HCB Phase II

[turninforhome10]

Discipline and money management. Don't need these if your good says Mr Ego, Thoughts of Charlie's Brown teacher's voice go off in his head. "Handicapping horses, that is what I want to do, not worry about my bottom line". "Ughh" he says after starting out the day really strong and now feeling like Charlie Brown laying on his back after Lucy Luck duped him again. Improvisation with his new found wealth after the 3rd, he again began chasing the big payoff. Fast forward to the last and the bankroll decimated he goes all in on the 9/5 dropper in the MCL Arabian race. No steak tonight, a 2.50 hot dog combo at the local gas station when the favorite drops the rider five jumps out of the gate. Two things can get him motivated to handicap tomorrow. Inflection or Denial.


Well, In The Big Picture we proved that we could take a limited amount of money and with discipline and proper ego alignment invest our bankroll smartly and like a seed watch it grow. Finding the proper races and betting for the proper reasons gave us favorable returns and now we will try to help our seedling sprout into a scrub that can survive a little hardship.

For Phase II, we will up our ante a little to reflect our increased bankroll. Taking 100, of our 126 return, we will continue to follow the rules and try to take our bankroll to 200. The 26 comes back home since we want to pay ourselves first, 6 dollars cover the California roll that we had instead of the hot dog.

Selections will be posted by 11 am est

Thanks for reading
Kirk

[iceknight]

This is nice. I am following it and will try to convert my 20 to 100 too. Thanks for disciple discussion!!

[turninforhome10]

Parx has now taken all races off Turf for the remainder of the meet except the Alphabet Soup Stakes coming up later this month(have not looked). The 4th race is a collection of optimism coming from all over. It is an extra most likely created since the Short Turf race that was in the book for today is nullified.
After first finding the extra with the short field, I got my pp's to scan for names and jockey ridebacks. Then I get my DB to work. First may I say that 45k MSW is good money anywhere and as a trainer you have to take your best shot cause running even 4th is a decent payday. What attract me to the race as a trainer is a tough question with 3 or 4 variables
1) my horse was fit and ready to run on the grass and this is the only way
I get a race.
2) The horse is not gonna make it in the bigs, but is to nice to loose so maybe a surface change and catch a bad field.
3)4th is good money and buys feed and hay for everybody this week as well as paying for shoes and lasix.
4) Can't make any money in the barn. Run em.
Below is the field and 1 of 4 trains of thought and conclusion.
PARX RACING 10-03-2011 RACE 4 OF 9
5.0f DIRT MAIDENS THREE FOUR AND FIVE YEARS OLD
MDN SP WT PURSE: $45000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
:6: NON STOP 2.0 SERPA A. GOLDBERG A. E. (2)
:2: SO BOLD 3.5 CURATOLO R. ORSENO J. F. (1)
:3: JAY E TEE ESS 12.0 HAMPSHIRE JR. J. F COLETTI SR. E. J . (3)
:7: LIAMS LEGEND 10.0 BURKE J. AUWARTER E. K. (1)
:1: RA 5.0 FLORES J. L. LAKE S. A. (4)
:4: THE GREAT BANDINI 4.5 FREY K. ALLARD E. T.(1)
:5: GROGAN 4.0 GARCIA G. MARTIN R. F. (3)

5Wp :6:

[iceknight]

This is nice. I am following it and will try to convert my 20 to 100 too. Thanks for disciple discussion!!
oops.. discipline ..
but I might as well be your disciple in learning this wonderful game. haha!

[turninforhome10]

Does not take rocket science to pick a 2/5 shot. Wow did our price implode. Thought even money at worst but this was bad on to the next. Still looking

[turninforhome10]

A pool play
2p2s :1: in the 5th

[turninforhome10]

Reasonig that the :4: and :5: were the same kind of horse and the place could pay well if the favorites run out. Well the 25-1 :2: filled the spot and paid with a healthy 12.60. The :1: is still eligible for PA bred money and today was a nice effort with little abuse. A restricted race might be the ticket. On to the next

[turninforhome10]

Taking a runner against the favorite. Hampshire likes these kind and if somebody goes with the :2: the :4: can get up late. Hunch play. Thinking to hard here
5wp :4:

[turninforhome10]

Betting against a 3/5 with a Jersey bred looking for value is how you go for hot dogs. Poor decision making and done with dollars in my eyes instead of sense in my head.

[turninforhome10]

Delaware 8th has the names of some well thought of horses earlier in their career.

DELAWARE 10-03-2011 RACE 8 OF 10
8.5f DIRT(F) THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN CLAIMIN
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $42000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
4 EQUESTRIO 2.0 ROSE J. ZITO N. P.
Is a real nice horse as evidenced by company he's kept Completely off form and I would like an out over strip. Class play that takes a lot of money. Could do it but something went wrong after CD grIII
5 WINSLOW HOMER 4.0 SAEZ G. JONES J. L.
Horse has issues no doubt. Question becomes if Larry think he need this to tighten up for later or today is the day. Show great works and comes from good company but is winless in 4yo company.
3 FONDA RONDA WON 6.0 FELICIANO R. SHUMAN J. P.
Only off the board finish this year was against stakes on first at LRL. Consistent type that runs well at strip.
7 GOOD GENERAL 8.0 CORA D. ROJAS M. L.
Lake got a good price for this one as Murray tried to put the speed on the weed and no bananas. Would look silly to drop after that and runs for 40 on down turn in form. Nah
6 SOUL WARRIOR 3.0 TRUJILLO E. ASMUSSEN S. M.
Blow out 4f after 6 to show readiness. Gets in on condition of year after long hiatus. Look to get back on track but needs to find running style. Trujillio rides and probably goes with pace early. Also winless against elders
2 DANDY WALTZ 8.0 GONZALEZ S. SAVILLE N.
Owner trainer attracts 20% jock and working well at Fairhill. Got n1x and has not been near the board since. Ambitious spotting and will wait for tag.
1 FORGOTTEN KNOT 10.0 ROCCO JR. J. ROBERTSON M.
Comes off layoff after fading badly. Winner won by 10 that day so race looks really bad. Rocco rides back with no change in condition. Fits here because of tag. Should run well but not for me.

This is the kind of race I approach with caution as back class is tough to figure without a trip on the strip in the past. Many big names and intentions.
Why would a trainer get a stakes horse ready here now.

5wp :5: I think Larry has this one ready to rumble and big move on turn let's him hang on. I think this horse is prepping for something during BC week.

[turninforhome10]

Equestrio is back. What a nice effort and did it with his ears pricked. I might have had Larry's horse placed a little high and a BC week stakes was wishful thinking on my part. Nice work Mr Zito.
So far today with little ticket play and very little for me to choose from
36 wagered
19.50 return
-16.50 ouch.
And notice the arabian race. Lick my wounds and stare into space. Don't like things today and chasing would be a bad idea, still have eating money. Will start looking at tomorrow as only undisciplined play can result from my current state of mind. Notes to self Jersey breds in open company and PA breds with conditions remember.
Thanks for reading
Be Good Kirk

[turninforhome10]

Working at the real job today. We will look at Bel tonight and post tomorrow
Thanks for reading

[jacklantern]

Appreciate the effort - your posts are very insightful. A welcome change from people posting 4 picks in each race on a card with no explanation and then claiming they cashed when their fourth horse wins - sheesh.

Looking forward to future posts/picks.

[turninforhome10]

I have a background in Education and like it when the light comes on.

[turninforhome10]

Gonna try a hand at Penn tonight. This is my home track and was just wondering
I am gonna work the 3,4, 678. Breaking down a race my way to provide you with the best commentary takes me about 1/2 to 45 per race. Do you want all the picks or 2 or3 races with commentary. As always feel free to chime in with questions or comments. Any thoughts as I want to give the best info I can.

[jacklantern]

I vote for more picks (winners preferred!), briefer commentary...

[turninforhome10]

Cool how bout any I post and give a reason for my selection rather that the whole field and if any has any questions chime in and I'll help when I can.
If the pick does not do well, we can talk about why or look at something we missed. Cool
Notes on this thread. My reason for doing this is my way accomplishing 2 things
1) To try and help anyone that has general questions regarding the rules of racing or the condition book idea and
2) The hot dog guy with the Charlie Brown voices in his head was me and on any given bad day still smolders inside, waiting for a chance to go all on in 3500k N2 at Thistle. I figure if I am sharing and most of the time I treat other better than myself, then typing this out and posting is the best thing I can do to be sincere to all involved and give a little color and insight when I can.
Thanks again for reading
Kirk

[turninforhome10]

PENN NATIONAL 10-04-2011 RACE 3 OF 9
8.5f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN CL
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $34000
These kind of races can attract bears and I like to look for old class horses running for the tag. The step from n1x to n2x can be a big jump for a young horse. Also the type of race that attracts stakes droppers. Especially this time of year.

PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
4 LINEBACKER 5.0 FREY K. PRECIADO G.
Fits for 25 as won his n2x at Prairie . Old class horse picks up bug and tries to stay with pace. Trying to win here.

1 INDIAN JONES 4.0 VAZ E. ARISTONE P. T.
Looks much the best but, rail could pocket this horse and has not gotten through this condition ans the the last win was against lifetime winners. Steps up here.
2 MINE TRAIN 3.0 ACOSTA J. D. GROVE C. W.
Good connections as Dogwood ships this one. Looks for soft spot for n2x and no outs over surface. Why here at Penn and not Parx or Mon.
5 QUAIL HOLLOW 4.0 POTTS C. L. KREISER T. C.
Only 3yo and attracts Potsie. Was all out to win n1x and this is a big step up. Numbers are good and Krieser is good in the claim box. Extra distance a concern.
6 WARSHAW 8.0 CORA D. ROJAS M. L.
Switches to Cora and looks for slower pace. Bad claim IMHO and I can't play
3 VALERIUS 4.5 ROCCO JR. J. WALDER P. R.
Win less since loosing lifetime conditions. Prefer others but if pace is hot has a shot for exotics.
7 EVIL COMMANDER 6.0 CORUJO W. ROJAS M. L.
Wicked speed but distance and last at CT an concern. Murray has an entry in here so something might be cooking up something with pace but horses are same kind

5w10s :4:

[turninforhome10]

When the 9 freaked out in the gate, beware of damage to the 8 physically and mentally. And the public reacts by betting harder on the 0-13 Beattie horse. classic.

[turninforhome10]

Can you make a 0-13 horse 7/5 for the win?

[turninforhome10]

Late runner for 2
1ex box 237\2347=9
1ex8\2347= 4

[turninforhome10]

Late runners, should have stayed in my seat. Potsie is rolling again and is live on about everything he rides. Note
Bankroll down to 70 gotta be smarter

[turninforhome10]

My best pick today opens at 4/5 that sucks. Bridgejumper.

[turninforhome10]

Old horse is loosing a step when he did not get asked down the back side I knew the pace was going to kill him. Dogwood got the money. On to the 4th. Damm

[turninforhome10]

Discipline tells me to avoid all NW4 races. but
My computer says

PENN NATIONAL 10-04-2011 RACE 4 OF 9 - TRACK RATING: 80
5.0f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES
CLAIMING PURSE: $14000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
11 FIT 3.0 RODRIGUEZ A. R. GOLDBERG A. E.
6 BOHEMIAN DREAM 12.0 RAMIREZ J. G. SALVAGGIO JR. M. W
7 GEONI 30.0 CORA D. ROGERS J. M.
10 CHAC MOOL 4.5 ELLIOTT S. FAIRLIE S. H.


I pass on general principles

[turninforhome10]

A note for Penn National look for value in the place and show pools. Lots of time people will bet the favorite to win and forget about place and show.

[turninforhome10]

PENN NATIONAL 10-04-2011 RACE 5 OF 9
6.0f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 4
CLAIMING PURSE: $21000


MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING ):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
5 STRAIGHT THUNDER 15.0 FREY K. FERREIRA F.
7 RICKYONTHERUN 10.0 RISPOLI M. PECORARO A.
4 INDIANSKI 3.0 CORUJO W. VEGA R.
1 BCAUSE BCAUSE 3.5 SOSA JR. P. KRAVETS B. M.

Steve Browns horse :8: is my pick
5w10s

[turninforhome10]

:4: might come down.

[turninforhome10]

I could not take him down but maybe we will get lucky.

[turninforhome10]

First ticket and it is paltry. 14.00 but we only lost a buck
Bankroll 74.00

[turninforhome10]

Penn 6th and my last
5w10s :6: Drop and Vlad with speed

[turninforhome10]

Thought Vladdy might try to jump the gate on the drop but ya gotta have the horse.
Wagers Tally
Invested 46
Returned 39
Bankroll 77.50
If I don't make a runner from boredom I make 9 as our show bets would save us
Discipline!!!!!

Lookin at tomorrow
Thanks
Formula is having a good day and watchin his experiment

[turninforhome10]

Handiman has his Pegasus flying high tonight. Check out his Mountaineer tonight.

[turninforhome10]

With Keeneland starting on Fri we are in the home stretch to the Breeders Cup
Keeneland is one of my bread and butter meets. For the last years fall meet per Twinspires.
Tracks: Keeneland
# of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
24 37.50% +0.59 $348.60 $554.50 $+205.90
Knowing this I will play a little conservative and I am looking at extras for today.
1st extra

BELMONT 10-05-2011 RACE 2 OF 9
6.0f DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $60 000 OR LESS AND W
OPTIONAL CLMG PURSE: $41000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
:1: NIGHT MANEUVER 3.5 CURATOLO R. MARTIN C. F.
Running over horses at the top of the stretch last. Moves forward after trainer stole last.
:3: RESERVED QUALITY 3.0 DOMINGUEZ R. A. DUTROW JR. R. E
Game in stretch drive and Dutrow takes. By the work pattern received complete overhaul for this one. Concern is this one might be meant for AQ winter. Player though.
:6: SUMMER SUNSET 10.0 CASTRO E. GRUSMARK K. M.
In for the 50k after dodging top NY foes. Positive ROI for trainer on the drop . Would need an out at Bel for me. Pass
2 WINNING CASE 12.0 ORTIZ JR. I. PERSAUD R.
Nice filly but last race at FL. Can't find a race for girls so tries here
:4: PURE GRIT 4.0 VELAZQUEZ J. R. SCHWARTZ S. M.
Johhny V and his top of the stretch magic got this one home in last. Needed everything to win last and step up does not intrigue
:1a: GOODTIME BOY 3.5 CHAVEZ J. F. MARTIN C. F
Was pushed hard in the stretch in last lesser half of entry attracts low % jock and I'll pass. If scratched makes me like the straight 1 even more.
:5: GANADOR 1.6 MARAGH R. GALLUSCIO D. G.
Will be chalk based on numbers but last was against field of non-starters. Not my money.

2w6p :1:

[turninforhome10]

The 3rd at Bel represents the return to the races for Eclipse award 2yo fill Awesome Feather. Chad Brown has all eyes on him here. I know Sanchez is regular jock but 0-32 record so far does little to instill confidence. Trainer\Jock duo has no wins and at 1/5 Ml makes no sense.

BELMONT 10-05-2011 RACE 3 OF 9
7.0f DIRT FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A SWEEPSTAKES IN 2011
NONGRADED STAKE/HANDICAP PURSE: $60000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER OOF
:1: WILD BOUT TIFFANY 10.0 TRUJILLO E. PLESA JR. E.
Sppedy sort tried turf stakes to enhance speed advantage. Trainer/Jock combo pretty stealthy. Looks for off track and not today.
:5: INDIAN LILLY 10.0 VELAZQUEZ J. R. POMPAY T. M.
Was very game in last after pressing pace whole way. Concern is how many barns this one has been through. Pompay good trainer and attracts Johnny V looks to move forward. Mixed signals but leaning towards others.
:4: SENTIMENTAL LASS 15.0 MARAGH R. DUGGAN D. P.
NY juvenile stakes winner looks to regain form after failing in 3 up Ny filly stakes. Removes shades and needs rain. Not today
:2: AWESOME FEATHER 0.3 SANCHEZ J. BROWN C. C.
See Above. 1/5 is way to short.
:3: FLYING TRAIN 5.0 CASTELLANO J. JACOBSON D.
Javier sat motionless with this one in last and when asked exploded and won wrapped up. Moving forward gives this one my vote. Little blowout on the 3rd is good for me.


4w 10p :3:

5 Daily Double 1/3

[KidCapper]

Good luck today!

[turninforhome10]

You too.If I have a good day I would love to have a real midwestern steak. I have been an IA boy transplanted in PA and the beef is terrible. People here don't realize what a good steak is unless it's from Omaha

[overthehill]

2nd, I would agree that i think ganador is overbet and I too am picking the #1 but I hardly think the trainer stole considering the double digit odds he went off at in debut. most likely the horse ran way better than the barn expected. could well be the fastest in the field but I think the Grausmark horse could be dangerous. won first race easily than shipped over to synthetic and lost to a 1/5 entry. back to dirt and need not be much to win here.

I think you have to have a lot of guts to bet against the odds on chalk in the 3rd. This looks like a race specifically written to give it an easy prep. I look for it to jog at 1/9.if anything I think the bridgejumpers might come out it here and some show bet might be worthwhile just in case.

[turninforhome10]

2nd, I would agree that i think ganador is overbet and I too am picking the #1 but I hardly think the trainer stole considering the double digit odds he went off at in debut. most likely the horse ran way better than the barn expected. could well be the fastest in the field but I think the Grausmark horse could be dangerous. won first race easily than shipped over to synthetic and lost to a 1/5 entry. back to dirt and need not be much to win here.

I think you have to have a lot of guts to bet against the odds on chalk in the 3rd. This looks like a race specifically written to give it an easy prep. I look for it to jog at 1/9.if anything I think the bridgejumpers might come out it here and some show bet might be worthwhile just in case.

He stole because he got the horse an easy win for a tag. Has nothing to do with gambling. He has a nice starter horse. Did ya watch Grausmark horse. An2l at Presque Isle and here in NY are two totally different things? Maybe your right.
So you would put an 0-32 jock on a Eclipse award winner while Castellano rides a horse that won easily against n2x foes? Ok. Who rides first call for Brown? Castellano.

[turninforhome10]

How does one get their thread closed? Noticed Casino's is closed. I don't want any problems like that.

[turninforhome10]

Early Pick 3
:1: :3: \ :1: \ :2: :3:
Try to get some value from Awesome Feather if I am wrong.

[turninforhome10]

Discipline say that if I did not spend the time on breaking down the first I had no business playing the race. Moshe Diane feeds on hard earned money again, last time she was chalk she got beat by 11 and Sanchez gets the skunk out of the box. Maybe Mr. Sanchez is riding with a big payday in mind today. Pissed away 4 dollars. Bad bet.

[turninforhome10]

Rides like that are why I have so many gray hairs. Kid has some guts and basically could not whip so was forced to ride high and pray. . Good call for Overthehill on the 6 hope you had the tri or some show money. I would say the :3: is meant for AQ winter.
Bet 8 dollars return 17.20 doubled our money and without the ill played p3 we would be perfect so far. That's gambling

[turninforhome10]

Bowed tendons are tough (Awesome feather) a high bow is easier to work with than a low bow. Nothing but time and patience can help. That was a lot of money for a horse with a bow. Noticing how hard she hits the ground when galloping and funky movement. That might be her way of going but it does not look good to me. After the editorial watch her make me look like a dummy.

[turninforhome10]

I am trying to cut and paste a picture of an old man wearing a dunce cap but cannot get it to work as I would be willing to wear it.. Awesome Feather worked pretty hard for that one and I blanked. Willing to eat crow to see her back in action.

[turninforhome10]

Down .20 for the day and have yardwork to get done. Going to watch Woodbine and Penn tonight
Thanks for reading and may all your tickets be good ones
See ya tonight.
P.S. If you wanna take shots for trying to beat a 1-4, I deserve it fire away.

[turninforhome10]

Thought Vladdy might try to jump the gate on the drop but ya gotta have the horse.
Wagers Tally
Invested 46
Returned 39
Bankroll 77.50
If I don't make a runner from boredom I make 9 as our show bets would save us
Discipline!!!!!

Lookin at tomorrow
Thanks
Formula is having a good day and watchin his experiment


This is the kind of delusional math that can make you broke.
Invested 61
Returned 39
Loss 22
Bankroll 55.50
Not keeping proper books and being honest with yourself is the surest way to go broke. Sorry to look stupid on purpose to continue the story.

[jacklantern]

Uhhhhhhh...had the :1: to win in the finale at Belmont - lost by a nose hair at 24-1.

[turninforhome10]

Uhhhhhhh...had the :1: to win in the finale at Belmont - lost by a nose hair at 24-1.


15.20 to place 7.10 to show you did not back based on the uhhhh, . Did you think about backing em and got a little greedy. I hate that the most. Had a horse that shipped into Belmont from Hoosier just to run on the grass and gets beat a nose at 75-1, I was all in and no bananas :blush: That moment when you go from win to nose can take all the heart right out of guy.
The past is the past. Note to self then get ready for the next race.

[turninforhome10]

WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 1 OF 8
7.0f DIRT MAIDENS TWO YEARS OLD
MDN CLAIM PURSE: $24400 RACE RATINGS:
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
4 TAP CHAP 4.0 DASILVA E. R. SMITH J. J.
3 KID WANDO 1.8 CONTRERAS L. LYNCH B. A.
1 HITEC DAVE 4.5 STEIN J. MCKNIGHT N.
12 DEMONOLIGY 10.0 MORENO O. ATTARD P.
8 NEVERDIDITTWICE 30.0 FRASER C. WILCOX T. M.
9 MOLINAROS PRIDE 30.0 BAHEN S. R. ARMATA R.
7 TRY RUNNING 8.0 CONTRERAS J. M. BAKER R.
10 ASAFABOLT 30.0 ALDERSON J. I. MATTINE M.
5 ROSEVILLE 30.0 MOORE M. COHEN M. V.
2 ANGELIC MIA 8.0 MADRID S. O. MCDONALD M. K.
11 HELL BENT 12.0 RAMSAMMY E. MATTINE M.



WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 2 OF 8
6.0f DIRT ONTARIO SIRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WO
ALLOWANCE PURSE: $62300
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
6 SOAP OPERA STAR 2.5 WILSON E. J. MACRAE D. C.
1 ZEE BEAUTY 4.0 DASILVA E. R. PAULO M. P. D.
5 A LITTLE TOO LATE 12.0 MORENO O. DOMINGUEZ S.
3 NICE LADY 6.0 GARCIA D. FAIRLIE S. H.
4 BEST OF ALY 1.6 CONTRERAS L. BARNETT R. E.
2 TICKET TIME 15.0 OLGUIN G. BANKUTI A.
7 CLASSY KATHERINE 10.0 CAMPBELL J. M. ATTARD K.


WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 3 OF 8
8.5f DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES
CLAIMING PURSE: $21000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
2 A MATTEROFSPEAKING 10.0 GARCIA D. CHUBB B.
7 QUICK SPLIT 2.0 CONTRERAS L. LYNCH B. A.
6 COZY CABIN 6.0 STEIN J. PAULO M. P. D.
5 VINDYS LUCKYSTRIKE 12.0 RAMSAMMY E. MATTINE M.
3 ZIPPY LADY 4.0 ALDERSON J. I. WRIGHT M. W.
8 RENAISSANCE GIRL 3.0 CALLAGHAN S. VELLA D. J.
1 LA GRAN EMMA 8.0 BAHEN S. R. ARMATA W. V.



WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 4 OF 8
7.0f DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS
CLAIMING PURSE: $31100
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
9 EUCLID AVENUE 15.0 MORENO O. ATTARD S. C.
6 HANKS HILL 2.0 RAMSAMMY E. ARMATA W. V.
1A TOWN OF TOWNS 4.0 OLGUIN G. PEIRCE R.
2 SANDY GULLY 6.0 ALDERSON J. I. BROOKS C.
5 TYZACH 2.5 CONTRERAS L. MCKNIGHT N.
4 BATHSHEBA STATION 8.0 MCALENEY J. COX G. D.
3 WAR RIDGE 12.0 WELCH Q. HUARTE F.
8 TIME FOR THE STARS 20.0 MARTI A. ATTARD T.
7 MR MOJITO 20.0 RAMIREZ M. R. EZRA D. G.


WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 5 OF 8
5.0f DIRT MAIDENS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
MDN CLAIM PURSE: $20600
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
10 SWEET MARGI 3.0 DASILVA E. R. ASMUSSEN S. M.
3 COOL GOLD 1.4 WILSON E. J. ATTARD S.
9 FORUMS BEST 4.0 GARCIA D. FAIRLIE S. H.
8 SOSEXC 12.0 GONZALEZ A. SILVERA M.
5 ALLWAYS EXQUISITE 30.0 MARTI A. ATTARD T.
7 SECRET ASSAULT 30.0 SOMSANITH N. BARNETT R. E.
1 SOLDIERS PRINCESS 30.0 DEFREITAS C. KRCMAR Z.
6 KITTY AVENUE 20.0 ALDERSON J. I. MACKENZIE J. P.
4 BOLD EIRE 6.0 BAHEN S. R. O'CALLAGHAN D. M.
2 ABBIGAILS COMING 20.0 HUSBANDS N. S. MAYNARD D.



WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 6 OF 8
8.5f DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE-YEAR-OLDS & UPWARD SIRED BY A STALLION STANDING IN ON
NONGRADED STAKE/HANDICAP PURSE: $125000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
2 CLEAR LAKE 3.5 RAMSAMMY E. ATTARD P.
4 DANCE TO THE MOON 2.5 CALLAGHAN S. DOYLE M. J.
9 BUBBLES TO THE TOP 6.0 CONTRERAS L. PAULO M. P. D.
3 VENUS BAY 12.0 HUSBANDS P. CASSE M. E.
6 BEAR ITS TIME 3.0 WILSON E. J. BAKER R.
5 ASKEATON 20.0 MORENO O. HAYES B.
8 MEGAVELLA 10.0 STEIN J. GREER B. E.
7 MOONLIT BEAUTY 8.0 DASILVA E. R. LEBLANC JR. J. P.


WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 7 OF 8
8.5f DIRT MAIDENS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
MDN CLAIM PURSE: $20600
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
7 PERFECT DREAMER 12.0 STEIN J. KATRYAN A. R.
13 DECISIVE 4.0 HUSBANDS P. PIERCE M.
4 BONARDA 15.0 MCALENEY J. VELLA D. J.
6 BEBE AND HENRY 6.0 WELCH Q. CAREY J.
5 LARGO VERDE 10.0 RAMIREZ M. R. EZRA D. G.
11 CONESTRELLAS 3.0 RAMSAMMY E. MCDONALD M. K.
12 TRIP ANGEL 8.0 BAHEN S. R. MATTINE J.
8 AUDREY THERESA 10.0 CONTRERAS L. PHILLIPS C. D.
1 MATHURA 30.0 GARCIA D. SAMULAK J. A.
10 DREAM PATROL 20.0 HUSBANDS N. S. KRCMAR Z.
9 VALID VISA 12.0 ALDERSON J. I. MCKNIGHT N.
14 NUMANS LADY 15.0 CRUISE G. FOURNIER M.
2 RACINDA 20.0 MOORE M. ROWNTREE G. H.
3 SHANNON 30.0 MARTI A. RANFORD K.



WOODBINE 10-05-2011 RACE 8 OF 8
6.0f DIRT ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
MDN CLAIM PURSE: $22000
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
13 WHITEWATER MIST 15.0 WELCH Q. POTTINS J. R.
8 CAITIE MARIE 12.0 HUSBANDS P. LESLIE S.
1 EXECUTIVE MANCER 4.0 RAMOS R. A. D. HARDY J. M.
15 AUTUMNS REIGN 15.0 MARTI A. CHUBB B.
5 INERTIA GIRL 3.0 ALDERSON J. I. MCKNIGHT N.
6 LEENANES LULLABY 12.0 RAMIREZ M. R. SANCHEZ R.
9 THE QUEEN BEE 12.0 CALLAGHAN S. CARTER D.A.
12 DIAVOLA 6.0 CAMPBELL J. M. GANNES G. D.
7 GALLOPN MISS 30.0 BAHEN S. R. MARCO J. D.
3 VALERINA GIRL 30.0 MORENO O. MAYNARD D.
16 GIVEYOURHEADASHAKE 30.0 BAHEN S. R. MCPHERSON A. F.
4 PERIGEES HONOR 10.0 FRASER C. CAPPUCCITTI A.
10 LOPILATO 8.0 DASILVA E. R. PAULO M. P. D.
11 SUADELA 15.0 STEIN J. DELMAS A. M.

Here are the picks based on averages and other data that I have made. All changes have been for scratches, jock change is not noted. I will post my individual picks after watching the post parade. Sorry for the late posting but looking at the post parade is something I like to do. Things I look for in the paddock will be included with selections. Figured people want data so here it is up front. Thanks for reading. And all hail Handiman

[jacklantern]

Actually, I intended a place bet as well, but barely got the win bet in because a co-worker rudely interrupted me with a work-related question (during work time no less).

15.20 to place 7.10 to show you did not back based on the uhhhh, . Did you think about backing em and got a little greedy. I hate that the most. Had a horse that shipped into Belmont from Hoosier just to run on the grass and gets beat a nose at 75-1, I was all in and no bananas :blush: That moment when you go from win to nose can take all the heart right out of guy.
The past is the past. Note to self then get ready for the next race.

[turninforhome10]

2w6s :1:
Think Eurico can get it done on the rail .

[turninforhome10]

When a jock who breaks from the takes back and gets a nice run through like that and goes wide in the stretch, he had nor horse. It seems to me that there are 2 kinds of horses that run in the Ontario breds, those that stay around to keep getting good checks or those that are passing through to better races. The :1: will be at NW3 for awhile. The :5: looked outstanding in the post. When a horse is licking the lips to me it is a sign that they are relaxed and bothered little. Like to see a horse like that when training or round penning as it is a happy horse.

[turninforhome10]

Woodbine 4th.
Based on looks

5s :1:

[turninforhome10]

Will take it as 9.05 almost doubled our money as we get back above 50
1/2 the bankroll gone because of 3 or 4 bad plays
I am gonna get back over 100 tonight and it is gonna have to be very smart plays. Hate being in this position on a Wed night.

[iceknight]

"because a co-worker rudely interrupted me with a work-related question (during work time no less). "

haha, like your humor.. This has happened to be once when I missed placing a bet on a 16-1 and the horse won! lol..

[turninforhome10]

Notes on Paddock Race5
:7: Dont like pony in saddle area. Nervous
:9: Looks dull
:4: Looks sharp and ready
:1: Fat
:2: OK
:3: Not happy in Post
:6: ok
:8: Looks to need one
:10: Happy and fit


2w6s :4: hoping the vibe I get from the :3: is real

Getting a horse to take to the gates is not 100% as this one will need gate schooled

5w10s :10:

[turninforhome10]

Does anybody else hate to see a riders feet out of the irons going to post? It does not instill confidence with me.

[turninforhome10]

Speed on the inside is just amazing as any vibe I had about the 3 is dead wrong and I guess the 9 just looks dull. Betting an Assmussen maiden claimer is stupid and I deserve to take that one
bankroll 35 and we are teetering Going to key on the Stakes race

[turninforhome10]

6th race
5w 10s :9:

[turninforhome10]

My discipline is getting it's butt kicked. The switch from a cage bit to a ring bit made all the differnce in the world for the :6: and my picks were ice cold.
Bankroll 20 and shrinking
Back to the original idea of 2 bets and discipline as the speedy track kills my picks. Pulling tack and switching to Remington.

[turninforhome10]

When you get down and it gets late chasing is a bad idea and since I am trying to 100 it is best now to regroup and start looking down the road.
Thanks for reading along and since Phase II was a bust I am going back to Phase I and I really should just wait and look to Keeneland. When you got nothing going well with the horses it is time to do something else that puts your vibe back on glow.
Thanks for reading along and I will try to give my best insights on the upcoming Keeneland meet

If I were you I would be reading Handimans thread anyway. The man and his steed are unstoppable.

Thanks
Kirk
I will post on Fri Am in HCB Starting Over.

[turninforhome10]

18.50 to show on my top pick in the last to add insult to injury. Ay Carumba

[turninforhome10]

http://deskofbrian.com/wp-content/uploads/man-in-dunce-cap.jpg


Found the dunce cap to wear for picking against Awesome Feather