View Full Version : HOTY darkhorses
keithw84
10-04-2011, 05:07 PM
Got to thinking about this after reading Dan Illman's blog: Does anyone think Flat Out or Game On Dude could win HOTY with a win in the classic?
Got to thinking about this after reading Dan Illman's blog: Does anyone think Flat Out or Game On Dude could win HOTY with a win in the classic?
Doubtful either of them could overcome Havre de Grace in my opinion.
toussaud
10-04-2011, 05:20 PM
if Game on Dude wins the classic, i don't see how he doesn't get the HOY IMHO. It would be a highway robbery if he didn't. Big Cap winner, GoodWood and Breeders Cup classic winner and lost the Gold Cup by the slimmist of margins.
if Game on Dude wins the classic, i don't see how he doesn't get the HOY IMHO. It would be a highway robbery if he didn't. Big Cap winner, GoodWood and Breeders Cup classic winner.
Personally, I don't think the Goodwood and Big Cap carry the weight they once did. Lets be honest, he went off at nearly 6 to 1 (and lost) in his very next start after the Big Cap...in a G3 at CharlesTown no less.
ManU918
10-04-2011, 05:23 PM
What about Acclamation?
What about Acclamation?
He hasn't been good enough to win it. He only has two G1 wins on turf, which like it or not is a second class surface in this country. He would need to win the Turf (which isn't happening) and have some major upset in the Classic, and even that probably wouldn't pass Havre de Grace.
redshift1
10-04-2011, 05:27 PM
if Game on Dude wins the classic, i don't see how he doesn't get the HOY IMHO. It would be a highway robbery if he didn't. Big Cap winner, GoodWood and Breeders Cup classic winner and lost the Gold Cup by the slimmist of margins.
The GoodWood and Big Cap fields were so so talent wise.
ManU918
10-04-2011, 05:30 PM
He hasn't been good enough to win it. He only has two G1 wins on turf, which like it or not is a second class surface in this country. He would need to win the Turf (which isn't happening) and have some major upset in the Classic, and even that probably wouldn't pass Havre de Grace.
Your forgetting about the G1 Pacific Classic win. All together five straight wins, three G1s and two G2s.
Your forgetting about the G1 Pacific Classic win. All together five straight wins, three G1s and two G2s.
I didn't, that is why I said on turf. Still, outside California does anyone even know this horse? The racing is so bad there right now he isn't going to get a lot of credit. I also think the chances of him winning either the Classic on dirt (0%) or the Turf at 1 1/2 miles (1%) are slim.
ManU918
10-04-2011, 05:45 PM
I didn't, that is why I said on turf. Still, outside California does anyone even know this horse? The racing is so bad there right now he isn't going to get a lot of credit. I also think the chances of him winning either the Classic on dirt (0%) or the Turf at 1 1/2 miles (1%) are slim.
The Pacific Classic isn't on turf.
The Pacific Classic isn't on turf.
Though some would debate whether that surface counts as turf, I do know it is on polytrack. That is why I said he has won two G1s on turf. Where did I say it was? Regardless, he has no shot at HOY unless you think a) he wins the Classic, or b) he wins the Turf and the Classic is won by an outsider.
ManU918
10-04-2011, 05:53 PM
Though some would debate whether that surface counts as turf, I do know it is on polytrack. That is why I said he has won two G1s on turf. Where did I say it was? Regardless, he has no shot at HOY unless you think a) he wins the Classic, or b) he wins the Turf and the Classic is won by an outsider.
Well if in your mind your counting polytrack as turf then he has won three not two G1's on turf. Not sure anyone else in the business counts polytrack as turf though. This thread is called darkhorses not front runners. Acclamation is a darkhorse, hence why I brought him up.
classhandicapper
10-04-2011, 06:29 PM
This thread is called darkhorses not front runners. Acclamation is a darkhorse, hence why I brought him up.
Setting aside CA racing and polytrack, turf horses typically only get serious consideration for HOTY if there are no worthy dirt candidates. So IMO, Acclamation would have to win the Classic or win the Turf Classic and benefit from a major upset in the Classic to have any chance of getting it over HDG.
I think Flat Out might have a chance to get it if he turns the tables on HDG and wins the Classic. They would be 1 and 1 heads up and Flat Out would have 2 Grade 1 wins against boys and the bigger victory. You could at least make that case.
Game on Dude has a spottier record than Flat Out and raced against weaker. I can't see him winning HOTY over HDG even if he wins the Classic, but he'd certainly get some votes.
Bullet Plane
10-04-2011, 06:33 PM
I think that Stay Thirsty, Game on Dude, Tisway, Flat Out, and HDG can win it with a win in the Classic.
If an outsider wins it, I'd say HDG has the inside track.
rrpic6
10-04-2011, 06:36 PM
If Rapid Redux wins again to remain undefeated, he is my darkhorse HOTY!
RR
Well if in your mind your counting polytrack as turf then he has won three not two G1's on turf. Not sure anyone else in the business counts polytrack as turf though. This thread is called darkhorses not front runners. Acclamation is a darkhorse, hence why I brought him up.
There is a failure for me to get my point across, sorry. I know what surfaces all G1 races are run on, I can assure you that much. He is a darkhorse, no doubt, I just think there are no real circumstances where it can actually happen.
5k-claim
10-04-2011, 08:00 PM
Hansen.
toussaud
10-04-2011, 08:06 PM
I think that Stay Thirsty, Game on Dude, Tisway, Flat Out, and HDG can win it with a win in the Classic.
If an outsider wins it, I'd say HDG has the inside track.
this is pretty much how is see it.
or
I could see Acclimation winning but he needs help.He has to 1. win the BC Turf, that's a must and
2. a long shot has to win the Classic.
Even more interesting, hypothetically ,what if uncle mo somehow found a way to win the breeders cup classic? I don't think he would have a shot still at horse of the year but I've seen stranger things and the hype machine would try hard to give it to him.
I believe if Acclimation won the breeders cup turf, he would have as good a shot as any
I also believe if any of the 5 win the BCC you named it's pretty much in the bag. Resume's are too strong.
depalma113
10-04-2011, 08:38 PM
Got to thinking about this after reading Dan Illman's blog: Does anyone think Flat Out or Game On Dude could win HOTY with a win in the classic?
Since the award no longer has any real significance, does it really matter?
Why not just continue the lifetime achievement nonsense and give it to Goldikova if she gets off the plane in Louisville.
keithw84
10-04-2011, 11:41 PM
Since the award no longer has any real significance, does it really matter?
Why not just continue the lifetime achievement nonsense and give it to Goldikova if she gets off the plane in Louisville.
I think last year will still be an anomaly. While I disagree with the voters who picked Zenyatta, she was the overwhelming "sentimental favorite" and she had made a case for HOTY in 2008 and 2009. It's not very often that the same horse will be the 2nd best horse two years in a row and then have a campaign good enough in year 3 to merit consideration yet again for HOTY, IMO.
letswastemoney
10-05-2011, 04:25 AM
You won't have to worry about Game On Dude winning the Classic.
classhandicapper
10-05-2011, 10:13 AM
Since the award no longer has any real significance, does it really matter?
Why not just continue the lifetime achievement nonsense and give it to Goldikova if she gets off the plane in Louisville.
HOTY is a lot like MVP in sports. There is no clear definition of what it is.
Some see it as best horse
Some see it as best horse and place a lot of weight on peak performance in the Classic while others think more in terms of average performance
Some see it as the horse that accomplished the most (Grade 1 and other important victories)
Some see it as the horse that made the biggest impact on the sport
Some look at just US races and some might consider US races in combination with foreign record
Some look at weight carried, trips, etc.. to determine who was actually best and accomplished the most
Most weigh all these things but in different ways.
Until there is a clear cut definition, some people are going to make selections that other people disagree with (sometimes strongly)
papillon
10-05-2011, 03:01 PM
Hansen.
heh!
serious question: has a 2 year old ever raced against quality older horses and won?
MadWorld
10-05-2011, 03:53 PM
Personally, I don't think the Goodwood and Big Cap carry the weight they once did. Lets be honest, he went off at nearly 6 to 1 (and lost) in his very next start after the Big Cap...in a G3 at CharlesTown no less.
The race included the winners of this year's:
G1 Goodwood
G1 Santa Anita Handicap
G1 Whitney
G1 Met Mile
G1 Pacific Classic
G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap
G3 Longacres Mile
G3 Lone Star handicap (over Flat out and Game on Dude)
G3 Excelsior
List does not include graded stakes winners at sprint distances or on turf of which another 5 or 6 races could be added. That looks like a much better race than a G3.
BlinkersOn
10-05-2011, 06:38 PM
Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace may well face each other in the Classic. That should be quite a race, but I think my money will still be on Havre de Grace. I really like the connections of the horse. Uncle Mo is back though---great last race by him.
The race included the winners of this year's:
G1 Goodwood
G1 Santa Anita Handicap
G1 Whitney
G1 Met Mile
G1 Pacific Classic
G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap
G3 Longacres Mile
G3 Lone Star handicap (over Flat out and Game on Dude)
G3 Excelsior
List does not include graded stakes winners at sprint distances or on turf of which another 5 or 6 races could be added. That looks like a much better race than a G3.
I know it is definitely not your typical G3, but it kind of makes my point about the Big Cap. That was hardly your typical G1, and certainly not the "elite" type G1 it was in the past.
5k-claim
10-05-2011, 08:45 PM
heh!
serious question: has a 2 year old ever raced against quality older horses and won?Hey, thanks for supporting my "darkhorse" entry.
I would also like to see some answers to your question... personally I sure as heck wouldn't suggest someone do that as it is not necessary to earn money. Plus, I don't even know how many races are written where that would even technically be possible. Of course, I wouldn't suggest racing girls against boys that much, either. The goal is the path that combines the most purse money with the least resistance- at least most of the time.
.
Hey, thanks for supporting my "darkhorse" entry.
I would also like to see some answers to your question... personally I sure as heck wouldn't suggest someone do that as it is not necessary to earn money. Plus, I don't even know how many races are written where that would even technically be possible. Of course, I wouldn't suggest racing girls against boys that much, either. The goal is the path that combines the most purse money with the least resistance- at least most of the time.
.
The only race I remember written for 2 years old and up was the 2 furlong "Rocket Man" at Calder.
5k-claim
10-05-2011, 09:06 PM
The only race I remember written for 2 years old and up was the 2 furlong "Rocket Man" at Calder.Cool. I didn't even know that one.
MadWorld
10-06-2011, 10:09 AM
I know it is definitely not your typical G3, but it kind of makes my point about the Big Cap. That was hardly your typical G1, and certainly not the "elite" type G1 it was in the past.
It had arguably 2 of the top 5 male Handicap horses in Game on Dude and First Dude along with another top 10 horse in Twirling Candy. Throw in it was an eleven horse field and it was one of the better races this year. How many G1's were better? Not the JCGC, Donn, probably not Stephen Foster etc.
OTM Al
10-06-2011, 10:49 AM
The only race I remember written for 2 years old and up was the 2 furlong "Rocket Man" at Calder.
They are very rare here, but I have seen a few, including at least 1 Group race in England, where they will list 2 and up in 5f races. 2yo get a major weight break in those.
classhandicapper
10-06-2011, 11:23 AM
It had arguably 2 of the top 5 male Handicap horses in Game on Dude and First Dude along with another top 10 horse in Twirling Candy. Throw in it was an eleven horse field and it was one of the better races this year. How many G1's were better? Not the JCGC, Donn, probably not Stephen Foster etc.
IMO...
1. The SA Handicap was a below PAR Grade 1 race, but it wasn't terrible compared to some of the other Grade 1 races for older horses this year (the Foster for example).
At the time I argued it was below PAR, but better than the 100 Beyer figure it earned. That view was probably correct because subsequent races by many of the same horses were faster.
2. The CT Classic was better and much deeper than the average Grade 3 race, but it wasn't a Grade 1 race either.
3. The best Grade 1 races for older have been run in the NY (the Met and Whitney)
exactatom
10-06-2011, 02:32 PM
Do you think that the group that grades stakes races annually will recognize the weakening climate in California and downgrade some of these races that are attracting much weaker fields than in prior years? It seems to me that watching HRTV during winter/spring Santa Anita that there is a graded race of some sort most days. With smaller fields and fewer quality horses I do not believe all of these races continue to merit graded status.
classhandicapper
10-06-2011, 03:16 PM
Do you think that the group that grades stakes races annually will recognize the weakening climate in California and downgrade some of these races that are attracting much weaker fields than in prior years? It seems to me that watching HRTV during winter/spring Santa Anita that there is a graded race of some sort most days. With smaller fields and fewer quality horses I do not believe all of these races continue to merit graded status.
I don't think they'll do anything unless a trend is sustained for awhile. This kind of thing tends to cyclical. Every once in awhile certain categories from one section of the country are much stronger than the same categories from another section of the country. Besides, not all the categories in CA are weak. The sprint division has been pretty solid and a number of good 3YOs of both sexes came out of CA last year.
papillon
10-14-2011, 12:16 PM
Hey, thanks for supporting my "darkhorse" entry.
I would also like to see some answers to your question... personally I sure as heck wouldn't suggest someone do that as it is not necessary to earn money. Plus, I don't even know how many races are written where that would even technically be possible. Of course, I wouldn't suggest racing girls against boys that much, either. The goal is the path that combines the most purse money with the least resistance- at least most of the time.
.
you're welcome =)
thanks for trying to answer my question--thanks to CJ and OTM-AL too for your responses, good to know.
i'm a little bit worried that the human hansen may have screwed up with the horse hansen by not running him in the futurity--the juvenile is looking pretty full. i'm worried the white wonder may not be able to get in, since he has no graded points.
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