best, you have to play with the best.

Jim

Donnie
12-07-2011, 03:40 PM
If you want to be one of the best, you have to play with the best.

Amen, Jim.

stu
12-07-2011, 04:01 PM
FWIW, I play there a lot and enjoy it. I don't try to avoid anyone. If you want to be one of the best, you have to play with the best.

Jim

Jim,

Under what name do you play?

JimG
12-07-2011, 04:06 PM
Jim,

Under what name do you play?

I'm real original. I play under JimG


Jim