Stay inside and get shuffled back or tip out and be 1st over? whats better?

[Zippy Chippy]

I'm talking about 1/2 and 5/8th tracks only. Feel that a mile track is such a different game.

I'm always amazed when the horse is on the backstretch after the half mile pole and the horse is in 4th and the second flow is about to start and the driver elects to stay in. I mean going out and being 1st over isn't ideal but I feel like you are atleast giving yourself a chance. Maybe you'll get some cover, or you may get a breaker. Hardly ever do you get shuffled to last and still win the race. Thoughts?

[Hanover1]

Not much to think here. You either stay, hoping a hole opens up down the lane, or you give your horse a chance to get into the race without waiting for something that may not happen. Old man told me once that if I wanted to win a particular race I was gonna hafta be up front at some point in the mile....

[baconswitchfarm]

It depends on what you bet.

[Zippy Chippy]

I just feel like when the driver decides to stay in he's pretty much conceding he has no horse. I think you have a better chance of grinding 1st over for a little bit than dropping in the back and having to manuever or fly up the lightning lane or go way wide.

[Ray2000]

MHO
It depends on a lot of factors

1. 1 brush horse already used his brush and tucked 4th
2. Track has or doesn't have an open lane, (effects sitting 3 at rail, more than 4th)
...such as Maywood, Western Fair, Northlands, Pompano, Tioga, Windsor
3. Pace of race to the half
4. Wind factor, horse can't take air.
5. Class factor, in over his head and might get a minor check if others make a mistake.

but Zippy, I agree, for nothing is more upsetting to casual fans than thinking they got stiffed...
...and maybe they did.

[Hanover1]

Many horses cannot take the trip 1st over for, say a half, or even a stiff quarter if used for a quick 8th to get the position. The guys like, say Pierce, that you see go first over alot, know they have the horse to do so, and have a great feel for the splits as they occur. Lesser drivers are not so inclined, and same holds for lesser horses as well. Most (we can only hope...) times when observing a 1st over move, the guy either got hung (usually seen on smaller tracks) or understands the fractions are favorable to position in that manner. 1/2 mile racing is favorable for these moves for me because on a big track you have lots more room to get out and not get hung in a turn.