Distance equalization

[jeebus1083]

Is there an effective way of "equalizing" times at certain distances beyond using speed figures? In other words, If a horse is cutting back from a route to a sprint, I want to try and convert the fractions and final time of that route to an equivalent sprint time, just to get an idea.

Raybo does a good job with this in AllData, but it's pretty good to a point, usually within a furlong. Once you cross over into longer distances (or conversely, shorter distances), the conversion becomes unrealistic, and 50 second 1st calls in routes start to equate to about 17 second sprint 1st calls! :blush:

Brohamer attempts to do this in the Sartin methodology outlined in MPH, but the results have never really been that good.

If someone has an "answer" or an "idea", I am all ears! :)

[cj]

Is there an effective way of "equalizing" times at certain distances beyond using speed figures? In other words, If a horse is cutting back from a route to a sprint, I want to try and convert the fractions and final time of that route to an equivalent sprint time, just to get an idea.

Raybo does a good job with this in AllData, but it's pretty good to a point, usually within a furlong. Once you cross over into longer distances (or conversely, shorter distances), the conversion becomes unrealistic, and 50 second 1st calls in routes start to equate to about 17 second sprint 1st calls! :blush:

Brohamer attempts to do this in the Sartin methodology outlined in MPH, but the results have never really been that good.

If someone has an "answer" or an "idea", I am all ears! :)

I've yet to find one that works very well. If I were going to try something new, I might take the last 6f of a route race instead of the first 6. At least you know they are racing at that point. That isn't the case for the first part of the race.

[gm10]

I've yet to find one that works very well. If I were going to try something new, I might take the last 6f of a route race instead of the first 6. At least you know they are racing at that point. That isn't the case for the first part of the race.

That is actually a great number, especially during January-March when the fresh crop of three year olds starts running in routes. I call it the Golden Fraction. It separates the wheat from the chaff wrt making it to the Derby.

[Elliott Sidewater]

try this

www.americanturf.com/equalization (http://www.americanturf.com/equalization). This only works for final time adjustment, at one track or between two tracks. What it attempts to do is to give you each track's inherent speed. It does not account for daily variations in track speed, that's the readers job. Using an old Ray Taulbot Pace Calculator I pulled out of the basement, you could use these times as your 100 point equivalent:

5f 55 4/5
5.5 f 1:02
6f 1:08 1/5
6.5f 1:14 2/5
7f 1:21 3/5
1 mile 1:35 2/5 (make it 1:34 for a 1 turn mile)
1 mile 70 yards 1:40 3/5
1 1/16 1:43
1 1/8 1:49 2/5
1 3/16 1:56 3/5
1 1/4 2:02 4/5

Don't ask me whether I agree with these conversions; they're LAMINATED, so they must be right :D:D

[Tom]

The only method I have found that I can use somewhat successfully ( by that, I mean I make damn sure the horse is a contender without using the equalized time as the basis for that decision) is to find the relationship between Average pace (AP) and early pace (EP) in speints and routes, then use that to convert a distance...I don't try to do match up stuff with it, just see where the horse "figures" overall and early. I suppose you could use Total Pace (F1+F2+F3) instead of AP, as you are looking at an overall performance not a small segment.

[Light]

I think the main question when you have a sprinter in a route or a router in a sprint is do these incongruous horses have a chance to win. I don't care what the equalization chart tells me.

First I do know from my records that about 11% win going sprint to route and about 9% win going route to sprint. I'm talking 6f or 5.5f when I say sprint, not 6 1/2f or 7f. But that's all horses including those that don't have a prayer if they were at their usual distance. The percentage is obviously higher with more serious looking contenders.

I can't give away what I use but if you study these kinds of horses you will come up with some pretty good rules to go by.I had an interesting one at RP a few weeks ago where the horse didn't really look like it could go route to a 5f sprint at all. But it was the class of the field in a stake race. I bet 3 horses in that race and none were around until this horse came from the clouds at 18-1 to nail it. I'll tell you I was a bit shocked myself. No equalization chart would have given you that horse.You just got to know what type of distance changer might win those races.

[jeebus1083]

I can't give away what I use but if you study these kinds of horses you will come up with some pretty good rules to go by.

Geez, my $2 bets are really going to drive your prices down... :lol: