Hilary for Pres?

[highnote]

I just noticed that Hilary is the fourth choice on Betfair.com to win the Democratic nomination. You can get 10-1 on her. Gephardt is 9.96-1, so they're virtually tied for 3rd. Dean is the favorate at about 1.75-1. Clark is 6.8-1.

So why is Hilary 10-1 when she has said repeatedly she won't run? Could it be someone knows something we don't?

She just went to Afghanistan. Hmmm. Food for thought.

If you want to bet she won't win the nomination you can lay odds at 11-1. Seems like a good bet to me, except that what if she changes her mind. Or what if the party can't decide upon a candidate and she comes along as a uniter and is nominated at the convention? I'm not sure how that works, but I think it can happen.

[GameTheory]

Lots of people don't believe her when she says she won't run -- therefore there are people that will take that bet. Therefore, someone at Betfair thinks they can stimulate action (& their commission) by providing such an option. Sportsbooks provide outrageous things to bet on all the time -- things that don't have any chance whatsoever of happening. I guess some people are willing to just give away their money...

[sq764]

God help us if she won.. That is all I have to say.

[andicap]

Politics aside, anyone who bets on her is a fool -- She is definitely not running. It's all a hyped-up media story driven by Republicans who would actually LOVE to run against her. (I think she would get killed unless the country fell into another recession -- in which case almost any Dem could win).
Her strategy is to wait until 2008 after Bush's second term (if he wins that is), and hope

a) the country has forgotten a lot of stuff about Bill Clinton
b) she has built up a respectable record in the Senate(regardless of your politics, she is well-respected on both sides of the aisle as a senator).
c) Bush gets re-elected and the country is ready for a big change in 2008.

If she gets re elected in 2006 by a solid margin -- with lots of Republican upstate votes -- she'll have a foundation to run on.

[highnote]

Andicap,
Nice analysis -- fair and balanced:)

Seriously, it's one of the better ones I've read -- IMHO, that is.

Regards,
John

[Dave Schwartz]

Talk about strange bets... who was it that bet like $72k that Michael and Janet Jackson were the same person?

Dave Schwartz

[highnote]

How would you prove otherwise?

My recollection from watching their videos is that Janet's legs are much bigger around than Michael's.

I always thought that Michael Jackson and Jackie Onassis were the same person, although I wouldn't bet $72k on it.

[Larry Hamilton]

Respect? Why?

[highnote]

Gametheory,
It took me awhile, but your point finally made sense to me. So you're saying that perhaps Betfair put up the bet (seeded the market) in order to generate interest and more betting. The more that is bet the more they make in commissions. That makes sense.

Still, 11-1 against her winning the Dem nomination seems like good value.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Talk about strange bets... who was it that bet like $72k that Michael and Janet Jackson were the same person?Dave Schwartz

I have seen them both and they are much different up close.

Janet isn't so weird. Although I haven't seen them since the later 80's. I have seen pictures of them together and at one time they looked very similar. I used to work with a relative of them. Even she admitted MJ was flaky..........

[highnote]

MJ Flaky? That has to be the understatement of the week. :)

[Tom]

Originally posted by swetyejohn
MJ Flaky? That has to be the understatement of the week. :)


He's flaky alright...his nose flaked right off!:eek:

[kenwoodallpromos]

You cannot handicap pres hopefuls like horses- no horse favs were ever Governors!! Hill vs. Jeb in '08.

[Lefty]

What happens to the bet if she doesn't run? They prob. keep the money just like in future bets on horses. If the horse doesn't start; your bet is lost. Good bet for the bookies.

She won't run. Dean has cght the "steam" and will be the nominee. It will be fun watching this guy keep saying things and then retracting or explaining them the next day.
On MEET THE PRESS he said he told a guy(I forget who)that he was sorry for what he said about him but was adamant that he didn't apoligize. Classic "Clintonese"

[Tom]

Reminds me a of a fly fisherman :D

[cj]

In 2007 as my wife and I prepare to depart Belgium to move back to the states, if Hillary is going to be President of this country, myself (and my wife, her words, not mine) will be looking to become citizens of Belgium!

[cato]

It would be a disaster for the democrats if Dean is nominated. He will go down in the great pantheon of worthless and ineffective democratic candiates such as McGovern and Mondale and would probably have a special place in history with the worst presidential campaign in modern history, Dukakis.....

Cato

[cj]

In all honesty, I can't imagine the Dems think they have a prayer this election. Whoever they put up will be a sacrificial lamb awaiting the 2008 election.

[cj]

In the above post, I meant as the Dems await the 2008 election, not the "sacrificial lamb." He'll be tossed aside and forgotten like most candidates who don't win.

[Lefty]

CJ, the nominee is not decided in a smoke filled room anymore. We have primaries. Dems won't put anyone up. The people will decide.

[VetScratch]

I think Hillary can get elected in 2008, will run a very professional campaign, has no more personal credibility than Bill, and will be primarily influenced by polls throughout her term of office.

Too bad! Politically astute feminists will have to vote for Hillary, but will always wish someone like Maggie Thatcher had emerged to break the glass ceiling in the oval office. Hillary's character will always be questioned until she dumps Bill.