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View Full Version : Pre-Release Deal on Percentages & Probabilities 2012


Dave Schwartz
11-17-2011, 10:02 PM
http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012.png

This is the official announcement of my new eBook, Percentages and Probabilities 2012, which will be available Christmas day, 2011.

Order Here:
http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/percentages-probabilities-2012/

What This Book Is
Think of Percentages and Probabilities, 2012, as a combination of the original, similarly-titled manuscript and Dr. William Quirin’s 1979-work, Winning at the Races. Now imagine those works on steroids.

Start with 24 ready-to-play systems. Then, for each of those individual systems, add more than 100 individual impact value tables that allow you to customize each system for your own personal use. There are over two thousand complete impact value tables. In comparison, Winning at the Races had less than 200 tables even if you count the individual "one-liner" IVs.

In addition, there are many "global" IV tables. That is, tables which are not part of a single, individual system, but instead can be applied to many of the systems. Form angles such as "The Big Win," "The Taxing Drive" and "The Z-Pattern" are a perfect examples of global IV tables because they are not system-specific.

More detail at the link.


The price of the book will be $117.
It will be MANY pages when finished. What I have already is almost 300 pages (8.5 x 11 - No double-spacing for me!).


The Pre-Release price is just $87.
This price will be available until November 30th, 2011. At that time the price will go up.

If you have a coupon, you are invited to use it. There is a lot of bang for the buck here.

In addition, there will be useful spreadsheets, with lots of cool formulas and other stuff you can use.


Special Offer for PA Members:
The first 50 people to purchase will also receive ALL of the IV Tables from the book in Excel 2003 format at no extra charge.

In addition, anyone who can get their purchase in before Overlay orders his copy, will receive my whole-hearted congratulations.

Order Here:
http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/percentages-probabilities-2012/

bob60566
11-17-2011, 10:52 PM
Dave

Intrested in the book does it address trainer intent in past perfomances???

Mac:)

Dave Schwartz
11-17-2011, 10:58 PM
Well, there are factors that are under trainer control like class changes, days since last race, days since last work, furlongs worked in 14, 21 and 28 days, times on track in the last 30 days, days since last race at the distance, etc.

Is that what you mean?


Dave

bob60566
11-18-2011, 12:38 AM
Well, there are factors that are under trainer control like class changes, days since last race, days since last work, furlongs worked in 14, 21 and 28 days, times on track in the last 30 days, days since last race at the distance, etc.

Is that what you mean?


Dave

Dave

Was thinking how could a person interpret trainer intent from the PP running lines without all above that was my query.
Mac:)

thaskalos
11-18-2011, 01:55 AM
Dave,

What I found most disconcerting about Quirin's "Winning At The Races" was that he would often come to some pretty firm conclusions, after using some pretty small race samples.

Will you be using adequate amounts of races in your analysis?

thaskalos
11-18-2011, 02:14 AM
Dave,

What I found most disconcerting about Quirin's "Winning At The Races" was that he would often come to some pretty firm conclusions, after using some pretty small race samples.

Will you be using adequate amounts of races in your analysis?

Never mind Dave,

I read more at the link that you provided...and I got my answer.

I should have known... :)

Overlay
11-18-2011, 03:02 AM
Dave,

Did I make the first 50? :)

Dave Schwartz
11-18-2011, 09:18 AM
Yes.

I expect that we'll get to 50 sometime today when I send out all the emails.

WPL
11-20-2011, 11:16 AM
Pre-ordered. Done.

2low
11-21-2011, 04:21 PM
Curiosity got the best of me a couple days ago. I have no idea what to expect, but I like data and paypal:cool:

Dave Schwartz
11-28-2011, 12:14 PM
Reminder: The $87 price goes away after November 30th! There are just 3 more days to take advantage of this deal.

As it says in the description in the store:

Think of Percentages and Probabilities, 2012, as a combination of the original, similarly-titled manuscript and Dr. William Quirin’s 1979-work, Winning at the Races. Now imagine those works on steroids.

and...

Start with 24 ready-to-play systems. Then, for each of those individual systems, add more than 100 individual impact value tables that allow you to customize each system for your own personal use. There are over two thousand complete impact value tables. In comparison, Winning at the Races had less than 200 tables even if you count the individual "one-liner" IVs.

You are literally getting TEN TIMES the volume of data that was in Quirin's Winning at the Races!


Order it here:
http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/percentages-probabilities-2012/


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Tom
11-28-2011, 12:16 PM
Got my order in.

Is it here yet?
Is it here yet?
Is it here yet?


;)

Dave Schwartz
11-28-2011, 12:24 PM
I knew I could count on you!


Dave

Dave Schwartz
12-05-2011, 05:53 PM
I received a request to put up a couple of excerpts from the book. Perhaps I will have time for more of these later, but for now, here is a quick look.


Excerpts from the book:
(Note that if the graphic appears small, clicking on it should expand it.)

Speed Handicapping (http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012-Ex_002.jpg)

Tote Board (http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/p&P2012-Ex_001.png)

Dave Schwartz
12-06-2011, 12:15 PM
Here is another excerpt:

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012/Speed30-Diff-01.jpg


Overlay, are you getting excited yet?

Johnny V
12-06-2011, 12:32 PM
Dave,
I don't know about the others but these excerpts have certainly got my attention and piqued my interest even more. I was probably one of the first to order it and it looks like I will not be disappointed form what I have seen so far. I won't ask now because I assume all the columns such as DV BV etc. will be explained in the text.

Dave Schwartz
12-06-2011, 01:14 PM
They will be explained... but a picture is worth a 1,000 words, right?

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012/DV-BV-001.jpg

Dave Schwartz
12-06-2011, 01:54 PM
LOL - Love those typos. "get the money" should be "bet the money."

Saw a couple of others as well.

Johnny V
12-06-2011, 01:57 PM
They will be explained... but a picture is worth a 1,000 words, right?

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012/DV-BV-001.jpg
Right. Thanks

Dave Schwartz
12-06-2011, 05:02 PM
I think I am going to continue putting up excerpts.

Remember that these stats are "global." That is, they are across all non-maiden, dirt and poly races over a 2-year period.

If you enjoyed Quirin's Winning at the Races then you will want this book.

Order it here:
http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/percentages-probabilities-2012/

Meanwhile, here we look at horse's speed ratings relative to the rest of the field. What we call "Strength of Field."

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/P&P2012/Speed-Strength.jpg

Dave Schwartz
12-06-2011, 08:52 PM
BTW, the book includes a copy of the 2011 Track Class tables from our par times.

I will continue to post excerpts as long as people are interested enough to create discussion.


Dave

JoeLong
12-17-2011, 11:04 AM
Looks like a winner... ordered.

Occupy HorseStreet... OHS? :D

Dave Schwartz
12-17-2011, 01:13 PM
Joe,

Wow! You're a name from the past aren't you?

Give a call and let's catch up!


Dave

Dave Schwartz
12-20-2011, 02:30 PM
The book project has turned into a monumental undertaking and simply cannot be ready on December 25th.

I have lots of pages but the book is just not complete. When it is finally released (sometime in January) it will be far more pages than I had anticipated; probably closer to 700 than the original 300+ I had planned.

I guess that what they say about us programmer-types is true: “Being a programmer means never having to say you are finished.”

Handiman
12-21-2011, 01:21 AM
Oh great. Now I have to re-arrange my whole Xmas day schedule. Boy Dave, you have put me in an awkward position. Now may have to spend the whole day with the family. :lol: You better get on the stick. :)

Merry Christmas!

Handi:)

Dave Schwartz
12-21-2011, 01:55 AM
Yeah, me too!

:jump: :jump:

Dave Schwartz
12-26-2011, 12:41 PM
Apparently the store sent automated messages to everyone saying that the new ship date was December 25, 2012.

LOL - It is late but not THAT late. January 20th is the target date.


Dave

Dave Schwartz
01-04-2012, 02:55 PM
Here is an interesting update: It appears that I have seriously under-estimated the total print pages. LOL

If one were to print out ALL the tables completely, I think it will come in at around 1,500 pages.

The primary book is likely to come in at around 300 pages or so.


Still on target for January 20th.

Overlay
01-04-2012, 06:42 PM
Here is an interesting update: It appears that I have seriously under-estimated the total print pages. LOL

If one were to print out ALL the tables completely, I think it will come in at around 1,500 pages.

The primary book is likely to come in at around 300 pages or so.


Still on target for January 20th.
Dave,

Does the price previously advertised/paid include all the data on those 1,500 hard-copy pages?

Dave Schwartz
01-04-2012, 07:13 PM
Yup.

In PDF, Excel 2003 and comma-delimited formats.

Dave Schwartz
01-11-2012, 08:38 PM
Update: I have built the 24 systems, created all the CSV files. I have about 100 pages left to write about some of the systems.

I should make January 20th as a ship date.

Thanks for your patience. It will be worth waiting for.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
PS: Did you know that horses born later than June are at a disadvantage for their entire racing career? I didn't either (until now).

Dave Schwartz
01-19-2012, 02:20 PM
Here it is, Jan 19. Will I be releasing tomorrow?

Probably not. We'll see.

In writing the last few chapters I decided that what was needed were some special chapters on our primary factors - about 10 of them.

So, I am deeply immersed in writing said chapters. Hope to be finished tomorrow. Then I must fine tune the PDF a little, add graphics etc.

Then I must proof the document.

As I said in my email to everyone on my list, probably Monday. Maybe as late as Tuesday. Thanks for your patience.

Teaser: Other than speed, what 2 factors do you suppose turned out to be important across all types of races?
(I will answer later today - providing there is interest in the question.)

JimG
01-19-2012, 02:25 PM
Teaser: Other than speed, what 2 factors do you suppose turned out to be important across all types of races?
(I will answer later today - providing there is interest in the question.)

I'll guess form and connections. Look forward to your answer.

Jim

jdhanover
01-19-2012, 02:39 PM
I would guess trainer and recent form. But that is too obvious so I am waiting for answers to be something like post position #7 and jockey silk colors.... :)

Handiman
01-19-2012, 03:37 PM
Here's one important factor. If you don't provide answer there will be a Dave S. ass kicking....:lol:

Get busy finishing that book. Don't forget that is my Christmas present.

Handi:)

Dave Schwartz
01-19-2012, 04:02 PM
Just ignore that Handiman guy.

Who said that?


The 4th-best factor IS form. Specifically, what we call in our system "Condition."

1. The horse ran a "good" race in his last (within 21 days).
2. The horse ran at least 1 good race in his last 3 starts.
3. Other horses.

RichieP
01-19-2012, 08:16 PM
Who said that?


The 4th-best factor IS form. Specifically, what we call in our system "Condition."

1. The horse ran a "good" race in his last (within 21 days).

Hi Dave
What is your description of a good race?
Thanks :)

Red Knave
01-19-2012, 08:22 PM
3. Other horses.

What does this mean?

Don't reply if if it's a long drawn out answer. I don't wan to disturb you. :)

Dave Schwartz
01-19-2012, 08:27 PM
1. The horse ran a "good" race in his last (within 21 days).

Quirin's definition:
1st, 2nd, 3rd or within 2 lengths (3 in a route)


3. Other horses.
What does this mean?


Horse that do not qualify for either of the first 2 definitions.

PhantomOnTour
01-19-2012, 08:50 PM
I consider a horse that ran a good race in the last 21 days to be in good form.
I don't see the distinction btw FORM (4th best factor) and a good last race within 21 days (top 2 factor) :confused:

Dave Schwartz
01-19-2012, 09:07 PM
You have missed the point.

The factor is called "Condition" and it has three different classes of horses:

1. The horse ran a "good" race in his last (within 21 days).
2. The horse ran at least 1 good race in his last 3 starts.
3. Other horses.

Each horse fits precisely 1 of the 3 categories.

PhantomOnTour
01-19-2012, 09:20 PM
You have missed the point.

The factor is called "Condition" and it has three different classes of horses:

1. The horse ran a "good" race in his last (within 21 days).
2. The horse ran at least 1 good race in his last 3 starts.
3. Other horses.

Each horse fits precisely 1 of the 3 categories.
Gotcha...i thought you were answering the question you asked earlier and the 1 and 2 above were the answers.
My bad

Tom
01-19-2012, 10:25 PM
You have missed the point.

The factor is called "Condition" and it has three different classes of horses:

1. The horse ran a "good" race in his last (within 21 days).
2. The horse ran at least 1 good race in his last 3 starts.
3. Other horses.

Each horse fits precisely 1 of the 3 categories.

Or 1 and 2?

Factor #2......weight? Color? PPP? (Pooped in post parade)

Dave Schwartz
01-19-2012, 10:34 PM
Huh?

Best 2 factors are always speed.

Earnings Per Start - consistently 3rd best

Condition is usually 4th best.

Dave Schwartz
01-21-2012, 02:07 PM
Update: I have about 3-4 more hours of writing today and I will be finished. Then:

1. Make the cover. Sounds simple but getting it into the PDF is new for me.

2. Output the book in PDF.

3. Proof.

4. Organize all the spreadsheets and CSVs into a workable structure.


All of this should be finished by tomorrow afternoon. :jump: :jump:

jdhanover
01-21-2012, 04:18 PM
Can't wait - I know it will be an outstanding book!

Capper Al
01-21-2012, 04:24 PM
Update: I have about 3-4 more hours of writing today and I will be finished. Then:

1. Make the cover. Sounds simple but getting it into the PDF is new for me.

2. Output the book in PDF.

3. Proof.

4. Organize all the spreadsheets and CSVs into a workable structure.


All of this should be finished by tomorrow afternoon. :jump: :jump:

I'm waiting. Never was able to get my hands on the first P&P.

appistappis
01-22-2012, 01:22 AM
come on dave, I feel like a seven year old on xmas eve.

Dave Schwartz
01-22-2012, 01:37 AM
I got a lot done today. I have one important chapter to write tomorrow - Strategy - namely, how to be profitable with this thing.


Then I am done.

The beauty of electronic media is that as big as it is - Last count, the main book is 413 pages (8.5 x 11) - plus another 1,300+ of full tables, etc. - even if there are typos, etc. I can fix them.

You guys might become the bigger bunch of proof readers ever.


Dave

Dave Schwartz
01-23-2012, 04:20 PM
All emails have been sent. If you ordered the product and have not received an email by 2pm (pacific) please send me an email so that we may follow up.

CDs are headed to the post office.

Dave

Dave Schwartz
01-23-2012, 06:44 PM
Well, nothing ever works the first time.

There was apparently a problem in the zip file. Please check your email for new download instructions.


Dave

goforgin
01-23-2012, 11:28 PM
Nice job Dave! Looks like I'm going to be busy for the next few days. A lot of information to digest.

iwearpurple
01-24-2012, 12:19 AM
I haven't been able to put it away.

Looks like a lot of great stuff here, and looks like a lot of effort was put into this.

Helles
01-24-2012, 12:39 AM
Excellent! As usual from the blue-shirted one.

Epic work Dave. Congratulations. I know you put a LOT of work into this. It is an absolute 'must-have' for any serious player.

Dave Schwartz
01-24-2012, 01:08 AM
Yes, and one of our more astute readers decided to put the systems to a test immediately.

He found that I had left some numbers out of the table. I will have the repaired by morning.

Tom
02-02-2012, 09:08 AM
Anyone got the CD yet?

Dave Schwartz
02-02-2012, 11:21 AM
Did you order a CD and not receive it?

Tom
02-02-2012, 12:04 PM
Did I need to order one separately?

That might answer it! D'oh!

Dave Schwartz
02-02-2012, 12:17 PM
Yes, they are two different items in the store. The CD was $8 more.

But with the upgrades (okay, bug fixes) that we have done, the newest one (which goes up Monday) would be a download anyway.

We did send a second CD to everyone but cannot do this for every error correction.

However, if anyone who ordered P&P wants and updated CD, there is a product in the store called "Add a CD" for $10. Just order one of those and send us an email requesting a new P&P CD.

Add a CD (http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/add-a-cd/)

Understand that this includes the current CD version only, with whatever corrections are in that build. If, they day after we ship yours, there are more corrections, we will not send you an updated CD.


Truthfully, this product works just fine as a downloadable one. There really is no reason for the CD.