PDA

View Full Version : Oh the pain of having to regress to the mean!!


formula_2002
11-28-2003, 09:31 PM
An adjunct to the basic method has yielded the following results, many of them recently posted in the "SELECTIONS" forum

Talk about luck!!

Friday’s bigger than life results;
6 of 13 picks win for a 133% profit.
Oh the pain of having to regress to the mean!!

THESE PICKS ARE BASED ON 8760 BACK FITTED RACES (PART OF A 165,889 HORSE DATA BASE)
RETURNING 22% WINNERS AT A 2% LOSS. PICKS AR E 100% COMPUTER GENERATED.
FINAL ODDS MUST EXCEED THE MIN. ODDS
UNACCOUNTED SCRATCHES MAY AFFECT PICK SELECTION.

RESULTS SINCE THAT TIME;
78 RACES, 26% WINNERS 23% PROFIT



TRACK DATE RACE # H PG# ML MIN.ODDS A B PI 'E' PI 'E'-'E' WNET DBT WIN N190 N191 NOINFIELD
AQU20031128 1 ROCKIN 120.00 2.50 -1.00 1 0 45 1 13
AQU20031128 2 SEATTLE 2 3.50 3.78 A -1.00 1 0 30 3 8
AQU20031128 4 ONE TOU 9 4.00 2.33 2.90 1 1 34 1 9
AQU20031128 5 COSTLY 7 6.00 4.22 A -1.00 1 0 28 2 10
AQU20031128 6 SINISTE 4 4.50 2.43 3.70 1 1 45 1 9
CDX20031128 10 SILENT 3 3.00 1.94 3.60 1 1 48 1 7
CDX20031128 12 GULCH A 4 4.00 3.64 5.40 1 1 36 1 9
HOL20031128 1 SATAN'S 4 1.00 0.47 0.70 1 1 66 1 4
HOL20031128 3 ALBERT 1 5.00 2.17 A -1.00 1 0 54 1 7
HOL20031128 5 COUSINE 7 6.00 3.00 -1.00 1 0 29 3 11
HOL20031128 6 POINTE 1112.00 2.88 8.00 1 1 27 2 11
HOL20031128 7 SUSIE J 5 5.00 1.93 -1.00 1 0 39 1 6
HOL20031128 8 SHARPST 8 2.50 1.46 E -1.00 1 0 43 1 8
17.30 13.00 6.00

formula_2002
12-01-2003, 07:02 AM
THE REGRESSION IS COMPLETED.
After Sundays racing the results have regressed to the mean.

121 plays 22% winners and 3% loss.



Joe M

formula_2002
12-07-2003, 12:54 PM
actualy it is progressing quite a bit beyond the mean..

as of 12/06/2003

231 RACES, 19% WINNERS 12% LOSS