Union Rags

[KirisClown]

Pretty impressive performance today..


PGqy9ktcNAk

[RaceBookJoe]

Union Rags looked really good. Checked in the backstretch, behind a few horses turning into stretch, ducked in then came out at still won by 5...that was nice.

[toussaud]

it was nice but i still like creative cause more. though i will tip the hat and say he is better than i thought.

[nijinski]

He is a very talented two year old. Just wish they would skip the BC . Would love to see a Dixie Union colt do well in the Derby , DU suffered an awful neurological disease and was Euthanied in 2010 .
Dam's side has nice stamina . Tempo is the daughter of Terpsichorist .

[mannyberrios]

What a nice two year old

[the little guy]

He is a very talented two year old. Just wish they would skip the BC . Would love to see a Dixie Union colt do well in the Derby , DU suffered an awful neurological disease and was Euthanied in 2010 .
Dam's side has nice stamina . Tempo is the daughter of Terpsichorist .

Why should he skip the BC? Four races as a 2YO is too stressful?

[cj]

Why should he skip the BC? Four races as a 2YO is too stressful?

I've never understood the philosophy many have about skipping races. If the fragility of horses proves one thing it is that you better run them when they are hot.

[the little guy]

I've never understood the philosophy many have about skipping races. If the fragility of horses proves one thing it is that you better run them when they are hot.

It's an indefensible philosophy.

[nijinski]

Why should he skip the BC? Four races as a 2YO is too stressful?
It's a whole other subject TLG. It's bad enough we haven't gotten to see the
a TC winner in so long , but Street Sense has been the only horse to win the BC Juvenile and the Derby. For me that says enough.
Just not big on the Juvey .

[Jasonm921]

Nijinsky,
There are other factors involved...none of which have anything to do with horses skipping races when they are perfectly healthy.

BTW...you wouldnt want to see this face in November? http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/6225355996/in/photostream

[nijinski]

Nijinsky,
There are other factors involved...none of which have anything to do with horses skipping races when they are perfectly healthy.

BTW...you wouldnt want to see this face in November? http://www.flickr.com/photos/easygoer/6225355996/in/photostream
Absolutely love your photos Jason!
Have a feeling I will be seeing that face . The BC is just that huge , purse and all.

[classhandicapper]

The time wasn't particularly fast, but the track slowed down from early in the card. So it's always possible it was a hair slower for the Champagne than the Frizette also.

Given the way he finished after being bottled up for awhile I'd have to say he's capable of better anyway. I didn't see how he ran after the wire, but someone whose opinion I respect said he galloped out like there was more in the tank. I'd like to know what his lat 1/8th was compared to the last 1/4.

All in all there's a lot to like.

This is a horse that in 3 starts has demonstrated that he can rate and relax, run a quarter in 21 and change if need be, and overcome some adversity. That's a pretty deadly combination. If he steps forward a little more in the Juvenile we are talking about a very serious and very versatile racehorse.

[theguarantee]

^Yeah, yet to see a chink in his armor. All depends on health and if he can handle stretching out to me.

[Jasonm921]

I'm just grateful that we have a buzz horse.

[Spalding No!]

It's a whole other subject TLG. It's bad enough we haven't gotten to see the
a TC winner in so long , but Street Sense has been the only horse to win the BC Juvenile and the Derby. For me that says enough.
Just not big on the Juvey .

There's been about a million Classic winners to come out of the BC Juvenile. Off the top of my head: Tank's Prospect, Spend A Buck, Alysheba, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid, Pine Bluff, Editor's Note, Timber Country, Easy Goer, Bet Twice, Go And Go, Tabasco Cat, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Mine That Bird, Afleet Alex, Point Given.

[Tom]

Better scratch lower into your head - all those horses did NOT win the Classic.

[OTM Al]

I still like Alpha and will like him more with a new rider....

[LottaKash]

I never scoped that race out, but just from watching that video of Union Rags, I saw much that I liked about him...I really key my focus on 2yo's that are able to respond to every little thing that the pilot asks of him....What I saw was a very alert and "handy" type of horse....He seemed so willing to race on so late in the race...I just love to see a baby finish with lotsa gusto and attitude....I suspect that this one bears much watching, as there is no telling how high and far he may go....We will see...

best,

[Lasix67]

Run them so we can enjoy them is my take.

[keithw84]

Better scratch lower into your head - all those horses did NOT win the Classic.

I think he meant they all won a classic (one of the TC races), not the classic (BCC)

[Spalding No!]

Better scratch lower into your head - all those horses did NOT win the Classic.

Yawn. It's more than acceptable in the world of horse racing to refer to each individual U.S. Triple Crown race as a "Classic". I'm sure most were able to cope with that tricky curveball. Sorry if you were confused.

To be fair, at least you got past the "about a million" hyperbole without feeling the need to comment.

[menifee]

I actually thought the filly was more impressive. She ran a faster time and got a better beyer.

My Miss Aurelia is the real deal.

[OTM Al]

I actually thought the filly was more impressive. She ran a faster time and got a better beyer.

My Miss Aurelia is the real deal.

That is very normal at this time a year. It will change in a couple months.

[nijinski]

There's been about a million Classic winners to come out of the BC Juvenile. Off the top of my head: Tank's Prospect, Spend A Buck, Alysheba, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid, Pine Bluff, Editor's Note, Timber Country, Easy Goer, Bet Twice, Go And Go, Tabasco Cat, Street Sense, Lookin At Lucky, Mine That Bird, Afleet Alex, Point Given.
All these years later only one has won the Derby , Street Sense.
Unfortunately we never got a chance to see Mo due ho his unfortunate illness. But the percentages on winning both have been poor.

[cj]

All these years later only one has won the Derby , Street Sense.
Unfortunately we never got a chance to see Mo due ho his unfortunate illness. But the percentages on winning both have been poor.

What two year old race has produced consistent Derby winners over that time?

[Spalding No!]

What two year old race has produced consistent Derby winners over that time?

Sure enough, only one horse has won both the Champagne and the Derby since 1984 (Sea Hero). Guess Union Rags should have skipped that race, too.

[Spalding No!]

All these years later only one has won the Derby , Street Sense.
Unfortunately we never got a chance to see Mo due ho his unfortunate illness. But the percentages on winning both have been poor.

Of course, there is no guarantee that Union Rags will even win the BC Juvenile.

Creative Cause has at least an outside chance.

[nijinski]

What two year old race has produced consistent Derby winners over that time?
CJ i'll have to look that up but basically IMHO it's not just the breeding that's
making it so hard to develop a TC winner . I think it also has something to do with the pressure of winning at any cost at two a championioshio race like this that didn't exist prior to the first win by Chiefs Crown in 84.

[cj]

CJ i'll have to look that up but basically IMHO it's not just the breeding that's
making it so hard to develop a TC winner . I think it also has something to do with the pressure of winning at any cost at two a championioshio race like this that didn't exist prior to the first win by Chiefs Crown in 84.

What is making it so hard is that horses are much more fragile these days. However, just skipping races and giving in form horses time off to fit a human's schedule doesn't really work, either. It has been tried many times and it invariably seems to fail most times.

[the little guy]

CJ i'll have to look that up but basically IMHO it's not just the breeding that's
making it so hard to develop a TC winner . I think it also has something to do with the pressure of winning at any cost at two a championioshio race like this that didn't exist prior to the first win by Chiefs Crown in 84.

Yeah, horses need to be coddled as 2YOs like our last Triple Crown winner Affirmed.

[OntheRail]

To me watching him run I see shades of Curlin and a glimmer of Afleet Alex...

[nijinski]

Yeah, horses need to be coddled as 2YOs like our last Triple Crown winner Affirmed.
I agree that Affirmed was not coddled . He was known for his durability and
great conformation . We can only wish to see more like him .

[Robert Fischer]

This horse is of a certain type, the juvenile will not change his probability of being a champion 3yo.

[toussaud]

I agree that Affirmed was not coddled . He was known for his durability and
great conformation . We can only wish to see more like him .
It's funny, so you think last year basically won 4 group 1 races in a 1 month time span, he won 2 of those in a span of 5 days.

So you think is probably the least cuddled, or at least was, big time horse in the world.

So O'Brien comes out and says they are thinking about running him this Saturday and the breeders cup classic, and everyone is like "wow that's too much", when last year this time 3 weeks was an extended layoff.

[classhandicapper]

That is very normal at this time a year. It will change in a couple months.

I agree.

2YO fillies tend to be a little ahead of the colts in development and IMO it even carries forward to some extent to the spring Classics. That's why a number of fillies have done well in the Triple Crown preps and Triple Crown races themselves. Eventually the colts catch up and the gap widens.

[cj]

Eventually the colts catch up and the gap widens.

This hasn't been true for the last four or five years, right?

[classhandicapper]

This hasn't been true for the last four or five years, right?

I guess to some extent we've had some weak male crops. But usually by now, there are quite a few horses like Stay Thirsty that make a nice jump from 2 to 3.

I also felt fairly sure that Rachel would not develop from 3 to 4 (though there were other issues going on there).

[cj]

I guess to some extent we've had some weak male crops. But usually by now, there are quite a few horses like Stay Thirsty that make a nice jump from 2 to 3.

I also felt fairly sure that Rachel would not develop from 3 to 4 (though there were other issues going on there).

I actually think part of it is that horses just don't go as fast early as they used to because they aren't bred to go as far. The slower paces as horses mature keep the females competitive.

[classhandicapper]

I actually think part of it is that horses just don't go as fast early as they used to because they aren't bred to go as far. The slower paces as horses mature keep the females competitive.

You have more data on the average paces over time than I do. Interesting.

I'm just looking at Final Time PAR figures and using my experience observing the best 2YO figures for a very long time. It's not that unusual for the best 2YO fillies to be as fast or even faster than the best 2YO colts. (part of it may also be that the distances are shorter at 2 and there seems to be less a gap between the sexes sprinting). So when they start off the year, a great precocious filly can still be ahead of average colts.

[rastajenk]

It's not that unusual for the best 2YO fillies to be as fast or even faster than the best 2YO colts.I wouldn't agree with that. I've got no stats or databases to back me up, but it sure seems to me that, come Breeders Cup time, the best colts are nudging up against 100 BSR, and the best fillies are 10 points back. Maybe every 10 years or so a really sharp filly comes along, but that hardly confirms your contention that it's "not unusual."

[nijinski]

It's funny, so you think last year basically won 4 group 1 races in a 1 month time span, he won 2 of those in a span of 5 days.

So you think is probably the least cuddled, or at least was, big time horse in the world.

So O'Brien comes out and says they are thinking about running him this Saturday and the breeders cup classic, and everyone is like "wow that's too much", when last year this time 3 weeks was an extended layoff.

No doubt the SYT has the heart of a champion , unfortunately his vulnerabilities have been exposed. Heavily favored and lost the Melbourne Cup and this year the Arc. But Coolmore will relentlessly try
and try again with him for another big dance in the world arena.
They will as he is destined to be one of their shuttle stallions.

[toussaud]

that dixie union is going to show up sooner rather than later.

[toussaud]

No doubt the SYT has the heart of a champion , unfortunately his vulnerabilities have been exposed. Heavily favored and lost the Melbourne Cup and this year the Arc. But Coolmore will relentlessly try
and try again with him for another big dance in the world arena.
They will as he is destined to be one of their shuttle stallions.
he lost the Melbourne because he doesn't want to run 2 miles. that's too far for him. he ran his ass off that race just hit a brick wall in the stretch.

10F is right in his wheelhouse.

[nijinski]

he lost the Melbourne because he doesn't want to run 2 miles. that's too far for him. he ran his ass off that race just hit a brick wall in the stretch.

10F is right in his wheelhouse.

I agree that !0f seems to fit him well .But he also needs Danedream to stay home

[classhandicapper]

I wouldn't agree with that. I've got no stats or databases to back me up, but it sure seems to me that, come Breeders Cup time, the best colts are nudging up against 100 BSR, and the best fillies are 10 points back. Maybe every 10 years or so a really sharp filly comes along, but that hardly confirms your contention that it's "not unusual."

Fully mature colts are usually somewhere between 5-10 points better than fillies depending on the class, distance, and surface (less on turf and in sprints, more for dirt routes).

It's not that unusual to see a top 2YO filly run a Beyer figure in the upper 90s in one of the major stakes. In fact, it's pretty much normal. Some even hit 100 at the shorter distances. When Uncle Mo ran 108, it was considered a totally freakish performance (and it was) because a low 100 is usually the top for the colts.

The PAR for the Breeder's Cup Juvenile is 99.60

The PAR for the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies is 94.52

That's lower than the typical range between colts and fillies going long on dirt.

[Wiley]

that dixie union is going to show up sooner rather than later.
Looks like he is bred pretty close to Grasshopper who barely lost the Travers. I don't necessarliy think he won't be able to get a Classic distance based on his Dixie Union breeding, DU won the Haskell in a very gutsy performance.
Saw an interview with Matz that this guy is huge, 16.2 hands, that's Point Given like at 2, and he sounded like the colt will get better the longer they go. A lot to like about him. With that being said the Juvenile will be his first two turn route so if he is vulnerable it might be then, did not stop Mo last year though.

[toussaud]

i am of the school from a pedigree standpoint, that a horse that is not bred in my mind to go long, just has to prove me wrong. i don't care how impressive they look or how they might look when they stretch out based off a elongated sprint. been burned too many times by horses that look the part but get hit smack dab in the face once they hit the stretch in a high class 2 turn route race.

he may very well do so, but a son of dixie union just has to prove me wrong. Justwhistledixie though she did win the bonnie miss, lol gone astray runs a hard closing 3rd in every race he runs in over 8F,remember how great hot dixie chick looked and everyone talked about how she was going to be the oaks favorite

plus i don't think a hell of alot about the horses he beat.

[Spalding No!]

i am of the school from a pedigree standpoint, that a horse that is not bred in my mind to go long, just has to prove me wrong. i don't care how impressive they look or how they might look when they stretch out based off a elongated sprint. been burned too many times by horses that look the part but get hit smack dab in the face once they hit the stretch in a high class 2 turn route race.

he may very well do so, but a son of dixie union just has to prove me wrong. Justwhistledixie though she did win the bonnie miss, lol gone astray runs a hard closing 3rd in every race he runs in over 8F,remember how great hot dixie chick looked and everyone talked about how she was going to be the oaks favorite

plus i don't think a hell of alot about the horses he beat.

His female family is inundated with stakes winners over a route of ground.

What school of pedigree ignores half the lineage?

[nijinski]

His female family is inundated with stakes winners over a route of ground.

What school of pedigree ignores half the lineage?

I like the stamina on the female side , there's turf as well.

[toussaud]

Not going to get in a pissing contest, but i just don't see it. you go back far enough and you can find whatever you wish to find in any pedigree. even his siblings are sprinters / 1 turn horses.

I have always been of the mindset that a 2YO with any questions in the least bit in his pedigree, just have to beat me, and more times than not, they can't. everyone is always very quick to jump on the first "super 2YO" as a legit derby horse and rarely does it work out like that.

Ironically enough, and don't quote me on this but I am pretty sure the mig said the exact same thing I am saying, something of the akin to "Dixie Unions always act like they want more distance, but when they get it, they seem to not relish it" on I think it was First call Saturday morning. I don't think my stance is that far out there. He just has to beat me, and he very well may but i don't see the value here and as stated, even if he does get 2 turns, I just think creative cause is a better horse regardless.

[Valuist]

I'm sure some will strongly disagree but he won as a decided underlay in the Champagne. Granted he deserved the win but betting a horse down below 2-1 due to his performance on a sloppy track in his last race is flawed reasoning, IMO.

[the little guy]

I'm sure some will strongly disagree but he won as a decided underlay in the Champagne. Granted he deserved the win but betting a horse down below 2-1 due to his performance on a sloppy track in his last race is flawed reasoning, IMO.

Who were the great alternatives that should have made him a bigger price?

[PhantomOnTour]

I'm sure some will strongly disagree but he won as a decided underlay in the Champagne. Granted he deserved the win but betting a horse down below 2-1 due to his performance on a sloppy track in his last race is flawed reasoning, IMO.
The best thing about Rags' performance was that he was the only off the pace winner on the dirt Saturday at Belmont. The other 3 races were wire jobs and he was about 3.75 lengths back after a 1/2m...that and the fact that he did it professionally and with ease.
Problem is that he didn't run all that fast (think he got a 92 BSF and a 101 by my numbers, which is about 3 lengths below par) and My Miss Aurelia bested his time a lil earlier in the Frizette. The Champagne and Frizette were run in almost identical splits, but the girls came home faster. At least the winning girl did.
Haven't looked closely at the Cali babies so I can't say if some of them can beat him or not...have to get those advance BrCup pp's !!

When are they coming out, by the way?
DRF usually gets them out pretty early....maybe in the next week??

[Valuist]

Who were the great alternatives that should have made him a bigger price?

I thought Right to Vote was totally overlooked. He shouldn't have been 25-1. No doubt the best horse won, but I don't regret trying to beat Union Rags. When a similar situation arises in the future and a lightly raced horse is 3-2 off a giant fig earned in the slop and is back on a dry track, I will try to beat them, too.

[gm10]

Paddy Power got him at 7/4 for the Juvenile. At first I thought it was a great price, but after giving it a bit more thought, I'm not so sure now. For one, I want to see what the California crew is like. Secondly, his late numbers @ BEL were reasonably good, but not earth shattering, so he might be vulnerable. He is certainly not towering over the rest of the crop like Uncle Mo was this time last year.

[the little guy]

I thought Right to Vote was totally overlooked. He shouldn't have been 25-1. No doubt the best horse won, but I don't regret trying to beat Union Rags. When a similar situation arises in the future and a lightly raced horse is 3-2 off a giant fig earned in the slop and is back on a dry track, I will try to beat them, too.


I disagree with none of this in the abstract, and said on the MSG show that Right to Vote, like him or not, was way too high a price, but in this particular case I felt Union Rags was around the right price at 6:5. I guess I liked his slower fig maiden win on a dry track more than you....but that's just personal opinion.

However, over time, your opinion is probably the winning one in the general sense.

[lamboguy]

The best thing about Rags' performance was that he was the only off the pace winner on the dirt Saturday at Belmont. The other 3 races were wire jobs and he was about 3.75 lengths back after a 1/2m...that and the fact that he did it professionally and with ease.
Problem is that he didn't run all that fast (think he got a 92 BSF and a 101 by my numbers, which is about 3 lengths below par) and My Miss Aurelia bested his time a lil earlier in the Frizette. The Champagne and Frizette were run in almost identical splits, but the girls came home faster. At least the winning girl did.
Haven't looked closely at the Cali babies so I can't say if some of them can beat him or not...have to get those advance BrCup pp's !!

When are they coming out, by the way?
DRF usually gets them out pretty early....maybe in the next week??you are looking in california for the horse that might be the horse that can give union rags a run for the money. you will be able to go to your back yard in new orleans this winter and watch a major horse run that hasn't even broken his maiden yet. HAMMER'S TERROR is one serious race horse that should be in maidens at keeneland OCTOBER 20. of course this horse will have to make good forward progress to be in the same league as UNION RAGS. but judging what i have seen of this horse, he has done everything right his whole life except for not having his nose down at the right time in his first race in ARLINGTON. there have been other great horses before him that did not win on their first try.

[gm10]

you are looking in california for the horse that might be the horse that can give union rags a run for the money. you will be able to go to your back yard in new orleans this winter and watch a major horse run that hasn't even broken his maiden yet. HAMMER'S TERROR is one serious race horse that should be in maidens at keeneland OCTOBER 20. of course this horse will have to make good forward progress to be in the same league as UNION RAGS. but judging what i have seen of this horse, he has done everything right his whole life except for not having his nose down at the right time in his first race in ARLINGTON. there have been other great horses before him that did not win on their first try.

Got a decent figure on debut (in my book anyway). I'm full of anticipation now ;)

[Robert Fischer]

union rags is a cool horse.

he doesn't look like he'll be limited to sprinting. He isn't a real late-blooming stayer either, but he looks like he'll be able to progress in distance. He looks like the type who could benefit from racing and training more than one who needs KID GLOVES.

[Robert Fischer]

HAMMER'S TERROR is one serious race horse that should be in maidens at keeneland OCTOBER 20. of course this horse will have to make good forward progress


reminds me of the classy owner "MC Hammer" :D

[lamboguy]

reminds me of the classy owner "MC Hammer" :D
i think the guy that owns the horse named him after himself. all i know about the guy is that he has gary stute as his racing manager.

i hate to say how many times in this game you think you have something special that doesn't turn out to be as good as you thought. at least this one has no real negetive marks so far.

i had seen currency trader also before he ran, but i don't like the way he lugs out at the end of his races. i was hoping that could have been corrected between his races.

[classhandicapper]

When a similar situation arises in the future and a lightly raced horse is 3-2 off a giant fig earned in the slop and is back on a dry track, I will try to beat them, too.

This is also a tough call when it's the other way around and you aren't sure whether to excuse a bad race on a wet track.

IMHO, the best approach is to not have any rules and to instead just try to decipher the situation.

This was the evidence.

1. He won as a FTS on a fast track in a race that was probably a little better than it looked on speed figures.

2. He had a monster work between his first start and second start suggesting that he might move forward (I played him in his second start off that ). I can't recall where I read about the work, but I think the phrase "really turned a lot of heads" was used.

3. The horses coming out of the race more or less confirmed that he had run really well that day on the slop

4. It looked like he was bred to love a wet track.

5. Metz typically doesn't have them totally wound up as either FTS or for sprints (though he won with a few FTS lately).

I suspect that if you looked at a thousand lightly raced horses that won on the mud like this, the preponderance of evidence suggests that this horse would turn out to be mud loving fool WAY LESS OFTEN than is typically the case. Plus I'm not even sure how huge of a negative it is normally even though it's a risk.

I'm not smart enough to know what the fair price was. I just didn't see any compelling reason to bet on him or against him. That's just me though. I am sort of philosophically against the idea of betting against favorites that I think deserve to be the favorite except in clear cut situations. Betting against deserving favorites is mathematically an extremely difficult way to play the game. But that's a different story. Perhaps you found good value against him.

[Valuist]

This is also a tough call when it's the other way around and you aren't sure whether to excuse a bad race on a wet track.

IMHO, the best approach is to not have any rules and to instead just try to decipher the situation.

This was the evidence.

1. He won as a FTS on a fast track in a race that was probably a little better than it looked on speed figures.

2. He had a monster work between his first start and second start suggesting that he might move forward (I played him in his second start off that ). I can't recall where I read about the work, but I think the phrase "really turned a lot of heads" was used.

3. The horses coming out of the race more or less confirmed that he had run really well that day on the slop

4. It looked like he was bred to love a wet track.

5. Metz typically doesn't have them totally wound up as either FTS or for sprints (though he won with a few FTS lately).

I suspect that if you looked at a thousand lightly raced horses that won on the mud like this, the preponderance of evidence suggests that this horse would turn out to be mud loving fool WAY LESS OFTEN than is typically the case. Plus I'm not even sure how huge of a negative it is normally even though it's a risk.

I'm not smart enough to know what the fair price was. I just didn't see any compelling reason to bet on him or against him. That's just me though. I am sort of philosophically against the idea of betting against favorites that I think deserve to be the favorite except in clear cut situations. Betting against deserving favorites is mathematically an extremely difficult way to play the game. But that's a different story. Perhaps you found good value against him.

When its the other way around I would definitely excuse the race on the sloppy track. Comparing sloppy tracks to dry tracks is apples and oranges

[classhandicapper]

When its the other way around I would definitely excuse the race on the sloppy track. Comparing sloppy tracks to dry tracks is apples and oranges

I tend to do the same thing, but sometimes the horse was fine with the off track and simply went off form. IMO it's still a risk factor.

[FantasticDan]

Background story:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65537/union-rags-has-seabiscuit-like-story

[Track Phantom]

How good is Union Rags? Could he end up being one of the greats or just a great 2 year old?

[Robert Fischer]

I really like him.

I hope he runs his best race today.

The Juvenile really worried me about his future.

[nijinski]

Wanted to bump this thread up for the son of Dixie Union.
Congrats to all connections on the FOY victory , especially to Matz , who
had him fit and ready for this.
who has been taking a beating from some here. Nice catch for Leparoux
too!

[BetCrazyGirl]

He did awesome today

[Rise Over Run]

Another nice background story from PA Equestrian:

http://terryconway.net/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=177:phyllis-wyeths-dream-comes-true-in-top-derby-contender&catid=7:pa-equestrian&Itemid=9

I had heard he was bought back after the breeders originally sold him, but I didn't realize it was from IEAH. Thank you Phyllis Wyeth for spending the money to get him back from them.

[davew]

after todays race, looks like a legitimate triple crown contender

[PaceAdvantage]

I have merged a Union Rags thread from General Handicapping into this preexisting thread...

[nijinski]

Another nice background story from PA Equestrian:

http://terryconway.net/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=177:phyllis-wyeths-dream-comes-true-in-top-derby-contender&catid=7:pa-equestrian&Itemid=9

I had heard he was bought back after the breeders originally sold him, but I didn't realize it was from IEAH. Thank you Phyllis Wyeth for spending the money to get him back from them.
I read this one when it came out and of course loved it . She paid
three times the money to get him back and she in return was
rewarded for the deed.
People who had connections with his sire Dixie Union as well will be pulling for UR. His sire's life being cut short at a young age was hearbreaking.

[duncan04]

after todays race, looks like a legitimate triple crown contender

Wow one race and you make that comment? :rolleyes:

[Cardus]

Wow one race and you make that comment? :rolleyes:

Perhaps he meant that Union Rags was a contender for the three-year-old classics, and not that he was a candidate to win all of them.

[Leparoux]

Wow one race and you make that comment? :rolleyes:
Today was his first career start?

Showed a ton as a two year old and romped in his first start at three. Triple crown is a bit much but we certainly have a lot more to go off of besides one race.

[Beachbabe]

Today was his first career start?

Showed a ton as a two year old and romped in his first start at three. Triple crown is a bit much but we certainly have a lot more to go off of besides one race.


Nice pick-up mount, Juli !

:cool:

[duncan04]

Today was his first career start?

Showed a ton as a two year old and romped in his first start at three. Triple crown is a bit much but we certainly have a lot more to go off of besides one race.

Never said it was his first start. But it was his first start as a three year old against suspect opponents. While it was an impressive win, not saying Triple Crown winner or even contender yet. Hopefully he keeps progressing.

[Fager Fan]

Impressive run. Congrats to the winner. Still going with a longshot as my top 3yo at this point, and that's Midnight Transfer.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nice pick-up mount, Juli !

:cool:


HAHAHA!!!I was about to say the same.

[Track Phantom]

...when we very possibly get a deserving Triple Crown winner. I dug into every aspect of Union Rags and firmly believe this is a very special horse. He reminds me an awful lot of Easy Goer (albeit different running styles).

Easy Goer also won the Champagne Stakes and was also 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. If it not for Sunday Silence, Easy Goer would have been the last Triple Crown winner.

It's just my opinion....

[mannyberrios]

It would be nice if he could be The Horse

[melman]

Union Rags is one HUGE colt. Yesterday a nice tune up prep.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/horse_racing/20120227_Union_Rags_dominates_at_Fountain_of_Youth .html

[gm10]

I was very impressed until I calculated some numbers for him this morning.
Now I'm slightly underwhelmed.

[Tom]

I give him a 3.

Two threads combined into one so far, now another new one makes three. :D

[classhandicapper]

I was very impressed until I calculated some numbers for him this morning.
Now I'm slightly underwhelmed.

The race wasn't that fast, but I'm pretty sure that was by design.

Take a look at the way Matz handled Barbaro. Barbaro demonstrated a lot of promise early in his career, but he wasn't particularly fast in his early 3YO races. However, each race was a step in the right direction and then Matz really cracked down after the Florida Derby heading into the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro had some much faster works heading into the K Derby and peaked for the big dance.

Obviously, I'm not predicting the same thing for Union Rags. but I think he showed a lot of promise at 2 and I think all Matz wanted yesterday was for the horse to come back approximately where he left off and get a good race under his belt. If he's going to be a top horse, IMO we'll see more in the Florida Derby and his workouts heading towards the Derby.

Matz doesn't train like Pletcher/Baffert where their horses often run huge figures very early in the their career and peak early.

[cj]

The race wasn't that fast, but I'm pretty sure that was by design.

That is pretty hard to judge really. It was the only race run around two turns, and it is run on a weird configuration with an alternate finish line where I have found the timing can be suspect on occasion. Top it off with the fact the pace was pedestrian and I don't think people should draw many conclusions about the winner from the clock.

[magwell]

He made a good appearance and ran as fast as he had to, his action is good and if he stays sound is a strong contender for the Fla. and Ky derby's as of now.

[classhandicapper]

That is pretty hard to judge really. It was the only race run around two turns, and it is run on a weird configuration with an alternate finish line where I have found the timing can be suspect on occasion. Top it off with the fact the pace was pedestrian and I don't think people should draw many conclusions about the winner from the clock.

Understood.

It's just tough to conclude it was a fast race unless you think Discreet Dancer ran his typical race and News Pending ran a big new top. That doesn't seem likely.

He looked good, finished well etc.. We'll find out what he has in the tank shortly when he's closer to 100% and gets a good pace.

[cj]

Understood.

It's just tough to conclude it was a fast race unless you think Discreet Dancer ran his typical race and News Pending ran a big new top. That doesn't seem likely.

He looked good, finished well etc.. We'll find out what he has in the tank shortly when he's closer to 100% and gets a good pace.

It probably wasn't fast, but I think people are prematurely dismissing News Pending. He has improved almost every time out and hadn't run on dirt in four months. I put the figure closer to 100 for the winner than to the 95 Beyer assigned.

[classhandicapper]

I haven't reviewed the day yet, but there's a conversation on the Thorograph board about the rail potentially being dead at GP on Sunday (perhaps Saturday also). Anyone have any views on that?

[cj]

I think that is a bit of a reach. It wasn't an advantage by any means, but the track seemed pretty fair to me.

[jognlope]

Saw him in his first race in the mud, wow what a professional at 2.

[jognlope]

Jason thanks for beautiful photo. He has a "good eye."

[FenceBored]

What two year old race has produced consistent Derby winners over that time?

Was rereading this thread and noticed this one. Limiting it to just the race winners, the short answer is (of course) none. Going back to the 1985 Ky Derby, the only 2yo race that has been won more than once by the following year's Derby winner is the Remsen with two winners. Pushing it back to an even 30 years (back to Gato Del Sol) you can add the Del Mar Futurity, the Grey, and the Swynford to the two-timers.

[jognlope]

Hope he's not in Wood Memorial, or if he is, he's taking a nap, it's a jinx for the derby.

[Spalding No!]

Hope he's not in Wood Memorial, or if he is, he's taking a nap, it's a jinx for the derby.
Not only has the Wood produced Derby winners Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, and Funny Cide since 2000, but it's also produced Preakness winners Red Bullet and Funny Cide, and Belmont winners Empire Maker and Jazil. Not too shabby.