BASIC SYSTEM UPDATE

[formula_2002]

From time to time I like to report on my work.

I call it the Basic system, which I developed in 2002 , and it is based upon 4600 back fitted races that returned a profit of 6%

Since that time I have logged in 2266 races, that produced 20% winners and a 4% dollar loss.
Average winning odds of 3.80-1, max odds 20-1.

There are two other systems that are spinoffs of the basic system.

Currently, I'm posting picks on a system that is based on 8843 races, which returned 22% wins and a dollar loss of 2%.

I have only logged in about 160 races for the current system.
It's returning about 4% profit.

Joe M

[jackad]

Joe,
Aren't there at least a few commercially available software programs that can do better than this?
Jack

[formula_2002]

Jack, if only it were so..

If you hear on one that even tries to present some reasonable data supporting their claims I would be interested.

Joe M

[jackad]

Joe,
Certainly not with betting every selection, but with some selectivity...?

Do you not believe that there are many (certainly not multitudes, but also not extremely rare and singular exceptions) who have managed to achieve substantial betting profits over the long term? Among them, perhaps, various contributors to this forum?

Jack

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by jackad
Joe,
Certainly not with betting every selection, but with some selectivity...?

Jack, of course "selectivity" is important, that's we all are trying to do..You only have to be the overlays..the question is, which ones are the overlays!!



Do you not believe that there are many (certainly not multitudes, but also not extremely rare and singular exceptions) who have managed to achieve substantial betting profits over the long term? Among them, perhaps, various contributors to this forum?
Jack

I only believe what can be proven..everything else is a wish and a dream, entertaining..but still a wish and a dream.

Joe M

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by formula_2002
Jack, if only it were so..

If you hear on one that even tries to present some reasonable data supporting their claims I would be interested.



For what I consider reasonable, take a look at the excel file on my web page, with the Label "SURPRISE"

It provieds back-up for the following statement.

"TO DETERMINE 95% CONFIDENCE FOR 10% PROFIT WITH AN ERROR OF 5% YOU NEED TO LOOK AT 37610 HORSES,
IN ODDS RANGE OF 1-1 THROUGH 10-1 (ASSUMING 1 BET PER RACE)"

[Lefty]

formula, how'd you do at craps?

[formula_2002]

Last I played, I managed to turn a -1 1/2 % vig into -20%..

They love me!!