Cigar Mile Analysis

[Bubbles]

MIDAS EYES: Frankel and layoffs don't mix, especially with this one. Came off a five-month break to be a distant eighth in the B.C. Sprint, and his bad start didn't exactly help him. Will be overbet, and while he might suck Congaree into a speed duel, won't do much else.

CONGAREE: Perhaps the best miler in the country. Finished a game fourth in the Classic after a long speed duel down the backstretch, and this earner of over $3 million shows up here. Definitely the one to catch.

NEW YORK HERO: This one's claim to fame is his win in the G2 Lane's End back in March. And his recent form is solid, loses five pounds in weight off of an impressive allowance win, and fired a bullet work on Thursday; interesting.

NEWFOUNDLAND: Was beaten by daylight by a very classy During in the Discovery, and that race has me concerned. His workouts are nothing to boast about either; longshot.

TOCCET: This one looked so promising at the end of last year, what happened? He has only one win, a restricted stakes triumph, to his credit, and couldn't even beat a less-than-stellar field in another minor stakes at Laurel. However, his Remsen win here last year was good, and he's worked up to this in impressive fashion; can't leave off the exotics tickets.

WELL FANCIED: This is your champion NY-Bred if Funny Cide was never foaled. 7-4-1-1 this year, including a win in a thrilling Empire Classic over the old warrior Gander. Has a ton of speed, loses nine pounds in weight, AND gets Prado, perhaps at decent odds: the pick.

VOODOO: Very fast gelding defeated a respectable field in the Sport Page last out. However, there's way too much early speed in here, and this one'll have to step up his game significantly to have a shot here.

BOWMAN'S BAND: Cut back severely in distance last out, when Voodoo beat him in the Sport Page. Defeated Dynever in the Meadowlands Cup, and this is his third start off a two-month layoff; one of the ones.

THE PICKS

WELL FANCIED
CONGAREE
BOWMAN'S BAND

[Bubbles]

1 1 Midas Eyes(L) 115 Velazquez, John R Edmund A. Gann Frankel, Robert J 5-1
2 2 Congaree(L) 124 Bailey, Jerry D Stonerside Stable Baffert, Bob 4-5
3 3 New York Hero(L) 113 Castellano, Javier Paraneck Stable Pedersen, Jennifer 30-1
4 4 Newfoundland(L) 113 Migliore, Richard Sumaya US Stable Pletcher, Todd 20-1
5 5 Toccet(L) 115 Luzzi, Mike Daniel Borislow Scanlan, John F 10-1
6 6 Well Fancied(L) 115 Prado, Edgar Sanford Goldfarb Dutrow Jr, Richard E 6-1
7 7 Voodoo(L) 116 Santos, Jose Susan and John Moore Jerkens, James A. 8-1
8 8 Bowman's Band(L) 118 Dominguez, Ramon Martin Schwartz Jerkens, H Allen 6-1

Well Fancied at 6-1 while getting nine pounds from Congaree? I'll take that action come post time with open arms.

[kingfin66]

I think Congaree can be beat in this race based solely on running style. This is a race with heavy pressure on the front end. Congaree may well be the speed of the speed, but I would almost have to bet on a closer - is there a real sustain horse in here? - based on race shape alone. My pick is Bowman's Band.

For an exacta, I like Bowman's Band over Congaree, Well Fancied and Voodoo. Will I play this race? Depends on how much price there is with BB. To make money I might have to box BB and Congaree with a win bet on BB, but don't know if I like it enough to play it.

[keilan]

All these horses win on or as part of pace, so I expect them to run quick early. It's a one turn mile so post shouldn't be a huge disadvantage, the start is likely more important.

I absolutely love(1) Midas Eyes I used him on some tickets on BC Day, that race should set him up nicely for today. I think he can withstand the early fractions and still have something left late. He is my key!

(2) Congaree is always double tough and should be gutting it out at the wire.

(6) Well Fancied is versatile and might not need the lead to win, I expect another big effort from this NY bred today.

I don't see any of the others being able to sustain the expected pace and finish in the top two. And if they don't run early they will be asked to do something that they haven't been successful in the past doing.

My exactor wager

1 / 2-6

2-6 / 1

[kingfin66]

Originally posted by kingfin66
I think Congaree can be beat in this race based solely on running style. This is a race with heavy pressure on the front end. Congaree may well be the speed of the speed, but I would almost have to bet on a closer - is there a real sustain horse in here? - based on race shape alone. My pick is Bowman's Band.

For an exacta, I like Bowman's Band over Congaree, Well Fancied and Voodoo. Will I play this race? Depends on how much price there is with BB. To make money I might have to box BB and Congaree with a win bet on BB, but don't know if I like it enough to play it.

My plays are as follows: $20 X box 2/8; $30 win 8; $10 X 8/6-7; $5 X 6-7/8. I should note this is phony pony money only, but it is how I would play it for real too if that makes any sense.

[Suff]

no plays for me... But a race I'm anxious to watch. Its a to tough to call race for me..

My Gut says Toccet runs a race.... But my Gut cost me a Grand this week so I'm ignoring him. Licking my chops and picking my spots...and this is a Pass for me.. Good Luck.

[kingfin66]

It looks like we both saved real $$$ by passing this one. You know that old saying, nobody ever lost money by passing a race.