AQI- first three races

[David McKenzie]

My picks:


AQU01
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
1 Private Practice C 8/5 23.0 $1.19 -25.3 7/2
3 Cool Sweep C 6 21.6 $3.03 8.6 4
7 Infiltrator C 9/2 17.5 $1.92 -0.9 5
4 Sweep 'Em C 8 17.5 $3.15 7.2 5


AQU02
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
2 Bella Bourie C 3 36.5 $2.92 15.3 9/5
8 One Bad Sister C 12 20.5 $5.34 13.9 4
5 Tallonsy C 30 12.2 $7.57 9.3 8


AQU03
Prg Horse Cont Odds Prob $Net Opt% Fair Odds
7 Open Flirt C 6/5 29.2 $1.28 -30.0 5/2
3 Richie's Cat C 5 17.5 $2.10 1.0 5
2 Hollywood Wonder C 8 17.5 $3.16 7.3 5
5 Tough City Girl C 6 15.5 $2.17 1.4 6

[formula_2002]

David, do use a commercial program to calculate the "Fair Odds", or do you do the calcs based on commercially sold data.

Thanks
Joe M

[David McKenzie]

Joe,

I use HSH as the toolbox. However, six users can come up with six completely different sets of odds lines. A myriad host of factors come into play.

For example, how many contenders do you want to use? Which contenders do you want to use? Which of the hundreds of fields are you using? How are you assigning weights? How have you set up your F-table? Are you using odds smoothing? I could continue, but I think you get the idea.

Tonight some of us were sharing our picks in the HSH private section and in all instances but one (where Cumberland Blues and I had the same contenders, but different lines) we had different contenders and different odds lines.

There is no rigid "right" way to proceed as subjectivity and judgment are involved; it's sort of like art and science blended together in a Bass-0-Matic. And if you're lucky, you'll hear Dan Akryod exclaim, "Hey, that's good bass!"

:>)

[formula_2002]

David, if you don’t mind, allow me to pursue this a little further. I‘d like an understanding of HSH .
I have been an ALL-WAYS user going on 4 years and it sounds to me that HSH perhaps publishes various speed, pace, class figures etc. and they give you a “TOOL BOX” to manipulate the data and create what ALL-WAYS call profiles, which are arrangements of weighted factors such as speed, pace, class figures with the intent of generating an odds line.
Is this along the lines (pun intended) of HSH.

Thanks
Joe M

[David McKenzie]

Joe,

The "toolbox" is my term, not HSH's. It's not one program; it's more like lots of sandwiches jammed into one large picnic basket.

Perhaps the easiest thing would be for you to check out their website and see if it's something that might interest you. There are screen shots which will give you a better idea of what I'm talking about.

Incidentally, I had All-Ways, All-In-One, 5-In-1, 4-In1, 3-In-1 and the very first 1-In-1 which was called ESP -- Early Sustained Presser. Basically, Dick Mitchell glommed that straight from Sartin.
Some people don't know he was involved with Sartin, but he was. And ESP was a great little program. I still have it somewhere...made a lot of money with it way back when...you know, the "old days."

:>)