I love changing conditions

[jasperson]

I love changing conditions of the track,especially it it occurs after the public handicappers have made their selections. I like races that are taken off the turf either to a fast or muddy track. On the days that the conditions change I seem to make more money then on normal days. I requires re-handicapping the races but it pays off.

[Capper Al]

It sounds like you have something here. I have been trying to avoid off tracks, but will re-think this now.

[jasperson]

It sounds like you have something here. I have been trying to avoid off tracks, but will re-think this now.
It worked good again today at both Aqu and crc. My racetrack buddy even commented That I should concentrate my betting to off tracks and off turf races because of the good payoffs I get. My only problem is that I am a numbers kind of guy and I can't get numbers on my picks. It is more of intuitive type of handicapping. I look for holes in the favorits and then look for horses that have favorable factors on the new surface and should upgrade their chances to win

[salty]

I don't know if you really have something here.

Off tracks are probably more inconsistent surfaces than fast dry tracks or firm/yielding turf. Your study would have to take you down the path of variables such as the air temperature on the day that the track was muddy. This may seem a little far fetched but from my own experience of having my feet wet, I would be more comfortable if i stepped in a warm puddle of water than if i stepped in a really cold one. Maybe some horses like having warm mud flung up at them but when it is cold they might not like it as much. I also feel that PP's do not disclose enough information about the condition of the track to make horses off-track records dependable.

Just a couple things to ponder before delving into this off track specialty.

The problem with the public handicapper and masses that follow them theory is that on a rainy day i would think that the public would overbet any horses that have any note of ability on an off track and underbet the favorites. Therefore your odds would be shallower when the condition changes.

[iceknight]

It worked good again today at both Aqu and crc. My racetrack buddy even commented That I should concentrate my betting to off tracks and off turf races because of the good payoffs I get. My only problem is that I am a numbers kind of guy and I can't get numbers on my picks. It is more of intuitive type of handicapping. I look for holes in the favorits and then look for horses that have favorable factors on the new surface and should upgrade their chances to win

The only "number" you should follow is your overall bankroll, right :) ? Anyhow, jokes apart.. I have noticed that I am able to get better prices on horses that win obviously or payoff better at PL or SH when I am betting races run in sloppy dirt.. I am not great at Off Turf handicapping yet.. but in general, for 5f to 9f distances, horses with early speed manage to do quite well in sloppy dirt.. (I have been betting only since Preakness 11)

What do you think?

[Wickel]

I also enjoy bizarre track conditions. Lots of money to be made. Although on some occasions I'd like management to leave the turf races on the turf--on yielding, soft and dead conditions like in Europe. You'd get total chaos but plenty of juicy mutuels. I realize you can't do this all the time, because it would tear up the turf course. Just a thought.

[pondman]

I like races that are taken off the turf either to a fast or muddy track. .

You are more skilled at this than I am. If I've singled a horse on the turf and it's move to the dirt, I religiously pass.

[tzipi]

I love changing conditions of the track,especially it it occurs after the public handicappers have made their selections. I like races that are taken off the turf either to a fast or muddy track. On the days that the conditions change I seem to make more money then on normal days. I requires re-handicapping the races but it pays off.

I agree, they can be profitable. Can't tell you how MANY times I see the MTO's go off at a decent price over an overbet turfer in the mud and win.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Some good points...for me the off tracks have too many variables to make a confident wager. I have seen too many un-predictable races on the off tracks through out the years and also a procession of unbettable favorites. have to stick to what works with my level of skill and recordkeeping.