Valuist
12-01-2011, 09:43 AM
I bought two puts last April (Jan 2012 expiration). Part of me wants to cash in now but w/a chart as broken as this one, have to think there's more downside. Hard to imagine a V-bottom from today.
So what will be the next cult-type stock to crash? My guess would be Lululemon. Wouldn't short it quite yet but it looks like a replay of Krispy Kreme, Crox and Netflix.
Watching LULU implode in early trading. I can't help but gloat a little bit. When I think of companies I mentioned above, makes one want to find a faddish-cult like stock to short.
So I'm driving in to work and the obvious comes into my head: Apple. What? How dare I think that? Apple is arguably the best consumer company in the world. Its users seem to all love the ipods, the cell phones and notebooks, as well as Macs. I have had an iPod for a number of years and its a great device. But those great products are all well factored into the giant market cap and stock price.
The stock has had a tremendous run for a number of years but it does seem to be experiencing some strong resistance around 400. It could just be consolidating; nothing can go up continuously.
So what's next? They figure to face increased competition w/the ipods, phones and notebooks. The one potential to move forward would be the enterprise market for the Macs. But that won't be easy.
So do I see it imploding soon? I guess the key word is soon. I would say no. But one can't help but wonder if the implosion is coming w/in the next 5 years. I am NOT saying the company will go out of business by any stretch but to believe the stock will continue to go up at the rate it had been for the past several years is very naive, IMO. If you don't own the stock outright (disclosure: I do still own shares) there's a good chance you do in mutual funds. All I'm saying is if your attitude is you would never sell AAPL, or never sell a fund that is heavily made up of AAPL, you are delusional. We've seen too many of these implosions over the years. Remember when we were told CSCO would be the biggest company in the world? Sure, they are still around but at 1/4 of the market cap.
So what will be the next cult-type stock to crash? My guess would be Lululemon. Wouldn't short it quite yet but it looks like a replay of Krispy Kreme, Crox and Netflix.
Watching LULU implode in early trading. I can't help but gloat a little bit. When I think of companies I mentioned above, makes one want to find a faddish-cult like stock to short.
So I'm driving in to work and the obvious comes into my head: Apple. What? How dare I think that? Apple is arguably the best consumer company in the world. Its users seem to all love the ipods, the cell phones and notebooks, as well as Macs. I have had an iPod for a number of years and its a great device. But those great products are all well factored into the giant market cap and stock price.
The stock has had a tremendous run for a number of years but it does seem to be experiencing some strong resistance around 400. It could just be consolidating; nothing can go up continuously.
So what's next? They figure to face increased competition w/the ipods, phones and notebooks. The one potential to move forward would be the enterprise market for the Macs. But that won't be easy.
So do I see it imploding soon? I guess the key word is soon. I would say no. But one can't help but wonder if the implosion is coming w/in the next 5 years. I am NOT saying the company will go out of business by any stretch but to believe the stock will continue to go up at the rate it had been for the past several years is very naive, IMO. If you don't own the stock outright (disclosure: I do still own shares) there's a good chance you do in mutual funds. All I'm saying is if your attitude is you would never sell AAPL, or never sell a fund that is heavily made up of AAPL, you are delusional. We've seen too many of these implosions over the years. Remember when we were told CSCO would be the biggest company in the world? Sure, they are still around but at 1/4 of the market cap.