PaceAdvantage Threads and Odds

[Robert Goren]

How much does something posted here effect the odds? I thought I noticed in my thread on bridgejumper races that toward the end that there was more money coming in late against the jumper horses. I did not keep a record on that so I don't know for sure. I know from time to time some people post their picks and they do well. I was wondering if any of them noticed a change in the odds. The Pondman thread about shippers got me to wondering if he had noticed what effect his thread had his horses.

[SansuiSC]

Could be the Bridge Jumper Alert system on twitter. I assume you subscribe as it was started on this board a few years ago and is private to keep spammers out. Did you check it against that?
http://twitter.com/#!/bridgejumper

[Robert Goren]

Could be the Bridge Jumper Alert system on twitter. I assume you subscribe as it was started on this board a few years ago and is private to keep spammers out. Did you check it against that?
http://twitter.com/#!/bridgejumperI subscribe to it. It does not give out very many races.

[Robert Fischer]

I thought I noticed in my thread on bridgejumper races that toward the end that there was more money coming in late against the jumper horses.


was it "smart money"?

did those jumpers do poorly, or did those late alternatives run well ?

[PICSIX]

was it "smart money"?

did those jumpers do poorly, or did those late alternatives run well ?

99% of money wagered on horse racing is not "smart money" including mine. :lol:

[Ian Meyers]

99% of money wagered on horse racing is not "smart money" including mine. :lol:

Completely untrue. Prices at most tracks are set by the sharpest handicappers with the most data. I know for a fact that CRW handle at some TB tracks are 20-25% of total handle. That % doesn't include sharp guys using programs like HTR, Horsestreet, J-Capper, or professional circuit players like Ernie Dahlman, Duke Matties and Andy Serling that make notes on every race and make few mistakes in setting prices.

I wish you were right. 10 years ago I made money on the up every year betting NYRA. I can't do that anymore because of the fall-off in liquidity though I do each year at Saratoga because you get that influx of tourist money.

[PICSIX]

Completely untrue. Prices at most tracks are set by the sharpest handicappers with the most data. I know for a fact that CRW handle at some TB tracks are 20-25% of total handle. That % doesn't include sharp guys using programs like HTR, Horsestreet, J-Capper, or professional circuit players like Ernie Dahlman, Duke Matties and Andy Serling that make notes on every race and make few mistakes in setting prices.

I wish you were right. 10 years ago I made money on the up every year betting NYRA. I can't do that anymore because of the fall-off in liquidity though I do each year at Saratoga because you get that influx of tourist money.

Okay, not smart enough to make a long term profit!

[Ian Meyers]

With that statement I agree. Again with a 21% chop it's really hard to make money.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

CRW ??? handle

Sorry,but just drawing a complete blank here.

[Cardus]

How much does something posted here effect the odds? I thought I noticed in my thread on bridgejumper races that toward the end that there was more money coming in late against the jumper horses. I did not keep a record on that so I don't know for sure. I know from time to time some people post their picks and they do well. I was wondering if any of them noticed a change in the odds. The Pondman thread about shippers got me to wondering if he had noticed what effect his thread had his horses.

Being in a generous mood, I'd say "negligible".

[Ian Meyers]

Computer Robotic Wagering

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Computer Robotic Wagering

Mercy bucket!

[bob60566]

Completely untrue. Prices at most tracks are set by the sharpest handicappers with the most data. I know for a fact that CRW handle at some TB tracks are 20-25% of total handle. That % doesn't include sharp guys using programs like HTR, Horsestreet, J-Capper, or professional circuit players like Ernie Dahlman, Duke Matties and Andy Serling that make notes on every race and make few mistakes in setting prices.

I wish you were right. 10 years ago I made money on the up every year betting NYRA. I can't do that anymore because of the fall-off in liquidity though I do each year at Saratoga because you get that influx of tourist money.

Ian
Would i be correct #1 would be insiders.
Number two would be software /Data sellers
Number three is pooling info and $.

All of the above receive rebates on volume bet and they are all the whales we have to play with or go against.
Mac

[riskman]

Another sign of an emerging world where humans, encounter robots on an everyday basis. People already talk with computers when they call customer service centers or drive their cars. Now we have them making wagers at ADW's. Do the software in these bots perform analysis of the wagering pools and determine bet size? What other functions do the bots perform? Who would imagine that the competition in a pari mutual game would come to this? Would like to know more info on this.

[Ian Meyers]

Do the software in these bots perform analysis of the wagering pools and determine bet size?

Yes, that's exactly what they do.

What other functions do the bots perform? Who would imagine that the competition in a pari mutual game would come to this? Would like to know more info on this.

The software compares their model forecasts (which is based upon all the data they crunch) to projected payouts (not actual current because they take into account pool movements) and sizes wagers based upon overlay algorithm, bankroll size, and projected pool final totals (so they don't overbet a track/pool). They then create a data file with all their wagers and transmit them into an ADW. They DO NOT go directly into the tote as some have stated, though the distinction isn't meaningful because they hit the ADW for a fraction of a second. Most hit the tote at a rate of 150-300 bets per minute. Contrary what many believe they don't have access to triple or superfecta runner totals. They use complex models to project payouts for those pools based upon available data (i.e win odds and exacta totals)

[bob60566]

Ian
Intresting but who are they ??? 1 or two or three.
Mac:)

[pondman]

Prices at most tracks are set by the sharpest handicappers with the most data.

???

Do you mean the Morning Line--an anticipation of human behavior? Something difficult to predict?

The sharpest handicappers will never drive the odds downward, if they can help it. There would be a diminishing return if the price moves downward much. So I'd have to disagree with this.

[Ian Meyers]

Ian
Intresting but who are they ??? 1 or two or three.
Mac:)


There are a handful of larger teams playing North America races, somewhere between 5 and 10 depending upon who you talk to. Each of them bets between $100mm and $300mm on our races. They are physically located throughout the globe.

[Robert Goren]

All that might be true, but I am not sure the computer guys are betting against the heavy favorite in the show pool at Hoosier Park or PRM.

[riskman]

Ian,
Thanks for the info.

[dkithore]

99% of money wagered on horse racing is not "smart money" including mine. :lol:

I think that is true and funny.

DK

[PaceAdvantage]

Being in a generous mood, I'd say "negligible".Ah, never miss that chance to take a swipe.

But you know what? I agree with you. When a guy like Andy Serling can make a horse their top pick and see it pay $20+, $30+, even $40+, that tells you all you need to know about the possible odds-influence of anything written here (with the possible exception being my stellar analyses of certain major races... :lol: )

[Ian Meyers]

All that might be true, but I am not sure the computer guys are betting against the heavy favorite in the show pool at Hoosier Park or PRM.


I'm sorry it got a little off topic. No CRW players I know place and show.

BTW, Robert Goren is one of my favorite all-time. I miss 'Bobby' and Alexandra Eames.

[classhandicapper]

Ah, never miss that chance to take a swipe.

But you know what? I agree with you. When a guy like Andy Serling can make a horse their top pick and see it pay $20+, $30+, even $40+, that tells you all you need to know about the possible odds-influence of anything written here (with the possible exception being my stellar analyses of certain major races... :lol: )

I'm not sure I agree with you.

It appears to me that most of Andy's long shot picks seem to involve excusing one or more bad races (on paper) for what he feels are legitimate reasons if the horse is a major contender off its back races.

We would have to ask him, but I don't think he thinks many are the most likely winner. He just believes they are good value despite the lower probability of winning and higher price.

It might be interesting to track how those horses get bet relative to their morning line or some other standard like that. Then we might get a better line on whether his opinion is impacting the odds.

Personally, at this stage I think he IS. I seem to see a lot of the long shots he picks open up shorter than I expected or get bet right after he starts pounding the table on TV. Many of the suspect favorites also seem to drift up right after he's on TV saying how over bet they are.

[castaway01]

It's a fine line. If you're talking about threads hyping up bridgejumper horses, I'm sure a few more people take notice and bet, though financially I'm not sure it would have much effect. If you're talking about the Selections thread, the vast majority are worthless, so no effect, or maybe a positive effect because people would bet on losers. If there was ever a thread where one of the most respected handicappers here (there are many but I won't name because we know who they are) said he liked a horse in an upcoming race, I do believe most people would take notice and more money would come in on this horse.

[cj]

Personally, at this stage I think he IS. I seem to see a lot of the long shots he picks open up shorter than I expected or get bet right after he starts pounding the table on TV. Many of the suspect favorites also seem to drift up right after he's on TV saying how over bet they are.

It really is hard to say. I agree that his bets take more early money, but that probably influences others to bet different horses that seem to be underbet later in the cycle. There really is no way to be sure.