theguarantee
11-18-2011, 12:57 PM
Skipping ahead to tomorrow's card as I'll be working in the afternoon and want to throw down some action beforehand. Will then go to work and get home late to watch the replays and have a beer. Just looking for somewhere to gather some thoughts, so figured I might as well post them here. Also, going to cap it as if it will be fast and on the turf.
1) Sound of Drums I'm against after making a decent, but non-threatening close into a ridiculously hot pace in the mud in the last.
-You really can't knock Bud White for the last effort on the dirt setting ridiculous fractions...but why does Ramon jump off?
-Brunelli, with Ramon hopping off BW for, will be bet down from 5/1 almost unquestionably, but being laid off since April I will be against.
-So I want one outside of these three that will likely take the most action: That leaves Turn Up the Music and Chardsey.
Turn Up the Music might end up floating up when you figure that Ramon jumped on the other Bond horse, especially considering he's been riding this one.
Chardsey off a freshening... Never tried the dirt, but if Clement is making the switch at odds is worth a shot. Wouldn't have to improve all that much. Might just be a tightener to get back on the turf, but should like the set-up and the price is right.
2) Having a hard time getting past Smart Enuf myself, and SE hasn't won in forever. Tough race.
3) Meh
4) Interested in Feels Good. Came with a big run blasting past Miss Mexique in last. Going back to the turf route at AP, was up too close to a fast pace and ran pretty well I thought. The first route at Belmont could be excused on the layoff. Thought the AP route was the best run yet, so off the nice move in a sprint, getting back to what I think she wants - there is plenty to like.
Proud Dame ran pretty well in last behind Gamecents who just crushed these. Circled basically the rest of the field despite a slow pace just missing nailing the pacesetter for the place. That was first try at a turf route so could improve at second chance.
5) Ramon riding for no name (to me?) trainer on the 5 Connect with Traz? No idea where to go here...
6) Kindergarden Kid seems most likely to run a winning race here though he is a bit one-paced in my eyes.
Minnie Punt I don't think loved the soft footing in the last (though may get the same here)...was eager to move into a slow pace and was forced to check hard early. Never really got going in the lane, but could well do better at a nice price here.
Right One, obviously, is going to be a handful.
7) Seems impossible to separate these much. Don't like Wee Freudian. The rest I can make a case for or against.
8) The two here for me are Sex Appeal and Mystic City. Mystic City is at her best when she sits just off a front-runner. The past two races she has been on the lead. Should sit off Settling Seas and put that one away turning for home. Sex Appeal I think is an improving one that has yet to quite figure it all out. Last race breaking sluggishly from the rail was hopefully a learning experience. With more pace tomorrow could be tough to hold off late.
9) As much as I'd like to come up with some sort of cute "Don't trust a late run in a sprint on the stretchout" - the figure didn't come up that big - blah blah blah...it is hard to get past watching American Buffalo weaving in and out of traffic seemingly on his own for the most part and then coming with a flurry...
Will add more thoughts after a more thorough cap in the morning.
1) Sound of Drums I'm against after making a decent, but non-threatening close into a ridiculously hot pace in the mud in the last.
-You really can't knock Bud White for the last effort on the dirt setting ridiculous fractions...but why does Ramon jump off?
-Brunelli, with Ramon hopping off BW for, will be bet down from 5/1 almost unquestionably, but being laid off since April I will be against.
-So I want one outside of these three that will likely take the most action: That leaves Turn Up the Music and Chardsey.
Turn Up the Music might end up floating up when you figure that Ramon jumped on the other Bond horse, especially considering he's been riding this one.
Chardsey off a freshening... Never tried the dirt, but if Clement is making the switch at odds is worth a shot. Wouldn't have to improve all that much. Might just be a tightener to get back on the turf, but should like the set-up and the price is right.
2) Having a hard time getting past Smart Enuf myself, and SE hasn't won in forever. Tough race.
3) Meh
4) Interested in Feels Good. Came with a big run blasting past Miss Mexique in last. Going back to the turf route at AP, was up too close to a fast pace and ran pretty well I thought. The first route at Belmont could be excused on the layoff. Thought the AP route was the best run yet, so off the nice move in a sprint, getting back to what I think she wants - there is plenty to like.
Proud Dame ran pretty well in last behind Gamecents who just crushed these. Circled basically the rest of the field despite a slow pace just missing nailing the pacesetter for the place. That was first try at a turf route so could improve at second chance.
5) Ramon riding for no name (to me?) trainer on the 5 Connect with Traz? No idea where to go here...
6) Kindergarden Kid seems most likely to run a winning race here though he is a bit one-paced in my eyes.
Minnie Punt I don't think loved the soft footing in the last (though may get the same here)...was eager to move into a slow pace and was forced to check hard early. Never really got going in the lane, but could well do better at a nice price here.
Right One, obviously, is going to be a handful.
7) Seems impossible to separate these much. Don't like Wee Freudian. The rest I can make a case for or against.
8) The two here for me are Sex Appeal and Mystic City. Mystic City is at her best when she sits just off a front-runner. The past two races she has been on the lead. Should sit off Settling Seas and put that one away turning for home. Sex Appeal I think is an improving one that has yet to quite figure it all out. Last race breaking sluggishly from the rail was hopefully a learning experience. With more pace tomorrow could be tough to hold off late.
9) As much as I'd like to come up with some sort of cute "Don't trust a late run in a sprint on the stretchout" - the figure didn't come up that big - blah blah blah...it is hard to get past watching American Buffalo weaving in and out of traffic seemingly on his own for the most part and then coming with a flurry...
Will add more thoughts after a more thorough cap in the morning.