Winning % for each rank?

[JJMartin]

What are the average winning percentages for each position in the betting ranks from 1st fav to 12th?

[bob60566]

What are the average winning percentages for each position in the betting ranks from 1st fav to 12th?

If you check the Bris past performances stats on there race card it gives them every race but not on there basic card.

Mac:)

[Jeff P]

Calendar Year 2011 - thoroughbreds only - current through end of day today - Thurs Nov 24, 2011

First, all starters in the database:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY


------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Data Summary Win Place Show
------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Mutuel Totals 551228.60 554135.10 554466.10
Bet -732394.00 -732394.00 -732394.00
Gain -181165.40 -178258.90 -177927.90

Wins 46403 92330 135893
Plays 366197 366197 366197
PCT .1267 .2521 .3711

ROI 0.7526 0.7566 0.7571
Avg Mut 11.88 6.00 4.08


Next, the above info broken out by odds rank:

By: Odds Rank

---- --------- -------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
---- --------- -------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------
1 -14860.60 95166.00 0.8438 17536 47583 .3685 2.9084
2 -15396.80 90680.00 0.8302 9800 45340 .2161 1.7057
3 -18887.80 90794.00 0.7920 6669 45397 .1469 1.1593
4 -19895.10 90594.00 0.7804 4707 45297 .1039 0.8201
5 -23015.50 89570.00 0.7430 3195 44785 .0713 0.5630
6 -23645.30 84156.00 0.7190 2083 42078 .0495 0.3907
7 -21090.10 70050.00 0.6989 1215 35025 .0347 0.2738
8 -17560.90 51536.00 0.6592 659 25768 .0256 0.2018
9 -12258.10 34348.00 0.6431 325 17174 .0189 0.1493
10 -8758.10 20726.00 0.5774 135 10363 .0130 0.1028
11 -3376.90 9042.00 0.6265 56 4521 .0124 0.0978
12 -2107.20 4770.00 0.5582 20 2385 .0084 0.0662
13 -3.00 652.00 0.9954 3 326 .0092 0.0726
14 -290.00 290.00 0.0000 0 145 .0000 0.0000
15 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
16 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
17 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
19+ -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000



-jp

.

[JJMartin]

JP, Thanks!

[bob60566]

[QUOTE=Jeff P]Calendar Year 2011 - thoroughbreds only - current through end of day today - Thurs Nov 24, 2011

First, all starters in the database:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY


------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Data Summary Win Place Show
------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Mutuel Totals 551228.60 554135.10 554466.10
Bet -732394.00 -732394.00 -732394.00
Gain -181165.40 -178258.90 -177927.90

Wins 46403 92330 135893
Plays 366197 366197 366197
PCT .1267 .2521 .3711

ROI 0.7526 0.7566 0.7571
Avg Mut 11.88 6.00 4.08


Next, the above info broken out by odds rank:

By: Odds Rank

---- --------- -------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
---- --------- -------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------
1 -14860.60 95166.00 0.8438 17536 47583 .3685 2.9084
2 -15396.80 90680.00 0.8302 9800 45340 .2161 1.7057
3 -18887.80 90794.00 0.7920 6669 45397 .1469 1.1593
4 -19895.10 90594.00 0.7804 4707 45297 .1039 0.8201
5 -23015.50 89570.00 0.7430 3195 44785 .0713 0.5630
6 -23645.30 84156.00 0.7190 2083 42078 .0495 0.3907
7 -21090.10 70050.00 0.6989 1215 35025 .0347 0.2738
8 -17560.90 51536.00 0.6592 659 25768 .0256 0.2018
9 -12258.10 34348.00 0.6431 325 17174 .0189 0.1493
10 -8758.10 20726.00 0.5774 135 10363 .0130 0.1028
11 -3376.90 9042.00 0.6265 56 4521 .0124 0.0978
12 -2107.20 4770.00 0.5582 20 2385 .0084 0.0662
13 -3.00 652.00 0.9954 3 326 .0092 0.0726
14 -290.00 290.00 0.0000 0 145 .0000 0.0000
15 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
16 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
17 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
19+ -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000



-jp

I see the above information which is accurate how is it relevant to selecting the horses Friday at Fair Grounds race six as A example.
Mac:confused:

[PaceAdvantage]

I see the above information which is accurate how is it relevant to selecting the horses Friday at Fair Grounds race six as A example.Is this a serious question? Me thinks not...but just for the record, nobody said it was relevant to picking the winner in the 6th at FG...

[JohnGalt1]

Calendar Year 2011 - thoroughbreds only - current through end of day today - Thurs Nov 24, 2011

First, all starters in the database:

Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY


------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Data Summary Win Place Show
------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Mutuel Totals 551228.60 554135.10 554466.10
Bet -732394.00 -732394.00 -732394.00
Gain -181165.40 -178258.90 -177927.90

Wins 46403 92330 135893
Plays 366197 366197 366197
PCT .1267 .2521 .3711

ROI 0.7526 0.7566 0.7571
Avg Mut 11.88 6.00 4.08


Next, the above info broken out by odds rank:

By: Odds Rank

---- --------- -------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------
Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
---- --------- -------- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------
1 -14860.60 95166.00 0.8438 17536 47583 .3685 2.9084
2 -15396.80 90680.00 0.8302 9800 45340 .2161 1.7057
3 -18887.80 90794.00 0.7920 6669 45397 .1469 1.1593
4 -19895.10 90594.00 0.7804 4707 45297 .1039 0.8201
5 -23015.50 89570.00 0.7430 3195 44785 .0713 0.5630
6 -23645.30 84156.00 0.7190 2083 42078 .0495 0.3907
7 -21090.10 70050.00 0.6989 1215 35025 .0347 0.2738
8 -17560.90 51536.00 0.6592 659 25768 .0256 0.2018
9 -12258.10 34348.00 0.6431 325 17174 .0189 0.1493
10 -8758.10 20726.00 0.5774 135 10363 .0130 0.1028
11 -3376.90 9042.00 0.6265 56 4521 .0124 0.0978
12 -2107.20 4770.00 0.5582 20 2385 .0084 0.0662
13 -3.00 652.00 0.9954 3 326 .0092 0.0726
14 -290.00 290.00 0.0000 0 145 .0000 0.0000
15 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
16 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000
17 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
18 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000
19+ -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000 0.0000



-jp

.


The thing I found interescting is adding the three favorites winning percentages comes to .7315, or 73% one of the top 3 favorites wins.

This is higher than the usually stated 67%.

Jeff, is 2011 an anomaly?

It reminds me of William L. Scott's first book "Investing at the Race Track" where he only bet on one of the three favorites using the method in that book, (which he later discarded in "Total Victory at the Track.)

[cj]

The thing I found interescting is adding the three favorites winning percentages comes to .7315, or 73% one of the top 3 favorites wins.

This is higher than the usually stated 67%.

Jeff, is 2011 an anomaly?

It reminds me of William L. Scott's first book "Investing at the Race Track" where he only bet on one of the three favorites using the method in that book, (which he later discarded in "Total Victory at the Track.)

This has been changing gradually the last several years.

[Overlay]

This has been changing gradually the last several years.
Mostly due (I would think) to a combination of smaller fields (especially compared to the time when Scott wrote), plus having more information available to the handicapper.

[stu]

Jeff,

Of the 539 winners who were 9th or higher in the post time odds (PTO-9), which category of races were most represented? Stakes/Maidens? Short/Long? Turf/Dirt?

Just curious which groups were producing the most bombs

stu

[davew]

Jeff P, that is a cool chart

but would be better if specific for # of betting interests in race

could you do one for 6 entries, 7 entries, and 8 entries?

[Charli125]

Jeff P, that is a cool chart

but would be better if specific for # of betting interests in race

could you do one for 6 entries, 7 entries, and 8 entries?

I think this is what you're looking for.


Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None


Wins 54700 108850 160140
Plays 430639 430639 430639
PCT .1270 .2528 .3719

ROI 0.7520 0.7561 0.7568
Avg Mut 11.84 5.98 4.07


By: Field Size

Field Size Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
2 -8.20 32.00 0.7438 8 16 .5000 3.9364
3 -144.90 444.00 0.6736 75 222 .3378 2.6597
4 -1372.70 5248.00 0.7384 661 2624 .2519 1.9832
5 -8489.80 32610.00 0.7397 3283 16305 .2013 1.5852
6 -26275.70 102576.00 0.7438 8645 51288 .1686 1.3270
7 -38378.10 153636.00 0.7502 11139 76818 .1450 1.1416
8 -42362.70 162640.00 0.7395 10371 81320 .1275 1.0040
9 -35152.30 144324.00 0.7564 8175 72162 .1133 0.8919
10 -33491.00 139160.00 0.7593 7059 69580 .1015 0.7987
11 -13111.60 54318.00 0.7586 2529 27159 .0931 0.7331
12 -12611.90 56208.00 0.7756 2373 28104 .0844 0.6647
13 -1026.70 5330.00 0.8074 209 2665 .0784 0.6174
14 -1197.10 4648.00 0.7424 170 2324 .0731 0.5759
15 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
16 14.90 32.00 1.4656 1 16 .0625 0.4920
17 -23.00 34.00 0.3235 1 17 .0588 0.4631
18 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
19 5.80 38.00 1.1526 1 19 .0526 0.4144