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tzipi
11-30-2011, 12:14 PM
Some horse I like today. Some have exotic value.


Race 1:
:4: Mr. Magenta- Likes the innner and has good int numbers. Value is :7: Dr. W. shortening up for Brown.

Race 2:
:5: Last minute Rose- In from Monmouth for Servis off the claim.

Race 3:
Can't see Miss Tequila or EZ Passer losing this race. No value race.

Race 4:
Liked :8: Chick in Slacks for some nice value but they are off the turf. So probably a non bet.

Race 5:
:2: Anew- A stakes winning horse who has been gone for 4 years came back in a claimer and drops again. Either he's going to win solidly or the owners brought a one time talent horse back after 4 yrs to suffer in botttom claimers. I see a win. I hope so for the horses sake.

Race 7:
:5: Summer Flick- Has nice int numbers and drops a bit for this race off a layoff. Problem is he might need a race. Iffy bet.

Race 8:
Glacier Bay or War Hoot- Both have good solid numbers for this field and both are shortening up. Glacier Bay is off the claim for Levine. Nicely spotted.

Race 9:
:8: Storm Island gets back to his preferred surface and gets class relief. Cornelio on for rice and Storm has some nice int numbers. Value horse will be :10: True Linnet who could put in a good run for Aquilino here.


Good Luck to all today :)
tzipi
11-30-2011, 12:25 PM
Fast opening fractions and the closers just went nowhere. Back to the speed favoring inner it looks like.
tzipi
11-30-2011, 02:24 PM
So the owners brought back Anew, a stakes horse off of a FOUR year layoff to be a bottom level claimer?? Wow.
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 02:28 PM
So the owners brought back Anew, a stakes horse off of a FOUR year layoff to be a bottom level claimer?? Wow.
Unreal huh?
The very definition of the word underlay.
I should have bet the race.
tzipi
11-30-2011, 02:41 PM
Unreal huh?
The very definition of the word underlay.
I should have bet the race.

Yeah, I used him a bit but I should've stayed completely away. You are right though about him being the very definition of the word underlay :ThmbUp: . They should retire him. Can't see why its worth it to the owners to risk the horses well being to lose basement level claimers now.
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 03:12 PM
I like the :4: and :6:

:4: is a wire to wire threat
:6: has run well enough to be competitive and needed that last race, nice trip today
theguarantee
11-30-2011, 03:14 PM
The :4: seems to be taking the most money.

I like the :1: myself.
theguarantee
11-30-2011, 03:31 PM
I think One Note Samba is kind of the counter-intuitive play here in the 8th. Sometimes it becomes kind of too obvious to not like the small priced ML 4 straight winner stretching out for the first time. But he's 4/4 since moving to the turf and has run races, sprints I know, that are just better than these. Has also handled less than firm turf before, should be capable of winning on or just off the pace and is being completely disrespected in the betting so far...
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 03:39 PM
I will be using the :4: and also the obvious :1: , but I'm gonna key on the :5: to get a nice off the pace inside trip behind a crowded pace and finish well to get a big piece...5-1 right now but i won't take any price less than that.
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 03:52 PM
I will be using the :4: and also the obvious :1: , but I'm gonna key on the :5: to get a nice off the pace inside trip behind a crowded pace and finish well to get a big piece...5-1 right now but i won't take any price less than that.
Darn !

Got 10-1 on my :5: and missed the winner :bang:
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 04:03 PM
Wouldn't bet this race with Monopoly money, but in a gun to the head situation i would swang for it with the :5: or :7: hoping for a wire job.
theguarantee
11-30-2011, 04:11 PM
Yeah wouldn't bet it either, but if forced to would take a stab that the :10: for some reason takes to dirt. Pretty steep drop in class level from the last three fields I feel and the track seems to be playing just fine for off the pace types...if Storm Island is backing up late, seems as likely as any to be keeping on and currently at 13/1.
tzipi
11-30-2011, 04:14 PM
Going with the :8: and :5: here with a little of the :10: . Lets see if Melin Bay can't wake up a bit on the inner.
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 04:15 PM
The :5: beats the cutoff date for last win by one day, and thus becomes eligible.
PhantomOnTour
11-30-2011, 04:19 PM
Yeah wouldn't bet it either, but if forced to would take a stab that the :10: for some reason takes to dirt. Pretty steep drop in class level from the last three fields I feel and the track seems to be playing just fine for off the pace types...if Storm Island is backing up late, seems as likely as any to be keeping on and currently at 13/1.

Yep...
money saved there...would never have used French Transition