Using Trainer Stats and When do you Stop?

[NormanTD]

For you guys that track the trainers, how do you know when to stop betting on him?

Let's say trainer Ima Gudwidhorses has 134 starts and your database shows that when his horse is the post time favorite (and this has happened 45 times out of the 134 starts), he wins 45% of the races and has a positive roi of say 45%. So you bet on him next time he has a horse that fits your particular play.

How long do you keep betting on him and this play?

[SAL]

I would look at his current meet/year stats and make up my mind then. If the trainer has a 45% record and he's 1 for 12 at the current meet I wouldn't feel all that confident.

I normally would use a stat like that to throw out trainers. If a trainer's win % is lower than the usual standard of 33%, that means he's underacheiving. D Wayne Lukas is a trainer I refuse to bet with ML favorites, and he hasn't burned me to often.

[sq764]

I would have to question playing a horse based on his trainer only..

[pmd62ndst]

Based on my research, believe it or not, the only stat that's relative is how many entries trainers have under their belt. I eliminate horses who's trainers have very few starts for the year or the meet.

I've also found out that trainers with a high win percentage tend to have bad ROIs.

As an example, if there are three condenders in a race of which I consider to be "equal", where Horse A has a trainer with a handful of entries YTD, Horse B has been trained by "super trainer", and Horse C has been trained by "mediocre trainer", I will bet on the C horse because he will have the best value.

PMD