TRACK TAKE VS REAL DOLLAR LOSS

[formula_2002]

This chart suggests a different way for LOOKING AT the effect of track out and breakage.
It shows the $ loss when a bet is made on all horse and the $ loss when a bet is made on favorites only.
It uses empirical data rather then the standard method of summing 1/(odds+1) for each horse in a race and then subtracting that result for 1 to determine the track-take.

MID 1999 TO LATE 2003
1000 MIN # HORSES PER TRACK

TRACK# HORSES % $ LOSS # FAV % $ LOSS
APX 1144 -0.20 135 -0.03
AQU 17038 -0.23 2154 -0.14
BEL 14163 -0.18 1746 -0.19
CDX 3503 -0.19 378 -0.21
CRC 15483 -0.23 2020 -0.22
DEL 3487 -0.23 471 -0.20
DMR 6418 -0.24 776 -0.16
FGX 7986 -0.24 926 -0.21
FLX 7598 -0.26 1042 -0.21
GGX 6065 -0.21 836 -0.15
GPX 9092 -0.16 1085 -0.18
HIA 1664 -0.24 215 -0.25
HOL 5572 -0.23 739 -0.16
HOU 1364 -0.26 145 -0.10
KEE 1438 -0.22 156 -0.25
LAD 3227 -0.23 383 -0.16
LRL 4696 -0.26 595 -0.20
LSX 3038 -0.36 326 -0.11
MTH 3112 -0.24 394 -0.21
OPX 1123 -0.24 121 -0.12
PEN 1015 -0.24 131 -0.14
PHA 8700 -0.21 1083 -0.21
PIM 1982 -0.24 254 -0.10
SAR 6205 -0.22 703 -0.07
SAX 15505 -0.20 1891 -0.13
SPT 1124 -0.18 127 -0.34
SUF 1637 -0.29 203 -0.20
TAM 3087 -0.28 342 -0.19
TPX 4318 -0.29 472 -0.07
TUP 4133 -0.29 511 -0.25
164917 -0.24 20360 -0.17
TOTAL AVERAGE TOTAL AVERAGE

[kenwoodallpromos]

Amazing the disserence between AP and SPT!!

[trying2win]

I remember reading a betting article once, whereby the author was trying to convince the readers to bet win only in the straight pools. If I remember correctly, he took the toteboard totals from one race and then did some illustrations with some fancy math. He took the takeout, (lets say for example, 17% on the winning horse) and then added the effect of breakage and the actual takeout was somewhat higher than 17%. Okay, I could see his point there. Case in point. If the win price after calculated out to be $9.29 for example, and the track pays off to next lowest dime figure, you'd get $9.20. I understand that.

Allegedly, racetracks figure patrons can't be bothered to be paid out in extra pennies or nickels, so they conveniently keep the spare change for themselves (a.ka. breakage). It's kind of strange when you think about it in another way. If a clerk at a store said your change was $9.29, and they gave you $9.20 by error, we'd probably notice it and make our point that we had been shorted. When the track does a similar thing with breakage behind the scenes, customers don't complain or say anything about it! Must be nice to keep all that spare change! It probably adds up to a tidy sum over a meet.

Anyways, back to the example. The author went on (via some mathematical calculations) to prove his point, that by betting to place or show, and then by adding the effects of takeout and breakage, that the total percentage takeout was higher than that of win betting. Only problem is, I forgot how he did that in the place and show calculations. If we have a PA member who's also a math whiz, could they please illustrate this author's place and show betting theory? I'd appreciate it. Maybe some other PA members would appreciate this as well.

Thanks,

Trying2win

[VetScratch]

A detailed example should not be required to illustrate what the author meant. At 17% takeout, for example, the track pays out 83% of each straight pool (before applying breakage, which is always downward rounding/truncation). For a win pool, breakage shortchanges players inversely to payoff price; as payoff price goes down the sum total of breakage costs to players goes up.

For place and show pools, the same is true but the effect is magnified since two or three sets of ticketholders are all shortchanged by breakage at prices that are almost always less than win prices. This is why the author said the percentage of negative impact from breakage is greater in the place/show pools.

Track owners fare best on chalky days on account of breakage. When dime breakage is the standard, the rule of thumb for thousands of races is that breakage will increase effective takeout on win payoffs by about one-percent (1%).

Some (if not most/all) Canadian tracks figure nickel breakage, and some circuits like NYRA figure breakage via a price-tiered schedule that I recall someone (probably Figman) posted on this board.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I guess you can play with stats a lot! Win/show breakage gets very large when figuring the % just based on the profit on place/show! My point was also the variation of return on favs at different tracks.

[Brian Flewwelling]

Originally posted by formula_2002

This chart suggests a different way for LOOKING AT the effect of track out and breakage.
It shows the $ loss when a bet is made on all horse and the $ loss when a bet is made on favorites only.
It uses empirical data rather then the standard method of summing 1/(odds+1) for each horse
in a race and then subtracting that result for 1 to determine the track-take.

TRACK# HORSES % $ LOSS # FAV % $ LOSS
APX 1144 -0.20 135 -0.03
AQU 17038 -0.23 2154 -0.14
BEL 14163 -0.18 1746 -0.19
CDX 3503 -0.19 378 -0.21
DMR 6418 -0.24 776 -0.16
SPT 1124 -0.18 127 -0.34
164917 -0.24 20360 -0.17
TOTAL AVERAGE TOTAL AVERAGE



Very interesting view. It clearly shows the real take out. And it shows that the favourite is NOT over-bet.

I don't see where it shows anything about Breakage? But VetScratch covered that.

Fleww