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View Full Version : Clark H. (gr. 1) anyone?

precocity
11-25-2011, 10:42 AM
looking forward for this one, kinda leaning towards RULER ON ICE- :1:
pics to come... :cool:
slew101
11-25-2011, 11:26 AM
I like Ruler on Ice as well. Had him in the BC Classic and thought he ran a big race. Will play with Wise Dan (can't leave any Lopresti horses out in big races) and Mister Mardi Gras for a price horse.
precocity
11-25-2011, 11:26 AM
looking forward for this one, kinda leaning towards RULER ON ICE- :1:
pics to come... :cool:

2$ tri box
:1: :12: :6: :8: :11:
precocity
11-25-2011, 11:28 AM
I like Ruler on Ice as well. Had him in the BC Classic and thought he ran a big race. Will play with Wise Dan (can't leave any Lopresti horses out in big races) and Mister Mardi Gras for a price horse.
yep ROI is knocking on the door..going across on him..
ManU918
11-25-2011, 02:19 PM
I hate even mentioning a horse that is 5/2 ML because for the most part I stay away from the chalk, but I think Flat Out is the play here.
tbwinner
11-25-2011, 02:33 PM
I'm playing Mission Impazible if the price is right....has more time than the BC contenders and nice works between. Form shaping for a big move forward.
Ted Craven
11-25-2011, 02:40 PM
I'll be looking for value among the #1, #2 and #11

http://rdss2.com/images/pa/cd1125-11a.png
ten2oneormore
11-25-2011, 02:41 PM
I'm playing Mission Impazible if the price is right....has more time than the BC contenders and nice works between. Form shaping for a big move forward.

Like him too and may take a stab with Pleasant Prince.
kev
11-25-2011, 03:24 PM
I'll take Headache :8: at 12-1ml.
Tom
11-25-2011, 04:06 PM
I'm going with Demarcat and Ruler on Ice.
Tom
11-25-2011, 05:47 PM
[QUOTE=Ted Craven]I'll be looking for value among the #1, #2 and #11

Nice call.
classhandicapper
11-25-2011, 05:52 PM
It appears that Flat Out is "over the top" from going to all the dances this summer and fall. One mediocre race on a kind of fluky wet fast track at 10F was semi excusable, not two races. Time for a rest if they intend on racing him again next year.

I didn't see many of the races today, but from the charts it appeared that there was an "outside" flow to the races. Anyone notice anything?
Ted Craven
11-25-2011, 06:01 PM
I bet on #1 and #11 in the Win pool, but blew an Exacta box without Mission Impazible. Small loss.

Ted
overthehill
11-25-2011, 08:01 PM
I thought it was a tough assignment to go from being cranked up for the 1 1/4 mile of the breeders cup with all the fanfare and then have to run in stake race against a sharp horse in the winner within a short time. I thought the horse did well to run 3rd and the triple was amazingly generous for those fortunate enough to have it.
CincyHorseplayer
11-25-2011, 09:22 PM
With a sprinter in here that would string the field out and not what I thought was a lot of quality speed,I thought Mission Impazible was a solid play.I went the conservative route though and keyed off Flat Out taking the 2 back and forth in exactas and savers with FO and nearly everyone else.

It almost worked.I just didn't see WD running like he did.That last 16th he looked pretty damn good.
CincyHorseplayer
11-25-2011, 09:26 PM
It appears that Flat Out is "over the top" from going to all the dances this summer and fall. One mediocre race on a kind of fluky wet fast track at 10F was semi excusable, not two races. Time for a rest if they intend on racing him again next year.

I didn't see many of the races today, but from the charts it appeared that there was an "outside" flow to the races. Anyone notice anything?

I noticed a lot of speed horses ready to die at the top of the stretch.Outside was not better IMO.I saw enough wide moves fail.There were some solid contenders on the outside today.
Tom
11-25-2011, 10:28 PM
It appears that Flat Out is "over the top" from going to all the dances this summer and fall. One mediocre race on a kind of fluky wet fast track at 10F was semi excusable, not two races. Time for a rest if they intend on racing him again next year.

I didn't see many of the races today, but from the charts it appeared that there was an "outside" flow to the races. Anyone notice anything?

Look at Flat out's PPS - cross off all the races at other than CD.
Now cross off all CD races.

I don't think form is his problem. He just can't run at CD. He was a complete toss for me today. Although, so was the winner - :bang: - I saw nothing that would make me bet him, and after the fact, I still don't.
Ted Craven
11-25-2011, 10:53 PM
Interestingly, the top 3 finishers (and a nice $375 tri) were also the top 3 (and ties) Win odds (see tote section at far right, 'Live' column). Unfortunately, this comprised 5 horses. Fortunately, a little tote pool interrelationship analysis (Tx, far right column) identifies the top 3 finishers again, with Mission Impazible the subject of some confident money tilted towards the Win pool, though still at 7-1 (as of 0 MTP).

To have most confidence in a post-time favourite (Flat Out) - I would really like to see at least 2 things: distribution of pool monies confirming the Win pool favouritism, and the favourite should be about top ranked on my odds line. The fact that FO was neither, means whatever strengths he may have, he does have some defects, i.e. a vulnerable favourite - and our favourite kind!

One thing I learned from Dave Schwartz' 'Basics of Winning' series: one way to decide if a race is bettable is if the favourite is ranked less than tops (or top 2? - something like that). OK, I blew the analysis on that #2 horse, but that left us a pair of 9/2s ranked better than a potentially vulnerable favourite. Not a bad reason to enter a bet. I find that a tote pool interrelationship analysis often provides confirmative clues to one's other analysis. Sometimes it's not enough, but it was valuable here.

I didn't pay attention to it though, and lost the exacta (and didn't even try for the tri).


http://rdss2.com/images/pa/cd1125-11.tx.png
classhandicapper
11-26-2011, 01:55 AM
Look at Flat out's PPS - cross off all the races at other than CD.
Now cross off all CD races.

I don't think form is his problem. He just can't run at CD. He was a complete toss for me today. Although, so was the winner - :bang: - I saw nothing that would make me bet him, and after the fact, I still don't.

I would go along with that except I played him out of the Stephen Foster because I thought he ran really well that day. He made a really nice move and may have even poked his head in front between calls in the stretch while racing on what I thought was the worst part of the track. It's possible you are right, but I'm not convinced his form isn't just heading south.

I'm glad I didn't play the race because I wouldn't have had the winner at that price.