Drill might be the most overrated horse I have ever seen

[toussaud]

not a grade 1 horse in the least bit. wasn't no part of antyhing other than a sprint.

[Shelby]

Maybe he likes synthetic better?

[cj]

Who ever rated him anywhere?

[OTM Al]

He had one good race. More than most have, but he was a clear bet against last two out.

[cj]

He had one good race. More than most have, but he was a clear bet against last two out.

That was my point. How overrated could he be? In the thread about the race here, he was mentioned by a few as an underneath horse, and by one as a bet against.

[Tom]

Remember Dollar Bill?

[Spalding No!]

Before saying he is the most overrated horse, I think it's much more fair to say he's the most mismanaged horse around.

This is another one of Bob Baffert's narcissistic butcher jobs. He touted the horse like mad before it had ever run and promptly was embarrassed when the colt ran greenly and bombed. He saved some face when Drill won his next two, including the rough Del Mar Futurity.

The rest is a disaster. He got beat on the square by Creative Cause in the Norfolk, but Baffert throws a tantrum and blames the jock and starts changing equipment as means of finding excuses. His dull, no factor, effort in the BC should have signaled time for a break, but instead Baffert wheels him back and ships on short rest, changing more equipment and unveiling a different running style. He'll be lucky if the colt has a mind left, never mind it's legs.

One of the worst training jobs of recent memory. In fact, Baffert has been horrendous for a couple of months now. He sent a contingent to Hoosier for their big stakes weekend and was blanked. His saving grace The Factor was massacred in his BC prep (along with his other starters in BC preps at SA). He sent a string out for the BC and could only scavenge for an ugly win by Secret Circle and a "game in defeat" effort by Game On Dude. Sends a few to Delta Downs today, and leaves with his tail between his legs. The gravy was today's performance at Hollywood by Sir Allison. This colt just ran second in special weight company behind Baffert's soon-to-be top Derby prospect Liaison. What does Baffert do? Puts him in for a $62,500 claiming tag (not too suspicious) and watches him finish unplaced and unclaimed.

I don't know if Drill was ever any good, but he certainly won't be with current Baffert at the helm.

[toussaud]

I just remember his norfolk. I just don't think he wants to run very far.

i have to agree with everything you stated though.

[davew]

I think Drill is not as bad as you are implying, todays race had a unlucky/poor? ride where Drill kinda got stuck in a speed duel for too long

I think Drill will win a GR 1 before retiring, but probably not one of the triple crown races next year

[toussaud]

he has already won one

[Robert Fischer]

how did this horse even get his own thread ?

[Tom]

By winning a GR1 and being over-rated.

[Cardus]

I need to start a thread.

I don't care if it makes sense, or has perspective.

Drill is the most overrated horse I have ever seen.

[OTM Al]

Has not even remotely made the level Astrology did last year after doing essentially nothing. At least Drill ran fast once. So no, not remotely the most overrated. Only in the current age of hyperbole would one make such a statement, and no, I won't call it the most misguided I've ever seen.

[skate]

It happens with a Buffert Horse, most always.

[skate]

Poor drill, when he wins its Buffert and when he loses, the horse is no good:confused:

[toussaud]

now that i think about it, he's by lawyer ron, lawyer ron is by Langufhur who is by Dazing.. and he's out of a storm cat mare

it's very much possible he just likes turf/synethics.

[Robert Fischer]

not very probable that something like an extreme pedigree factor wouldn't have surfaced by now.

[Spalding No!]

now that i think about it, he's by lawyer ron, lawyer ron is by Langufhur who is by Dazing.. and he's out of a storm cat mare

it's very much possible he just likes turf/synethics.

Lawyer Ron on dirt: 17 starts, 12 wins.
Lawyer Ron on turf/synthetics: 7 starts, 0 wins.

Think again.

[Robert Fischer]

Lawyer Ron on dirt: 17 starts, 12 wins.
Lawyer Ron on turf/synthetics: 7 starts, 0 wins.

Think again.

there's more to pedigree than that too, but there's a better chance of OTM AL's Astrology (not the horse) figuring out a surface issue than the kind of logic we are resorting to...

Baffert usually gets good animals... Baffert gets some big performances at times...

This probably is not a lookin @ lucky, but BB will try to get the horse to peak again

[toussaud]

Lawyer Ron on dirt: 17 starts, 12 wins.
Lawyer Ron on turf/synthetics: 7 starts, 0 wins.

Think again.
even with that said, that's still a turfish pedigree.

i didn't say it was likely, i said it was possible. a granson of langfur has every right to be successful on the turf.

i can name countless horses that didn't have success on a surface only to have progney that did.

[Robert Fischer]

even with that said, that's still a turfish pedigree.

i didn't say it was likely, i said it was possible. a granson of langfur has every right to be successful on the turf.

i can name countless horses that didn't have success on a surface only to have progney that did.

pedigree is kinda tuff 2 use in handicapping because


unless you REALLY REALLY know what u r talking about it pretty much DISCREDITS your other handicapping processes. It's about the same as if every time you got a fill-up, you RANDOMLY get 1/3 of your tank with a surprise-liquid.
pedigree capping can be tough to learn because the info out there is pretty hit or miss.
I don't like giving advice on handicapping or anything involved like pedigree - but here is a basic line of advice about the surface specialists -


the majority of all horses, MOST horses are versatile (meaning handle each surface). Lets call this group "V". Within group "v" there will be some horses who do better on on surface or another - and this will not be from pedigree- this will be from a surface that favors that horse in Level of competion, Pace, bias, track configuration, etc........... The factors I just mentioned are worth more in handicapping because they are built on proven performance and can also be more important with "MOST" horses on surface switch than the pedigree.
Drill happens to be a "V" horse.




the rest of the horses are extreme-bred and will NOT handle one or more types of surface. You can assume these will struggle on their unnatural surface until proven otherwise.



I don't have the patience, time, motivation, etc... to do a lesson on identifying the extreme from the versatile, but there u go i gave a fellow horseplayer some money, what a saint...

[toussaud]

pedigree is kinda tuff 2 use in handicapping because


unless you REALLY REALLY know what u r talking about it pretty much DISCREDITS your other handicapping processes. It's about the same as if every time you got a fill-up, you RANDOMLY get 1/3 of your tank with a surprise-liquid.
pedigree capping can be tough to learn because the info out there is pretty hit or miss.
I don't like giving advice on handicapping or anything involved like pedigree - but here is a basic line of advice about the surface specialists -


the majority of all horses, MOST horses are versatile (meaning handle each surface). Lets call this group "V". Within group "v" there will be some horses who do better on on surface or another - and this will not be from pedigree- this will be from a surface that favors that horse in Level of competion, Pace, bias, track configuration, etc........... The factors I just mentioned are worth more in handicapping because they are built on proven performance and can also be more important with "MOST" horses on surface switch than the pedigree.
Drill happens to be a "V" horse.




the rest of the horses are extreme-bred and will NOT handle one or more types of surface. You can assume these will struggle on their unnatural surface until proven otherwise.



I don't have the patience, time, motivation, etc... to do a lesson on identifying the extreme from the versatile, but there u go i gave a fellow horseplayer some money, what a saint... i'm not pedigree handicapping, i simply stated he might take to the turf. he might not. but he might. he has a right to.

Most likely, he's just not very fast. but I would give him a shot before all else fails.

[Robert Fischer]

now that i think about it, he's by lawyer ron, lawyer ron is by Langufhur who is by Dazing.. and he's out of a storm cat mare

it's very much possible he just likes turf/synethics.

i'm not pedigree handicapping, i simply stated he might take to the turf. he might not. but he might. he has a right to.

Most likely, he's just not very fast. but I would give him a shot before all else fails.

i'm tutoring some English Second Language hw right now(thank god it's primarily math )

@ like 8:30 +
i should be able to sit down and we can go back and forth, i'll do contradictions with quoted and previous posts,
- and you can do denials,

- if we mess up(maybe we can work in an intentional! mess up and then get a guy like cardus with a witty setup - check pm) then others will jump in with a "witty" comment

so basically you have 2hrs to think up stone cold dependability for any and all posts you have made should they fail to "stick".

p.s. Simply Stated will not be accepted.

TTYL :ThmbUp:,
Bobby

[skate]

all star trainer says

"dont tell me who they are by, but who did they pass"?

skate agrees...yep:)

Cigar said the very same.:cool:

[Spalding No!]

all star trainer says

"dont tell me who they are by, but who did they pass"?

skate agrees...yep:)

Cigar said the very same.:cool:

Who did Cigar ever pass that was still on all 4 legs?

Hint-- not Skip Away.

[toussaud]

he really isn't very good. went off at I think 9/2 today.

can't believe this horse won a grade 1 race. I mean I can, but just a figure of speech.

[Spalding No!]

he really isn't very good. went off at I think 9/2 today.

can't believe this horse won a grade 1 race. I mean I can, but just a figure of speech.

Maybe on the evidence of the Norfolk you can write him off, but clearly he should have never started in his last two after his complete loss of form at the Breeder's Cup. I don't think those races can be taken at face value.

The argument is probably moot, though, as Baffert has done a fine job ruining him. If he gets the winter and spring off, maybe he can make a comeback next summer at Hollywood and/or Saratoga.

[toussaud]

Maybe on the evidence of the Norfolk you can write him off, but clearly he should have never started in his last two after his complete loss of form at the Breeder's Cup. I don't think those races can be taken at face value.

The argument is probably moot, though, as Baffert has done a fine job ruining him. If he gets the winter and spring off, maybe he can make a comeback next summer at Hollywood and/or Saratoga.
i agree. It was pretty apparent, at least to me, in the norfolk, the horse wanted no part whatsoever of a route race. he just hit a brick wall. and he keeps hitting that same brick wall every race and getting bet off the board everytime he runs. And baffert just keeps goign back, it's almost like he's trying to force his way into the derby now with earnings before the real 3YO's hit the scene.

either he's tired and needs rest or he's a sprinter. I think it's a combo of both

[DaylightDies]

Lawyer Ron on dirt: 17 starts, 12 wins.
Lawyer Ron on turf/synthetics: 7 starts, 0 wins.

Think again.

Lawyer Ron didn't really come into his own until his 4 yo season, correct? Maybe this horse will tread water for a while but be a good older horse. Or maybe not...

[Tom]

Is it really a given the Drill wants any part of a sprint race either? They card claimers in California, no?

[Spalding No!]

Lawyer Ron didn't really come into his own until his 4 yo season, correct? Maybe this horse will tread water for a while but be a good older horse. Or maybe not...

Lawyer Ron won every stakes in sight at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn early as a 3yo once he started running on regular dirt.

[papillon]

i agree. It was pretty apparent, at least to me, in the norfolk, the horse wanted no part whatsoever of a route race. he just hit a brick wall. and he keeps hitting that same brick wall every race and getting bet off the board everytime he runs. And baffert just keeps goign back, it's almost like he's trying to force his way into the derby now with earnings before the real 3YO's hit the scene. either he's tired and needs rest or he's a sprinter. I think it's a combo of both

to me, he doesn't look like a bad horse, but a mismanaged one. he's got a lot of speed and his speed has held for the first 5-6 furlongs of pretty much each race he's run--he didn't seem to run like he was tired yesterday, so much as he ran like a sprinter asked to go longer than he's able.

baffert has no aversion to letting sprinters be sprinters--so maybe the owner is pressuring him to get the horse into the derby or something? i'm pretty glad he keeps finishing out of the money tbh though, i'd hate for him to squeak into the derby on earnings and act like a rabbit for hansen--so far none of hansen's competition has shown enough early speed to press him in the first 6 furlongs--i'd like to keep it that way. hansen has the type of personality that he'd burn himself out to maintain the lead. he won't even let horse be in front of him in training.

i feel pretty good about the cash call--i didn't win, but i had the super in reverse. liaison looked like he was at the complete limit of his indian charlie distance capabilities--i was impressed with both rousing sermon and sky kingdom's late runs, didn't like the way brother francis seemed to fade.

completely off topic: there's these collared doves outside my back door on my deck fighting, it's the funniest thing you ever saw--they puff their chests up and run at each other and try to chase each other off...appears to be a complete stalemate..

also off topic: saw on the news that NYC carriage horse that collapsed right in the middle of W 59th--racing isn't the only area where we aren't doing completely right by horses. those poor carriage nags...if somebody did that to a dog, they'd be fined out the wazzo and possibly jailed.

[Fingal]

Being able to bet against Drill Saturday would have been the best advertising for exchange wagering.

[toussaud]

Being able to bet against Drill Saturday would have been the best advertising for exchange wagering.
yep. I wasn't crazy at al about hte post time fav either


I will say, lawyer ron was not a very good 2YO. If I am not mistaken he even was ran in a 25k claimer, or some claimer race as a 2YO. wasn't THAt highly thought of. He didn't start to show real promise until he was 3 and really didn't hit his peak until he was 4.

[papillon]

just noticed that drill would likely squeak into the derby on earnings anyway, since he already has over $200,000. and had completely forgotten that he was even in the BCJ--but it looks like Baffert is going to do right by him and restrict him to one turn sprints in the future anyway.

[toussaud]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/baffert-drill-will-cut-back-to-sprints-after-cashcall-defeat/