usedtolovetvg
10-14-2011, 11:25 PM
I had to email picks to a friend so i figure why not publicly humiliate myself.
Race 1
Great way to start the day. This race is wide open. #7 should get the lead with a whole bunch not far behind. #6 with Calvin Borel could be well-positioned to challenge for the lead. My pick the #1 Missing Sefa has a decent apprentice aboard, drops to a new low claiming price, 2nd race off layoff, has raced very well at Keeneland. The negative is she is nine years old and needs to avoid traffic problems from the inside post. I think #3 will be the favorite and she could easily race well here. The #9 could also go well but I don't play turf horses coming from another track, too many doubts about her.
My Pick: #1 Missing Sefa
Exacta Play
1 With 2,3,6
Race 2
Another very tough race. It doesn't appear many of these have raced the distance of today's race, 7 furlongs. Horses that run well at 6 furlongs rarely run well going an extra furlong. There seems to be a lot of early speed in here. None of the horses in here have raced well at Keeneland. The probably favorite #9 failed twice on the synthetic surface when he raced in Southern California. That leaves us with the #6. Will take lots of action off those last 2 wins. Has raced well at today's distance and raced ok his one time on synthetic at Arlington. My least favorite race (toughest) of the day.
My Pick: #6 Upsell
Exacta Play
6 With 12
Race 3
Nice little race, I see the 3 and the 4 battle for the lead. The 4 takes a short lead but the red hot #1 has the leader in his sights and draws away as the #4 tires. The #2 picks up the pieces for 2nd
My Pick: #1 Rockin Rockstar
Exacta Play
1 With 2,4
Race 4
With 5 horses making their racing debuts, I like to look for horses that have raced at least once. Of the firsters the #6 looks best to me. There is a big drop in class for horses going from Md Sp Wt to Md 30000. Of those 3 the #9 looks most interesting. A nothing effort on the turf at Arlington finishing 3rd last, now shows up at Keeneland for Md 30000 on the synthetic. Big shot here. I'll take a shot on #5 Ease Away with Matthew Straight raced for the same claiming price in her last at Turfway but had the tough outside post. She ran a very good race to be 3rd. The favorites do look a bit better but if they fail this horse could improve enough to win.
My Pick: #5 Ease Away
Exacta Play
5,9 With 2,5,9
Race 5
The #4 won a big race last time at Turfway but is moving way up in class. he could repeat but I never play these kind. The #8, #5 & #7 are all deserving a shot but none looks like a stand out. The #1 has been off for 2 & 1/2 months but every time he has come back from a short break he runs well. He likes the distance and the track. In his last race he was the favorite and the #5 was 10-1. He should have decent odds and worth a shot
My Pick: #1 Quartersawn
$1 Trifecta Play
1 With 5,7,8 With 5,7,8,9
Race 6
Outstanding racing for the 2nd half of the race card. They love betting horses from the big tracks Sar, CD, GP. The #1 is probably the classiest but has big gaps in his races. If ready, he destroys these. The #8 won easily in his only start at this track, top jockey chooses to ride. He will get bet. The #5 has had 2 starts at Keeneland and done very well here in the spring (1st & 2nd). Been off for a while but comes back with blinkers for the first time. The trainer loves to do this. The blinkers should keep this guy closer to the pace. Besides, the horse is grey and will be easy to follow.
My Pick: #5 Duke of Del Rey
Exacta Play
5,8 With 5,8,9
Race 7
Looks like a good group of 2 year-olds. The #3 is a first time starter who is poised for a BIG effort. His daddy is a popular sire. The trainer is having a great year and does very well with young horses. This is a long race but #3 may be best. The #5 may have been pointing toward this race. Did nothing in his only start at Saratoga. Gets the top jockey and trainer makes this move with a great deal of success. Just a note, the jockeys on the #5 and #10 flip flop horses, not sure what to make of that. The #12 looks like he is sitting on a good race. The outside post is tough though. The #8 got bet in his first start. These kind often improve dramatically in their 2nd start. I love the fact they have added blinkers. Maybe he didn't focus on his job in his 1st start. The blinkers should help. Tough, tough race, flip a coin but I'll take my shot with the #8
My Pick: #8 Untethered
Exacta Play
3,8 With 3,4,8,12
Race 8
This was the easiest race for me to handicap. There are a lot of horses that like to run on the lead. That should make for a very fast pace. When that happens, it sets up for horses to come from behind. The probable favorites are the #4 & 8. The #4 off his last big win at Del Mar. But, I hate horses when they ship from California and run on the East Coast for the first time. The #8 off his big Maiden win in Saratoga. He stumbled at the start of his last race so he'll take big bucks. I am hoping those two get caught up in a speed duel. There really are only 2 closers but they may not be good enough. The #6 and #9 should be coming from well back. If the pace is fast enough maybe these guys will roar on by the front runners in the stretch.
My Pick: #9 Larry Zip
Exacta Play
6,9 With 4,6,9
Race 9
A very good Grade 1 Stake race that pits the best 3 year-old turf fillies of the East against the best of of the West. There should be a solid pace provided by the #6, #7, #8. I hate West Coast horses in their first race when they go East but I am all about getting good odds and the way the race sets up. I'll take a shot with the #5. It looks like he'll be decent price and will love the distance. If the race sets up well enough and he can overcome the ship in from California, I like him and I'm pretty sure I'll love the odds. Look for the #1 to bust through late
My Pick: #5 Nereid
Exacta Play
1,5 With 1,5,7
Race 10
By this time you are probably broke and I have proven how little I really know about handicapping but here is the last. It seems likely that the #2 will bust out and get the lead. Second time lasix is often a good angle to bet but I'll hope the #2 fades again. There are 8 first time starters. Of those, the #4 should get bet and I like the #5 a bit too. This is a tough race to end on but I'll look to the #12. He has the tough outside post but I like the one race at a good track, a bit of a break and then back against a bit easier competition. Don't throw away all your profits on this one.
My Pick: #12 Try to Catch Her
Exacta Play If You Want
12 With 4,5,10,11
Race 1
Great way to start the day. This race is wide open. #7 should get the lead with a whole bunch not far behind. #6 with Calvin Borel could be well-positioned to challenge for the lead. My pick the #1 Missing Sefa has a decent apprentice aboard, drops to a new low claiming price, 2nd race off layoff, has raced very well at Keeneland. The negative is she is nine years old and needs to avoid traffic problems from the inside post. I think #3 will be the favorite and she could easily race well here. The #9 could also go well but I don't play turf horses coming from another track, too many doubts about her.
My Pick: #1 Missing Sefa
Exacta Play
1 With 2,3,6
Race 2
Another very tough race. It doesn't appear many of these have raced the distance of today's race, 7 furlongs. Horses that run well at 6 furlongs rarely run well going an extra furlong. There seems to be a lot of early speed in here. None of the horses in here have raced well at Keeneland. The probably favorite #9 failed twice on the synthetic surface when he raced in Southern California. That leaves us with the #6. Will take lots of action off those last 2 wins. Has raced well at today's distance and raced ok his one time on synthetic at Arlington. My least favorite race (toughest) of the day.
My Pick: #6 Upsell
Exacta Play
6 With 12
Race 3
Nice little race, I see the 3 and the 4 battle for the lead. The 4 takes a short lead but the red hot #1 has the leader in his sights and draws away as the #4 tires. The #2 picks up the pieces for 2nd
My Pick: #1 Rockin Rockstar
Exacta Play
1 With 2,4
Race 4
With 5 horses making their racing debuts, I like to look for horses that have raced at least once. Of the firsters the #6 looks best to me. There is a big drop in class for horses going from Md Sp Wt to Md 30000. Of those 3 the #9 looks most interesting. A nothing effort on the turf at Arlington finishing 3rd last, now shows up at Keeneland for Md 30000 on the synthetic. Big shot here. I'll take a shot on #5 Ease Away with Matthew Straight raced for the same claiming price in her last at Turfway but had the tough outside post. She ran a very good race to be 3rd. The favorites do look a bit better but if they fail this horse could improve enough to win.
My Pick: #5 Ease Away
Exacta Play
5,9 With 2,5,9
Race 5
The #4 won a big race last time at Turfway but is moving way up in class. he could repeat but I never play these kind. The #8, #5 & #7 are all deserving a shot but none looks like a stand out. The #1 has been off for 2 & 1/2 months but every time he has come back from a short break he runs well. He likes the distance and the track. In his last race he was the favorite and the #5 was 10-1. He should have decent odds and worth a shot
My Pick: #1 Quartersawn
$1 Trifecta Play
1 With 5,7,8 With 5,7,8,9
Race 6
Outstanding racing for the 2nd half of the race card. They love betting horses from the big tracks Sar, CD, GP. The #1 is probably the classiest but has big gaps in his races. If ready, he destroys these. The #8 won easily in his only start at this track, top jockey chooses to ride. He will get bet. The #5 has had 2 starts at Keeneland and done very well here in the spring (1st & 2nd). Been off for a while but comes back with blinkers for the first time. The trainer loves to do this. The blinkers should keep this guy closer to the pace. Besides, the horse is grey and will be easy to follow.
My Pick: #5 Duke of Del Rey
Exacta Play
5,8 With 5,8,9
Race 7
Looks like a good group of 2 year-olds. The #3 is a first time starter who is poised for a BIG effort. His daddy is a popular sire. The trainer is having a great year and does very well with young horses. This is a long race but #3 may be best. The #5 may have been pointing toward this race. Did nothing in his only start at Saratoga. Gets the top jockey and trainer makes this move with a great deal of success. Just a note, the jockeys on the #5 and #10 flip flop horses, not sure what to make of that. The #12 looks like he is sitting on a good race. The outside post is tough though. The #8 got bet in his first start. These kind often improve dramatically in their 2nd start. I love the fact they have added blinkers. Maybe he didn't focus on his job in his 1st start. The blinkers should help. Tough, tough race, flip a coin but I'll take my shot with the #8
My Pick: #8 Untethered
Exacta Play
3,8 With 3,4,8,12
Race 8
This was the easiest race for me to handicap. There are a lot of horses that like to run on the lead. That should make for a very fast pace. When that happens, it sets up for horses to come from behind. The probable favorites are the #4 & 8. The #4 off his last big win at Del Mar. But, I hate horses when they ship from California and run on the East Coast for the first time. The #8 off his big Maiden win in Saratoga. He stumbled at the start of his last race so he'll take big bucks. I am hoping those two get caught up in a speed duel. There really are only 2 closers but they may not be good enough. The #6 and #9 should be coming from well back. If the pace is fast enough maybe these guys will roar on by the front runners in the stretch.
My Pick: #9 Larry Zip
Exacta Play
6,9 With 4,6,9
Race 9
A very good Grade 1 Stake race that pits the best 3 year-old turf fillies of the East against the best of of the West. There should be a solid pace provided by the #6, #7, #8. I hate West Coast horses in their first race when they go East but I am all about getting good odds and the way the race sets up. I'll take a shot with the #5. It looks like he'll be decent price and will love the distance. If the race sets up well enough and he can overcome the ship in from California, I like him and I'm pretty sure I'll love the odds. Look for the #1 to bust through late
My Pick: #5 Nereid
Exacta Play
1,5 With 1,5,7
Race 10
By this time you are probably broke and I have proven how little I really know about handicapping but here is the last. It seems likely that the #2 will bust out and get the lead. Second time lasix is often a good angle to bet but I'll hope the #2 fades again. There are 8 first time starters. Of those, the #4 should get bet and I like the #5 a bit too. This is a tough race to end on but I'll look to the #12. He has the tough outside post but I like the one race at a good track, a bit of a break and then back against a bit easier competition. Don't throw away all your profits on this one.
My Pick: #12 Try to Catch Her
Exacta Play If You Want
12 With 4,5,10,11