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Capper Al
11-30-2011, 05:59 PM
Players might get caught up wondering would one speed figure or another pace figure give me more winners. Although some figures are a little better than others(after pumping out various different numbers from my code) I can safely say the better figs aren't going to make you rich. This also holds through for the different software applications sold. One handicapper could be doing well with one application while another person could be losing big time with the same app. Why would one player lose with the same app? My first guess would be money management followed secondly by not understanding the racing game. The money management part involves keeping records and understanding the percentages. Understanding the racing game focuses on -- is that horse right for today's race. A lot of being right is Form and trainer intent. Without these two, no figures or application will work for you.

cj
11-30-2011, 07:11 PM
To be blunt, yes, they should help you win more. That doesn't mean they alone will make you a winner.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 07:23 PM
Players might get caught up wondering would one speed figure or another pace figure give me more winners. Although some figures are a little better than others(after pumping out various different numbers from my code) I can safely say the better figs aren't going to make you rich. This also holds through for the different software applications sold. One handicapper could be doing well with one application while another person could be losing big time with the same app. Why would one player lose with the same app? My first guess would be money management followed secondly by not understanding the racing game. The money management part involves keeping records and understanding the percentages. Understanding the racing game focuses on -- is that horse right for today's race. A lot of being right is Form and trainer intent. Without these two, no figures or application will work for you.

This to me sums it all up in one sentence.

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

cj
11-30-2011, 07:24 PM
[/b]

This to me sums it all up in one sentence.

Mac:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

I've spent time around a lot of trainers, and most have a lot less clue about when the horse will win and lose than a few good bettors I know. As for form, good figures can certainly help in that regard.

CincyHorseplayer
11-30-2011, 07:30 PM
Not having figs at all won't help you win.Having better figs is a plus.Sometimes a pace fig will alert me to a horse in a contentious field saying bet me.But bottomline to me is having solid figs validates or discredits the analytical conclusion you've reached about a horse you love or hate.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 08:01 PM
I've spent time around a lot of trainers, and most have a lot less clue about when the horse will win and lose than a few good bettors I know. As for form, good figures can certainly help in that regard.

So trainer intent can be ruled out in past performance.

Mac:confused:

Capper Al
11-30-2011, 08:28 PM
I'm not saying not to use numbers. I am saying the game is between the lines. At best the difference between the best and worst speed figures isn't more than a few of points. Speed is speed. Class is class. And pace is pace. No matter who is rating them. There are differences between numbers, but for the most part, they are at least 90% similar to each other.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 08:52 PM
I'm not saying not to use numbers. I am saying the game is between the lines. At best the difference between the best and worst speed figures isn't more than a few of points. Speed is speed. Class is class. And pace is pace. No matter who is rating them. There are differences between numbers, but for the most part, they are at least 90% similar to each other.

Most players struggle here and look for a simple solution I wish. I use the last four pace lines only with filters using Bris data with free PP generator.Then the numbers kick in to supplement selections.

Mac:)

Capper Al
11-30-2011, 09:00 PM
Most players struggle here and look for a simple solution I wish. I use the last four pace lines only with filters using Bris data with free PP generator.Then the numbers kick in to supplement selections.

Mac:)

BRIS is a good source for data. I use their Multicaps data file.

cj
11-30-2011, 09:00 PM
So trainer intent can be ruled out in past performance.

Mac:confused:
Isn't it unknown? How about a few examples.

cj
11-30-2011, 09:02 PM
I'm not saying not to use numbers. I am saying the game is between the lines. At best the difference between the best and worst speed figures isn't more than a few of points. Speed is speed. Class is class. And pace is pace. No matter who is rating them. There are differences between numbers, but for the most part, they are at least 90% similar to each other.
I am not disagreeing, but in a game with a 20% rake, every few points helps, no?

bob60566
11-30-2011, 09:21 PM
Isn't it unknown? How about a few examples.\\

Yes

Trainer intent is ask any of them is your horse going to win.

Now ask them your horse just went round the track last time ran terrible compared to the distance three back. But he was running good two races back for four furlungs then fell back??????.

Make sense

Mac:ThmbUp:

Johnny V
11-30-2011, 10:16 PM
I'm not saying not to use numbers. I am saying the game is between the lines. At best the difference between the best and worst speed figures isn't more than a few of points. Speed is speed. Class is class. And pace is pace. No matter who is rating them. There are differences between numbers, but for the most part, they are at least 90% similar to each other.
Yes, I would say that the better figs are going to help. A few points can be enough for me. At 6F 1 length is about 2.5 points in the Beyer numbers and Bris about 1.5 points. I would sure like to know that one horse is 1 or more lengths faster at the distance. Now that being said, while they are going to help more, the other factors like form etc. have to be considered. Figs are not the end all but that is where to start. Speed /pace is a very predictive factor.

Dave Schwartz
11-30-2011, 10:27 PM
IMHO, using good figures will certainly add a little to your game, while bad using figures will destroy it!

Of course, 90+% of the results from speed figures are buried in the tote board anyway. I mean, the world is speed-crazy.

Do you know what you call a horse that has big speed figures and an obvious early speed advantage?

The odds-on favorite.


We've got to look elsewhere for value.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

BIG49010
11-30-2011, 10:32 PM
Must be true, people everyday pay 25 dollars for the Sheets or T-graph when Bris is just a dollar for the theirs. Doesn't that make them all winners?

pondman
11-30-2011, 10:48 PM
Not having figs at all won't help you win.Having better figs is a plus.

I don't use them. And you shouldn't insist that I lose, over time. I have years of data, but my own variables don't include times or fractions. I prefer and usually require a horse's past to look awful before I get out the cannons.

pondman
11-30-2011, 11:04 PM
I've spent time around a lot of trainers, and most have a lot less clue about when the horse will win and lose than a few good bettors I know.

This might be true at the lower claimer levels. But at the high end, the owner is going to hang an incompetent trainer by the throat if they can't manage a horse well. This requires pointing towards a race. So it's more important to understand-- is the horse running into shape, ready to fire at this level, or tired and needing a rest? Can a speed figure point this out? I think a speed figure will point it out after the fact. It's going to be too late to make any money once the horse fires. Because at that point the crowd is on it.

I do like the idea of a pace figure. I think it's got its application, because it's not as obvious to the crowd.

Johnny V
11-30-2011, 11:07 PM
The "better" figs are probably going to help get more winners in answer to the original question but of course more winners does not necessarily relate to profit. Asking how I can make money in this race rather just trying to figure the winner. Speed/pace figures are very predictive, and the final odds are the most, but you have to use something worthwhile to figure your contenders so you can decide where the value is. For me I start with the figs but there are other ways to come to a contender selection and other handicappers do just that.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:08 PM
To be blunt, yes, they should help you win more. That doesn't mean they alone will make you a winner
.

Next step to make me A winner????

Mac:confused:

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:12 PM
This might be true at the lower claimer levels. But at the high end, the owner is going to hang an incompetent trainer by the throat if they can't manage a horse well. This requires pointing towards a race. So it's more important to understand-- is the horse running into shape, ready to fire at this level, or tired and needing a rest? Can a speed figure point this out? I think a speed figure will point it out after the fact. It's going to be too late to make any money once the horse fires. Because at that point the crowd is on it.

I do like the idea of a pace figure. I think it's got its application, because it's not as obvious to the crowd.

This is correct

Mac:) :) :)

cj
11-30-2011, 11:13 PM
Next step to make me A winner????

Mac:confused:
I don't even think figures are the first step.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:15 PM
Next step to make me A winner????

Mac:confused:

Correct

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:18 PM
I don't even think figures are the first step.

So what is

Mac:confused: :confused:

Tom
11-30-2011, 11:26 PM
I'll take good figs over trainer stats any day.
The figs will tell me a lot about the quality of the trainers.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:29 PM
I'll take good figs over trainer stats any day.
The figs will tell me a lot about the quality of the trainers.

Tom on trainer stats the world can see that is not trainer intent

Mac:)

pondman
11-30-2011, 11:36 PM
So what is

Mac:confused: :confused:

A softer field. It's ideal if the crowd doesn't recognize the variables, such as a billionaire owner and a little know jockey. The horse itself could look awful and fire. It's intentional; They change surfaces and distance to confuse the crowd.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:40 PM
A softer field. It's ideal if the crowd doesn't recognize the variables, such as a billionaire owner and a little know jockey. The horse itself could look awful and fire. It's intentional; They change surfaces and distance to confuse the crowd.

Ok that is one ???????????? so where does the figs come into play


Mac:confused:

cj
11-30-2011, 11:53 PM
So what is

Mac:confused: :confused:

It is like a jigsaw puzzle. You need all the pieces, doesn't matter where you start.

bob60566
11-30-2011, 11:56 PM
It is like a jigsaw puzzle. You need all the pieces, doesn't matter where you start.

To be blunt, yes, they should help you win more. That doesn't mean they alone will make you a winner.

Correct.
If it was all that easy

Mac

thaskalos
12-01-2011, 12:13 AM
Unless the speed figures are accompanied by quality pace figures...they are next to worthless, IMO.

But an accurate set of speed AND pace figures is worth its weight in gold.

IMO...there can be no accurate form evaluation without them.

And as to those people who think that there is only a slight difference between all the figures currently available?

I don't think that are paying that much attention.

I had been making my own "Quirin-style" speed and pace figures for years...until I decided to try CJ's figures, after winning a year's subscription as a result of winning this year's P.A.I.H.L. handicapping contest.

Now...my figure-making days are over.

Are CJ's figures important to me in my handicapping?

IMO...they would be a bargain at five times the cost.

It behooves the serious bettor to use the best figures he can get his hands on.

We have enough disadvantages in this game; why create more?

Robert Goren
12-01-2011, 12:47 AM
Unless the speed figures are accompanied by quality pace figures...they are next to worthless, IMO.

But an accurate set of speed AND pace figures is worth its weight in gold.

IMO...there can be no accurate form evaluation without them.

And as to those people who think that there is only a slight difference between all the figures currently available?

I don't think that are paying that much attention.

I had been making my own "Quirin-style" speed and pace figures for years...until I decided to try CJ's figures, after winning a year's subscription as a result of winning this year's P.A.I.H.L. handicapping contest.

Now...my figure-making days are over.

Are CJ's figures important to me in my handicapping?

IMO...they would be a bargain at five times the cost.

It behooves the serious bettor to use the best figures he can get his hands on.

We have enough disadvantages in this game; why create more?I agree on the speed number part. It is when you get to the pace number stuff that you lose me. You can't make good pace numbers without good information. The charts that equibase puts out are pure crap when it comes to lengths back at the fractional calls. Even the running positions for horses other than the leader is highly suspect. Maybe some day we might get good charts, but that day is not going to be tomorrow or the next day.

thaskalos
12-01-2011, 01:53 AM
I agree on the speed number part. It is when you get to the pace number stuff that you lose me. You can't make good pace numbers without good information. The charts that equibase puts out are pure crap when it comes to lengths back at the fractional calls. Even the running positions for horses other than the leader is highly suspect. Maybe some day we might get good charts, but that day is not going to be tomorrow or the next day.

Robert, I agree; the game is stuck in early twentieth century mode.

But we have to do the best with what we got.

The bad guesswork is not limited to the lengths-behind calls; it's all over the place!

Are the speed figures based on "good information"?

Aren't they dependent on "accurate" variants...which are often just as much guesswork as the lengths behind are?

What about the class designations?

What conclusion can we draw about a race which is listed as a $10,000 claiming race?

Aren't some $10,000 claiming races won by "Beyers" in the 60s...while other $10,000 claiming races require an 80+ Beyer in order to visit the winners circle?

How accurate is that?

And what about the much-revered "form evaluation"?

We carefully study a race which took place over THREE WEEKS ago...and we consider this to be a study of RECENT FORM!

Isn't the assumption that the horse will be the same today as it was three weeks ago, also just guesswork?

And let's not even talk about the morning workouts...

Is there really any "good information" in this game?

Or is all the available information just guesses...and the players who interpret these "guesses" the best win?

You get the best information available...and you try to supplement it with your own best judgement.

THAT'S the name of the game, IMO.

Tom
12-01-2011, 07:30 AM
Tell that to the sheets guys.

CincyHorseplayer
12-01-2011, 08:10 AM
Unless the speed figures are accompanied by quality pace figures...they are next to worthless, IMO.

But an accurate set of speed AND pace figures is worth its weight in gold.

IMO...there can be no accurate form evaluation without them.

And as to those people who think that there is only a slight difference between all the figures currently available?

I don't think that are paying that much attention.

I had been making my own "Quirin-style" speed and pace figures for years...until I decided to try CJ's figures, after winning a year's subscription as a result of winning this year's P.A.I.H.L. handicapping contest.

Now...my figure-making days are over.

Are CJ's figures important to me in my handicapping?

IMO...they would be a bargain at five times the cost.

It behooves the serious bettor to use the best figures he can get his hands on.

We have enough disadvantages in this game; why create more?

Exact same feelings and situation here Thask.

The other thing is knowing the few situations where speed figures increase and decline and how much.Cramer ponted out that class droppers as a whole,winners and losers improved their figures by 8 points.Risers dropped an average of 5 points.Quinn pointed out 2nd starters rising often between 8 and 13 points.I know trainers who use patterns that improve horses up to that many points also.

To me they both serve one another.My definition of a prime bet is when a horse passes muster on basic speed/pace abilities,is accompanied by either a class angle or trainer pattern,and will be helped(or at least not hurt) by the probable pace.

PICSIX
12-01-2011, 08:31 AM
To be blunt, yes, they should help you win more. That doesn't mean they alone will make you a winner.

I agree, not by themselves.

cj
12-01-2011, 09:29 AM
I agree on the speed number part. It is when you get to the pace number stuff that you lose me. You can't make good pace numbers without good information. The charts that equibase puts out are pure crap when it comes to lengths back at the fractional calls. Even the running positions for horses other than the leader is highly suspect. Maybe some day we might get good charts, but that day is not going to be tomorrow or the next day.

I agree the data isn't great, but, and this is important, pace figures of those not contesting the pace aren't really very important most times in my opinion. I care about those close up, where errors are very small, much more than horses running well behind the pace.

Canarsie
12-01-2011, 11:59 AM
I've spent time around a lot of trainers, and most have a lot less clue about when the horse will win and lose than a few good bettors I know. As for form, good figures can certainly help in that regard.

I agree 100% here's a quick true story. A friend of mine announces at a harness track and a lady driver posted something on his Facebook page. She rarely runs at the Meadowlands but I always throw $2 across the board on any horse she has entered don't even look at the PP's. Well one year she popped once really good and she has the highest ROI at the M1 meet of course it was minimal starts. So when I wrote this on his FB page "highest ROI at M1" her response was "what's ROI"?

One time I hit a $70 horse at Yonkers and was talking to an old timer and said "they really put that one over". His response was "are you stupid the race fell right into their laps if they knew the horse was going to win it would have paid much less". The more I thought about it he was spot on. Yonkers handle was really low at the time.

pondman
12-01-2011, 12:18 PM
What about the class designations?




So how would a speed/pace person play :5: A racing delight in the 5th at Golden Gate (12/1). I see Peter Redecop with a trainer (Ledezma) the crowd doesn't bet. Cedillo riding. In from hollywood at mc32000. It's a hottie for me without looking at the performance.

It's in against both Baze and Gryder. The high beyers is the number 1. I'd expect a layover.

I'll bet it at the right price because the connection are pointing to this race.


But how does a speed/pace person look at it? Just curious...

If you watch the replay at CalRacing from the Sept 5th, you'll see P V closing about an 8 length gap. Sometime the calls don't reflect what actually is happening.

keilan
12-01-2011, 12:30 PM
How important are good numbers? Try playing x’s, DD, P3, P4, P5, P6 etc without them….

The chances of making “real money” playing the races today is next to slim and none with very good information! Over the years I’ve watched better then average players lose everything including their homes. This game will expose your flaws and almost everyone has them.

To thaskalos, I told cj 10 years ago that his numbers are worth ten times what he is charging! With the number of subscriptions five times still seems reasonable….

Capper Al
12-01-2011, 07:13 PM
I am not disagreeing, but in a game with a 20% rake, every few points helps, no?

Yeah, I agree. We should all use the numbers or apps that works the best for us. I have some friends that use your speed figures and swear by them. All I'm saying is the handicapper still has to figure out what's going on with a horse and the race.

Capper Al
12-01-2011, 07:20 PM
I don't even think figures are the first step.

Agree. Tom Ainslee and Brad Free both have said that the order to handicap is Form, Class, Speed, and Pace.

CincyHorseplayer
12-01-2011, 09:43 PM
Agree. Tom Ainslee and Brad Free both have said that the order to handicap is Form, Class, Speed, and Pace.

Al,you know me.I handicap once without figures and probable pace,then a 2nd time with them.When I land on the same horse twice I know I have something!

thaskalos
12-02-2011, 12:46 AM
Agree. Tom Ainslee and Brad Free both have said that the order to handicap is Form, Class, Speed, and Pace.
There is no widely accepted "order" to the handicapping process. It's all a matter of preference.

Nor can these different handicapping factors be analyzed individually, IMO.

They overlap each other.

Horses with rough-looking "form" often find themselves smiling for the camera in the winners circle, when given an adequate drop in class.

And horses with super-sharp form often languish at the back of the field...when their connections get overly optimistic.

"Form", without reference to class, speed and pace...is no form at all.

lamboguy
12-02-2011, 08:07 AM
horses that work bad run bad. a few years back against mind that bird, the 2 favorites for the kentucky derby worked awful and they ran awful

i have seen horses work to good and run bad, i saw funnycide
get away from his exercise rider and work in 58 3 days before the belmont stakes and he ran awful too.

so any number that you are going to use is all ways going to be subjective. it can only tell you what the horses ran in prior races. a beyer number from what i understand takes the whole race into consideration. often times a horse might win by multiple lengths and the race was basically over at the top of the stretch. you can compare that to basketball and garbage time, where the final score has nothing to do with the competitiveness of the game.

Overlay
12-02-2011, 08:49 AM
Has anyone (including cj) ever calculated impact values associated with his figures, or figure patterns or rankings? (I'm just curious as to whether it's been done -- not (necessarily) asking about the values themselves.)

cj
12-02-2011, 09:27 AM
Has anyone (including cj) ever calculated impact values associated with his figures, or figure patterns or rankings? (I'm just curious as to whether it's been done -- not (necessarily) asking about the values themselves.)

Yes, I've done and still do it. I'm more concerned with ROI than impact value, but even on the latter alone I would say figures are very strong. Patterns are not as good, but there are some positive ones that lead to a very nice ROI.

Overlay
12-02-2011, 09:31 AM
Thanks, cj.

classhandicapper
12-02-2011, 09:52 AM
Al,you know me.I handicap once without figures and probable pace,then a 2nd time with them.When I land on the same horse twice I know I have something!

Absolutely agree.

Gapfire
12-02-2011, 11:15 AM
Has anyone (including cj) ever calculated impact values associated with his figures, or figure patterns or rankings? (I'm just curious as to whether it's been done -- not (necessarily) asking about the values themselves.)

I have, and they factor into our Quickgap figures.

Gapfire
12-02-2011, 11:17 AM
Has anyone (including cj) ever calculated impact values associated with his figures, or figure patterns or rankings? (I'm just curious as to whether it's been done -- not (necessarily) asking about the values themselves.)

I run these on each distance, surface, and class.

Gapfire
12-02-2011, 11:30 AM
There is no widely accepted "order" to the handicapping process. It's all a matter of preference.

Nor can these different handicapping factors be analyzed individually, IMO.

They overlap each other.



IMO, I believe there is a statistical order in the handicapping process. However, it does change for each track, distance, surface, and class. That's why I believe database tracking of many factors at every track can lead one to a decided edge.

Tom
12-02-2011, 02:47 PM
Aren't some $10,000 claiming races won by "Beyers" in the 60s...while other $10,000 claiming races require an 80+ Beyer in order to visit the winners circle?

How accurate is that?


Are you betting classes or horses?
I think this is very reason you want good figures. There are no classes any more - not like there used to be.

Capper Al
12-02-2011, 02:52 PM
There is no widely accepted "order" to the handicapping process. It's all a matter of preference.

Nor can these different handicapping factors be analyzed individually, IMO.

They overlap each other.

Horses with rough-looking "form" often find themselves smiling for the camera in the winners circle, when given an adequate drop in class.

And horses with super-sharp form often languish at the back of the field...when their connections get overly optimistic.

"Form", without reference to class, speed and pace...is no form at all.

No argument here. Still the first thing I look at in the PPs is date last raced and follow the order (form, class, speed, and pace) and then put them altogther to get a picture.

Capper Al
12-02-2011, 03:06 PM
Al,you know me.I handicap once without figures and probable pace,then a 2nd time with them.When I land on the same horse twice I know I have something!

Double checking is good, and that's why you do so well. Double checking will get one off false speed ball figures. False speed ball figures happen with any speed figure system. How did that horse with a 100 speed fig get in this field of 80 rated horses? Double checking is one way to eliminate false speedsters. I do similar things by seeing how a horse rates with both class and speed.

CincyHorseplayer
12-02-2011, 08:15 PM
Double checking is good, and that's why you do so well. Double checking will get one off false speed ball figures. False speed ball figures happen with any speed figure system. How did that horse with a 100 speed fig get in this field of 80 rated horses? Double checking is one way to eliminate false speedsters. I do similar things by seeing how a horse rates with both class and speed.

I do OK,thanks Al!

I will say one thing and I emailed CJ when this happened in 2 consecutive Saturdays at Belmont.There were 2 competitive sprint fields.One was washed off the turf.The horse who won that race had a 100+ pace fig and a par speed fig.Won at 8-1.The other horse was posting consecutive 100-88 or so speed/pace and everybody else was 78-85 variety.Won by 12 at 6-1 and finished 2nd in a stakes at Saratoga I believe.

Had to go check,that horse was Dr. Disco.

Anyway,if at a bigtime track that attracts smart money that can get through the cracks,I'm definitely applauding the value of good figs.But indeed seeing the horse accompanied with a positive form or class or trainer angle,that's dig deep into the pocket time.I liken the scenario to how existentialist philosophers see human contradictions.Instead of looking at them as a conflict of drives they see them as an essence,a unity.

Capper Al
12-03-2011, 06:48 AM
Cincy,

I had you in mind when I posted players swear by CJ's speed figs. I upload Multicaps from BRIS, so I'm stuck with BRIS figs and DRF + variant. I would take Beyer over BRIS and (probably based on testimonies like yours) CJ's over Beyer, but it is too much of a hassle to splice the other figs into my app. I still prosper with not the best figs. I guess that has been the whole point to this thread.

fmolf
12-03-2011, 09:10 AM
Cincy,

I had you in mind when I posted players swear by CJ's speed figs. I upload Multicaps from BRIS, so I'm stuck with BRIS figs and DRF + variant. I would take Beyer over BRIS and (probably based on testimonies like yours) CJ's over Beyer, but it is too much of a hassle to splice the other figs into my app. I still prosper with not the best figs. I guess that has been the whole point to this thread.
I also use BRIS pp's and it is my belief that with continued use of the same figs(whichever ones you use) and study of the charts for the tracks you are playing,you can learn the strengths and weaknesses of the figs your using.Then figure this into your handicapping.I think consistency is the key here.Use the same makers figs,learn all you can about them,how they are made,what factors they use in making them,and how they calculate their variant and you should have an idea of who is fastest in any given race

thaskalos
12-03-2011, 11:59 AM
Are you betting classes or horses?
I think this is very reason you want good figures. There are no classes any more - not like there used to be.
I am betting HORSES...but within the concept of class.

It has occurred to me that horses don't often perform up to their capabilities when they are raised in class...even if this rise is a slight one.

IMO...(and I could be wrong here) the failure of these horses to reproduce their good form when going up in class has more to do with "trainer intent", than it has with the difficulties presented by the "new" class levels themselves.

The view that class is a "myth" in the modern game is a myopic one, IMO.

"Class" exists, and it affects the horseplayer's bottom line...even if it only exists in the trainer's mind.

Tom
12-03-2011, 03:36 PM
The idea of classes like we used to have is what I am referring to.
what is the par for a $75000b race? AOC NW1/25,000?

You can have totally diverse fields under the same conditions - so knowing the strong and weak fields is a plus.

CincyHorseplayer
12-03-2011, 06:33 PM
Cincy,

I had you in mind when I posted players swear by CJ's speed figs. I upload Multicaps from BRIS, so I'm stuck with BRIS figs and DRF + variant. I would take Beyer over BRIS and (probably based on testimonies like yours) CJ's over Beyer, but it is too much of a hassle to splice the other figs into my app. I still prosper with not the best figs. I guess that has been the whole point to this thread.

Al,I'll say this about CJ's figs.I know these low level Ohio tracks like the back of my hand and have often been suspicious of certain Beyer figs at these tracks.I know when a certain fig should be higher just from the records I keep and knowing the horses from that race.When CJ's figure contradicts Beyer,9 out of 10 times he's right.I went back and read Quinn's "Figure Handicapping" in the summer which was a tremendous help in sorting through the numbers.Now there is no way I could live without them.My only fear is CJ will stop making them!!It's definitely worth the dough.

Overlay
12-03-2011, 06:36 PM
Al,you know me.I handicap once without figures and probable pace,then a 2nd time with them.When I land on the same horse twice I know I have something!
I try to do the same thing (time permitting) with statistics, and then with the qualitative results of asking the Davidowitz question ("What is he doing in today's race?"). But it's more difficult for me to put a fair-odds figure on non-quantitative analysis involving intuition or experience.

bob60566
12-03-2011, 06:40 PM
Al,I'll say this about CJ's figs.I know these low level Ohio tracks like the back of my hand and have often been suspicious of certain Beyer figs at these tracks.I know when a certain fig should be higher just from the records I keep and knowing the horses from that race.When CJ's figure contradicts Beyer,9 out of 10 times he's right.I went back and read Quinn's "Figure Handicapping" in the summer which was a tremendous help in sorting through the numbers.Now there is no way I could live without them.My only fear is CJ will stop making them!!It's definitely worth the dough.

Cindy

How do they fare at Mountineer which is my favourite track and playing live tonight under selections.

Mac:)

CincyHorseplayer
12-04-2011, 12:42 PM
Cindy

How do they fare at Mountineer which is my favourite track and playing live tonight under selections.

Mac:)

Who the hell is Cindy?!!

bob60566
12-04-2011, 01:42 PM
Who the hell is Cindy?!!

My apoligies CincyHorseplayer typo

Mac:ThmbDown:

CincyHorseplayer
12-04-2011, 03:02 PM
My apoligies CincyHorseplayer typo

Mac:ThmbDown:

No problem Bob.I thought it was funny actually!Had to point it out though.

I'm always looking at shippers from the Mountain and wondering about that track but have never handicapped a card there.

CincyHorseplayer
12-04-2011, 03:06 PM
I try to do the same thing (time permitting) with statistics, and then with the qualitative results of asking the Davidowitz question ("What is he doing in today's race?"). But it's more difficult for me to put a fair-odds figure on non-quantitative analysis involving intuition or experience.

If I look at numbers first my whole perspective is warped.After the fact it is enhanced.I definitely believe in the separation of church and state.

bob60566
12-04-2011, 03:23 PM
No problem Bob.I thought it was funny actually!Had to point it out though.

I'm always looking at shippers from the Mountain and wondering about that track but have never handicapped a card there.

Was the same up to two years ago and now my #1 track but closes in three weeks till March.

Now do not call me Sheila.

Mac:)