Who are these strange souls who win at Keeneland?

[JustRalph]

For the life of me, I don't know how anybody wins at Keeneland.

I have been getting my ass kicked over the last few days all over the country. I have only played a few races at Keeneland (Turf mostly) I have lost some tough ones the last few days. Lots of photos and close calls with high odds horses etc. I am used to it. But I have only dabbled in small bets at Keeneland and I can't pick my ass for the life of me on that plastic.

Same ole story........over the last few years. Which is actually the reason I don't attend Keeneland anymore. It just isn't worth it to sit there and watch races without betting. But sitting at home throwing a few bucks is still kind of fun.

The last race of the day was a typical Keeneland race for me. My horses running 3-5th again. Who in hell picked those horses that ran 1-2? I gotta tell you, Equisim liked the 10 for 2nd and it played out that way. I just couldn't play that horse.

Who are you strange people who are winning at Keeneland ? Tip of the hat to you........... anybody here at PA ?

[rrpic6]

Ralph:
Try putting a few bucks on the Presque isle shippers. The ones in good form are hitting the board there...as they did at Turfway the last 2 weeks....at juicy prices!

RR

[Tom]

It certainly isn't me!
I could never win there on dirt, can't win there now on plastic.

[iceknight]

For the life of me, I don't know how anybody wins at Keeneland.

I have been getting my ass kicked over the last few days all over the country. I have only played a few races at Keeneland (Turf mostly) I have lost some tough ones the last few days. Lots of photos and close calls with high odds horses etc. I am used to it. But I have only dabbled in small bets at Keeneland and I can't pick my ass for the life of me on that plastic.

Same ole story........over the last few years. Which is actually the reason I don't attend Keeneland anymore. It just isn't worth it to sit there and watch races without betting. But sitting at home throwing a few bucks is still kind of fun.

The last race of the day was a typical Keeneland race for me. My horses running 3-5th again. Who in hell picked those horses that ran 1-2? I gotta tell you, Equisim liked the 10 for 2nd and it played out that way. I just couldn't play that horse.

Who are you strange people who are winning at Keeneland ? Tip of the hat to you........... anybody here at PA ?


if you look at the Selections thread you will promptly realize that ericg30? is winning, not only winning, but winning a ton almost every race and hitting many tris (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=88112) and supers too. But eric usually wins *after* the race results are posted official :D

[tbwinner]

if you look at the Selections thread you will promptly realize that ericg30? is winning, not only winning, but winning a ton almost every race and hitting many tris (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=88112) and supers too. But eric usually wins *after* the race results are posted official :D

I called Twinspires and asked but they will not let me play wagers after they go official...bummer! Wonder how he does it!?!

[overthehill]

I think keeneland is pretty good. watch everything leparoux rides, watch ramsey owned horses. he wants his trainers to point for this meet. then check the bias and distance factors.
now in the spinster stake today arun looks like one of the few horses in the field who can get 1 1/8 and has an inside post. the other contender who can route that far has the #12 post. so to me it seems like arun is going to win or at worst place. if the #2 misfires the chances are the #12 will win or place, cause i dont see the other contenders stretching out and getting the distance. I think pletchers horses maybe heavily bet here and i just dont see either of them in the exacta.

[Canarsie]

Their chat room right next to their video is decent. There's usually a few guys and gals giving opinions, stats, horses appearance, value, track bias, and so on without any antics. You can just leave it on in a separate tab or window and scroll up and down to see what they said.

Having said that its still one hell of a tough track to play.

Here's the link again if anyone missed it lots of good stuff in here.

http://www.horseplayernow.com/KEEFALL11PREVIEW.pdf

[BillW]

For the life of me, I don't know how anybody wins at Keeneland.

I have been getting my ass kicked over the last few days all over the country. I have only played a few races at Keeneland (Turf mostly) I have lost some tough ones the last few days. Lots of photos and close calls with high odds horses etc. I am used to it. But I have only dabbled in small bets at Keeneland and I can't pick my ass for the life of me on that plastic.

Same ole story........over the last few years. Which is actually the reason I don't attend Keeneland anymore. It just isn't worth it to sit there and watch races without betting. But sitting at home throwing a few bucks is still kind of fun.

The last race of the day was a typical Keeneland race for me. My horses running 3-5th again. Who in hell picked those horses that ran 1-2? I gotta tell you, Equisim liked the 10 for 2nd and it played out that way. I just couldn't play that horse.

Who are you strange people who are winning at Keeneland ? Tip of the hat to you........... anybody here at PA ?

You just need to have a mindset transplant. Come on and hang out at the table for a few days and get reprogrammed. :cool:

[gm10]

I haven't played Keeneland much since Friday but I do like handicapping there. Quality horses, deep fields, and two fair surfaces.


I didn't play the last race yesterday, but the winner's second last race looks like a nice win, enough to put her in with a chance. Her last race was less good at first sight, but they went a pedestrian pace in that race which might not have suited (especially at PID), and it was her first try in allowance company, so 5th from 10 was perhaps a reasonable effort after all. Mind you, I'm not saying I would have bet her, but in hindsight she does look like a big overlay rather than a fluke.

The one thing I tell myself when I'm playing these big fields ... you are going to pick a lot less winners than usual. It doesn't necessarily mean you are doing a bad job just because you've had a bad few days.

[fiveouttasix]

I handicap the poly just like I handicap for an off track...the 1st thing I look for is record on today's surface..the 2nd thing is breeding ...yes for the poly!
Also the turf - poly move....50% of route winners on the the poly last raced on the turf.

[PhantomOnTour]

I love Kee but I have seriously curtailed my play there (for the same reasons listed in Post #1) and pretty much only play their big stakes races and use a few trainer angles here and there. It's the only all weather track I play.

Funny thread

[gm10]

I handicap the poly just like I handicap for an off track...the 1st thing I look for is record on today's surface..the 2nd thing is breeding ...yes for the poly!
Also the turf - poly move....50% of route winners on the the poly last raced on the turf.

Where did you get that from?

[Casino]

Ralph:
Try putting a few bucks on the Presque isle shippers. The ones in good form are hitting the board there...as they did at Turfway the last 2 weeks....at juicy prices!

RR

Bombs away in the 2nd shipper from pid 25/1...

[fiveouttasix]

Where did you get that from?
They mentioned it on TVG yesterday

[Tom]

Where did you get that from?

Actually, it is 170/438 39%, but the ROI is .95, so pay attention.
They account for 32% of the starters.

[Tom]

Looks, so far, that if you threw out any horse in a poly route at KEE who did race over turf or at PID the last out, you would be sitting pretty today.

[Mr Saratoga]

Yes Keeneland is tough, but with the big fields in the premier races you only have to hit one out of four to make a profit for the day. So many big prices.

[menifee]

Play Julien - he was hot before he tumbled over the rail.

[Leparoux]

With the full fields you don't have to hit crazy long shots to make a nice pay day. Hit the late pick four yesterday with 5-2/8-1/2-1/10-1 and it paid well. I'd much rather play Keeneland than most other tracks with several six horse fields and every card.

[Grits]

With the full fields you don't have to hit crazy long shots to make a nice pay day. Hit the late pick four yesterday with 5-2/8-1/2-1/10-1 and it paid well. I'd much rather play Keeneland than most other tracks with several six horse fields and every card.

There is no interest among the handicappers/horseplayers at Pace Advantage for a redboard the day after it has been played. This is true whether one is discussing field size or a track's ability to be playable or not.

If you feel the pick 4, or any bet, a nice play, please share your thoughts and post your plays in the selections folder prior to the the races going off.

Thanks. Good luck throughout the rest of meet.

[Leparoux]

There is no interest among the handicappers/horseplayers at Pace Advantage for a redboard the day after it has been played. This is true whether one is discussing field size or a track's ability to be playable or not.

If you feel the pick 4, or any bet, a nice play, please share your thoughts and post your plays in the selections folder prior to the the races going off.

Thanks. Good luck throughout the rest of meet.
I appreciate the concern but I'll post as I please. I'll be the first to admit I'm an extremely amateur horse player. The post was 100% relevant to the thread. Thanks cya.

[Grits]

I appreciate the concern but I'll post as I please. I'll be the first to admit I'm an extremely amateur horse player. The post was 100% relevant to the thread. Thanks cya.

You'll learn quickly.

Cya.

[Leparoux]

You'll learn quickly.

Cya.
I've posted 56 times in a year a half, I'm fine right where I am :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

While I much preferred their old dirt, their Poly is much more playable than Arlingtons IMO.

I think the key to Kee is avoid all those races where the majority of runners are first and 2nd time starters. Stick to the allowances and stakes.

[Light]

I think you have to be a bit naive or have an angle that gives you an edge to play Keenland. Too big a fields with too much competition means your chances for upsets are much greater. And you would be foolish to take a 2-1 or 3-1 shot there in a competitive 12 horse field when you can get 2-1 or 3-1 in a 6 horse field at another track with a less competitive field.

I've stopped playing Keenland because of this. But I have a friend who basically doesn't play much, but comes out mainly at the Keenland meets. It seems every so often he hits a monster pk4 there. His last one a year ago was for $12k for a 50 cent ticket and the ticket was small,under $20. So I recently asked him what his secret was and this is what he told me.

He says he uses the old DRF sr+tv and plays the highest figure(s). I thought everyone gave that up. But he uses it steadfastly so the system eventually has a good day. And this is the reason his pk4's pay so good, because everyone has abandoned that system for more modern handicapping methods.I still won't use that method (I think it sucks) and don't have the patience for it.But it works for him occasionally at Keenland and he sticks to it and is way ahead of most Keenland players.

My theory is that it's not so much that the system is any good. Its that he stays religiously with the system. I think that's probably the secret to using any system as stupid as the system may be. In his case,he also has not squandered his bankroll the rest of the year (mainly waits for Keenland) so he can afford to approach it dogmatically.

[castaway01]

It's a challenging track. I have always done pretty well with their turf racing, but never found much value on the old dirt and haven't been able to figure out the polytrack. I enjoy the turf racing and the big fields because you find value but really have to pick my spots to have a chance. It's not an easy place to win.

[Capper Al]

Kee did me in. I made matters worse and got caught with the gambler's ruin. Lost the discipline totally. Replaying my wagers, I would have only lost $10.00 had I stuck to the plan. But I would have still lost. And when I review the winning horses after the race, I still can't get most of them. Somehow I know I'll be back. It makes me question why I come back to Kee.

[David-LV]

For the life of me, I don't know how anybody wins at Keeneland.

I have been getting my ass kicked over the last few days all over the country. I have only played a few races at Keeneland (Turf mostly) I have lost some tough ones the last few days. Lots of photos and close calls with high odds horses etc. I am used to it. But I have only dabbled in small bets at Keeneland and I can't pick my ass for the life of me on that plastic.

Same ole story........over the last few years. Which is actually the reason I don't attend Keeneland anymore. It just isn't worth it to sit there and watch races without betting. But sitting at home throwing a few bucks is still kind of fun.

The last race of the day was a typical Keeneland race for me. My horses running 3-5th again. Who in hell picked those horses that ran 1-2? I gotta tell you, Equisim liked the 10 for 2nd and it played out that way. I just couldn't play that horse.

Who are you strange people who are winning at Keeneland ? Tip of the hat to you........... anybody here at PA ?

Playing Keeneland reminds me of a song that Perry Como made famous: IT'S IMPOSSIBLE.

_________
David-LV

[Tom]

Looking at the db for KEE, I think they should rename it McPeekland!

[crestridge]

When I look at the contenders, there's usually four nice looking creatures that can easily win. Which means, probably the best chance of winning, maybe, would demand good enough odds on each creature to provide a dutching opportunity? Maybe..

[Rapid Grey]

Keeneland Clocker often has some good insight.

I try and focus on the turf races and if the rail is up or down. If it is down sometimes the outside runners fair better, up and inside posts and speed is more advantageous.

[uncbossfan]

I live in northern KY and look forward to Keeneland more than any other track. My normal betting pattern usually looks something like this on a normal race at the following local tracks.

RD - $4 if anything at all
TP - $10
CD - $10 - $15
KEE - $20 - $60

I love Keenelands full fields and jockey colony. One of my favorite angles is to play the up and coming jocks from TP as there have been a few that have really exploded over the past decade... Leparoux and Bejarano are the 2 biggest and now are known by everyone, but recently Victor Lebron, Miguel Mena, and Leandro Goncalves have all brought home some very nice prices over the past few meets. Find these guys on the undercard where only 2 or 3 of the major jocks have a mount and they get over bet leaving an inflated price for a horse one of these up and comers is on.

Not a big fan of horses stretching out stretching out at KEE.

Never leave Maker off your ticket in a stakes race!

Lone speed is dangerous in any race, but I really love that angle at KEE as most believe speed doesn't hold on polytrack and will dismiss the horse, again inflating it's odds.

And I think its a huge horse for course track. Disregard current form, if a horse likes it there, toss at your own risk...

I'll be plying this fri and sat - good luck everyone!

[lamboguy]

in the spirit of things i will give you a horse that should be in on APRIL 20th there. i love HAMMER'S TERROR. i liked CURRENCY TRADER in saratoga, and i think that HAMMER'S TERROR is going to be a major 3 year old.

[GatetoWire]

I find the polytrack at Keeneland to be too hard to figure out. Way too many races with head scratching results.
I have tried and tired but I am just not good at Keeneland Poly.

Last weekend I just stuck to only playing the stakes races on both surfaces and the higher level turf races only.

With the amount of races across the country it makes little sense to chase races on the Poly at Keeneland. It's a bankroll killer.

[WeirdWilly]

I called Twinspires and asked but they will not let me play wagers after they go official...bummer! Wonder how he does it!?!

It's time for "Occupy Twin Spires" - to demand our right to place bets after the completion of the races.

[ten2oneormore]

For the life of me, I don't know how anybody wins at Keeneland.

I have been getting my ass kicked over the last few days all over the country. I have only played a few races at Keeneland (Turf mostly) I have lost some tough ones the last few days. Lots of photos and close calls with high odds horses etc. I am used to it. But I have only dabbled in small bets at Keeneland and I can't pick my ass for the life of me on that plastic.

Same ole story........over the last few years. Which is actually the reason I don't attend Keeneland anymore. It just isn't worth it to sit there and watch races without betting. But sitting at home throwing a few bucks is still kind of fun.

The last race of the day was a typical Keeneland race for me. My horses running 3-5th again. Who in hell picked those horses that ran 1-2? I gotta tell you, Equisim liked the 10 for 2nd and it played out that way. I just couldn't play that horse.

Who are you strange people who are winning at Keeneland ? Tip of the hat to you........... anybody here at PA ?


Using CJ's figures...If you are talking about Nikki's Sandcastle she had a great pattern with her last being the best turf figure in the field by quite a large margin with the exception of Rescue Squad who was coming off a long layoff.

[lamboguy]

in the spirit of things i will give you a horse that should be in on APRIL 20th there. i love HAMMER'S TERROR. i liked CURRENCY TRADER in saratoga, and i think that HAMMER'S TERROR is going to be a major 3 year old.
i meant OCTOBER 20

[Enigma]

LARGE POOLS...SHOW IS THE WAY TO GO !!!!