Belmont 10-26-11 Wed.

[KidCapper]

Heading over to Belmont for some action and right now the track is fast and turf is firm so we'll handicap that way. $20 WP on top pick and roll the pick 3's for the dollar for a total pick 3 bet of $189.

Race -1 A tough full field of 16k Handicappers going 6F here on the turf. I'm taking a shot with the :7: here at 15-1. With a lot of the speed signed on getting outside posts, the pace of this event will be hot. Which should set-up nicely for this stalker who has enough speed to lay close. 3rd time off the shelf too. Bombs away in the opener. :7: :2: :1: :1a:

Race -2 Optional claiming event greets us in the 2nd half of the double. I'm going with the :4: for Dutrow. Probable favorite looks the part vs. these and will play catch if catch can on the lead. :4: :7: :3:

Race -3 Compact field of 5 here. Hard to look past the very well bred 1st timer out of the Pletcher barn. Been working lights out for 20% debut MSW trainer. :4: :2: :3:

Race -4 I love the :3: in here for Servis with Paco up. Winner of last 2 is going great guns at the moment and Servis hits at 27% after winning last race so he knows how to keep them running once they are good. Stalker will get a good set-up as well. :3: :8: :2:

Race -5 Taking a shot with the :11: to upset the uncoupled Engleheart entry. JR keeps the mount after a bad break last out cost this one all chance. Tries the grass and stretches out today to the 7F dist at a price we like. :11: :2: :4:

Race -6 Love the :5: on the double drop for Pletcher here who hits at 43% on the move. Caught a muddy strip first out vs better where she dueled into a 44.1 half. Should be tighter 2nd off the shelf for another 24% move. Lots to like here. :5: :8: :9:

Race -7 Going with the :5: at 6-1 here. Caught a yielding strip last out going long on the 1st time on the grass. Stays on the green and cuts back to 6F today and 2nd time in the maiden claiming ranks. :5: :4: :11:

Race -8 Let's go with the :4: here at 8-1 on the line. Freshened for this for 27% layoff trainer. Winner of last 3 is the "now" horse of the group with most of these coming off long layoffs. :4: :9: :1:

Race -9 The Lucky Last and I'm going home with the :3: at 3-1 on the ML. JR takes the mount for under-rated trainer Chatterpaul. Was flying late in last and should get up in time here. :3: :10: :8:

Good Luck N Good Racing From The KidCapper !!!

[PhantomOnTour]

Alright KidCap...i made the :7: in race 1 as my PA contest pick earlier this morning....fingers crossed.
Rails way out today on both turf courses....speed should do well.
No real betting for me today...gotta look at BrCup stuff.
Good luck KidCap

[keilan]

race #1

1-2/1-2-4-8 x's

[keilan]

race #1

1-2/1-2-4-8 x's

Finished 4-1

[PhantomOnTour]

Was that jacobson's first turf winner of the meet?
I know he had been 0-fer through mid October...i would not have put him on top if i bet that race.

[KidCapper]

Was that jacobson's first turf winner of the meet?
I know he had been 0-fer through mid October...i would not have put him on top if i bet that race.

One of the same reasons I didn't use that one. :bang:

Totals for Race 1

Bet $40
Ret $00
Net-$40

Pick 3 Bet $189 for card

Next !!

[keilan]

Race #2

great betting race

1 horse not good enough
1a horse will fade in stretch
2 horse will be sitting mid-pack and can be part of exotics
3 horse - see 1a
4 horse speed of the speed but can he fend off the 2 and 6 late
5 horse - see the 2 horse
6 horse can win this -- flying late
7 horse better then appears use in exotics

wager

tri 2-6/2-6-4-5-7/2-6-4-5-7

x's 2-6/2-6 -5-7

[keilan]

Race #2

great betting race

1 horse not good enough
1a horse will fade in stretch
2 horse will be sitting mid-pack and can be part of exotics
3 horse - see 1a
4 horse speed of the speed but can he fend off the 2 and 6 late
5 horse - see the 2 horse
6 horse can win this -- flying late
7 horse better then appears use in exotics

wager

tri 2-6/2-6-4-5-7/2-6-4-5-7

x's 2-6/2-6 -5-7

Ran pretty much like I thought except for the 7 horse winning - knew he was better then he'd shown....

Finishes - 7-2-6

[KidCapper]

Race -2 Optional claiming event greets us in the 2nd half of the double. I'm going with the :4: for Dutrow. Probable favorite looks the part vs. these and will play catch if catch can on the lead. :4: :7: :3:

Top pick finishes 4th but 2nd choice starts a pick3 for me here.

Bet $80
Ret $00
Net-$80

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card

[keilan]

Race #4

Another outstanding betting race, I think the public has it wrong making the 3 horse the favorite.

I like either the 2 or 8 horse to win this

My "B" horses are 1a-5-6-9

My "C" horses are 1-3-4-7

x's 2-8/2-8-1-5-6-9

tri 2-8/2-8-1-5-6-9/2-8-1-5-6-9-3-4-7

[PhantomOnTour]

Paco has been doing well in his few Bel mounts, but 8-5 on the #3 is just too low in this competitive race.

Giving #7 a shot here as i still think speed will do well on turf today...gotta avoid a duel with the bomb #5 horse. Gotta use the 2-8 as Keilan pointed out.
For fun let's play an ex:

2-8 w 2-3-7-8
win bet on #7

[PhantomOnTour]

Wow...the #7 gets dueled into submission by Mr Enrico...dream trip for Paco on the winner.
Is it the inside that's good on turf with the rails out?
Don't wanna be hung wide with rails out.

[KidCapper]

Race-3 was a whiff. missed it all there

Race -4 I had an ON TOP winner at a very low price.

Totals thru 4 races...

Bet $160
Ret $78
Net-$82

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card with no return so far...

[keilan]

Race #4

Another outstanding betting race, I think the public has it wrong making the 3 horse the favorite.

I like either the 2 or 8 horse to win this

My "B" horses are 1a-5-6-9

My "C" horses are 1-3-4-7

x's 2-8/2-8-1-5-6-9

tri 2-8/2-8-1-5-6-9/2-8-1-5-6-9-3-4-7


I think the 3 horse just ran a new "top" and looked pretty decent doing it. Type of horse where one needs to watch video to gauge past performances.

My "B" horses easily out-ran their odds....

Finishes 3-6-2-9-1a-8

[PhantomOnTour]

5-1 on the #2 here in R5 is good enough for me...haven't made an actual bet yet today but i will here.
Rodinia #6 will be tough...using the 1-5 as well
good luck y'all

[keilan]

5-1 on the #2 here in R5 is good enough for me...haven't made an actual bet yet today but i will here.
Rodinia #6 will be tough...using the 1-5 as well
good luck y'all


7/2 isn't bad either :ThmbUp: nice

The DD too these in the 6th are paying

#2 $68
#5 $45
#9 $25
#10 $140
#10 $145

[KidCapper]

Race -5 Taking a shot with the :11: to upset the uncoupled Engleheart entry. JR keeps the mount after a bad break last out cost this one all chance. Tries the grass and stretches out today to the 7F dist at a price we like. :11: :2: :4:

Top pick failed to fire but I hit the race with my 2nd pick to stay alive to the 3rd leg of the pick 3. Totals thru 5 races..

Bet $200
Ret $78
Net-$122

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card with no return so far but we're alive..

[PhantomOnTour]

Thx Keilan...that race played out nicely.

Like the #2 again here in R6...trainer is rollin, gets nice inside stalk behind a lot of speed, move at the right time and get a piece at 8-1

[keilan]

Race 6

11 horses in the field but I'm thinking only 5 of these have a shot at winning unless another horse in here runs a race no one sees coming other then the barn :)

The horse I like best is the 2 horse and the others are 5-9-10-11.. The 2 horse has more to give and I'll expect a better number from her than her last.

wager

win #2
x's 2/5-9-10-11
smaller 5-9-10-11/2

[KidCapper]

Race -6 Love the :5: on the double drop for Pletcher here who hits at 43% on the move. Caught a muddy strip first out vs better where she dueled into a 44.1 half. Should be tighter 2nd off the shelf for another 24% move. Lots to like here. :5: :8: :9:

Top choice dud. Hit the pick 3... :bang: Totals thru 6..

Bet $240
Ret $78
Net-$122

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card
Pick 3 Ret $19.80

[PhantomOnTour]

Thx Keilan...that race played out nicely.

Like the #2 again here in R6...trainer is rollin, gets nice inside stalk behind a lot of speed, move at the right time and get a piece at 8-1
Ran about as well as i could have expected considering the winner was cruising and much the best...got a great trip with rail opening up into the lane...oh well...on to R7

[keilan]

Race 6

11 horses in the field but I'm thinking only 5 of these have a shot at winning unless another horse in here runs a race no one sees coming other then the barn :)

The horse I like best is the 2 horse and the others are 5-9-10-11.. The 2 horse has more to give and I'll expect a better number from her than her last.

wager

win #2
x's 2/5-9-10-11
smaller 5-9-10-11/2

Not liking this much today - finishes 9-11-2 looked a bit like C Velasquez was instructed to just pickup a cheque, could have easily split horses on the turn and ran away up the inside.......

[PhantomOnTour]

Bel R7...gimme the #1 and #3...rail horse is gonna go under Cohen and Ramon and the 3 sit right behind...#1 is 12-1 and Cohen must go from the rail...let's see what happens.
#5 could get a share late on the cutback but not using on top...wow, tough race with the Goldberg firster in as well.

[KidCapper]

Race -7 Going with the :5: at 6-1 here. Caught a yielding strip last out going long on the 1st time on the grass. Stays on the green and cuts back to 6F today and 2nd time in the maiden claiming ranks. :5: :4: :11:

Another to pick backfire. Hit the pick 3 with the 2nd pick. Totals thru 7 races..

Bet $280
Ret $78
Net-$202

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card
Pick 3 Ret $63.55 and rolling.

[keilan]

Race 8

Lots of possibilities here and not sold that the 10 horse should be 7/5

Six horse box in tri 2-3-5-7-9-10

[keilan]

Race 8

Lots of possibilities here and not sold that the 10 horse should be 7/5

Six horse box in tri 2-3-5-7-9-10

finishes 4-7-6-9

[keilan]

Race 9

leaking oil pretty good.........


x's 3-12/3-12-8

[KidCapper]

Race -8 Let's go with the :4: here at 8-1 on the line. Freshened for this for 27% layoff trainer. Winner of last 3 is the "now" horse of the group with most of these coming off long layoffs. :4: :9: :1:

Hey Hey I hit an ON TOP winner with a price play !! About time. Totals thur 8 RACEs..


Bet $320
Ret $316
Net-$04

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card
Pick 3 Ret $158.50 and rolling.

[keilan]

Race 9

leaking oil pretty good.........


x's 3-12/3-12-8

Beautiful the 5 was my 4th horse and of course they run 5-3-12

Kidcapper nice catch in the 8th :ThmbUp:

[KidCapper]

Top pick ran 2nd to finish an up and down day.



Bet $360
Ret $357
Net-$03 on straight action.

Pick 3 Bet $189 for the card
Pick 3 Ret $158.50

Pick 3 Net-$30.50

Better here then what Keeneland did to me today.lol

Til Next Time.