Bad November

[cosmo96]

For me November has been terrible, I did awful with the Breeders Cup. What followed was as bad or worse. I tried everything, but nothing worked. i couldn't win a one horse race. I finally decided to quit playing. Perhaps it's due to the weather, opening and closing of tracks, shippers, or just plain bad racing luck. Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.

[Overlay]

Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.
That would apply to every losing political candidate, wouldn't it? (Sorry, just trying to cheer you up.)

I think we've all been there (if not in November, at some other time of the year). As Beyer said, this game will keep you humble.

The Breeders' Cup is a marquee event, of course, and a natural wager magnet, but is also tailor-made for unpredictability, with horses coming from all over the world, running against rivals they may never have seen before (or may never see again), and with a wide variety of conditioning and preparation strategies that can be a mystery to evaluate. And doing poorly there can cast a shadow over the whole month.

The only thing that I can suggest is an analysis of results, as well as your wagering behavior, to determine what changes or patterns (compared to when you were being more successful) might have accounted for your problems; whether your results lay outside the boundaries of normally expected variance; and, if so, what you need to do to correct them. Take the winter off (as it appears you might have a start on doing) and begin fresh in the spring (that is, if you're not depending on year-round play for income).

[lamboguy]

i think its pretty tough to play on a daily basis in november and look for value. you have tracks that are at the end of their meets after a long summer of racing, the horses that got roughed up might look like value, but they have had it, so unless you have adjusted your model for that, you might have problems.

the breeders cup is not easy to start out with. horses come from all over, some can make the needed adjustments, while others can't.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cosmo I'm right there with you.Except it's only Chruchill Downs that is killing me.Everywhere else I have been doing OK and I've stretched out a little playing Turf paradise and Zia and a little more Hawthorne.I usually always have a good meet at Beulah in the fall.Little track in home state has been good to me.And it has been this season.

Even with blasting off on what I thought was an easy money maker in Marketing Mix,Churchill has stoned me for a 75% loss since they reopened.That's the worse losing % for me since Oaklawn park in 2002.

I'm not perturbed though.I'm simply going to reign the level and quantity of bets in for a week or so,then try to finish the year out strong.It's been good overall.My focus is going south and west.I find better outcomes in better weather.

Hang in there man!

Rod

[JustRalph]

For me November has been terrible, I did awful with the Breeders Cup. What followed was as bad or worse. I tried everything, but nothing worked. i couldn't win a one horse race. I finally decided to quit playing. Perhaps it's due to the weather, opening and closing of tracks, shippers, or just plain bad racing luck. Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.

hasn't been a barrel of fun here either......but I am not getting killed. Had some good fun at Laurel Park on Turkey Day.........

Take break and come back swinging......... :ThmbUp:

[redshift1]

For me November has been terrible, I did awful with the Breeders Cup. What followed was as bad or worse. I tried everything, but nothing worked. i couldn't win a one horse race. I finally decided to quit playing. Perhaps it's due to the weather, opening and closing of tracks, shippers, or just plain bad racing luck. Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.

I once had 64 consecutive losing bets including:

Multiple disqualifications.

Multiple horses interfered with.

Multiple losses by a nose.

If i remember correctly it was over a 3-4 week period late in the season at Hollywood Park. Nothing like seeing your 20-1 shot win by open lengths then get disqualified for interference at the break.

.

[classhandicapper]

For me November has been terrible, I did awful with the Breeders Cup. What followed was as bad or worse. I tried everything, but nothing worked. i couldn't win a one horse race. I finally decided to quit playing. Perhaps it's due to the weather, opening and closing of tracks, shippers, or just plain bad racing luck. Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.

Sounds like my October.

November has been better for me.

[thaskalos]

For me November has been terrible, I did awful with the Breeders Cup. What followed was as bad or worse. I tried everything, but nothing worked. i couldn't win a one horse race. I finally decided to quit playing. Perhaps it's due to the weather, opening and closing of tracks, shippers, or just plain bad racing luck. Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.
A bad month is not an unusual occurrence...and we usually turn it into a "terrible" month by losing our composure and pressing our bets to get even.

If you were doing well in the months before November, then just shake it off and stick to your game plan.

If your losing streak is more prolonged, or if you feel that you are too upset to function effectively...then a break from the game is highly recommended.

Resume wagering only when your head clears up, and you can put November's losses behind you.

[jk3521]

Unfortunately, I only decide to take a"break" when I'm "broke" ! :lol:

[Robert Goren]

The inner track at AQU opens next week and all will be right with the world.

[Overlay]

Has anyone else had a terrible November? If so I would like to hear about it.
One more attempt at humor:

"Did you hear that Humpty Dumpty had a great fall?"
"Yeah, but he had a lousy winter."

[Tom]

The inner track at AQU opens next week and all will be right with the world.

Note to self: buy bullets today.

* * *

I don't want to say November was a bad month, but it was "Black Groundhog's Day" every day.

[Charli125]

Cosmo I'm right there with you.Except it's only Chruchill Downs that is killing me.Everywhere else I have been doing OK and I've stretched out a little playing Turf paradise and Zia and a little more Hawthorne.I usually always have a good meet at Beulah in the fall.Little track in home state has been good to me.And it has been this season.

Even with blasting off on what I thought was an easy money maker in Marketing Mix,Churchill has stoned me for a 75% loss since they reopened.That's the worse losing % for me since Oaklawn park in 2002.

I'm not perturbed though.I'm simply going to reign the level and quantity of bets in for a week or so,then try to finish the year out strong.It's been good overall.My focus is going south and west.I find better outcomes in better weather.

Hang in there man!

Rod

I'm doing pretty well this month with the exception of Churchill same as you. Weird how sometimes a formerly profitable track can turn on you.

To answer the main question though, a bad month isn't that unusual(at least for me). I run my plays by month and I see that August through October are my worst months, and I'm rarely profitable in those 3 months. So, I decrease my betting during that time and spend more during the months that I do well.

[NJ Stinks]

To be fair I wouldn't say I was this close most of the time this month but losing that Turallure photo illustrates my November frustration pretty well.

[Vinman]

I was once again reminded that no one makes money in the Breeders' Cup unless you are extraordinarily lucky or you are part of a group play on a nice paying exotic. For me it was the $42 horse from Calder on Friday in the F/M Sprint that kept me from cashing a nice Pick 4....shoulda had her in there.

I plan on playing the 50 centers from GP and Tampa starting next weekend. From now until Dec 4, when Woodbine closes, I'm focusing exclusively on their 20 cent Pick 4's, (they have 20 cent supers too) which recently became available in the U.S. I know some here are not fans of low minimums on these bets, because they supposedly "dumb down" the payoffs, but what a 20 cent minimum also does is raise the bar for a signer to the equivalent of $3,000 for a $1.00 wager. I'll take that every time.

I'm looking forward to playing 20 cent P4's at a USA track soon....someone will put one in. I was thinking what a good fit such a bet would be for say, Turfway, Mountaineer or Charlestown. We'll see.

Vinman

[pondman]

My net is down, but as a % my ROI is about the same as last year.

I've made far less bets this November than last year and passing on many more races. The quality of racing in California, especially Golden Gate has gone into the sewer. The cards are filled with $4,000 claimers. The number of bettable turf races are down. The allowance races are filled with horses which should be in claiming races. High end owners aren't going to breed horses for this environment. It's beginning to look like Mountaineer in California.

[redshift1]

I was once again reminded that no one makes money in the Breeders' Cup unless you are extraordinarily lucky or you are part of a group play on a nice paying exotic.

Vinman

It might seem that way but I guarantee it's not the case.

[Valuist]

Cosmo I'm right there with you.Except it's only Chruchill Downs that is killing me.Everywhere else I have been doing OK and I've stretched out a little playing Turf paradise and Zia and a little more Hawthorne.I usually always have a good meet at Beulah in the fall.Little track in home state has been good to me.And it has been this season.

Churchill has stoned me for a 75% loss since they reopened.That's the worse losing % for me since Oaklawn park in 2002.


Rod

Cincy-

There's a reason (or reasons) why the fall CD meet is so tough. I used to love this meet, and I've done well betting the Breeders Cup there the last 2 years. But the everyday cards are very difficult. I chalk much of that up to the peripheral fallout of synthetic racing. Look at where most of the CD horses have been running......Keeneland, Arlington and Turfway. Many of these are 2 and 3 year olds with little form or experience on real dirt. Just a huge difference. Also, there's a lot of 2 year old races. Just too much guesswork in the fall CD meet. I'm playing it today but VERY lightly. Mostly watching these races so I have some opinions when these horses run again at GP or FG.

The big fields make it enticing, but just learn to stay away from fall CD.

[Ocala Mike]

To be fair I wouldn't say I was this close most of the time this month but losing that Turallure photo illustrates my November frustration pretty well.

I too have had a very rough November and, like NJ Stinks, I mark losing the same photo as the moment it all came apart. Gnawing at me is the fact that I often take an exacta "back wheel" as a place bet when I back a decent price horse like that, but couldn't see past Goldikova or Gio Ponti that day.
This too shall pass!


Ocala Mike :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm doing pretty well this month with the exception of Churchill same as you. Weird how sometimes a formerly profitable track can turn on you.

To answer the main question though, a bad month isn't that unusual(at least for me). I run my plays by month and I see that August through October are my worst months, and I'm rarely profitable in those 3 months. So, I decrease my betting during that time and spend more during the months that I do well.

It is strange.I think it's Churchill fall.I tear it up pretty good in the spring and have for years.

My "Bad" month was a 36% loss.Not the end of the world but when holding over a 40% ROI on the year it upset the hell out of me.

But after a good night's sleep and reflecting back on it,it was my fault.Too much crash course in the morning stuff.Too much to do without at least a 2 hour look the night before for me.I should know better.Spending most of the time preparing and betting,not thinking.I'll feel rejuvenated when Tampa opens next Saturday and I focus on that track and Beulah.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cincy-

There's a reason (or reasons) why the fall CD meet is so tough. I used to love this meet, and I've done well betting the Breeders Cup there the last 2 years. But the everyday cards are very difficult. I chalk much of that up to the peripheral fallout of synthetic racing. Look at where most of the CD horses have been running......Keeneland, Arlington and Turfway. Many of these are 2 and 3 year olds with little form or experience on real dirt. Just a huge difference. Also, there's a lot of 2 year old races. Just too much guesswork in the fall CD meet. I'm playing it today but VERY lightly. Mostly watching these races so I have some opinions when these horses run again at GP or FG.

The big fields make it enticing, but just learn to stay away from fall CD.

Thanks for the tip.I did so well there this spring I was completely over aggressive.I'm usually cool as a cucumber and can laugh when some of my horses tank or some completely ridiculous result runs in.It's been a while since I've been redfaced and steaming!It was undermining me.I haven't bet my own money since April and watching a big chunk of it dwindle away was not fun.I needed a step back and breathe moment for sure.

"Peripheral fallout of synthetic racing".I hear that.It creates opportunities but a lot of guesswork too.In maturing horses the surface switches can be dramatically good and bad.

Just a small stumbling block.What's strange is Kentucky is hardly ever getting my money anymore.I don't bet any maintrack nonstakes races at Keeneland.I have boycotted Turfway for years with poly and their crap treatment of me ontrack.Now I'll be slightly wary of Churchill next fall.

[Some_One]

Pending a real bad day on Sunday, looks like I'll be up 100 units/bets for November. Woodbine and Turf Paradise has been real good to me so far. One thing I'm doing now is avoiding Mdn's, sure longshots will come in those races, but usually they're shocks to me, at least the longshots that come in the non-mdn races I'm playing make much more logical sense.

[Tom]

After this month, I just can't wait to log onto the ADW for more action today.

[cosmo96]

I am happy to report that today I bet Hollywood Park at Lebanon Raceway, and did very well. Slump Over????

[Overlay]

I am happy to report that today I bet Hollywood Park at Lebanon Raceway, and did very well. Slump Over????
The only thing that could have possibly made it any better would have been if you had also paid a visit to Kash's Bargain Barn (where you save cash with Kash!) and spoken personally with Kash Amburgy, the old country boy (and also preacher) from South L-L-L-Lebanon, Ohio (although I don't imagine that Kash is doing much talking with anyone these days, since my last recollection of him is from about 40 years ago, and he was no spring chicken then).

0AOMZkhBbFM

[cosmo96]

Overlay,

Kash is long gone. I'm glad you know about our parrt of the country. Please, share some thoughts and opipnions.

Thank you

[Overlay]

Cincinnati will always be my "home town" (no matter where I live) since I grew up there until high school graduation (from Walnut Hills High) in 1972. From 1960 until 1972, my mom and I lived initially in North Avondale (where she worked at the Children's Psychiatric Center, which was a part of Jewish Hospital on Harvey Avenue)(and, no, I was not a patient there!), and where I went to first and second grades at North Avondale School, and was about the only kid in my class who was not either Jewish or black); Clifton (just off of Central Parkway)(Clifton School for 3rd, 4th, and 5th grades); Price Hill (at the intersection of Grand and Warsaw Avenues in the (at that time) redneck quarter of town)(where I was bused across town for my sixth-grade year to College Preparatory School (a private school off Madison Road that had formerly been an all-girl school from kindergarten up through twelfth grade, but that had just (at that time) started admitting boys up to sixth grade, and that is now part of the three-campus Seven Hills School)(I used to love those long bus rides home, since I always had a weakness for older women!), and from where I started at Walnut Hills in 1966); and Kennedy Heights out along Montgomery Road (in 1971). I went off to college in Southern California in September, 1972, and my mom changed jobs very shortly thereafter, moving to New York City (Manhattan)(where I also lived for about 15 months following college graduation). Since then, I have only been back to Cincinnati on visits (although I may be returning again for my 40-year high-school class reunion this fall)(where have the years gone?). But my first girlfriend (who is now on her third (or is it fourth?) husband)(I've lost count!) lived in Hyde Park, my first solo drive was from my home on Rogers Park Place (off Montgomery Road) out to Kenwood Mall, and I went to my first baseball game at Crosley Field, had my first date at Riverfront Stadium, and went to my first horse race at River Downs, and you never forget things like that!

Sorry to rattle on, but you asked for it! :)

[BombsAway Bob]

After this month, I just can't wait to log onto the ADW for more action today.
Seriously... just watched my two runners in payout leg of P4
run second/third at Los Al, which would have at least saved
the weekend. Daily Diary logs are a necessary evil, but when
you are in red ink 29-of-31 days in Oct. & 24-of-26 in Nov.,
W2Gs won are like headlights fading away in the rear-view mirror!

[cosmo96]

I am from Cincinnati. But, now I live in Xenia. I consider Cincinnati home. It's a shame that some people think we are backwoods. Although, we've lost a lot of horses and connections, I still love River Downs. There is nothing like a Reds game.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I am from Cincinnati. But, now I live in Xenia. I consider Cincinnati home. It's a shame that some people think we are backwoods. Although, we've lost a lot of horses and connections, I still love River Downs. There is nothing like a Reds game.

There are more than a handful of players from around here on this board.10 months of live racing will do that!I've lived in other places but Cincinnati is my home too.I have a Twain like bond with the river and love the Reds.All this works for me.