Speed Handicapping

[misscashalot]

Do speed cappers really have an edge?

[Overlay]

In my opinion, yes, as long as they don't handicap based solely on speed, but take other fundamental factors into consideration in determining how a horse is likely to run today (that is whether it will be able to run to its full speed potential in light of its overall condition; the speed potential and condition of its competitors; and the conditions of the race), and whether (based on all those factors) the horse will be worth a wager at its odds (which, to me, is really what having an "edge" boils down to, and which means looking at the relative chances of each horse in the field, rather than focusing solely on isolating the one horse that is most likely to win).

[cj]

Sure they have an edge over those that don't use them at all. It isn't enough to beat the game though by any stretch.

[fmolf]

still the best handicapping method to date for me ..and i am sure many here cut their teeth reading Ainslies works.He called his method "comprehensive handicapping"(taking into account all the different factors)Pace,speed,class,current form,trainer intent,and jockey..throw in distance and surface and you have a total package..Mitchell outlined a similar approach in "Common Sense Handicapping"..Some factors carry more weight in certain races and/or conditions.

[raybo]

I assume you mean, speed figures. I don't know if "speed figure" players have an edge. I don't use them in my analysis, rather: form, pace (fractional velocities), running style.

[Robert Goren]

The short answer is not anymore.

[misscashalot]

The short answer is not anymore.

If not speed figures, then what's in vogue now to take its place.

[Robert Goren]

If not speed figures, then what's in vogue now to take its place.The problem is that speed figures are in vogue.

[DeltaLover]

Speed Figures can certainly pick the most frequent winner but since they are overused by the betting crowd they loose their betting value and despite the fact they are useful as handicapping tools they need to be compensated by more advanced approaches in order to create a successful betting model.

In our days that so much emphasis is put on them with so many SF providers in business it makes it impossible to create a figure calculation model that will be able to beat them...

This is the reason that I recently stopped creating my custom figures, since by using the Bris provided ones I can do as well as I was doing before, eliminating the laborious efforts of gathering data for every track running, inserting in the data base and processing them.

Gone are the 70's when Beyer, Ragozin, Brown etc were constantly beating the pools just by having access to their figures...

[Overlay]

If not speed figures, then what's in vogue now to take its place.
I don't know about being currently in vogue (or even whether -- as some on the board have said -- it will ever be in vogue among the majority of handicappers), but wagering value (especially when based on multiple factors, and taking the full field into consideration) will never become outmoded, unlike every individual factor or combination of factors that is used solely to "pick winners", with no attention paid to odds.

However profitable such narrowly-focused methods/angles may be initially, and although they may very well retain their effectiveness over time with respect to being an indicator of a horse's winning chances, they will eventually become overbet into unprofitability as stand-alone selection tools, requiring handicappers to continually "re-invent the wheel".

[PhantomOnTour]

If not speed figures, then what's in vogue now to take its place.
Everyone who views a set of past performances has access to "professional" speed figs, they also get some basic trainer angle info with %, and some jock proficiency stats, pedigree and sales info, even a wee trip note or two...pretty informative huh?

All of that is en vogue I would say...so what good info isn't in a normal set of pp's that 95% of your competition is using?

Detailed trip notes
Owner/trainer stats
Deeper trainer stats (ie-2nd start at the meet, the GP to Bel move, etc...)
Workout notes or reports
Track bias info
Database nuggets (no idea exactly what to call it because I don't do it, but I also don't doubt it's usefulness)

Become proficient at one or more of the above 'disciplines' and you are using good info that few of your competitors are using.

[aaron]

Everyone who views a set of past performances has access to "professional" speed figs, they also get some basic trainer angle info with %, and some jock proficiency stats, pedigree and sales info, even a wee trip note or two...pretty informative huh?

All of that is en vogue I would say...so what good info isn't in a normal set of pp's that 95% of your competition is using?

Detailed trip notes
Owner/trainer stats
Deeper trainer stats (ie-2nd start at the meet, the GP to Bel move, etc...)
Workout notes or reports
Track bias info
Database nuggets (no idea exactly what to call it because I don't do it, but I also don't doubt it's usefulness)

Become proficient at one or more of the above 'disciplines' and you are using good info that few of your competitors are using.
All of the above plus good speed numbers are important,but in my opinion the most important aspect is a "feel" a player develops when playing this game. Sometimes you know you've made the right bet,but you also know that you probably are going to lose that bet. You have to control your emotions and be very aware when everything is either going your way or going against you. In my opinion information can be gotten,but a feel for the game is a much more elusive quality.

[PhantomOnTour]

All of the above plus good speed numbers are important,but in my opinion the most important aspect is a "feel" a player develops when playing this game. Sometimes you know you've made the right bet,but you also know that you probably are going to lose that bet. You have to control your emotions and be very aware when everything is either going your way or going against you. In my opinion information can be gotten,but a feel for the game is a much more elusive quality.
Aye....experience can't be bought.
I love the deja vu feeling I get sometimes when looking at a race. Can't put my finger on the exact race or instance that I'm remembering, but I know it to be so and I bet accordingly.

We've all said to ourselves, "I've seen this move or set up before..."
Go with that thought

[pondman]

Database nuggets (no idea exactly what to call it because I don't do it, but I also don't doubt it's usefulness)


It's having the data or knowledge that the crowd doesn't, which can give you a big edge.

Speed? I want to know the conditon. I want to know when and where. I don't think HOW is important. My last 4 cannon bet was a horse Talamjo had fallen from at the gate. I've also have bet enough horses with 0 as their beyers rating.

[classhandicapper]

Do speed cappers really have an edge?

Everyone has access to high level speed figures so IMO there's no edge in playing them anymore. However, they are sometimes essential to evaluating the quality of individual horses and fields. So you want them in your arsenal.

I think a better question is do "anti speed" handicappers have an edge?

By that I mean can we gain value by identifying situations where some speed figures aren't accurately reflecting the ability of the horses and most speed handicappers are misunderstanding a race and making poor bets based on bad numbers.

The answer to that is definitely yes.

1. IMO almost all the well know top figure makers (except CJ) have a very limited understanding of the role of pace on final time and/or don't have access to pace figures to begin with. So when they make their figures they sometimes misinterpret results and project/assign inaccurate final time figures to horses via inaccurate track variants. At other times their users under/over estimate performances because they don't understand pace or have pace figures in their own analysis.

2. There are loads of subtle trip, race development, and field quality issues that can throw of figure users and figure makers.

3. Track Bias is an endless source of good plays because they screw up figure makers and figure users in much the same way as items 1 and 2 and because it's always very difficult to analyze and package biases for the masses.

I'm sure there are other techniques also.

To sum it up, figures matter, but IMO the profits are available when you know other figure makers and users are wrong because of issues with their methodology or incomplete information.

[Tom]

Everyone has access to high level speed figures so IMO there's no edge in playing them anymore.

Just having access is not enough.
Most do not buy them to begin with, and many more have no clue how to use them if they do, as evidenced by many posts here over the years. Foreign shippers with CJs conversion are like found money sometimes. Like yesterday.

So yes, there is an edge in playing them.

[classhandicapper]

Just having access is not enough.
Most do not buy them to begin with, and many more have no clue how to use them if they do, as evidenced by many posts here over the years. Foreign shippers with CJs conversion are like found money sometimes. Like yesterday.

So yes, there is an edge in playing them.

No doubt there is some skill involved is using them.

[pandy]

If I was stranded on a desert island and had my choice with having pps with speed figures and no pace figs or pps with pace figs and no speed figs I would take the pace figs. My win percentage would be lower but my ROI much higher.

[dansan]

you could just give me points of call and comments and you can keep the speed figs I do just fine without them

[pandy]

you could just give me points of call and comments and you can keep the speed figs I do just fine without them

If you include the fractions, time and point of all, I agree. The fractions and points of all are important.

[dansan]

only races I use fraction times is on grass

[pandy]

I need fractions because each track has stress points (very fast early fraction), especially for the first two calls, and any horse that can stay within a few lengths of the stress point is a contender at that class level regardless of where it finishes.