View Full Version : Trainers
Observer
11-29-2003, 06:29 PM
When handicapping .. do you find there are certain trainers you just seem to click with, and others you just can never get it right with??? Okay, maybe not never, but difficulty to the point of frustration???
:confused:
dav4463
11-29-2003, 08:16 PM
When I bet against Cole Norman or Steve Asmussen, I seem to always get beat. When I play one of their seemingly "can't miss" horses, they usually run "up the track" ! Solution: Avoid these guys !!!
LOU M.
11-29-2003, 08:29 PM
They win to much to avoid them . Try betting them when you think they don't look that good. Just food for thought.
Whitehos
12-01-2003, 07:20 PM
Asmussen and Lake are positive ROI's for me. I can't remember when I cashed a ticket on a Lukas horse. Gotta know your trainers in this business. Some are in the race to win business. Others want to cash a bet next time out. Some don't push young horses. Some race sore and crippled horses. Some would never.
Very Capable Trainers with Stats you have to look past..because they're EXCELLENT Horse trainers without the TOP stock. But these Guys give you your Moneys worth.
Robert Barbara. Winter Only... Especially the Inner.
Frank Martin Sr and Greg Martin
Mark Henig. Young low end stock. 40K Md Claimers and the Like..
Bob Klesaris. Everywhere.. Not much stock.. But what he has he gets alot out of...
Scott Schwartz. Not recently, but this guy wins.
John Candlin.. who is ICE COLD.. But not for lack of Knowledge or effort.
When your looking for somone who Can beat Pletcher, Jerkens, Kimmel, Dutrow, Contessa and the Other "brand Names"
These guys are capable trainers that I bet like Butter when I like thier stocks chances.
Dan Montilion
12-01-2003, 08:51 PM
Observer,
In my play, absolutley. In my wager records I include the trainer of the key horse. It is pretty eye opening as to being in tune with some barns and little to no chance with others.
Dan Montilion
andicap
12-02-2003, 10:38 AM
Originally posted by Suff
Very Capable Trainers with Stats you have to look past..because they're EXCELLENT Horse trainers without the TOP stock. But these Guys give you your Moneys worth.
John Candlin.. who is ICE COLD.. But not for lack of Knowledge or effort.
These guys are capable trainers that I bet like Butter when I like thier stocks chances.
Huh? My records show Candlin has been winning on several longshots in the past month --
11/4 19-1
11/19 -- 9-1
11/20 -- 6-1
If that's ICE COLD, I'd like to see what your idea of on fire is.
:confused:
Valuist
12-02-2003, 11:02 AM
Frankel was my favorite this past year. I rode his streaks, both positive and negative. The toughest are some of the small operators; there's a guy here in Chicago named Charlie Vinci who I miss when he wins but bet his horses and they don't run.
Originally posted by andicap
Huh? My records show Candlin has been winning on several longshots in the past month --
11/4 19-1
11/19 -- 9-1
11/20 -- 6-1
If that's ICE COLD, I'd like to see what your idea of on fire is.
:confused:
CandLin had ONE WIN.. the entire belmont meet that recently ended. I don't use "small samples" to say a Guy is Good or bad or indifferent. I look at Meet. 1/4'rly and and annual stats. If a guy pops 3 times in the last 4 weeks That isn't a sample I track religiously.
ONE WIN.. ZERO 2nd and ZERO 3rd's at the recently concluded Belmont meet.. Thats ice cold.
CapperLou
12-02-2003, 06:29 PM
Hey Suff:
Do you track these by hand on paper or do you use a service?
What IS the easiest way to keep abreast of this stats that you know?
All the best,
CapperLou
Originally posted by CapperLou
Hey Suff:
Do you track these by hand on paper or do you use a service?
What IS the easiest way to keep abreast of this stats that you know?
All the best,
CapperLou
NYRA has great info on its Board for the WWW surfer... DRF Formulator gives me many ways view Trainers stats..
14 distinct sub catergorys with 5 ways to view the 14 catergory's in various order and race type... I can give a Guy a Real good look in 4-6 minutes with the Profiles I have set up as Templates. In addition I can get Trainer/Jockey Combo stats ripped out of the main stats..
CapperLou
12-02-2003, 08:08 PM
Hearing a lot of good things about DRF Formulator lately!! It seems to have an abundance of stats with all back races for each entry to use with, for example, my software info.
Thanks for info.
All the best,
CapperLou
mudnturf
12-09-2003, 12:22 AM
While I believe that certain trainer statistics are important, I don't think it should be the sole, or even the primary, criterion when handicapping a race. Nor should the jockey for that matter. I have always considered the horse #1, first and foremost.
Do I check the trainer's stats with horses first or second "off a claim", or "off a layoff", or going from sprint to route, or route to sprint, etc. etc. ? Sure I do. But only after checking the horse's past performances for positive clues.
Perhaps the one area where I pay more attention to the trainer stats is when it comes to first time starters. I firmly believe that some trainers get their youngsters ready to run right out of the box, while others would rather use the horse's debut race, and even second start as a learning experience.
Overall, I guess I'd compare a thoroughbred trainer to a baseball manager or a football coach. He could lay out the best of game plans, but if he doesn't have the stock, he'll have a hard time making the playoffs.
Here's an interesting "stat" you might want to mull over.
The Indianapolis Colts just clinched their division and secured home field advantage for the AFC playoffs. Their coach, Tony Dungy, has had four teams in the playoffs in prior years. Not one of those four teams scored a touchdown in their playoff appearances. Are you willing to bet that this year's Colts will not score a touchdown in the playoffs? I'm not.
In summary, all Im saying is that in all three cases (manager, coach, trainer) the stats can be deceiving.
Off subject, but you brought it up. The Colts have not clinched a playoff spot yet, let alone a division title or home field. Two teams in the AFC have better records.
mudnturf
12-09-2003, 09:48 AM
CJ
Sorry. I guess they were talking about the Patriots.
Lee
Even so, it was a good comparison!
Observer
12-09-2003, 10:28 PM
Originally posted by mudnturf
While I believe that certain trainer statistics are important, I don't think it should be the sole, or even the primary, criterion when handicapping a race.
My intention to beginning this thread was more about looking for others who have been repeatedly burned and get frustrated with certain trainers who no matter what you just can't seem to connect with .. though I've seen this thread quickly went in a different direction. I guess I'd just like to know I'm not alone with this.
:rolleyes:
Observer,
I'll give you two, though one is a rider.
Richard Dutrow and Pat Day. There presence almost assures I will pass the race. Not in the big races with Day so much, but the usual every day Kentucky fare. I have zero luck betting on Dutrow, but every time I dismiss his horse, he is a lock to beat me! Day I can't figure...I'm sure its my imagination, but when I bet a horse of his, he rides like an apprentice, but bet against him...lets just say that if I bet Secratariat in the Belmont, he would have nipped me at the wire on Sham.
Observer
12-11-2003, 11:36 PM
Thank you! Now that's the kind of thing I was talking about .. lousy, ain't it! Mark Hennig seems to be a trainer I have difficulty connecting with.
CapperLou
12-12-2003, 12:27 AM
I've got a big problem with Pat Day when he is riding in KY & NY! He has cost me a lot of dough whether its playing against him or on him---cannot figure it out--been happening for several years. I try very hard to never bet on him--it's a losing proposition for me!!!
I do nicely with Mark Hennig with his 2 yr olds in particular.
This is a tough game--no matter how good a horse picker you are, you still need a little lady luck!!!
All the best,
CapperLou
plainolebill
12-12-2003, 01:56 AM
He's not a high profile trainer but Barry Abrams is one trainer I can't ever read. I have no idea WTF he is doing. He runs each of his horses about once a week and all of a sudden one will just pop up and win. They always seem to run about the same speed so maybe he just catches a field where the rest of the horses are having a bad day.
Shacopate
12-12-2003, 02:02 AM
On Klesaris: everywhere.
About 5 years ago, I remember watching a race from Philly (could be wrong about the track, maybe Monmouth), when a horse trained by Klesaris called POOLMAN made a monster turn move and nearly clipped heels behind a wall horses at the top of the stretch, unable to get through. The jock pretty much eased him in and finished 8th. Weeks later, he shows up at Gulfstream Park and up in class.
Won and paid 47.00
Back when the DRF called it stablemail instead of horse watch.
Bubbles
12-12-2003, 04:01 PM
At the 2002 Saratoga meet, I got Kenny McPeek's autograph. Pointed out a horse that was narrowly beaten in an earlier race and says he really likes him. Haven't hit a single McPeek since then. :D
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