Shippers: From N.Y. to Delaware

[pondman]

I warn you up front: Don't use this for any other track but Delaware. I've been studying shippers for 16 years. Ever track is different. You could lose substantial amounts of money using this information elsewhere.

Here is the breakdown of shippers by class. I would consider dumping all of your preconceived ideas regarding handicapping. I'd suggest getting rid of your ideas of universal rating systems. Don't look at the beyers number or the horses performance in NY. You will be mislead.

For horses shipped from NY(Sar, Bel, Aqu) into Delaware park, their first time out, if you bet the cluster:


Claiming- 17% wins. ROI -1.5
Allowance- 42% wins. ROI 1.95
MClaiming- 30% wins, ROI 1.6
MSW- 25% wins, ROI -1.3
Others(Graded. Stakes)- 16% wins, ROI - 1.1

You can apply these statistics using your own judgement. I haven't played it real hard but I'm sitting at $3200 ahead for the current meet. But this is small change (and boring) compared to other tracks.

For those of you who say it can't be done, that the best only get 10% ROIs. Heres an examples...

Maybe I should start a thread entitle: Delaware Park-- betting all allowance shippers from NY.

[Shemp Howard]

If Eddie Maple has the mount, double the bet.

[BIG HIT]

Thank's very interesting.How long do you take togather info before you start or feel comfortable betting.Seem's like data mineing would take next to ever or 16yrs? but i like the concept thank's agian

[pondman]

For those of you who play Delaware you might be interested in shippers from Monmouth into Delaware:

Claiming 25% wins, ROI 1.68
Allowance- 13% wins, ROI -1.40
Mclaiming- 28% wins, ROI 1.3
MSW- 16% wins, ROI -1.21

I personally use a methodology that ranks tracks by the cluster of horses running there. You can draw your own conclusions as to the relationship between Del, NY(SAR, Bel, AQU), and Monmouth, or where it's belongs in racing. The biggest help from this data is more an issue of staying out of races, because owners are shipping horses without much chance. And the morning line and the crowd will pound these. I personally would look at the maiden claimers dropping into Delaware from Monmouth. If you have the stomach to consistently bet the whole meet, the profit will be there. Be carefull with the claiming ranks in this set. Because most of the claiming shippers are longer in odds, there are outliers which push the ROI high, but you'll have a long stretch of losers. You'd have to have a strong constitution.
However, to use this type of data you'll need to give up handicapping as you know it. Because you find many of these look awful. If you are a speed handicapper-- forget it. You'll miss the winners.

[pondman]

Thank's very interesting.How long do you take togather info before you start or feel comfortable betting.Seem's like data mineing would take next to ever or 16yrs? but i like the concept thank's agian

I'll play after 1 practice season, if I find an advantage. Not all tracks have the structure for this. But the truth is many do. You just have to go against conventions and find it.

[BIG HIT]

Buy session you mean one meet or one day or one week .?

[pondman]

Buy session you mean one meet or one day or one week .?

A season-- the meet. I'll play after observing a meet.

In many cases I have years of data (since the 286 was available.)

[classhandicapper]

A season-- the meet. I'll play after observing a meet.

In many cases I have years of data (since the 286 was available.)

At what point do you consider the sample size large enough to trust.

I'd have to think broken down by class some of these samples have to be fairly small after a single meet and could easily contain a long shot or two that could skew the results.

I absolutely love what you are doing, but I tried this path a few times in NY looking for hidden class edges (and vice versa) and it seemed to vary from year to year. About the only reliable thing I found was MSW/ALW Florida shippers in the late winter and early spring having an edge over the cheap inner track horses, but it's not even profitable to play them all (at least in most years).

[andicap]

Pondman,

We live in a pari-mutuel world. So why would you give out such a golden nugget as this and ruin your prices? I mean I would not look a gift horse in the mouth and i surely appreciate your information. And I surely don't 'mean to be snide, but I was just wondering.

Is it because you do this for many other tracks and this is just a drop in the bucket of what you do? Or maybe you're just being very nice and I'm way too jaded. :)

Anyway, when you say "allowance shippers," do you mean horses who LAST ran in an allowance race or are entered in allowance races at Delaware?

[BIG HIT]

Don't think that enough people in general would want this method or would want to bet on a horse with bad form or off 6 mo or other negatives plus all research that come with it.
Pondman did say he had multiple track's he played and just gave a general basics of method which as you say was very generous and enlightening .But most people time limited unless you have a database with info and thier is alot he left out for sure.Donn't think his price's will drop anytime soon if ever.Just glad he was willing to share some of it.

[pondman]

Pondman,

We live in a pari-mutuel world. So why would you give out such a golden nugget as this and ruin your prices? I mean I would not look a gift horse in the mouth and i surely appreciate your information. And I surely don't 'mean to be snide, but I was just wondering.



I've read a number of erroneous comments at Pace Advantage, particularly one about NY trainers claiming horses and shipping them to Delaware for easy money. It's not true. If nothing else, I'd prefer to see people avoid that type of horse. It's not going to hurt me, I don't play this type of race.

What do I lose?

My money can always be bet elsewhere. I only lose money if I bet and the horse doesn't win.I'm convince 90% of the people who go to the track, go there for other reasons besides making money. Most people do not understand that it's just a $100 slot machine with a slightly bent reel. And occaisonally it hits. The majority of people don't understand gambling enough to be able to drop $400 on a 40-1 shot, and then go home and sit for a few weeks. So it doesn't matter if I give out data, because most people aren't good gamblers

Delaware Park is small change. I'm betting to win, so I'll probably only take 5k out of there this season. Compare that with taking 16k from one win bet this year.

The horses are entered in an allowance race. Forget about its past. You have to take it at face value, with no other handicapping or you will miss it. This is one of those plays which doesn't have second or third variables, which makes it routine and boring, and the payoffs aren't great. But I think it's safe to bet overtime for the remainder of the season.

[pondman]

I'd have to think broken down by class some of these samples have to be fairly small after a single meet and could easily contain a long shot or two that could skew the results.


It takes an understand of the relationship of the tracks and at what level the owners ship (and where) to win. It's a little gimmicky after a season. but if the win % is high enough and ROI is positive, I'll play it.

Be carefull about requiring too much data. If the market changes, for example monmouth running only on weekends, this will change your data.
If racing remain stable as a dynamic system the data remains constant. And available horses moving between tracks will remain constaint.

Have you ever look at horses leaving Gulfstream? There are plays within that cluster.

[skate]

Wetman

Do you know, this is a great post, man, you've said a bunch....thanks:cool:

Can i figure that you would find Holiday racing "not so good"?

[classhandicapper]

Have you ever look at horses leaving Gulfstream? There are plays within that cluster.

I've only looked at GP to NY in the spring trying to find fresher higher quality horses taking on cheaper tired AQU Inner Track horses. I'm not even sure they have been profitable for me over the last 20 years. I know I have had some good years. There's a class difference even when the class designations are the same.

[Dahoss2002]

This is a great post. To borrow an often used phrase from football coaches, I bet pondman pays "great attention to detail." Reading his posts and a few others here at PA re-kindles my handicapping spirit from the 80's when I actually showed a profit for several years. Takes some dedication no matter what method you use.

[pondman]

10/10

Nimue
ao30000

Owned by Mrs. Fitriani Hay(owner of Cape Blanco)
Trained by Kiaran McGlauphlin(3 for 5 at Del)

This is a challeng for you beyer's speed rating people (51); Was beaten by 14.5. Not a great bet at 3-1, but if the crowd likes another...

[Tom]

What race?

[iceknight]

What race?

Del R2

Equibase spits out the info if you search the horse name.. or scroll through the program..

once you post it here, how do we know that the 'crowd' will not like this even more? :)

[pondman]

Del R2

Equibase spits out the info if you search the horse name.. or scroll through the program..

once you post it here, how do we know that the 'crowd' will not like this even more? :)

Who's going to listen to me?

It's not that interesting of a horse to me, because it will be bet. But for those people who play Del everyday, it might be an other way of looking at things...

It goes against most of the rating type people's views at Pace Advantage. And therefore should be commented on. It goes along with "Do you bet owners?" High end ownder drops one in soft. Do you bet or not?

[castaway01]

I think most of these horses will be bet down, and unfortunately it's the sort of proposition where the minute you post it, every one after that seems to lose. Not meant to be rude, I appreciate the research, but I think when people see Saratoga or Belmont to Delaware they already bet the horse off that, killing your value over any sort of decent sample size. Maybe an obscure trainer might pull that off at a profit, but if Pletcher is the name everyone is already looking for it. As ClassHandicapper posted earlier in the thread, the best example of this is Gulfstream to NY. Yes, that does work, but so many people know that and jump on it that it's not really worth much anymore.

[Tom]

Strange race - the best turf sprinter in the race was a MTO?????

[PaceAdvantage]

It goes against most of the rating type people's views at Pace Advantage. And therefore should be commented on.I find it interesting that the "non-rating type of people" constantly bring up the "rating type people" in their threads, and not the other way around.

It's almost as if the "non-rating types" have an obsession for those who use ratings, and are constantly out to prove themselves.

Why can't both co-exist in harmony? There really is no one answer to this game. I think we've all learned at least that much.

[pondman]

It's almost as if the "non-rating types" have an obsession for those who use ratings, and are constantly out to prove themselves.

If you bare with me, I'll show you, why it's important not to get to caught up in the academics.

[pondman]

Not meant to be rude, I appreciate the research, but I think when people see Saratoga or Belmont to Delaware they already bet the horse off that, killing your value over any sort of decent sample size.


This isn't intended as research or smoke. It's to demonstrate that most of the contemporaty concept are faulty. Why not tally it at the end of the season?

[pondman]

-1 units

10/11
Del Race 8

1a Dixie Rythm
Owner- Augustin
Trainer-Johnathan Sheppard
Heavy weights with an entry.

5 Rojo's Tune
Doesn't look well managed, but for the purposes of the thread, I'd leave it in.

[Dahoss2002]

I like it and although this horse has ran at Delaware, last was at Mth. #10 Mythical Bride. a little wp and exacta key with 1,2,3

[iceknight]

If you bare with me, I'll show you, why it's important not to get to caught up in the academics.

Thanks for sharing an interesting perspective, which you have already used to profit at least one season.

I didn't understand the comment by you or PA on "rating people"..

Are you two referring to people who rate the threads? I do that sometimes, but usually the rate thread menu is so far down the page that I don't tend to see it. If that rate button were on the right or left then ,more people might use it. Also, if it were a click rather than a drop down, it would get more use. [I know these from having run multiple blog formats with different types of rating buttons/menus, stars, radio buttons etc).

Small note: "bear" with me, is the right usage. I do not want to "bare" with guys.. lol..maybe with cute girls I can bare.

[BIG HIT]

Big time owner donna and billy hayes.With trainer joe woodward shipping to mid western track's like today they have one going today at Beulah clm 5000 nw4l 1 mile #6 and another R8 6f nw4l #1 not sure what number though you will have to check.
And one more at pen R7 nw3l clm 7.5 #1
All owner donna and billy and trained by joe woodward who is wining at a 47% clip and don't think will pay $3.00 and bottom claimer make double reason to bet agianst.If understand pond correctly.

[pondman]

All owner donna and billy and trained by joe woodward who is wining at a 47% clip and don't think will pay $3.00 and bottom claimer make double reason to bet agianst.If understand pond correctly.

This is unique to Delaware. I don't know beulah. It could be dramatically different.

At Delaware shipper from both NY and Monmouth into claiming races will burn your money fast; They are extremely over bet and they rarely win. However there are relationships between tracks for claimers. I'd have to point to places such as Portland to Grants Pass for that style of play.

[TrifectaMike]

This isn't intended as research or smoke. It's to demonstrate that most of the contemporaty concept are faulty. Why not tally it at the end of the season?

I appreciate and applaud what you are doing with shippers. Actually I agree, with careful filtering, it's workable.

However, even if you demonstrate that you can produce a profit over time, a week, a month or a meet, how this will invalidate most contemporary concepts or indeed any concept.

Can you explain the process in invalidation in simple terms or complex terms? I seroulsy would like to hear your approach on this subject of invalidation.

Mike (Dr Beav)

[pondman]

I didn't understand the comment by you or PA on "rating people"..


Small note: "bear" with me, is the right usage. I do not want to "bare" with guys.. lol..maybe with cute girls I can bare.

The NY to DEL shipping is a +7/5, one tail(variable) comet. It's very rare in horse racing. Most of my plays require several variables. This has one (plus a class condition.) That's it. As long as Delaware can offer this purse, it will continue. When people bring out a guassian style function and psuedo math, and begin writing about STD and sample sizes, I have to question, "What are they going to do with that?"

Whether you want to play it or not is up to a persons style. But if you play exotics at this track, you should recognize that there is usually only one horse from NY in every allowance race.I'm not sure if this is by design. and these horses are inticed or not. And as a group they win at +40%. And the other classes are not good plays.


Bare- as in let's look at the data without any preconceive ideas.

[iceknight]

The NY to DEL shipping is a +7/5, one tail(variable) comet. It's very rare in horse racing. Most of my plays require several variables. This has one (plus a class condition.) That's it. As long as Delaware can offer this purse, it will continue. When people bring out a guassian style function and psuedo math, and begin writing about STD and sample sizes, I have to question, "What are they going to do with that?"

Whether you want to play it or not is up to a persons style. But if you play exotics at this track, you should recognize that there is usually only one horse from NY in every allowance race.Ideas.

Thank you for the thread. The few times I played Delaware I found it quite difficult. This angle might help though. I will probably track it using some bets on excel (ie monopoly money) and then risk money eventually next season! thanks! I am learning a lot on these boards and it is not just about handicapping, so it is quite fun now!

[pondman]

-2 units

10/17 Monday

4th J
a7500s
Isle 10-1
It would pad you bankroll.

8th
ao40000
Sophia 5-2
logical favorite will be bet by crowd.

[pondman]

+ 0.4 units

10/10 Nimue
10/11 Rojo's Tune
10/17 Sophia 6.8


No more bets this week.

[pondman]

However, even if you demonstrate that you can produce a profit over time, a week, a month or a meet, how this will invalidate most contemporary concepts or indeed any concept.

There are three types of handicappers bettting to win:

1. The optimizer- someone who multiplies variable together and further normalizes the product into a rating. They are working with very small numbers to begin with. Trying to get a 0 to 100 rating is gimmicky.

2. The population estimator- someone who tries to estimate the population of fish. Unfortunatley, not only are they trying to estimate this year's population, but they are trying to forecast next years. When macro events change, it's almost impossible to predict which way the game will go. In other words, what will happen if the purses increase by 10%? What will happen if the meet is cut from 4 to 3 days? How will that change the results?

3. The rocket engineer- someone who estimates velocity and changes in velocity. This is promising and I know it can be done. But the uninformed doesn't understand that a jockey will change his strategy on you. He'll run on the front for a race, and if that doesn't work, he'll sit off the lead. It's not a bowling ball rolling down a hill.

I learned very early in my betting career (learned it from Joe Manzi) of the concept of the "Ringer." This is the life and blood of many trainers. Getting a horse ready with preps and then sending them for the big run. I see all shippers as potential "Ringers." This is where you'll make the money.

I'm not telling the whole story about Delaware. The most promising cluster of horses is the maiden claimers from Monmouth. Within that group are an easily distinguishable group which pay well. Those I save for myself.

[TrifectaMike]

There are three types of handicappers bettting to win:

1. The optimizer- someone who multiplies variable together and further normalizes the product into a rating. They are working with very small numbers to begin with. Trying to get a 0 to 100 rating is gimmicky.

2. The population estimator- someone who tries to estimate the population of fish. Unfortunatley, not only are they trying to estimate this year's population, but they are trying to forecast next years. When macro events change, it's almost impossible to predict which way the game will go. In other words, what will happen if the purses increase by 10%? What will happen if the meet is cut from 4 to 3 days? How will that change the results?

3. The rocket engineer- someone who estimates velocity and changes in velocity. This is promising and I know it can be done. But the uninformed doesn't understand that a jockey will change his strategy on you. He'll run on the front for a race, and if that doesn't work, he'll sit off the lead. It's not a bowling ball rolling down a hill.

I learned very early in my betting career (learned it from Joe Manzi) of the concept of the "Ringer." This is the life and blood of many trainers. Getting a horse ready with preps and then sending them for the big run. I see all shippers as potential "Ringers." This is where you'll make the money.

I'm not telling the whole story about Delaware. The most promising cluster of horses is the maiden claimers from Monmouth. Within that group are an easily distinguishable group which pay well. Those I save for myself.

4.There is a Pondman with the only winning approach and lots of BULLSHIT!

Mike (Dr Beav)

[mishka]

What percentage of all the allowance level horses running at Delware come from the NY tracks in total? For example, in a field of say eight horses, how many came from NYRA tracks? Does this vary as the season goes on? Early in the season, alot came from NYRA? only a few? Thanks.

[pondman]

4.There is a Pondman with the only winning approach and lots of BULLSHIT!

Mike (Dr Beav)

Let see you put something out there, beside academic smoke and fraud.

The only thing I've done is thrown out one variable (you can completely disregard the past performance) and said "watch it." And you'll probably make a great deal more than the 10% ROI that is the maximum possible-- according to the concensus of this web sight.

And my IQ isn't 140. And I use what I learn in 5th and 6th grade.

People who are new to the concept of betting on horses should pay attention to this demonstration. If they want to make money that is, rather than pushing a boulder up a hill.

Do you have anything to help a beginner improve their game?

[pondman]

For example, in a field of say eight horses, how many came from NYRA tracks?Early in the season, alot came from NYRA? only a few? Thanks.

I'd generalize and say usually 1 per race. The % wins includes all horses from NY as if you bet them all. I will bet 2 shippers in a race at times, so I'd have to go back and look if that occured. I'd tell you it didn't occur, but I'm not sure. I don't have a total count for the total # of horses shipped from New York / all horses in the race. It's something I never think about, so I don't collect that information. It's been a constant 3 or 4 spot bets a week. Keep in mind this is a mid-level track, so that allowances races aren't as prevelant.

[TrifectaMike]

Let see you put something out there, beside academic smoke and fraud.

The only thing I've done is thrown out one variable (you can completely disregard the past performance) and said "watch it." And you'll probably make a great deal more than the 10% ROI that is the maximum possible-- according to the concensus of this web sight.

And my IQ isn't 140. And I use what I learn in 5th and 6th grade.

People who are new to the concept of betting on horses should pay attention to this demonstration. If they want to make money that is, rather than pushing a boulder up a hill.

Do you have anything to help a beginner improve their game?

Mr. Pondman,

Playing the races is basically nothing more than making inferences and predictions. Your shipper thingy is no different (by the way nothing new, but that's another story).

Let me make this simple for you (very non-technical).

Inference - suggesting something is true or believable.

Predictions - guessing at an outcome.

In your shipping thingy are you not gathering data and making inferences and based on those inferences are you making predicions? I think so. Do you?


2. The population estimator- someone who tries to estimate the population of fish. Unfortunatley, not only are they trying to estimate this year's population, but they are trying to forecast next years. When macro events change, it's almost impossible to predict which way the game will go. In other words, what will happen if the purses increase by 10%? What will happen if the meet is cut from 4 to 3 days? How will that change the results?


By your definition, you are in effect a population estimator. I know you refer to it as clusters. Clusters based on a previous meet from which you make inferences and then use those inferences to make predictions.

As I said, lots of BULLSHIT!

Mike (Dr Beav)

[Robert Goren]

Pondman, don't the guys with their fancy math formulas get to you. You can laugh at them all the way to bank. Hunting for ringers is a valid handicapping method. It takes a lot of work, but it pays well. Something the math guys refuse to believe is that when their math fails them, there might be a way to predict that. It just kills them they can't put a number on everything.

[GameTheory]

Pondman, don't the guys with their fancy math formulas get to you. You can laugh at them all the way to bank. Hunting for ringers is a valid handicapping method. It takes a lot of work, but it pays well. Something the math guys refuse to believe is that when their math fails them, there might be a way to predict that. It just kills them they can't put a number on everything.And some are just jerks, and they'd still be jerks if all the math knowledge fell out of their head...

[PaceAdvantage]

4.There is a Pondman with the only winning approach and lots of BULLSHIT!

Mike (Dr Beav)What the hell? Pondman didn't deserve that...consider yourself warned.

[Dahoss2002]

What the hell? Pondman didn't deserve that...consider yourself warned.
+1000............ Pondman has actually gave us a couple of winners! Be nice!

[TrifectaMike]

What the hell? Pondman didn't deserve that...consider yourself warned.

Warned? Is this grammar school?

When a person claims his "way" invalidates any other methodologiy and can't prove it, it's BULLSHIT!

Mike (Dr Beav)

[PaceAdvantage]

Warned? Is this grammar school?

When a person claims his "way" invalidates any other methodologiy and can't prove it, it's BULLSHIT!

Mike (Dr Beav)Regardless of any claims, your belligerent replies are uncalled for. In my job as admin and top cop around here, it's my duty to let you know this, in case you are unaware of the terms of service of this board.

TOS (http://www.paceadvantage.com/TOS_PrivacyStatement.html)

[pondman]

By your definition, you are in effect a population estimator. I know you refer to it as clusters. Clusters based on a previous meet from which you make inferences and then use those inferences to make predictions.


I would accept some of that except:

I don't care about finding a means, or an average. I also don't think anything in racing is distributed evenly. I also do not think anything in racing is scalable. I don't quantify any performance and speculate on a future performance. For me, It's all about a millionaire or billionaire moving a horse for an easy win. Which in itself is a gimmicky guess, that would be a better critic.

If the cluster has a high enough win % and a decent ROI on consistent bets, I'll play it. A person with a reasonable level of gambling experience should be able to figure out a way to make money, even if it's boring.
.
If you wanted to really criticize this whole concept, the big arguement would be: this is just a trend. At which point I'd say, I have enough experience to believe it's not a trend. And I do make a lots of money...

[TrifectaMike]

I would accept some of that except:

I don't care about finding a means, or an average. I also don't think anything in racing is distributed evenly. I also do not think anything in racing is scalable. I don't quantify any performance and speculate on a future performance. For me, It's all about a millionaire or billionaire moving a horse for an easy win. Which in itself is a gimmicky guess, that would be a better critic.

If the cluster has a high enough win % and a decent ROI on consistent bets, I'll play it. A person with a reasonable level of gambling experience should be able to figure out a way to make money, even if it's boring.
.
If you wanted to really criticize this whole concept, the big arguement would be: this is just a trend. At which point I'd say, I have enough experience to believe it's not a trend. And I do make a lots of money...

Pondman,

One more attempt. I am not criticizing what you do. In fact, I applauded you.

I am critical of two comments you've made in this thread and in others.

!. Because you have found something that works for you, therefore nothing else could work.

2. You slam those that use inference and prediction to make their selections. Where in fact, you are using the same methodology. You've made an inference and use that inference to make predictions.

Mike (Dr Beav)