NFL Power ratings after 10 weeks

[Valuist]

90 is average.
teams are NOT penalized for injuries. For instance, if Houston starts playing poorly with Leinart, they get adjusted down. But based on 10 weeks, that cannot be held against them

1. Green Bay 98
2. San Fran 96
3. Houston 95
4. New Orleans 94.5
New England 94.5
6. Baltimore 94
Pittsburgh 94
8. Chicago 93.5
9. NY Giants 93
NY Jets 93
11. Atlanta 92.5
Cincinnati 92.5
13. Dallas 92
Detroit 92
15. Buffalo 90.5
16. Philly 90
Oakland 90
San Diego 90
19. Tennessee 89
20. Seattle 88
21. Jacksonville 88
22. Tampa Bay 87.5
23. Denver 87.5
24. Miami 87
Arizona 87
26. Carolina 86.5
Minnesota 86.5
28. St. Louis 86
29. Cleveland 85.5
30. Washington 85
Kansas City 85
32. Indy 83

[cj]

Are these your ratings? Does a difference of 3 mean the spread should be 3 points on a neutral field?

[Valuist]

Are these your ratings? Does a difference of 3 mean the spread should be 3 points on a neutral field?

Yes, these are my rankings and yes to the second question as well.

[cj]

Yes, these are my rankings and yes to the second question as well.

Good stuff, though I think the gap from Green Bay to the others should be larger.

[ManU918]

Not sure how you have the Eagles ahead of some of the teams you do. Right now the Eagles are not an "average" team. They are well below average.

[Canarsie]

This has piqued my interest god job putting out something a littler different especially on here.

But I have a few questions that could be interpreted as my dumb ideas for improvement.

1. Is there a separate ranking for offense, defense red zone, special teams, and turnovers that go into the formula

2. Is the home field advantage the same for every team points wise

3. Strength of schedule.

4. Kicking game

5. Teams record playing on the road after losing at home. The same would go for the exact opposite also.

[Canarsie]

Not sure how you have the Eagles ahead of some of the teams you do. Right now the Eagles are not an "average" team. They are well below average.

If you are bringing up the sixteenth team he has in his ratings (actually three tied) then he's done a fantastic job.

[Robert Goren]

They look about right. What makes it hard is that a team like Balt can beat the best teams in AFC convincingly one week and then lose to one of worsest the next. Right now if I was betting on which team goes to the superbowl from the AFC, Balt would get a pretty good sized bet(for me) because they have proven they can beat good teams.

[ManU918]

If you are bringing up the sixteenth team he has in his ratings (actually three tied) then he's done a fantastic job.

I honestly didn't look at the whole thing until now. The Bengals should be around 17th or 18th. They are an absolute fraud. The Bengals wins have come against the Browns, Colts , Bills, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Titans. A combined record of 20-35... But their his rankings so more power to him. No way would I put Houston in front of the Saints. The Saints already beat Houston and the Texans just lost their QB for the season. I would also put the Bears and Giants in front of the Ravens.

[cj]

I honestly didn't look at the whole thing until now. The Bengals should be around 17th or 18th. They are an absolute fraud. The Bengals wins have come against the Browns, Colts , Bills, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Titans. A combined record of 20-35... But their his rankings so more power to him. No way would I put Houston in front of the Saints. The Saints already beat Houston and the Texans just lost their QB for the season. I would also put the Bears and Giants in front of the Ravens.

He put them out there. Lets compare them to point spreads this week and see how they work.

[ManU918]

He put them out there. Lets compare them to point spreads this week and see how they work.

Good for him. I'm not taking anything away from the work that he has done. What I wrote was my opinion if you want to agree with him and disagree with me... Works for me.

[cj]

Good for him. I'm not taking anything away from the work that he has done. What I wrote was my opinion if you want to agree with him and disagree with me... Works for me.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree, I'm saying the proof will come starting tonight so opinions don't really matter.

The Jets are -6 on the road tonight. I would compare that to his difference of the Jets -5.5 on a neutral field. I would guess he gives 3 or 4 to the home team, changing his line to at least -2.5. I don't know how much difference he needs to make a bet, but this would seem to be one, a 3.5 point difference with the line.

[Valuist]

They look about right. What makes it hard is that a team like Balt can beat the best teams in AFC convincingly one week and then lose to one of worsest the next. Right now if I was betting on which team goes to the superbowl from the AFC, Balt would get a pretty good sized bet(for me) because they have proven they can beat good teams.

Baltimore is tricky, because like you said, their best is very good. But they have played some very poor games on the road. I suspect by the end of the year, they could be the top AFC team, but they have to straighten a few things out first.

[Valuist]

This has piqued my interest god job putting out something a littler different especially on here.

But I have a few questions that could be interpreted as my dumb ideas for improvement.

1. Is there a separate ranking for offense, defense red zone, special teams, and turnovers that go into the formula

2. Is the home field advantage the same for every team points wise

3. Strength of schedule.

4. Kicking game

5. Teams record playing on the road after losing at home. The same would go for the exact opposite also.

It is a combination of my opinion and actual results, weighted a bit more toward recent form. I try to take strength of schedule into account. The problem with Sagarin's formulas and similar is that it treats every game the same. For instance, Buffalo was a good team earlier in the year but clearly is not playing at the same level now.

I change my ratings after each week but I tend toward the general rule LV and offshore linemakers tend to use: do not adjust up or down by more than 2 points after each week. The exception, could be a major injury. Houston has played at a high level this year but could definitely slip w/Leinart taking over.

I never make a bet specifically on power ratings alone. I use them as a guide to give me some idea. I know some teams, like GB and NE are public teams.

Someone asked about Philadelphia being too high. I know they were hyped and were overrated earlier in the season but they have been right there in many of the losses. And its not like they've only won 2 games.

[Valuist]

There are several teams I don't have a real good feel for, power rating wise.

Baltimore, who maybe needs separate power ratings for home and road;
San Diego and Philly, two underachieving teams with talent, and Denver, a team lacking in talent but who has managed to work their way into contention in the AFC West.

[ManU918]

There are several teams I don't have a real good feel for, power rating wise.

Baltimore, who maybe needs separate power ratings for home and road;
San Diego and Philly, two underachieving teams with talent, and Denver, a team lacking in talent but who has managed to work their way into contention in the AFC West.

Very well said. I think anyone trying to put together a rankings list would run into the same problems. I would also add the Texans to that list now that they are left without Schaub

[Canarsie]

I'm not saying I agree or disagree, I'm saying the proof will come starting tonight so opinions don't really matter.

The Jets are -6 on the road tonight. I would compare that to his difference of the Jets -5.5 on a neutral field. I would guess he gives 3 or 4 to the home team, changing his line to at least -2.5. I don't know how much difference he needs to make a bet, but this would seem to be one, a 3.5 point difference with the line.

The thing with almost every system is they tend to break down over time without major adjustments. That's the reason most fail the person who started it is too "pigheaded" to make the corrections. Those that do are the winners you don't hear about. I've told this story a few times here but I knew a guy who got "chased" from bookie to bookie because all he wanted to do was play the "middle". His reply was an all time classic when it came to the lines "they have to be smarter".

Around 30 years ago when I bet more early on I found out that the 76ers always covered on a Friday night. It probably was the dumbest system ever used but I think over the season it went against me two times. Needless to say it was never to be used again for my benefit.

Good luck with yours and keep tweaking it.

stagnation = losing.

[cj]

The thing with almost every system is they tend to break down over time without major adjustments. That's the reason most fail the person who started it is too "pigheaded" to make the corrections. Those that do are the winners you don't hear about. I've told this story a few times here but I knew a guy who got "chased" from bookie to bookie because all he wanted to do was play the "middle". His reply was an all time classic when it came to the lines "they have to be smarter".

Around 30 years ago when I bet more early on I found out that the 76ers always covered on a Friday night. It probably was the dumbest system ever used but I think over the season it went against me two times. Needless to say it was never to be used again for my benefit.

Good luck with yours and keep tweaking it.

stagnation = losing.

I certainly never meant to imply his ratings weren't fluid. I assume the complete opposite, he changes them often. I'm not sure how you even thought that is what I meant.

[Canarsie]

I certainly never meant to imply his ratings weren't fluid. I assume the complete opposite, he changes them often. I'm not sure how you even thought that is what I meant.


I didn't but your post was very logical and I took the privilege of adding on a few things that I have saw through my lifetime. You and I actually probably agree about sports theory more often than not. Maybe I worded it the wrong way if you took it like that I'm "sorry".

Plus this week is the first time that the ratings are visible one couldn't make a rush to judgement after four weeks that would be too early. Just like defensive player of the year far to early to argue.

[Valuist]

I certainly never meant to imply his ratings weren't fluid. I assume the complete opposite, he changes them often. I'm not sure how you even thought that is what I meant.

You are correct; they are changed after each week.

I really use them mostly for the two confidence pools I'm in, and my own amusement. For wagering on games, power ratings are merely a starting point and individual matchups are more important, IMO.

[Valuist]

Very well said. I think anyone trying to put together a rankings list would run into the same problems. I would also add the Texans to that list now that they are left without Schaub

That could well be the case. But, this Houston team is pretty well balanced. They have a solid defense this year, a great running game and they've been winning without one of the (if not the top) WR in the NFL. They may still be pretty good even if Leinart is nothing more than a game manager.

But having said that, w/Leinart its hard to see them going far in the playoffs. Its too bad, because they did have a shot at going far.

[thaskalos]

You are correct; they are changed after each week.

I really use them mostly for the two confidence pools I'm in, and my own amusement. For wagering on games, power ratings are merely a starting point and individual matchups are more important, IMO.
How many weeks into the season do you wait, in order for the stats that you use to become meaningful and believable?

I also calculate my own NFL and MLB power ratings.

I have found that, eventhough football is hands down the most popular betting sport, it is not the most profitable one...

Not enough bets.

The season is too short...and it takes a considerable amount of time to get a handle on the ability of these teams year to year.

Do you compile stats for other sports?

[Valuist]

How many weeks into the season do you wait, in order for the stats that you use to become meaningful and believable?

I also calculate my own NFL and MLB power ratings.

I have found that, eventhough football is hands down the most popular betting sport, it is not the most profitable one...

Not enough bets.

The season is too short...and it takes a considerable amount of time to get a handle on the ability of these teams year to year.

Do you compile stats for other sports?

I usually wait until teams have played 4 games to start to make them. Just too unreliable earlier than that.

Since I spend a lot of time on racing, the NFL is the only other sport I would wager on. In college football and esp. college bball, there's too many teams. I have experimented with betting the NBA and MLB. Both can be good, but take up huge time committments. If you are going to bet horses, you really can't bet either of those sports.

I think football is one of the better betting sports because there's so many squares out there. When you bet the NBA and MLB, the competition is much tougher.

As a general rule, assume the squares will bet the favorites, and the over. If you can make a case for the dog or the under, you may have a bet.

[highnote]

I thought it might be interesting to compare my week 10 ratings to Valuist's.

Mine are based on Elo Chess ratings and modified for football.

Here's a blog piece I contributed to that might be of interest:

http://www.betfairblog.com/football-betting/nfl-betting-elo-ratings-and-week-9-picks/

Contrary to what the blog piece says, we do have a formula to create probabilities using the ratings. See the probabilities for this week's game below my ratings.


Green Bay 1038.6
San Francisco 1033
Detroit 1022.2
Cincinnati 1021.1
Baltimore 1020.6
Houston 1017.8
New Orleans 1011.3
NY Giants 1008.5
New England 1008.3
NY Jets 1007.9
Pittsburgh 1007.5
Buffalo 1005.8
Atlanta 1003.9
Chicago 1003.9
Dallas 989.2
San Diego 989.2
Philadelphia 988.9
Tennessee 979.5
Tampa Bay 977
Washington 976.8
Oakland 973.8
Cleveland 972.5
Carolina 972.1
Denver 971.6
Minnesota 971.1
Kansas City 969.8
Miami 968.8
Arizona 965.1
Seattle 963.5
Jacksonville 962.9
St. Louis 944.6
Indianapolis 925.2

Probability of Winning.
Home field advantage factored in.
Add 0.7 Elo points to every three football points.
So a team that is playing at home (a three point advantage)
gets 0.7 added to their rating.

NY Jets 0.55 Denver 0.45
Oakland 0.55 Minnesota 0.45
Buffalo 0.54 Miami 0.46
Cincinnati 0.5 Baltimore 0.5
Jacksonville 0.55 Cleveland 0.45
Dallas 0.58 Washington 0.42
Tampa Bay 0.28 Green Bay 0.72
Carolina 0.35 Detroit 0.65
Arizona 0.32 San Francisco 0.68
Seattle 0.52 St. Louis 0.48
San Diego 0.41 Chicago 0.59
Tennessee 0.48 Atlanta 0.52
Philadelphia 0.44 NY Giants 0.56
Kansas City 0.34 New England 0.66


90 is average.
teams are NOT penalized for injuries. For instance, if Houston starts playing poorly with Leinart, they get adjusted down. But based on 10 weeks, that cannot be held against them

1. Green Bay 98
2. San Fran 96
3. Houston 95
4. New Orleans 94.5
New England 94.5
6. Baltimore 94
Pittsburgh 94
8. Chicago 93.5
9. NY Giants 93
NY Jets 93
11. Atlanta 92.5
Cincinnati 92.5
13. Dallas 92
Detroit 92
15. Buffalo 90.5
16. Philly 90
Oakland 90
San Diego 90
19. Tennessee 89
20. Seattle 88
21. Jacksonville 88
22. Tampa Bay 87.5
23. Denver 87.5
24. Miami 87
Arizona 87
26. Carolina 86.5
Minnesota 86.5
28. St. Louis 86
29. Cleveland 85.5
30. Washington 85
Kansas City 85
32. Indy 83

[Robert Fischer]

my own subjective ranking *

1. Green Bay 100
2. New England 86
3. New Orleans 77
4. Pittsburgh 74
5. Baltimore 70
6. NY Giants 63
7. San Fran 50
8. Detroit 45

*ONLY SUPERBOWL CONTENDERS WERE RANKED

formulated primarily from a proprietary pirate berry where in some cases a bunch of plays were broken down subjectively by our subjective break-down analyst and then EVERY SINGLE SNAP is probably on a database somewhere, and then I made a ballpark estimate of the 8 teams that have any chance of winning the superbowl and used the medium known as the 100 point scale to channel my psychic gift into a more comfortable form for the casual football fan to digest.

One more thing!!!:
Some day,
a crazy:p
wild-eyed guy:eek:
who claims to be a scientist:cool:
or a kid:)
may show up asking about these rankings:confused: ....

[cj's dad]

Didn't want to start a new thread -

Injury update for you gamblers and fantasy guys:

Ray Lewis is out Sunday - toe injury

[cj]

I'm not saying I agree or disagree, I'm saying the proof will come starting tonight so opinions don't really matter.

The Jets are -6 on the road tonight. I would compare that to his difference of the Jets -5.5 on a neutral field. I would guess he gives 3 or 4 to the home team, changing his line to at least -2.5. I don't know how much difference he needs to make a bet, but this would seem to be one, a 3.5 point difference with the line.

They certainly worked well on this game.

[Valuist]

They certainly worked well on this game.

I guess the next question is, does LV overcompensate for the Jets because they are a public team? Is the anti-Tebow sentiment too strong?

Situationally, looked like a very bad spot for the Jets. Sunday night they lose at home to hated rival, now on a very short week they go on the road to play an unfamiliar rival.....in altitude at that.

I do believe home field is worth more in certain situations; home teams on the Thursday games. I know Detroit hasn't been able to exploit that on T-Giving games much in the past decade, but with more firepower this year, they should give GB a good game.

[Robert Goren]

Vegas does not adjust quickly enough to changes in the strengths of teams. Denver has gotten a lot better with Tebow. So has Dallas with Murray. Then there is the Eagles. If you put any other team with their record in their game line, it would be a lot different.

[rastajenk]

Ray Lewis is out Sunday - toe injuryWho-Dey! :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Didn't want to start a new thread -

Injury update for you gamblers and fantasy guys:

Ray Lewis is out Sunday - toe injury



in spite of the rivalry love watching Ray play linebacker. G.O.A.T.??

Hope he gets back 100% with full momentum for the playoffs... we Stillers want no excuses when we go to the ravens house !! Maybe Ray is staying in the league a little past his prime! :mad::ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

by the way nice Avatar...
little known fact; they almost went with Balmore Ray's ;)
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/3018/balmorerayz.jpg

[Valuist]

Vegas does not adjust quickly enough to changes in the strengths of teams. Denver has gotten a lot better with Tebow. So has Dallas with Murray. Then there is the Eagles. If you put any other team with their record in their game line, it would be a lot different.

I would also put San Diego in with Philly.

[Valuist]

Who-Dey! :ThmbUp:

We will find out a lot about Cincinnati in the next few weeks. Before the season, they were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. They played well in the first half; albeit against a soft schedule. They lost at home to Pitt last week; ESPN kept saying what a quality loss it was. A home loss is never good. First off, I don't believe Pittsburgh is as sharp as last year. But no rest for the Bengals as they head to Baltimore.

[cj's dad]

in spite of the rivalry love watching Ray play linebacker. G.O.A.T.??

Hope he gets back 100% with full momentum for the playoffs... we Stillers want no excuses when we go to the ravens house !! Maybe Ray is staying in the league a little past his prime! :mad::ThmbDown::ThmbDown:

by the way nice Avatar...
little known fact; they almost went with Balmore Ray's ;)
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/3018/balmorerayz.jpg

Not sure what G.O.A.T. is but then again I'm an old guy.

Ray is in his 16th year and has had one season where he played less than 50% of schedule - 2007 ?

The guy is remarkable and if you had him playing for your team for his entire career you would love him.

[cj's dad]

Injury update- Ray Lewis now listed as questionable ??

He hasn't practiced all week, not that he needs it, but this morning's news had him out.

[Robert Fischer]

Greatest Of All Time.

Not sure what G.O.A.T. is but then again I'm an old guy.

Ray is in his 16th year and has had one season where he played less than 50% of schedule - 2007 ?

The guy is remarkable and if you had him playing for your team for his entire career you would love him.

[cj's dad]

Greatest Of All Time.

DUH - thanks

[Canarsie]

Injury update- Ray Lewis now listed as questionable ??

He hasn't practiced all week, not that he needs it, but this morning's news had him out.

On ESPN they said his toe will probably keep him out a game or two but being the "warrior" he is he doesn't even need a top flight lawyer to present his case. They said that's the only reason he's listed as questionable.

I know his off field stuff hasn't been always positive but in my lifetime I have never seen a guy get up for a game throughput his career as him. The only one close is probably Lawrence Taylor but he took too many days off during the season to pass Lewis.

He's also a real good interview even if I don't agree with what he's saying. You really don't want to miss a word when its on television.

[cj's dad]

Ray is amazing- his pre-game rant is getting old but I guess the younger guys are impressed- he is remarkable at 16 years in !!

[PhantomOnTour]

I don't bet football and i don't know the spread, but i think Baltimore is going to do a number on the Bengals today.
Ravens had a bad loss last week and are back at home today...listen for the sound of Dalton hitting the ground.

[ManU918]

That could well be the case. But, this Houston team is pretty well balanced. They have a solid defense this year, a great running game and they've been winning without one of the (if not the top) WR in the NFL. They may still be pretty good even if Leinart is nothing more than a game manager.

But having said that, w/Leinart its hard to see them going far in the playoffs. Its too bad, because they did have a shot at going far.

There was a Super Bowl prediction thread on here, and Houston was my AFC Champion pick. So I tend to agree with everything you said.