3 YO Eclipse [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Valuist

11-07-2011, 01:24 PM

After his 2nd place finish in the Dirt Mile, can a case be made for anyone besides Shackleford? I heard Byk make a case for Caleb's Posse, but cmon, its horse of the year, not horse of the day.

11-07-2011, 01:31 PM

After his 2nd place finish in the Dirt Mile, can a case be made for anyone besides Shackleford? I heard Byk make a case for Caleb's Posse, but cmon, its horse of the year, not horse of the day.

None of them are good enough to waste much time thinking about. I could see Caleb's Posse, Shackleford, and I guess even Animal Kingdom. It will be forgotten in no time since nobody will care. Brilliant Speed is probably the best of the lot, and he isn't much.

toussaud

11-07-2011, 01:31 PM

Valuist

11-07-2011, 02:05 PM

There isn't a more 3YO resume more impressive than the ohio derby, Amsterdam, king's bishop, dirt mile. by FAR the most impressive. the only one close is stay thirsty IMHO

I would hardly call that horse of the day.

And what about the races he lost? Wasn't he drowned in the Southwest? How about the other 2 turn races? I don't have Shacklefords pps w/me but off the top of my head I know he won the Preakness, 2nd in the FL Derby, 2nd in the Haskell, 2nd in the Dirt Mile, 2nd in the Indy Derby and 4th in the KY Derby after setting the pace.

Yeah, Caleb's Posse is by FAR the most impressive. :rolleyes:

Linny

11-07-2011, 02:10 PM

NTamm1215

11-07-2011, 07:44 PM

And what about the races he lost? Wasn't he drowned in the Southwest? How about the other 2 turn races? I don't have Shacklefords pps w/me but off the top of my head I know he won the Preakness, 2nd in the FL Derby, 2nd in the Haskell, 2nd in the Dirt Mile, 2nd in the Indy Derby and 4th in the KY Derby after setting the pace.

Yeah, Caleb's Posse is by FAR the most impressive. :rolleyes:

Caleb's Posse did this crazy thing that doesn't matter anymore when determining year end awards - he won quality races. Shackleford's other win this year besides the Preakness was a N1X. You shouldn't get the award for participation, unless it is the 2010 HOTY we're talking about.

Spalding No!

11-07-2011, 07:54 PM

Caleb is the only male 3yo with more than one G1 win. One of those wins was against his elders. Despite being better at 1 turn he won 2 turn stakes, albeit lesser ones. You can make the case that his Amersterdam was against some G1 types. I'd love to see him back for the Cigar Mile, also a G1 vs. older.

Shack danced every dance but that might work against him because he won so infrequently.

Who in the Amsterdam was a Grade 1-type? Even an out-of-his-element To Honor And Serve isn't a Grade 1 winner. Redeemed, Wine Police, Travelin Man etc. all Grade 3 at best, never mind Grade 2.

The Dirt Mile consisted mainly of fellow 3yos. The older horses in there were laughable if you believe Trappe Shot was out of form going in.

Even if he wins the Eclipse, Caleb's Posse still has a lot to prove.

keithw84

11-07-2011, 08:20 PM

Even if he wins the Eclipse, Caleb's Posse still has a lot to prove.

Any of the potential winners of this division have a lot to prove...

Spalding No!

11-07-2011, 08:26 PM

Any of the potential winners of this division have a lot to prove...

Yep. I'm just playing devil's advocate lest Caleb's Posse becomes a superhorse overnight for beating Shackleford, Wilburn, and Tapizar.

Robert Fischer

11-07-2011, 08:29 PM

Caleb's Posse did this crazy thing that doesn't matter anymore when determining year end awards - he won quality races. Shackleford's other win this year besides the Preakness was a N1X. You shouldn't get the award for participation, unless it is the 2010 HOTY we're talking about.

C'MON MANNN :D

elysiantraveller

11-07-2011, 09:37 PM

The Dirt Mile field he beat had 1 G3, 4 G2, and 3 G1 victories. The Grade ones all being different horses. Plus it's against elders... I'd say its a pretty impressive victory add the biggest 3yo sprint of the year I would say Caleb's Posse has a pretty good resume against his peers. Plus no misplaced horse in either the sprint or the classic would have been anywhere near him in the mile.

Longshot

11-08-2011, 08:30 AM

You can make your choice from the group below

Caleb's Posse (Only 3 yr old to win 2 G1)
1st G1 BC Mile
1st G1 King's Bishop
1st G3 Ohio Derby

Shackleford
1st G1 Preakness
2nd G1 Florida Derby
2nd G1 Haskel
2nd G1 BC Mile

Animal Kingdom
1st G1 Kentucky Derby
1st G3 Spiral
2nd G1 Preakness

Stay Thirsty
1st G1 Travers
1st G2 Jim Dandy
2nd G1 Belmont
1st G3 Gotham

Prayer For Relief
1st G3 Iowa Derby
1st G2 West Virginia Derby
1st G2 Super Derby

Nehro
2nd G1 Kentucky Derby
2nd G1 Arkansas Derby
2nd G2 Louisiana Derby

Uncle Mo
1st G2 Kelso
2nd G1 King's Bishop

Ruler On Ice
1st G1 Belmont
2nd G2 Pennsylvania Derby

classhandicapper

11-08-2011, 10:18 AM

The only problem I have with Caleb's Posse getting 3YO of the year is that "in general" the best sprint races aren't of the same quality as the best route races. Many of the best versatile horses stretch out going for higher purses and greater glory in routes. The routes tend to be more prestigious races even when graded similarly to the sprints.

You could argue that this year that wasn't the case, but that opens the door to a lot of subjective analysis on which a lot of us would disagree.

Jasonm921

11-08-2011, 10:28 AM

I have no problem giving it to Caleb's Posse. Winning races is what it is all about. He won two Grade 1's (one against Uncle Mo) and the other the Dirt Mile. If they want to give it to Stay Thirsty I would be fine with that. But Shackleford is illogical. If his non winning resume in big races is defining him as a 3 year old champ then Ruler on Ice is not that far behind him.

NTamm1215

11-08-2011, 11:00 AM

Caleb's Posse also won the G2 Amsterdam, which is not on that list.

Tom

11-08-2011, 11:03 AM

Stay Thirsty.

depalma113

11-08-2011, 12:20 PM

Stay Thirsty.

How would you give it to Stay Thirsty when Ruler on Ice finished ahead of him two of the three times they met?

iceknight

11-08-2011, 12:31 PM

How would you give it to Stay Thirsty when Ruler on Ice finished ahead of him two of the three times they met?

Point Given to you!

Robert Fischer

11-08-2011, 01:01 PM

Animal Kingdom.

Leparoux

11-10-2011, 12:24 PM

I would vote Animal Kingdom

11-10-2011, 12:27 PM

You can make your choice from the group below

Caleb's Posse (Only 3 yr old to win 2 G1)
1st G1 BC Mile
1st G1 King's Bishop
1st G3 Ohio Derby
1st G2 Amsterdam

You forgot one, added it.

Tom

11-10-2011, 12:37 PM

[QUOTE=depalma113]How would you give it to Stay Thirsty when Ruler on Ice finished ahead of him two of the three times they met?}

I'm easy.

TommyCh

11-10-2011, 01:01 PM

Who cares? Instead of jetting in on the Gulfstreams and getting all dressed up to watch Kenny Rice, these people should be working on ways to save the game. If this mediocrity is not a wake up call, then these people are in comas.

Valuist

11-10-2011, 01:29 PM

How would you give it to Stay Thirsty when Ruler on Ice finished ahead of him two of the three times they met?

If Ruler on Ice wins the Clark against older horses, he has to be moved into the conversation.

MadWorld

11-10-2011, 03:37 PM

And what about the races he lost? Wasn't he drowned in the Southwest? How about the other 2 turn races? I don't have Shacklefords pps w/me but off the top of my head I know he won the Preakness, 2nd in the FL Derby, 2nd in the Haskell, 2nd in the Dirt Mile, 2nd in the Indy Derby and 4th in the KY Derby after setting the pace.

Yeah, Caleb's Posse is by FAR the most impressive. :rolleyes:

So Shackleford has one Stakes win all year and Caleb's Posse is only "Horse of the Day"? Doesn't make much sense to me.

Valuist

11-10-2011, 04:22 PM

So Shackleford has one Stakes win all year and Caleb's Posse is only "Horse of the Day"? Doesn't make much sense to me.

That "one win" was the Preakness, a race win which he battled hard all race and still held off the KY Derby winner. I can't think of a single race by a 3YO this year that was more impressive. Sure, Uncle Mo had a bigger figure under dream circumstances but a bigger fig alone won't get much. He arguably was the best horse in races like the FL Derby and Haskell when he did all the work, only to get nailed late by a horse who benefitted from the pace (like at GP) or the bias (at Mth in the Haskell).

Caleb's Posse's Dirt Mile win was solid although I question some of what he beat at Saratoga. 3 year olds running at 6.5f and 7f are usually there for a reason; they aren't good enough to compete at the Classic distances and Caleb's Posse is a perfect example of that.

OTM Al

11-10-2011, 04:54 PM

Caleb's Posse's Dirt Mile win was solid although I question some of what he beat at Saratoga. 3 year olds running at 6.5f and 7f are usually there for a reason; they aren't good enough to compete at the Classic distances and Caleb's Posse is a perfect example of that.

This is an attitude I still don't get. Why must a horse be able to compete at 1 1/4 miles to be considered good? Can't a horse that is a sprinter or miler be considered good? Or how about a turf runner? Or how about a true stayer? Why can only middle distance horses on dirt be considered the best? If this is the case, then there is no need to hold any more than one race on BC day.

Spalding No!

11-10-2011, 06:23 PM

This is an attitude I still don't get. Why must a horse be able to compete at 1 1/4 miles to be considered good? Can't a horse that is a sprinter or miler be considered good? Or how about a turf runner? Or how about a true stayer? Why can only middle distance horses on dirt be considered the best? If this is the case, then there is no need to hold any more than one race on BC day.

For quite a while, I believe that the Vosburgh (which was often run at 7f) and the BC Sprint were the only Grade 1 sprints in NA. I don't think it's necessarily an irrational attitude to hold sprinters subordinate to classic horses. Isn't the popular lament come Kentucky Derby time that we are breeding nothing but sprinter/milers that stagger to the wire in the Classics?

Most sprinters can't stay a route of ground competitively. Most routers begin their careers sprinting successfully. Sprinting is like being really good at the 6th grade.

classhandicapper

11-11-2011, 05:24 PM

This is an attitude I still don't get. Why must a horse be able to compete at 1 1/4 miles to be considered good? Can't a horse that is a sprinter or miler be considered good? Or how about a turf runner? Or how about a true stayer? Why can only middle distance horses on dirt be considered the best? If this is the case, then there is no need to hold any more than one race on BC day.

I agree. All those other categories of horses can be good/great.

IMO the reason dirt sprinters are generally held in slightly lower regard is that any very versatile horse that could go either way will generally be stretched out because the purses are larger, there are more Grade 1 opportunities, and there are more prestigious races in the routes.

So in the average season, the routes tend to be of slightly higher quality than the sprints even when the Grades are the same.

You could easily argue that was not the case this year though.

Steve R

11-11-2011, 05:40 PM

...Caleb's Posse's Dirt Mile win was solid although I question some of what he beat at Saratoga. 3 year olds running at 6.5f and 7f are usually there for a reason; they aren't good enough to compete at the Classic distances and Caleb's Posse is a perfect example of that.
Why the emphasis on classic distances? In North America, classic distances on dirt are the least competitive of all. A mediocre horse that wins a slow race at 10f but isn't fast enough to compete in high-end sprints shouldn't necessarily get preference over a legitimate world-class sprinter/miler. I credit the Europeans for being less biased about distance. Three of the top six horses in Timeform history were sprinters or milers.

Tom

11-11-2011, 06:21 PM

Caleb won at 6,7,8,8.5, at different tracks, throughout the year. He beat Uncle No Mo who many considered to be the next Sinister Minister.......

Animal Kingdom...won a triple crown race and placed in another......

What if Ruler on Ice wins the Clark? A triple crown race and older horses.....

Leparoux

11-12-2011, 09:19 AM

Tom

11-12-2011, 10:48 AM

I think to win the 3yo prize, one needs to win one of the premier 3 yo races - triple crown or Travers or Haskell. Everything up to the Derby is basically show-prep. After that, it is the real deal. A win against older is pretty important, though.

11-12-2011, 10:48 AM

I think Classic distances should be favored in this country because that is where the money is and the most prestigious races are run at longer distances.

However, in this year of mediocrity, it doesn't really matter. Whoever wins will be soon forgotten.

toussaud

11-22-2011, 11:06 AM

@GrahamMotion Animal Kingdom won Ky Derby handily, close in Preakness, and wiped out on Belmont. Three most important 3 yo races. AK is HOY.

wow really

11-22-2011, 11:53 AM

@GrahamMotion Animal Kingdom won Ky Derby handily, close in Preakness, and wiped out on Belmont. Three most important 3 yo races. AK is HOY.

wow really

He is just doing what he can to win, no matter how ridiculous it sounds. HOY for AK is laughable.