Betting against Bridgejumpers

[InTheRiver68]

Many thanks up front to Robert Goren, and his thread (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=84416) detailing his odyssey betting against bridgejumpers in 100 races. Robert concentrated on handicapping the race where at least 80% of the show money was bet on an odds-on favorite, handicapping the race, picking a single horse to wager on, and in the end he showed a decent profit for his troubles.

I'm taking a slightly different tack. Today I'm depositing $1,000 into my ADW account, and I'm going (to try) to follow these guidelines:

1) Wager on net-pool-pricing tracks only.
2) Wager on non-harness tracks only.
3) Wager no more than 1% of the show pool.
4) Wager only when the odds-on favorite has at least 80% of the show pool.
---a) When the favorite has 80-85% of the show pool, wager 5% of the bankroll
---b) When the favorite has 85-90% of the show pool, wager 10% of the bankroll
---c) When the favorite has 90-95% of the show pool, wager 15% of the bankroll
---d) When the favorite has >95% of the show pool, wager 20% of the bankroll
---e) Round up the above figures to the nearest $10.
---f) When betting against an entry, wager *half* of the above amounts.
5) No handicapping. Wager on all entrants (up to five, other than the favorite), in inverse proportion to exacta probables. In races where there are more than six entrants, put a nominal amount on all the other horses.
6) Make up other rules as necessary!

Robert Goren scoured the morning lines looking for entrants at even money or shorter. The morning lines are a good place to start, but I think I need to be more flexible and watch for opportunites where scratches or even weather conditions create a strong favorite.

Okay, let's begin...

-InTheRiver68

[davew]

good luck


will you post your bets here?
the reason I ask is I do not quite understand how you are betting

[mistergee]

thanks River, sounds interesting and I wish you the best of luck

[mistergee]

River, forgot to ask if there will be any prewarning each day of the possible jumpers upcoming

[pondman]

Have you read about Dr. Z's full kelly method?

[InTheRiver68]

davew, I'll post a few of them, but probably mostly I'll just summarize my ins and outs for a particular race.

mistergee, if I get a chance to, then yes. Today I already watched some early races at Belmont, Calder, and Woodbine, but none of them panned out. Later today I'll be watching:

5:34 -- SA 4 -- 4/5 in a field of seven
9:55 -- MTR 8 -- 4/5 in a field of seven

pondman, I'm only a little familiar with it.

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

SA R-4 200k on the:7: with 25 min to go. That is what I call a real bridge jumper.

[InTheRiver68]

SA R-4 200k on the:7: with 25 min to go. That is what I call a real bridge jumper.
I'll say. I had to guess at how much to bet; thought it would stay above 90%, so I bet 15% of my bankroll, or $150. It ended up at 87.6%; no biggie.

Of the $150, I had $45 on the :2: and $65 on the :3:.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

MTR 8 ended up at 60% going to post, 70% when the late money rolled in, so no bet.

Stats after 1 race bet:
Wagered: $150
Cashed: $117.75

As Robert Goren says, on to the next day...

-InTheRiver68

[dansan]

man that seems like a grind

[Canarsie]

davew, I'll post a few of them, but probably mostly I'll just summarize my ins and outs for a particular race.

mistergee, if I get a chance to, then yes. Today I already watched some early races at Belmont, Calder, and Woodbine, but none of them panned out. Later today I'll be watching:

5:34 -- SA 4 -- 4/5 in a field of seven
9:55 -- MTR 8 -- 4/5 in a field of seven

pondman, I'm only a little familiar with it.

-InTheRiver68

Ever think of tweeting them before post even if its a brief synopsis? It would be fun to follow along that way.

[Robert Goren]

man that seems like a grindLet me assure you it is a grind. People who think this is a way to make a quick buck will find out pretty fast that there is nothing quick about.
Show, keep this thread about what you want to do. Do not let other posters talk you into doing more than you planning on doing. They can do their own research. A lot of posters here are lazy and want someone else to do all the heavy lifting.

[InTheRiver68]

Been out with the wife all day, celebrating our anniversary and doing some shopping. I see I missed nothing important. There was one (FL 6) that got to 75% of the show pool and finished out of the money, but I probably wouldn't have bet it owing to the lower percentage.

This evening, Mountaineer has two races:

7:25 -- MTR 2 -- #10 is a 4/5 shot in a 10-horse field.
8:40 -- MTR 5 -- #8 is a 4/5 shot in a 10-horse field.

I don't expect either to pan out, but I'll be watching anyway.

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

first MNR horse won at 2/5 but only had I believe a bit above 60%

[InTheRiver68]

Just took a quick cruise through the profiles for tomorrow...

2:04 -- FL 3 -- 3/5 in a field of six

And that's about it. But on Wednesday...

2:03 -- BEL 3 -- 1/4 in a field of five

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

oddly enough MNR horse in the 5th went of at 2/1 from his 4/5 morning line and ran off the board but only took roughly a third of the pool

[ByeByeBuck]

Very interesting thread. Good luck with the results.

I think before net pool pricing, this "system" of betting all the other horses against bridgejumper type favorites, had no chance of long term success when every other horse was only guaranteed to pay $2.10 (or $2.20 at a few tracks) if the favorite was in the money.

Now at least, with this system of betting the entire field against the favorite, when the favorite runs in the money, the loss isn't as bad, and if the second or third choices run out, and some longshots are in there, sometimes it could be a small profit for the race, even though the system technically lost the race.

[Robert Goren]

Very interesting thread. Good luck with the results.

I think before net pool pricing, this "system" of betting all the other horses against bridgejumper type favorites, had no chance of long term success when every other horse was only guaranteed to pay $2.10 (or $2.20 at a few tracks) if the favorite was in the money.

Now at least, with this system of betting the entire field against the favorite, when the favorite runs in the money, the loss isn't as bad, and if the second or third choices run out, and some longshots are in there, sometimes it could be a small profit for the race, even though the system technically lost the race. Net pool pricing is a must if you bet all the other horses in the race. I would not count on making money on a regular basis if the jumper runs in the money. In my trial there were 89 races where the jumper cashed. In only one of then did the show bets show a profit. It was $0.60 on total wager of $14. A sharp handicapper could probably do reasonably well just betting one horse. I showed a profit doing that but the ROI was better betting them all. All that proved was that I am a lousy handicapper when it comes to picking show horses. The downside is sometimes you will run out the money the same time as jumper. It really hurts when that happens.
It may well be profitable to bet with the jumper at times too, but you would really have to pick your spots when you are only getting a $2.10 payout. There is also way to bet all the horses including the jumper in the race and show a small profit if the jumper has a high enough % bet on it. This is pretty rare with a $2.10 payout, but pops in every 10 or so races where the payout is $2.20.

[Dave Schwartz]

What part does the net pool pricing play in this, Robert?

[Robert Goren]

What part does the net pool pricing play in this, Robert? Exactly what do you want to know. I rambled on a bit in my post and don't what part of it you asking about.

[ByeByeBuck]

Net pool pricing is a must if you bet all the other horses in the race. I would not count on making money on a regular basis if the jumper runs in the money. In my trial there were 89 races where the jumper cashed. In only one of then did the show bets show a profit. It was $0.60 on total wager of $14. A sharp handicapper could probably do reasonably well just betting one horse. I showed a profit doing that but the ROI was better betting them all. All that proved was that I am a lousy handicapper when it comes to picking show horses. The downside is sometimes you will run out the money the same time as jumper. It really hurts when that happens.
It may well be profitable to bet with the jumper at times too, but you would really have to pick your spots when you are only getting a $2.10 payout. There is also way to bet all the horses including the jumper in the race and show a small profit if the jumper has a high enough % bet on it. This is pretty rare with a $2.10 payout, but pops in every 10 or so races where the payout is $2.20.

There sure has been lately an unusual amount of bridgejumper favorites running out of the money...more frequently than I ever recall seeing, by far. It used to be sort of "rare" that a bridgejumper horse would run out of the money. Basically it wasn't even that common to see a bridgejumper...it usually only happened in the biggest stakes races for the most part. Now at some tracks there seems to be a bridgejumper race there almost once or twice a week, and at Mountaineer it seems to be almost every night.

Two thoughts on the subject and I would enjoy reading your opinion because you were the OP on that other most interesting thread...and any other member opinions as well.

Reason for more bridgejumpers:

I think it's because of the racinos. There are some gamblers out there who bet 5K or 10K or more at blackjack and craps, other casino games, etc, on each bet, and it's like peanuts to them. You see these types any weekend at any major casino, and this is just my opinion...I think maybe when they need a break from gambling at the tables, and so they walk over and play the horses for a few races, see an "easy" winner, and do the bridgejump thing. So it may not always be "smart money" going into a bridgejump bet...but these racinos have created more bridgejumpers.

Reason heavy favorite horses are running out:

I don't keep tabs on it, maybe heavy favorites are running out of the money at the same rate they always did, just that I'm now noticing it more because of the bridgejump bets. But I think the reason might be is that the purses are so big these days at some tracks, especially racino tracks, that some trainers probably overtrain their horses to go after these big purses as often as possible. Resulting in more top horses stabled at a particular track, such as the top claimers at that track, having form reversals probably because of lameness occuring to a degree during the race when at full racing speed, due to the overtraining.

Just my two cents, and it probably isn't even worth that. :)

[InTheRiver68]

What part does the net pool pricing play in this, Robert?

Net pool pricing creates bigger show prices for the two non-bridgejumped horses that hit the board. Before net pool pricing, those other two horses may have only paid $2.10 or $2.20 to show, but with net pool pricing, they pay a more "normal" amount, which is inversely proportional to the amount bet on them to show (as it should be).

So let's say I'm betting against a horse that has 90% of the show pool in a six-horse field. I bet $20 on every other horse in the race. The favorite wins, and so do two of my five bets.

Before net pool pricing, my two winners pay $2.10 each, so I get back $42.00 for my $100 bet. I lose $58.00.

After net pool pricing, the show prices on the two horses I bet aren't as affected by the huge show wager on the favorite, and they pay (let's say) $2.80 and $3.60. Okay, now my $100 in wagers pays $64.00, and I've only lost $36 on the bet.

Betting against bridgejumpers is a waiting game. How long can I wait before an odds-on favorite with a huge chunk of the show pool runs out of the money and I get a big monster payout? Before net pool pricing I was losing $58 per race, so my $1,000 bankroll is only going to last about 17 races (assuming I bet $100 per race).

Now that net pool pricing is here, and I'm only losing $36 per race, my $1,000 bankroll can last me about 27 races. That's a big difference. When my bankroll lasts me 50% longer and I'm making the same size bets, I've got a much better chance of having action when Prado falls off the 1/5 shot.

And this is why I change the amount I bet based on the percentage of the show pool that the odds-on favorite has. Because of the way the net pool pricing is done, the show prices are *completely* independent of each other. It doesn't matter if the bridgejumper has 75% or 98% of the show pool if it wins; the other horses are going to pay the same amount regardless. But if the bridgejumped horse is out of the money, the bigger percentage of the show pool it had, the bigger the payouts are on the other horses.

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

It does matter some if the jumper has 75% or 98% of the pool wagered on him on what the show prices will be if the jumper cashes. That being said, the prices are a lot better under net pool pricing. As general rule the higher the jumper % the less the other prices will be. Here comes the however, there is point some place that is reached where the show prices actually go up when a certain % is reached and continues to go up as the % rises . That point varies by number of horses in the race. I no longer have access to the research that went into determining that so I can't give you the exact numbers. For all practical purposes, it really doesn't matter anyway.

Without net pool pricing, the % that jumper horse would need to have wager on it would be a higher, but at some point it would still be profitable. I am very interested to see how varying size of bets with as the two main factors change works out in practice.
All of this is math. There are somethings that are not as much math and more handicapping like under what conditions is the jumper less likely to cash. Without access to historical data, it will take vary long time to determine what those conditions are with any degree of certainty.

[Dave Schwartz]

Excellent explanation. Thank you.

Could you continue and actually explain HOW net pool pricing works?


Dave

[ByeByeBuck]

"when Prado falls off the 1/5 shot"

That is just so mean...

...but if we are betting against the bridgejumper, I think we all have to admit we hope that happens right out of the starting gate. ;)

[ByeByeBuck]

I agree that was an excellent explanation.

Betting against bridgejumpers isn't anything new, but I think it does show possible potential to make profits now with net pool pricing. Agree it's still a tough game to beat either way.

The thing mentioned is interesting...others are already betting against bridgejumpers and have been vigorously since net pool pricing began, so that's not new either, but I think sometimes they bet too heavy on the second favorite. I think there is potential for profit in some bridgejumper pools betting against the too heavily bet second favorite in the show pool, so if the second favorite runs out, there still could be a decent profit there, and if the favorite runs out, then it's a really nice score.

The ideal situation for this is the favorite is a speed horse and the second favorite is a speed horse, and despite the duel, the favorite just keeps going because he's too good and wins, but the second favorite gets cooked and backs up badly, and a couple of longshots pass the tired horse. But this also is tough, it doesn't happen as often as you think it might, and sometimes the second favorite is dog tired but still has enough in the tank to run in the money, and then you're really screwed with just one horse with a low show price.

[ByeByeBuck]

"Could you continue and actually explain HOW net pool pricing works?"

I've read about it and I'll be darned if I fully understand it.

If I'm not mistaken it actually is for all the pools including the win and place pools, and the exotics also, but the main thing everyone first noticed about it were the show pools with heavy favorites, and the rest of the horses paying much higher prices than before.

One thing I've noticed in a bad way, is that since net pool pricing, place prices seem to sometimes be lower than they used to be. Maybe I'm just imagining that? I never put a calculator to it but just roughing it out on the board after the race, those horses that used to pay about $4 to place, seem to pay lower and sometimes much lower than before, for place. Sometimes I think I'm getting about $4 for my place ticket, based on looking at the board in the past after the race, and now I sometimes get $3 or $2.80 for the ticket which is a big dissapointment. So I guess it can work both ways. Again, maybe I'm just imagining it, but I don't think so.

[InTheRiver68]

It does matter some if the jumper has 75% or 98% of the pool wagered on him on what the show prices will be if the jumper cashes.

Au contraire, mon frère. I did a quick test using my show price calculator. It didn't matter if the bridgejumped horse had 80%, 90%, or 98%. The prices for the other horses stayed exactly the same. And I'm not talking about the broken prices, even the unbroken prices stayed exactly the same.

Try it yourself, RG. I did a six-horse field, with pools as follows:

1 -- 1000
2 -- 2000
3 -- 3000
4 -- 4000
5 -- 10000
6 -- 80000 (80%)

If the order of finish is 6-5-3, the prices are $2.10, $2.10, $2.80.

Now change just the 6-horse to 380,000 (95%). Prices on the other two don't change, do they?

Now change just the 6-horse to 980,000 (98%). Prices on the other two *still* don't change.

Okay, now change the 6-horse to $200 (1%). Yes, drop it so it's the least-bet horse on the board. The prices on the other two *still* don't change, but now the price on the 6-horse jumps to $21.00.

How about that!

I'm heading out the door for more stuff with the wife, but when I get back I'll get into it a bit more.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

Now I REALLY don't understand it. :faint:

Would love to hear more to understand it better. Thanks! :ThmbUp:

[ByeByeBuck]

Now I REALLY don't understand it. :faint:

Would love to hear more to understand it better. Thanks! :ThmbUp:

Especially if I'm right or not about the place pools, so I can adjust my wagering accordianly.

Thank you! :)

[Robert Goren]

Au contraire, mon frère. I did a quick test using my show price calculator. It didn't matter if the bridgejumped horse had 80%, 90%, or 98%. The prices for the other horses stayed exactly the same. And I'm not talking about the broken prices, even the unbroken prices stayed exactly the same.

Try it yourself, RG. I did a six-horse field, with pools as follows:

1 -- 1000
2 -- 2000
3 -- 3000
4 -- 4000
5 -- 10000
6 -- 80000 (80%)

If the order of finish is 6-5-3, the prices are $2.10, $2.10, $2.80.

Now change just the 6-horse to 380,000 (95%). Prices on the other two don't change, do they?

Now change just the 6-horse to 980,000 (98%). Prices on the other two *still* don't change.

Okay, now change the 6-horse to $200 (1%). Yes, drop it so it's the least-bet horse on the board. The prices on the other two *still* don't change, but now the price on the 6-horse jumps to $21.00.

How about that!

I'm heading out the door for more stuff with the wife, but when I get back I'll get into it a bit more.

-InTheRiver68I am not argue with you about this because my number show only small changes in the least bet horses that it really does not matter much, plus I may have made a mistake. It is not worth going back and redoing my work.

[Robert Goren]

"Could you continue and actually explain HOW net pool pricing works?"

I've read about it and I'll be darned if I fully understand it.

If I'm not mistaken it actually is for all the pools including the win and place pools, and the exotics also, but the main thing everyone first noticed about it were the show pools with heavy favorites, and the rest of the horses paying much higher prices than before.

One thing I've noticed in a bad way, is that since net pool pricing, place prices seem to sometimes be lower than they used to be. Maybe I'm just imagining that? I never put a calculator to it but just roughing it out on the board after the race, those horses that used to pay about $4 to place, seem to pay lower and sometimes much lower than before, for place. Sometimes I think I'm getting about $4 for my place ticket, based on looking at the board in the past after the race, and now I sometimes get $3 or $2.80 for the ticket which is a big dissapointment. So I guess it can work both ways. Again, maybe I'm just imagining it, but I don't think so.Net pool pricing only applies when two or more different horses are paid separately. Most of the time it only effects places and show pools. It effects other pools when there is a dead heat. To explain exactly how it work would bring in the use of math formulas and probably only confuse you more. I know I got a migraine headache when I first started trying to figure it out. If spend enough time trying to google it, you will eventually find an explantion on exactly how it works. Sorry, I do not have one of those sites at my finger tips.

[ByeByeBuck]

Net pool pricing only applies when two or more different horses are paid separately. Most of the time it only effects places and show pools. It effects other pools when there is a dead heat. To explain exactly how it work would bring in the use of math formulas and probably only confuse you more. I know I got a migraine headache when I first started trying to figure it out. If spend enough time trying to google it, you will eventually find an explantion on exactly how it works. Sorry, I do not have one of those sites at my finger tips.

"Net pool pricing only applies when two or more different horses are paid separately."

Thanks for the info - that I did not know. I think I may be right that net pool pricing really hurts place prices on favorites, I guess because there is rarely if ever a minus place pool when there is show betting allowed. So the disproportinate money at different simulcasting tracks which the net pool pricing was invented to account for, gets sucked right up out of the place pool on the favorites. I know that may not make sense, but I see what I see.

I don't understand the math behind it either, but again, I see what I see, but whatever, I guess the important thing is adjusting your betting to whatever rule changes there are, and look for the opportunities.

[jdhanover]

All sites seem to have the same explanation (verbatim) Woodbine has an example (though I couldnt follow it!)

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Champions/Betting/USCommonPool/Pages/NetPoolPricing.aspx

[ByeByeBuck]

All sites seem to have the same explanation (verbatim) Woodbine has an example (though I couldnt follow it!)

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Champions/Betting/USCommonPool/Pages/NetPoolPricing.aspx

Good link - Thanks.

I hadn't read about it in awhile, and that's a better explanation than I remember from before. I used to always look at the place pools for possible wagering discrepencies, but I think it's almost a waste of time now, unless there is a really vast descrepency. But you have to love the show prices as is being discussed, so I don't mind all that much missing out on lost opportunities with the place pools.

[Robert Goren]

The Twinspires blog has an explanation with an example. It probably does the best job.

http://blog.twinspires.com/2011/03/net-pool-pricing-revised.html

[Robert Goren]

a simplified calculation numbers rounded to the closest $

POOL TOTAL
Show: $233,093 ($198,129)
The take out is 15% the number in the () is 0.85 * the Pool Total [ the first number]



6-PORTE BONHEUR
Show: $11,522 ($9,793)

5-INDYANNE

Show: $178,658 ($151,859)

4-INFORMED DECISION
Show: $12,245 ($10,408)
The take out is 15% the number in the () is 0.85 * the amount bet on the horse show [ the first number]

POOL TOTAL
Show: $233,093 ($198,129)
The take out is 15% the number in the () is 0.85 * the Pool Total [ the first number]



Informed Decision
Show odds: (($198,129-$9,793-$151,859-$10,408)/3/$10,408+1) x (1-0.15)-1= 0.55.
A= $198,129-$9,793-$151,859-$10,408=26,069
B = A/3 =$26,069/3=8690
C= B/$10,408= $8690/$10408=$0.833
D= C+1=$0.833+1=1.833
E= D*0.85=1.833*0.85=$1.558
F = rounded to the closest nickel =$1.55 Breakage to a nickel ($1.50 breakage to a dime)
G = F-$1=$1.55-$1.00= $0.55 ($0.50)
Show price =$3.10 ($3.00)

[ByeByeBuck]

The Twinspires blog has an explanation with an example. It probably does the best job.

http://blog.twinspires.com/2011/03/net-pool-pricing-revised.html

"the days of severely discounted place and show payoffs on every horse whenever a chalky choice hits the board have become a thing of the past."

Yes, but that chalky $3.20 winning horse that in the place pool looks like it should pay about $3.00 or $2.80 and it would have before NPP, and a few times I was a little bit ticked when I see $2.20 on the board to place, so it can work both ways. IMHO the thread is going about it the right way, concentrating on the show pools, that makes more sense to me at least.

Again, good luck with the "Betting against Bridgejumpers"

[InTheRiver68]

I don't see much to bet on today, with the exception of BEL's third that I wrote about yesterday.

1:14 -- SUF 2 -- even money, field of six
1:40 -- LAU 2 -- 7/5 entry, field of six
2:03 -- BEL 3 -- 1/4 (Awesome Feather) in a field of five.

Was going to note a couple of evening races, but they're not going to happen.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

I don't see much to bet on today, with the exception of BEL's third that I wrote about yesterday.

1:14 -- SUF 2 -- even money, field of six
1:40 -- LAU 2 -- 7/5 entry, field of six
2:03 -- BEL 3 -- 1/4 (Awesome Feather) in a field of five.

Was going to note a couple of evening races, but they're not going to happen.

-InTheRiver68

2:03 -- BEL 3 -- 1/4 (Awesome Feather) in a field of five.

Looks like more of a public workout than a horse race. If there was win betting only, might be a minus win pool, although it might pay $2.20 or $2.30 to win because of the long layoff.

The BJ's? - anybody's guess, so I'm going to guess $235,479 in the show pool. ;)

...and the BJ's will have 5% more in their account after the race - this is definitely a BJ race that you're wasting money betting against it...IMHO which isn't worth all that much if anything. LOL

[InTheRiver68]

...and the BJ's will have 5% more in their account after the race - this is definitely a BJ race that you're wasting money betting against it...
Two things:

First, even when the odds-on horse has a HUGE percentage of the show pool, the other two horses will still pay decent show prices.

Second, and more importantly, it's the races where the odds-on favorite is a mortal lock, and you clearly need Jesus himself to come down and flip a palate or pull a jock's boot out of a stirrup, that you should be betting with both hands. Stuff happens, and it when it does, I want to be there to cash $100 show tickets.

I'll say it again: Betting against bridgejumpers is all about waiting. Maintain your bankroll, cash $2.60 show tickets, exercise patience, and wait for the planets to align in your favor, because one day they will.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

Two things:

First, even when the odds-on horse has a HUGE percentage of the show pool, the other two horses will still pay decent show prices.

Second, and more importantly, it's the races where the odds-on favorite is a mortal lock, and you clearly need Jesus himself to come down and flip a palate or pull a jock's boot out of a stirrup, that you should be betting with both hands. Stuff happens, and it when it does, I want to be there to cash $100 show tickets.

I'll say it again: Betting against bridgejumpers is all about waiting. Maintain your bankroll, cash $2.60 show tickets, exercise patience, and wait for the planets to align in your favor, because one day they will.

-InTheRiver68

Maybe Sanchez will fall off the horse. ;)

But what I'm saying is the premise of betting the other four horses in this particular race, is just using money to improve the breed. This horse is beyond a mortal lock - you don't see many races like this throughout the year. The BJ'ers should remortgage their houses and pawn their cars to get their money on this horse to show. If this race was on a Saturday or Sunday there would be 500K plus on this horse in the show pool.

[Robert Goren]

Two things:

First, even when the odds-on horse has a HUGE percentage of the show pool, the other two horses will still pay decent show prices.

Second, and more importantly, it's the races where the odds-on favorite is a mortal lock, and you clearly need Jesus himself to come down and flip a palate or pull a jock's boot out of a stirrup, that you should be betting with both hands. Stuff happens, and it when it does, I want to be there to cash $100 show tickets.

I'll say it again: Betting against bridgejumpers is all about waiting. Maintain your bankroll, cash $2.60 show tickets, exercise patience, and wait for the planets to align in your favor, because one day they will.

-InTheRiver68You are right. There are no mortal locks in horse racing. The biggest payoff my trial had was also the race with not only highest %, but the highest amount of actual dollars wagered on the horse of all the races I looked at. 7/3/11 BEL R-9 for the pools see post 171 of my thread.

[InTheRiver68]

Maybe Sanchez will fall off the horse. ;)
Maybe Sanchez will; after all, he's the jock with the lowest win percentage of the whole group, and he has half the mounts of anyone else in the race. And he's on a horse that hasn't raced in eleven months.

Awesome Feather opened up with 96% of a $21,000 show pool.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

Maybe Sanchez will; after all, he's the jock with the lowest win percentage of the whole group, and he has half the mounts of anyone else in the race. And he's on a horse that hasn't raced in eleven months.

Awesome Feather opened up with 96% of a $21,000 show pool.

-InTheRiver68

I guess the long layoff is scaring them away so far, 20K isn't bad but that's a but "wimpy" for this horse in this field, but I think if they see the horse warming up well, they'll be jumping on it bigtime in the show pool.

[ByeByeBuck]

only 22K in there with 7 MTP - very surprising.

[ByeByeBuck]

I can't watch or listen to Belmont.

Only 37K in the pool?

Good luck if you bet against the BJ.

[ByeByeBuck]

Just saw the results...$2.50 to win is like stealing on that horse, and $2.50 to place!!!

Lot of BJ'ers have gone down in the past few months - I guess they're a little bit scared right now and I don't blame them.

[InTheRiver68]

They probably didn't bet her for exactly the reasons I gave. She ended up with $37,948 out of $48,116, or 78.9%. I bet a total of $50 on the race, including $20 to show on the 3 (which paid $2.30) and $5 to show on the 4 ($2.70), so I got back $29.75.

In a little game I like to play called "What would I have won?", if the :2: had run out, I would have cashed my $50 for $190.50. Not much of a win.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

They probably didn't bet her for exactly the reasons I gave. She ended up with $37,948 out of $48,116, or 78.9%. I bet a total of $50 on the race, including $20 to show on the 3 (which paid $2.30) and $5 to show on the 4 ($2.70), so I got back $29.75.

In a little game I like to play called "What would I have won?", if the :2: had run out, I would have cashed my $50 for $190.50. Not much of a win.

-InTheRiver68

I think those betting against the BJers would have to have thought there would have been much more than 37K bet on that horse in the show pool.

[vikingrob]

Just took a quick cruise through the profiles for tomorrow...

2:04 -- FL 3 -- 3/5 in a field of six

And that's about it. But on Wednesday...

2:03 -- BEL 3 -- 1/4 in a field of five

-InTheRiver68

For the record:

10/4/11 at Finger Lakes - entire card canceled

[InTheRiver68]

Before scratches, there are not many to watch today:

1:31 -- BEL 2 -- 6/5, 5-horse field
2:03 -- BEL 3 -- even, 7-horse field
5:20 -- FNO 3 -- 4/5, 8-hose field
11:14 -- REM 9 -- 4/5, 8-entrant field

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Belmont's third just got a lot more enticing, as the even-money shot's biggest contender (at 2/1) has scratched.

-InTheRiver68

[Helles]

I look forward to following this thread as well. I wish you good luck!

[InTheRiver68]

Nothing today ended up bettable.

I just took a look through the profiles for tomorrow, and I see ... not much.

9:05 -- MTR 6 -- 4/5 in a field of seven

Maybe some scratches will liven things up?

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

An amazing bridgejump for Australia, 4th at Caulfield:

$62634 in the show pool - $61115 bet on Black Caviar - it won.

[fmolf]

Have you tested your roi ,handicapping whether the fav is vulnerableto run out? or have you found this aspect to difficult to discern thru the pp's.I have always thought about betting this patient way when i am retired and have time to watch the totes of multiple tracks everyday.....I wish you all the best in your quest.....my guess is it would be easy to miss a fav that runs out unless handicapping is spot on...and bridgejumpers would not jump on horses that look vulnerable.

[InTheRiver68]

There's a few worth looking at today, and many more to keep an eye on for scratches.

1:00 -- BEL 1 -- even money in a field of 9
1:39 -- SUF 3 -- 6/5 entry and an 8/5; watch for scratches
2:33 -- SUF 5 -- even money in a field of 8
3:37 -- LAU 6 -- 3/5 in a 7-horse field
4:45 -- BEL 8 -- six-horse 2yo filly stakes, with a 6/5 and a 7/5. If one scratches...
5:37 -- SA 4 -- 3/5 (The Factor) in a 6-horse GI stakes
9:50 -- REM 6 -- 4/5 in a field of seven

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

5:37 -- SA 4 -- 3/5 (The Factor) in a 6-horse GI stakes
Well, The Factor ended up with a hair less than 80%, but when it was decision-time, I bet $100 in the race because I thought it would end up between 85 and 90%.

He got suckered into a speed duel with 45-1 Sirocco Strike, and ended up out of gas at the end, finishing fourth. Show prices on the 5-4-6 were $6.60, $12.60, $12.40.

$100 in, $390.40 out.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

not bad for 1:08.24 minutes worth of work. ;)

[InTheRiver68]

In for $50 on Remington's 6th. The heavily favored :1: (She's All In) ended up with 81.7% of the pool and won by a small margin, but really it looked like she and Glen Murphy were just toying with the competition.

Of my $50, I had $22 on the :5: ($2.60) and $7 on the :4: ($2.80); got back $38.40.

My bankroll has risen to $1,226.30. My betting has been in multiples of $50, but since I'm up above $1,200 I'll change it to multiples of $60 (That is, $60 for an 80-85% jumper, $120 for an 85-90% jumper, etc.).

So far:

Four races bet, including one out-of-the-money favorite.
Total wagers of $350. Total cashes of $576.30.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

not bad for 1:08.24 minutes worth of work. ;)
If only. It took me a week to find four races to bet on, and I think I got pretty lucky that one of those four odds-on favorites was off the board. I think that's an unexpectedly good return so far, and I don't imagine it's going to be that easy over the long haul.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Looked at today's (10/9) profiles, and I see nothing at the moment. Maybe scratches will help.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Happy Columbus Day, people. Full slate of cards today, but not much in the way of 'jumpers.

1:39 -- SUF 3 -- even money in a seven-horse field
3:00 -- SUF 6 -- 4/5 in a nine horse field
5:03 -- SA 3 -- 4/5 in a six-horse field (merits extra attention because they're 2-year-olds)

I really don't see the Suffolk races panning out, but I'll be watching the babies at Santa Anita.

-InTheRiver68

edit: I suppose as long as I'm sorting through profiles, I may as well look at Tuesday's...

3:54 -- FE 8 -- even money in a field of six, but I've never seen a jumper at Fort Erie, so I'm not holding my breath

Aaaaand, that's it. Delaware's profile sheet isn't available yet, but their entries don't look promising.

[Robert Goren]

Happy Columbus Day, people. Full slate of cards today, but not much in the way of 'jumpers.

1:39 -- SUF 3 -- even money in a seven-horse field
3:00 -- SUF 6 -- 4/5 in a nine horse field
5:03 -- SA 3 -- 4/5 in a six-horse field (merits extra attention because they're 2-year-olds)

I really don't see the Suffolk races panning out, but I'll be watching the babies at Santa Anita.

-InTheRiver68

edit: I suppose as long as I'm sorting through profiles, I may as well look at Tuesday's...

3:54 -- FE 8 -- even money in a field of six, but I've never seen a jumper at Fort Erie, so I'm not holding my breath

Aaaaand, that's it. Delaware's profile sheet isn't available yet, but their entries don't look promising. Where do you get access to the pools for FE? Twinspires does not have them or least they didn't July although they take bets from there. I figured it had because that FE did not make that information available.

[InTheRiver68]

Where do you get access to the pools for FE? Twinspires does not have them or least they didn't July although they take bets from there. I figured it had because that FE did not make that information available.
I can see pools on both ebetUSA and XpressBet.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Turned out I missed the 2yo race from SA. I just zoned on it. Looks like the favorite won and the clear second choice was out of the money, so I was probably better off not playing it.

But yesterday I did bet the 6th at SUF. I saw late show money come in on the 3rd race, and while that one didn't get to 80% I watched the 6th more closely.

The 6th ended up with 84.3% of the $17,310 show pool on Shoe Freak Marlene. She won, and the other two on the board paid $3.60 and $7.00. Of my $60 wagered, I won back $42.70.

Five bridgejumper races bet so far, one favorite out of the money. Current bankroll: $1,209.00

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

3:00 -- Suf 6 -- 4/5 in a field of 6 maidens.

And that's about it.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

3:00 -- Suf 6 -- 4/5 in a field of 6 maidens.

The morning-line favorite, Tiz a Lil Meatball, was indeed heavily wagered in the show pool. He ended up with $37,663 out of $42,626 (88.4%). I should have bet $120, but I over-bet because at the time I had to decide, it looked like he was going to just get a ton thrown at him, *and* I duplicated the bets once too many times. Of my $300, I had $75 on the 6 and $75 on the 8, so I got back $165. Not really a good showing, and it was my fault, too.

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

keep swingin River, we will get one of these Jumpers off the board

[ByeByeBuck]

Seems like they always overbet these horses in the show pools at the $2.20 tracks. Exact same race at a $2.10 track and I'd betcha there would be less than 5K on this race in the show pool.

[InTheRiver68]

1:10 -- Lau 1 -- 3/5 entry in a field of 6 entrants. Probably only half of the entry will go, though.
7:07 -- SA 7 -- even money in a field of six.
7:40 -- Hoo 6 -- even money in a field of seven.
8:58 -- Hoo 9 -- even money in a field of eight.

Really, I'm not expecting much of anything today. The Laurel race is too early to get any money, the Santa Anita is marginal at best, and the two Hoosiers probably won't get any more than $2,000 in the show pools.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

1:00 -- Bel 1 -- 6/5 and 8/5 in a field of five. Not likely, but worth watching anyway.
3:37 -- Lau 6 -- 4/5 entry in a field of 8
4:37 -- Lau 8 -- 7/5 in a field of 7, but I got a funny feelin'...
4:11 -- Bel 7 -- even money in a field of seven. Also not likely unless there are a couple scratches.
4:43 -- Bel 8 -- there's a MTO horse at 3/5 in a field of 11, but of course if they're off the turf then half the field disappears...
6:06 -- SA 5 -- even money in a field of 9.
9:05 -- Mtr 6 -- 4/5 entry in a field of 8 MSW's.
10:25 -- CT 8 -- Rapid Redux goes for #18, and is 2/5 in a field of 7 at a WV track ($2.20 minimum). Katy, bar the door.
9:22 -- Rem 5 -- 3/5 entry in a field of 10.

Obviously, the big draw here is the Rapid Redux race. I expect the show pools will be absolutely hammered, but because it's going to draw a lot of attention, I also expect the bet-againsters will be out in full force. My guess is that RR will open up with five figures on him to show, and will end up with between 80-85% of it.

-InTheRiver68

[iceknight]

1:00 -- Bel 1 -- 6/5 and 8/5 in a field of five. Not likely, but worth watching anyway.
3:37 -- Lau 6 -- 4/5 entry in a field of 8
4:37 -- Lau 8 -- 7/5 in a field of 7, but I got a funny feelin'...
4:11 -- Bel 7 -- even money in a field of seven. Also not likely unless there are a couple scratches.
4:43 -- Bel 8 -- there's a MTO horse at 3/5 in a field of 11, but of course if they're off the turf then half the field disappears...
6:06 -- SA 5 -- even money in a field of 9.
9:05 -- Mtr 6 -- 4/5 entry in a field of 8 MSW's.
10:25 -- CT 8 -- Rapid Redux goes for #18, and is 2/5 in a field of 7 at a WV track ($2.20 minimum). Katy, bar the door.
9:22 -- Rem 5 -- 3/5 entry in a field of 10.

Obviously, the big draw here is the Rapid Redux race. I expect the show pools will be absolutely hammered, but because it's going to draw a lot of attention, I also expect the bet-againsters will be out in full force. My guess is that RR will open up with five figures on him to show, and will end up with between 80-85% of it.

-InTheRiver68

pls dont bet more than $2 against Rapid Redux as I (*God*) am doing everything withing my powers to make him win. I am also holding Satan on a tight leash trying to send him to Mars for the next few days. So, there.. I told you before!!

hey, thanks for posting the picks!! good luck!

[Robert Goren]

No show wagering on the BEL 1 because of a scratch. The BEL 8 is off the turf. 3/5 ML generally brings out the jumpers. It will be interesting to see if couple of jumpers show up here in kind of an unusual circumstance.

[Robert Goren]

BEL is speeding up their post times again. Race 7 is 16 minutes ahead of schedule.

[InTheRiver68]

4:11 -- Bel 7 -- even money in a field of seven. Also not likely unless there are a couple scratches.
Interesting. Despite hanging out around 1/9, 1/5, and 1/4 for most of the time leading up to post, the bridgejumpers never really went for Dust and Diamonds. At post, she had 12k of 18k (67%), and after the last cycle, it was 21k of 33k (63%).

She just looked to me like she was overbet in the win pool, so I bet $5 to win on her four biggest contenders (1,3,5, and 6). She ended up third, and my $20 bet got me back $50. Of course, that doesn't count in the stats, but it does go to show you how monitoring the show pools can show you a different angle...

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

BEL is speeding up their post times again. Race 7 is 16 minutes ahead of schedule.
They sped up their whole day, and Monmouth and Laurel followed suit.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

10:25 -- CT 8 -- Rapid Redux goes for #18, and is 2/5 in a field of 7 at a WV track ($2.20 minimum). Katy, bar the door.
Charles Town appears to have closed the show pool.

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

Charles Town appears to have closed the show pool.

-InTheRiver68
wow, cancelled show in a 7 horse field, cant remember the last time I saw that happen

[ByeByeBuck]

wow, cancelled show in a 7 horse field, cant remember the last time I saw that happen

Looks like the entry was scratched.

Canceling show wagering in a six horse field? That is just plain chicken s**t from Charles Town. They can't throw the railbirds a bone once in awhile? :mad:

[ByeByeBuck]

first click - looks like they might bridgejump a bit anyway for place.

$4,800 so far in the place pool. Probably would have been 25K in the show pool on the first click.

[ByeByeBuck]

This just isn't the right race, nor the right horse, to bet against bridgejumpers.

I'm going to grab the easy 10% on my money to place. I can then buy myself a hot dog and a soda. :D

[lamboguy]

with the scratch of scooter's entry, the chances of this guy not making the lead is about 1 in 40. it can happen, but you need 40-1 to make the bet against this guy worthwhile if i am right. if scooter's horse's were in i would bet against the streak too, he would be about a 1 in ten chance of not getting to the front. this race got no other speed at all

[mistergee]

has about 90% of the place pool

[InTheRiver68]

The show pool appeared to have been closed even before Charles Town got close to officially opening their pools (which tracks do after taking out the early scratches).

They probably axed the pool at the request of the sites taking their signal. As if it wasn't expensive enough to pay out winners in a negative break situation, it's even *more* expensive when you have to pay out an extra 5% to the winners.

With 4mtp, RR has 88% of the place pool.

I think I'm going to bet into this one. I don't like place jumpers, but it could be interesting!

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

looks great on the track - I'm in the food line already. :)

[ByeByeBuck]

$2.80 to win? Stealing.

[InTheRiver68]

I put $60 into the race, including $26 on the clear second choice, the :4: , so I got $28.60 back.

So far, I've bet seven races for a total of $770, and gotten back $822.60.

-InTheRiver68

[Prairie Bettor]

$2.80 to win? Stealing.

Today was stealing...

Sept 16 was Christmas... ($3.20)

thank you very much

[ByeByeBuck]

I forget the date, but there was a nice bet against place bridgejumpers at Belmont awhile back not too long ago. Both horses paid about $30+ if I recall correctly. I think it was a four horse field because I don't think Belmont has ever scratched show betting in a five horse field or more, that I have ever seen.

[vikingrob]

wow, cancelled show in a 7 horse field, cant remember the last time I saw that happen

I remember in 1996 Arlington did not offer either place or show wagering in Cigar's race, and that was a field of 10. The minimum payout on a $2 bet in Illinois was $2.10.

[InTheRiver68]

Well, it's Saturday, and everybody and his damn brother is running, but I'm out a lot with the wife today so I really need to whittle down the choices to some clear and obvious possibilities.

12:45 -- Suf 1 -- 4/5 in a field of eight.
2:04 -- Bel 3 -- 4/5 in a field of seven New-York-cheap maiden claimers.
3:23 -- Thd 4 -- Odd one...a three-horse entry at 8/5, as well as a 4/5 shot, in a five-entry field. Curious to see what this one looks like after scratches.
4:10 -- CRC 9 -- 4/5 in a field of seven, the Spend A Buck Stakes
7:35 -- LS 1 -- even money in a field of six
7:59 -- LS 2 -- a 6/5 and an 8/5 in a field of five other double-digit longshots.
8:23 -- LS 3 -- even money in a field of six
8:47 -- LS 4 -- 4/5 in a field of seven

I don't know what I'll be around to see because my schedule is in flux, but if one of these ends up working out, I hope one of you guys is there to clean up!

-InTheRiver68

[Cholly]

Interesting. Despite hanging out around 1/9, 1/5, and 1/4 for most of the time leading up to post, the bridgejumpers never really went for Dust and Diamonds. At post, she had 12k of 18k (67%), and after the last cycle, it was 21k of 33k (63%).

She just looked to me like she was overbet in the win pool, so I bet $5 to win on her four biggest contenders (1,3,5, and 6). She ended up third, and my $20 bet got me back $50. Of course, that doesn't count in the stats, but it does go to show you how monitoring the show pools can show you a different angle...

-InTheRiver68

Nice use of the bridgejumpers’ verdict that Dust and Diamonds was no mortal lock to show…you went back up that stream to opine “if they’re right, she’s a good chance of not winning either”. But the real cheese was the $148 exacta…if D&D was truly no lock to show, then there had to be a fair chance of her not placing.

I’m enjoying your adventure—thanks for taking us along for the ride. The most logical outcome is that after a period of your battling the bridgejumpers, seeing what they do right and what they do wrong, you’ll decide to become a bridgejumper yourself.

Maybe this time next year, the rest of us will be trying to push you off some viaduct!

[showbet]

wow, cancelled show in a 7 horse field, cant remember the last time I saw that happen
It doesn't happen too often in thoroughbred racing, but it occurs frequently in harness racing. There was no show wagering in the race where See You At Peelers had her win streak broken, even though it was a 9-horse field. SYAP finished 6th in that race. Yonkers and Monticello routinely cancel show wagering on Sire Stakes races, or when they think there is any chance of bridge jumper bets, even if the race has a full field. Even the larger tracks (such as Meadowlands or Woodbine) oftentimes don't offer show wagering on races where there is a prohibitive favorite.

Freehold just ran a race with a 5-horse field, and because there was a heavy favorite (he went off at 1-5), there was no place or show wagering on the race. The 1-5 horse finished last.

[Highvoltage]

5 mtp belmont race 3 80% on the :6:

[InTheRiver68]

5 mtp belmont race 3 80% on the :6:
She ended up with a hair under 80%, but I had already bet $60 against her, including $6 on the 5 ($5.70) and $16 on the 7 ($3.20), so I got back $42.70.

The rest of the field did their level best to keep her from winning, but she squeezed through anyway...

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Two minutes to post at Thistledown, and the 3 has 94% of 20k.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

At Thistledown, the :3: ended up with $31,968 out of $34,256 in the show pool, or 93.3%. The :3: ran out of gas at the end and the :1a: took it. The :2: got up for third as the :5: , who looked competitive, apparently spit the bit and may not have finished.

I put $180 into the race, including $80 on the :1a: and $30 on the :2: , so I got back $123.

My bankroll is now back down below $1,000, at $978.30.

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

It doesn't happen too often in thoroughbred racing, but it occurs frequently in harness racing. There was no show wagering in the race where See You At Peelers had her win streak broken, even though it was a 9-horse field. SYAP finished 6th in that race. Yonkers and Monticello routinely cancel show wagering on Sire Stakes races, or when they think there is any chance of bridge jumper bets, even if the race has a full field. Even the larger tracks (such as Meadowlands or Woodbine) oftentimes don't offer show wagering on races where there is a prohibitive favorite.

Freehold just ran a race with a 5-horse field, and because there was a heavy favorite (he went off at 1-5), there was no place or show wagering on the race. The 1-5 horse finished last.
didnt realize until recently tracking these jumpers that the pools at most harness tracks are atrocious

[InTheRiver68]

Looked at tomorrow's profiles, and I really only see one...

7:00 -- Mtr 1 -- 3/5 in a field of 10.

-InTheRiver68

[ByeByeBuck]

Might be one setting up in the first at the Mountain. Still 90 MTP and no BJer yet, but their already nibbling at it a little bit in the pools. But I'm not sure of the horse because I haven't looked at the form yet...3/5 morning line.

[ByeByeBuck]

Oh just noticed - you already mentioned it. :)

[mistergee]

Might be one setting up in the first at the Mountain. Still 90 MTP and no BJer yet, but their already nibbling at it a little bit in the pools. But I'm not sure of the horse because I haven't looked at the form yet...3/5 morning line.
not a jumper, but he did run off the board. I think he had a little over 50% of the show pool

[lamboguy]

that horse had a hole in him as big as the grand canyon

[mistergee]

Must have Lambo, thought it interesting in the very next race the fave who had broke his maiden by 26 lengths and run a nice speed fig, came right back for 5k and won by about 20 lengths. I guess they dont worry about them getting claimed

[ByeByeBuck]

not a jumper, but he did run off the board. I think he had a little over 50% of the show pool

The perfect horse to bet against in a bridgejump race, but the big boys with the real money didn't get sucked in on a horse like that, not even for $2.20 - likely the 50% compromised mostly railbirds who will be eating franks & beans for dinner tonight.

I "watched" the race - wasn't worth betting or betting against with only 3K wound up in the show pool, and I didn't anticipate the big boys coming in late last second in the show pool on a horse like that.

[mistergee]

just so i know what do you mean when you say "they wouldnt bet on a horse like that"

[lamboguy]

Must have Lambo, thought it interesting in the very next race the fave who had broke his maiden by 26 lengths and run a nice speed fig, came right back for 5k and won by about 20 lengths. I guess they dont worry about them getting claimed
uncle lou wants all his horses claimed because he trains off a farm in ohio and doesn't want to have to pay to keep them all during the winter after the mountain closes its doors for 3 months. i like that guy alot, he knows how to get a baby ready and develop them so they last and compete. he buys his horses cheap from people that have no idea what they are doing. he straightens them out and brings them to mountaineer and wins at about a 40% win ratio without drugs or any other voo-doo method of training horses.

[ByeByeBuck]

just so i know what do you mean when you say "they wouldnt bet on a horse like that"

A 3yo horse coming off races with good form at a higher class at better tracks, including Saratoga, and suddenly the horse is in a bottom claimer at Mountain? If that doesn't usually spell a lame horse then I'm not sure what does.

The owner could be trying to steal a race here to get the horse eligible for starter allowances, but this wasn't the right type of horse to do that with to risk getting a young, sound horse claimed.

While it could have won the race, and gone lame later on, but even if you bridgejump for $2.20, you still have to get 10 out of 11 just to break even, and no way this type of horse, in this situation, runs in the money 10 out of 11 times.

[mistergee]

A 3yo horse coming off races with good form at a higher class at better tracks, including Saratoga, and suddenly the horse is in a bottom claimer at Mountain? If that doesn't usually spell a lame horse then I'm not sure what does.

The owner could be trying to steal a race here to get the horse eligible for starter allowances, but this wasn't the right type of horse to do that with to risk getting a young, sound horse claimed.

While it could have won the race, and gone lame later on, but even if you bridgejump for $2.20, you still have to get 10 out of 11 just to break even, and no way this type of horse, in this situation, runs in the money 10 out of 11 times.
Thanks, I agree and good explanation. Those are the type I wish they would jump on

[mistergee]

uncle lou wants all his horses claimed because he trains off a farm in ohio and doesn't want to have to pay to keep them all during the winter after the mountain closes its doors for 3 months. i like that guy alot, he knows how to get a baby ready and develop them so they last and compete. he buys his horses cheap from people that have no idea what they are doing. he straightens them out and brings them to mountaineer and wins at about a 40% win ratio without drugs or any other voo-doo method of training horses.
thanks for the insight into the MNR trainer Lambo. I guess they may be getting afraid to claim from him though with those lofty stats kind of ala claiming off of a Jaime Ness and the like maybe

[Robert Goren]

The first thing you will learn if you follow this for a while. Bridge jumpers aren't stupid. They almost never wager on a horse that looks like it could have a "hole" in it. I took one look at PPs on the Mountaineer horse and knew no one would wagered large amounts of money on it to show. It generally takes 2 things to get a bridge jumper, a weak relative field and what appears to be a good sound horse. I have yet to see a bridge jumper on a horse that I had questions about the soundness of the horse on what I saw in the PPs.

[InTheRiver68]

I agree with RG. You can almost always look back at a failed odds-on favorite and *still* say, "didn't expect *that*!" You'll frequently find it's caused by poor decision-making on the jock's part ('why yes, I think I *can* run 21.1 and 42.4 with this 50:1 rabbit and still win this 8-furlong race!"), or a bad trip where they got forced out or forced back, or a flipped palate, or some unforseen reason that the horse just didn't show up that day.

Or it can be caused, of course, by three horses that all suddenly blossom at once. :)

By the way, if you've got a big bankroll and you're looking to increase it by 5%, go take a nap. Nothing to see here today, come back tomorrow...

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Really sparse today, before scratches...

9:05 -- Mtr 6 -- even money in a field of nine

-InTheRiver68

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Really sparse today, before scratches...

9:05 -- Mtr 6 -- even money in a field of nine

-InTheRiver68

Actually you missed:

LRL-1:40-#2-4/5 ML

6 horse field X'd down to 5,fast track,odds-on fave ran dead last,but just under 70% in show pool.

[InTheRiver68]

Actually you missed:

LRL-1:40-#2-4/5 ML

6 horse field X'd down to 5,fast track,odds-on fave ran dead last,but just under 70% in show pool.
Oops. Gotta pay more attention.

Today:

1:39 -- Suf 3 -- 3/5 in a seven-horse field.
4:21 -- Keen 7 -- even money in a field of nine.
7:14 -- Hoo 5 -- 4/5 in a field of eight.

For obvious reasons, the Suffolk race is the one to watch today.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

1:39 -- Suf 3 -- 3/5 in a seven-horse field.

Well, good news and bad news.

Since my bankroll started the day below $1,000, I dropped back to $50 increments. And since the money in the show pool didn't show up until late, I had to make a guess as to whether the odds-on would be bet, and also whether it would reach the $5,000 or $10,000 plateau I need to make a $50 or $100 bet.

The :7: ended up with $8,562 of $10,104, or 84.7%.

I ended up betting $50 on the race, mostly on a hunch that the late money would be heavy. I had $5 on the :2: and $15 each on the :1: and :3: . I got $263.50 back.

It was interesting to note that up until post, there was a LOT of money to *place* on the 7 horse. It disappeared at one point, when I wasn't looking. I think there may have been $4,000 worth of cancelled place wagers on it.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Today's notable races:

2:03 -- Bel 3 -- 3/5 in a field of six
8:32 -- Hoo 8 -- 4/5 in a field of eleven

With yesterday's rains taking every track east of Portland Meadows off the turf, there may be a number of shortened off-turf fields, so keep an eye out.

After betting on ten bridgejumper races (with two of those finishing out of the money), my bankroll is up to $1,191.80 (from $1,000 on 10/2).

-InTheRiver68

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Today's notable races:

2:03 -- Bel 3 -- 3/5 in a field of six
8:32 -- Hoo 8 -- 4/5 in a field of eleven
-InTheRiver68

Also:

4:31-SA -R2-#2-1/1 in 6 horse field
5:30-HOO-R1-#9-1/1 in 10 horse field

[salty]

Laurel R5
Place bridgejumping possible
4 horse field
ML
:4: 20-1
:6: 20-1
:7: 5-2 Trained by Jamie Ness
:8: 15-1

[showbet]

8:32 -- Hoo 8 -- 4/5 in a field of eleven

5:30-HOO-R1-#9-1/1 in 10 horse field
Due to weather conditions, racing has been canceled for tonight (Thurs., Oct. 20!) (http://www.hoosierpark.com/racing.html)

[salty]

Laurel R5
Place bridgejumping possible
4 horse field
ML
:4: 20-1
:6: 20-1
:7: 5-2 Trained by Jamie Ness
:8: 15-1

hmm i thought that one would have taken a lot more money than that

[InTheRiver68]

4:31-SA -R2-#2-1/1 in 6 horse field

Apparently the big-bankroll fellas thought there was something not right with him, too. He finished dead last, but only had less than half of the show pool.

As I was getting my wagers saved for the race, in case a whole bunch of money came in on him, I bet $2 to show on everything (except the :2: ) accidentally. I got back $15. :D

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

1:40 -- Lau 2 -- 4/5 in a field of six.
4:31 -- SA 2 -- even money in a field of five
7:50 -- Mtr 3 -- even money in a field of seven

Good luck today, everyone.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

1:40 -- Lau 2 -- 4/5 in a field of six.
4:31 -- SA 2 -- even money in a field of five
7:50 -- Mtr 3 -- even money in a field of seven
I ended up betting $60 in the Laurel race, and got back $36.40, even though the favorite only ended up with 74% of the pool. I misjudged the late money. The Santa Anita race was scratched down to four and the morning line even money shot went off at 4/5, finishing last. Despite being even money in a field that was scratched down to four, he just didn't get any support in the place pool, so the jumpers obviously thought he wasn't up to the task and avoided him. And the Mountaineer race didn't pan out.

Eleven races bet for a total of $1,120, two jumpers out of the money, bankroll up to $1,168.20.

Today:

1:22 -- Hoo 3 -- even money in a field of 12. Probably not worth looking at without a lot of scratches.
2:06 -- Suf 4 -- even money *entry* in a field of 7.
3:32 -- Wood 6 -- even money in a field of six.
5:02 -- SA 3 -- 3/5 in a field of six, the Anoakia Stakes for *two-year olds*.
5:42 -- Hoo 13 -- even money in a field of 10.

Santa Anita will be the hot ticket, unless it scratches down to four or the favorite scratches. I love betting against in races for two-year-olds.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

The first three races didn't amount to anything.

For SA's 3rd, I thought we'd end up with between 85% and 90%, so I was in for $150, including $10 on the :5: and $40 on the :1: . My return was only $74.00, so that wasn't that good of one.

The favorite ended up with almost exactly 85% of the show pool.

As a side bet, though, I put $10 to win on the :1: and :6: , so I cashed for $82.00 there. :)

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

2:04 -- Bel 3 -- 6/5 in a field of six
2:56 -- Phl 7 -- even money in a field of seven
5:53 -- GG 5 -- even money in a field of eight or less
7:25 -- Mtr 2 -- there's a 6/5 and an 8/5 in a field of ten. If either one gets scratched...
9:55 -- Mtr 8 -- 6/5 in a short field of six
...and if you're up really late...
10:55 -- LosAl 7 -- even money in a field of six 2yo QH's

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Nothing panned out yesterday, and it seems that today we've already missed a kind-of-bridgejumper.

In Suffolk's 1st, the even-money morning line favorite actually ended up at even money, but garnered $13,552 out of $17,234 (78.6%) of the show money. She finished out of the money, and the second and third betting choices finished 1-2. Had I bet it, I'd have to guess I would have had $17 on the 1 and 8, and $2 on the longshot 4, out of a total of $60. This would have been a total cash of $333.40.

But, I didn't bet it, because I was busy doing laundry and shaking my head listening to flat-tax proposals. Oh, well.

There's an even-money M/L favorite in the second race, but it's not getting nearly the attention, with 4mtp.

Other than that...

4:20 -- PM 4 -- 4/5 in a field of seven.

So, it appears that I missed the one good opportunity today.

-InTheRiver68

[lamboguy]

i just listened to richard perloff, and to me he made the perfect case why betting against bridgejumpers is a waste of time.

in today's 1st race at sulfolk, it was an 8 horse field. he said he would have played every horse in the race against the heavy money for a cost of $14, based on $2 bets.the heavy money horse wound up running out and the best possible horse ran third and paid $44 to show. the other 2 paid $7.60 and $9.40 for a total return of $61. so with the best result you wound up getting about 7/2 for your money. these heavy money run out maybe once in 9 times on best case. i have no idea how you can show a profit with those payoffs. i guess the moral here, that you still need some handicapping ability to possibly show a profit.

[Robert Goren]

$61.00 was well below the average (and the median) I had in my trial. The other thing is you don't lose the entire bet. By betting $2 on every horse except the jumper would have lost $4.54 per race in my trial in which the jumper cash. The key is at what % on the jumper you move in on. My trial showed the jumper cashed 90 times out 102. If the track is losing money on the races somebody has to be making it. I will say this. These races do not occur often enough to make living betting on them. You are also somewhat limited in the amount of money you can bet in some races.

[InTheRiver68]

lamboguy, if Perloff was only betting the same amount on each of the other horses, he would have been hard-pressed to show a profit. Ideally, you handicap the race and determine who has the best shot of hitting the board. Spread your wagers so you concentrate on those horses...not to the exclusion of the other, longer shots, but if there's a 2:1 shot and a bunch of 15:1's, you load up on the 2:1.

This gives you bigger payouts when you do hit, and when the odds-on horse is in the money, you get more of your money back if the lower-odds entrants show up in the money, too. And that's the important thing, as Robert Goren noted...you don't lose your bet when you're betting against a bridgejumper. Two of your wagers usually win! I've said it before and I'll say it again...it's all about biding your time until the planets align and you get to cash $100 show tickets.

(Also, I don't claim to have any handicapping edge, so I chose sort of a hybrid method, as I stated in the first post. I bet in inverse proportion to the exacta probables. Lower exacta probables on a particular horse, bigger wagers, and vice-versa.)

-InTheRiver68

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Today,

2:38-LRL-R4-#3-ML-3/5
3:07-LRL-R5-#7-ML-1/1
9:30-MNR-R7-#6-ML-3/5

[lamboguy]

lamboguy, if Perloff was only betting the same amount on each of the other horses, he would have been hard-pressed to show a profit. Ideally, you handicap the race and determine who has the best shot of hitting the board. Spread your wagers so you concentrate on those horses...not to the exclusion of the other, longer shots, but if there's a 2:1 shot and a bunch of 15:1's, you load up on the 2:1.

This gives you bigger payouts when you do hit, and when the odds-on horse is in the money, you get more of your money back if the lower-odds entrants show up in the money, too. And that's the important thing, as Robert Goren noted...you don't lose your bet when you're betting against a bridgejumper. Two of your wagers usually win! I've said it before and I'll say it again...it's all about biding your time until the planets align and you get to cash $100 show tickets.

(Also, I don't claim to have any handicapping edge, so I chose sort of a hybrid method, as I stated in the first post. I bet in inverse proportion to the exacta probables. Lower exacta probables on a particular horse, bigger wagers, and vice-versa.)

-InTheRiver68that certainly could work, the way perloff contends doesn't though

[InTheRiver68]

Today,

2:38-LRL-R4-#3-ML-3/5
3:07-LRL-R5-#7-ML-1/1
9:30-MNR-R7-#6-ML-3/5
Thanks. I didn't see anything else.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Let me try to get ahead of the game. Tomorrow:

2:03 -- Bel 3 -- 6/5 in a field of five MSW's.
3:00 -- PM 1 -- even money in a field of six.

Aaaand that's about it. There are a bunch of races in Ohio and Delaware where there's a 7/5 or 8/5 in a shorter field, but until we see the scratches, they're not worth mentioning.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

2:38-LRL-R4-#3-ML-3/5
The odds-on favorite ended up with $20,642 out of $23,724 (87.0%) of the show pool, and won. I had $97 on the rest of the field, including $39 on the 7 and $14 on the 4, getting back $67.80.

3:07-LRL-R5-#7-ML-1/1
This is a wide-open turf race, and the morning line favorite opened up as the third choice with all of $42 in the show pool. I'm not expecting it to go anywhere, but I'll keep an eye on it.

9:30-MNR-R7-#6-ML-3/5
I'm setting my alarm for this one. Only one other horse looks to contend, and the other entrants will be 10:1 or longer...

-InTheRiver68

[lamboguy]

you guys must not think they bet anything at ZIA. check out your 5th race

[InTheRiver68]

you guys must not think they bet anything at ZIA. check out your 5th race
Well, they *don't* bet anything at Zia.

I saw the race earlier, but with no clear standout in a five horse field, I ignored it. It was a surprise that they left the show pool open after a scratch.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

The odds-on favorite in the 7th race finished second. I overestimated the pool and bet $100, but he only got $23,181 out of $28,155 (82.3%).

Of my $100, I had $48 on the clear second choice, the 7, and $14 on the third-place :3:. I got back $75.20.

Of the 14 races I've bet on so far, this is actually the first Mountaineer race.

And we sorta missed one in the race just before, where the crowd bet $8,020 out of $10,293 to show on the 6/5 M/L favorite, who ended up going off at 2/5, and running 5th. Turns out that would have been a better use for my money.

Fourteen races so far, $1,467 in wagers, two favorites out of the money. $1,000 bankroll now at $1,038.20

-InTheRiver68

[lamboguy]

not that long ago before the net pool pricing, when show pools blew up i remember seeing plenty of $100 show payoffs. i don't remember the last time i saw one that paid that much.

[InTheRiver68]

I haven't looked over tomorrow's completely, but here's a heads-up for those interested...

3:47 -- Lrl 6 -- Rapid Redux goes for his 19th in a row in (go figure) starter allowance company. He's 3/5 in a field of *five*. Laurel really should consider removing show wagering, but I'm hoping they don't!

-InTheRiver68

[showbet]

not that long ago before the net pool pricing, when show pools blew up i remember seeing plenty of $100 show payoffs. i don't remember the last time i saw one that paid that much.
Here's one.

[lamboguy]

Here's one.
that's a good one!

[InTheRiver68]

Three bridgejumper races today, all within a half-hour of each other.

In Laurel's 5th, a spate of scratches after the race was taken off the turf left five betting interests, including an entry that was 3:1 in the morning line. Both horses ran, at off odds of 1/2 and with $14,266 out of $16,110 (88.6%) of the show money. As it was an entry, I cut my wager in half and bet a total of $50 on the race. Unfortunately, the entry finished first and third, and I had only $16 of my $50 in wagers on the :2: , who finished second and paid $3.20. I got back $25.60 of my $50.

In Belmont's 6th, a five-horse field was the result of another off-the-turf contest. The :12: was 8/5 in the morning line, and ended up at 3/5 with $26,682 of $37,046 (72.0%) in the show money. I bet $50 when it looked like the favorite would keep at least 80% of the pool, but late money on the other horses drove it down. The favorite won, and I had $20 on the :4: ($2.30) and only $5 on the :11: ($3.10). I got back $30.75 of my $50.

In Laurel's 6th, Rapid Redux went for and got his 19th straight victory. He had $83,351 out of a total of $92,019 (90.6%) in the show pool, and I bet $150, including $57 on the :1: and $52 on the :3: . Both paid $2.10, so I got back $114.45 out of the $150.

So, after 17 bridgejumper races and two favorites out of the money, my $1,000 bankroll is down to $956.00 after $1,720.00 in bets.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Tomorrow, Friday:

1:10 -- Lau 1 -- a 7/5 and a 8/5 in a field of six. I'll watch it for a scratch.
1:31 -- Lau 2 -- a 7/5 and a 9/5 in a field of six. See race #1.
2:33 -- Lau 4 -- 3/5 in a field of nine. Looks promising.
4:00 -- SA 1 -- even money in a field of *five*.
6:45 -- Dlt 1 -- even money in a field of 12. Barely worth mentioning, but hey, why not?
7:35 -- LS 1 -- 3/5 in a field of eight.
9:11 -- LS 5 -- 4/5 in a field of nine.
9:55 -- Mtr 8 -- even money in a field of eight.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Nothing ended up jumping yesterday (at least that I saw...).

Today, Saturday:


12:50 -- Mon 1 -- even money in a field of eight
1:10 -- Lau 1 -- 4/5 in a field of six
3:56 -- Suf 8 -- even money in a field of ten
5:11 -- Lau 9 -- even money in a field of twelve, but it will be off the turf, so who knows?
7:00 -- Mtr 1 -- 7/5 and 9/5 in a field of ten...watch for one to scratch

There's lots of rain on the east coast, so watch for more scratches...

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

12:50 -- Mon 1 -- even money in a field of eight.
Ended up being a jumper, with $28,342 out of $32,393 (87.5%) of the show pool on the :2: . Somehow I managed to bet $118 on the other horses, including $46 on the :5: ($2.20) and $28 on the :7: ($2.60), so I got back $87.00. The favorite finished third. If the :1: had gotten up to beat him, I would have cashed my $118 for $885.60.[/QUOTE]

1:10 -- Lau 1 -- 4/5 in a field of six
Didn't pan out.

-InTheRiver68

[showbet]

2/5 favorite with 88.4% of the show pool pulled up on the first turn. I didn't see exactly what happened as the race was being run, and I didn't want to watch the replay, but I hope the horse wasn't seriously injured.

[lamboguy]

the horse broke down, but the payoffs are awful beating 88% of the money

[InTheRiver68]

I missed the GG jumper (and I agree, those prices seem short for having almost 90% of the pool!), but I did bet the jumper in Suffolk's first race yesterday. In a seven-horse field, the favorite had $16,724 out of $20,300 (82.4%), and won the race. I tried to bet $100, but only got $90 in, and won back $67.20 by betting $28 on the :2: , and $28 on the :7: .

This morning, I got my rewards deposit from my ADW. For October, I got 1% on WPS, and I had bet $1928, so I'm crediting $19.28 towards my bridgejumper efforts. My bankroll is now at $921.48.

I'll be away from my computer for most of the day today, but:

3:27 -- FE 7 -- even money in a field of six interests, including an entry.

Wow, that's a weak day.

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

looks like the FE R7 show betting was CX

[Jay Trotter]

Mini jump just played at Monmouth 2 on the #3 Don's Peach

[mistergee]

we miss you RG

[Robert Goren]

we miss you RGThanks, I think. A hundred days in row of going over scratch sheets was enough for a while. It got to be a real drag near the end. Maybe sometime next year I might start another thread. Hopefully ITR68 will jump start this thread soon.

[mistergee]

yes, I was serious RG. In any case nice to hear from you here. Like anything that may be worthwhile I am sure the work became tough after that long haul. Still love that feeling of hitting against those jumpers, though they have been few and far between since your hiatus

[mistergee]

wow, as I was saying when you least expect it looks like we might have one here in MNR race 6 as an early 5k comes in

[InTheRiver68]

I haven't abandoned the thread, I'm just out of the country, and I'm going to be out until probably Monday the 14th. While I could check the profiles every morning, I think my wife would be a tad miffed. As it stands, she's waiting right now to rent a car and go exploring, so... see you guys in about a week!

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

have fun ITR, thanks for checkin in

[Helles]

I very much enjoy checking this thread. Thanks Robert for starting the study and thanks ITR for continuing. Very interesting study.

By the way In the River, 1%? You don't have to look far to do MUCH better than that.

[elhelmete]

Worth a play against Boys AT Toscanova in a few minutes? 83% of show pool.

[HuggingTheRail]

3 MTP at Calder Race 4

2 Year Old stake race, :4: @ 86% of pool

[lamboguy]

6th race at dover, gonna have way over $100k to win on the 1 horse.

[Gary~G1]

6th race at dover, gonna have way over $100k to win on the 1 horse.

Had the #3

[lamboguy]

i can't believe this, this horse broke on the first turn with $113k on him, he was 25 lengths back and won the race. i would have had the winner too. they lucked out on this one

[Prairie Bettor]

HE BROKE!!!

Goes back 15 or more lengths...

And comes back to WIN!

no violation, OFFICIAL!

Had to be some serious heart attacks going on, on both sides of the wager...

[davew]

Check Me Out the 1 in the Dover race was awesome

only time I remember seeing all other entrants being over 99/1


and the purse was also $129K

[Robert Goren]

I took a look at the overnights and found 2 possible places where a bridgejumper might land today.

12:52 AQU R-2 a 4/5 ML shot
9:55 MNR R-8 a 3/5 ML entry

I have not checked the PP of those races so I am really not sure how likely they are.

[lamboguy]

Check Me Out the 1 in the Dover race was awesome

only time I remember seeing all other entrants being over 99/1


and the purse was also $129K
she sure was, that was the final of the matron stakes there for 2 yo filly trotters,

the thing about harness racing these days that hasn't changed from the thoroughbred game is that horses usually run every week. some of them run every 4 days. if a horse happens to skip a week they often aren't as sharp as when they run scheduled. and when they keep running on schedule the good ones tend to get better.

[mistergee]

I took a look at the overnights and found 2 possible places where a bridgejumper might land today.

12:52 AQU R-2 a 4/5 ML shot
9:55 MNR R-8 a 3/5 ML entry

I have not checked the PP of those races so I am really not sure how likely they are.
only 4 betting interests at MNR, win betting only now

[InTheRiver68]

I'm back. Nice to see the thread got a little interest in my absence; I was wondering for a while there if anyone else was checking in.

Tomorrow, Monday:

7:00 -- Mtr 1 -- 4/5 in a field of ten

As always, there are other possibilities after scratches, but that's the only one that stands out right now.

-InTheRiver68

[lamboguy]

your seventh race at finger lakes is going to have plenty of money bet for third

[InTheRiver68]

Tuesday, 11/14. Nothing stands out, with the possible exception of Penn National's 1st race at 6:00pm. It has an entry in a field of six or seven at 7/5. Likely it won't pan out, though.

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

Tuesday, 11/14. Nothing stands out, with the possible exception of Penn National's 1st race at 6:00pm. It has an entry in a field of six or seven at 7/5. Likely it won't pan out, though.

-InTheRiver68
one of these days a stephanie beattie horse will run out , and when they do BANG ---ZOOM

About a yr or so ago she had a 1 to 20 horse at Pen run out and all the payoffs were $100 to $200

[Robert Goren]

I found a race today to look at
2:29 AQU R-5 the :7: is 1/2 on the morning line. I am not sure that very bridgejumpers would jump on 7500 claimers (bottom at AQU). But it is worth taking a peak at. I haven't looked at the PPs yet, so it might be a 3 legged class dropper in which nobody might bite.

[iwearpurple]

I found a race today to look at
2:29 AQU R-5 the :7: is 1/2 on the morning line. I am not sure that very bridgejumpers would jump on 7500 claimers (bottom at AQU). But it is worth taking a peak at. I haven't looked at the PPs yet, so it might be a 3 legged class dropper in which nobody might bite.

Claimed last race on Oct 15th for 20,000, won and now dropped in for $7,500. Worked on Nov 2nd 4f in 50.2.

[InTheRiver68]

I actually picked up a little on an Aqueduct race yesterday, but I didn't bet it as part of the Grand Experiment, so I'm not including it in the totals.

Today:

12:20 -- Aqu 1 -- 6/5 in a field of six. I see a 3/1 shot has scratched, so this one will probably be a jumper.
12:42 -- FL 2 -- 4/5 entry in a field of seven interests
1:21 -- Aqu 3 -- 7/5 (and 8/5) in a field of five. Might go.
2:19 -- Aqu 5 -- 1/2 in a field of eight (now six after scratches), probably the biggest jumper of the day
2:56 -- Lau 6 -- even money in a field of ten. Eh, maybe.

Good luck, everyone.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

12:20 -- Aqu 1 -- 6/5 in a field of six. I see a 3/1 shot has scratched, so this one will probably be a jumper.

Well, that's a nice start to the day.

The betting was weak going in, and since I couldn't bet at the last minute, I sort of had to guess at the final totals. I put $50 in the race, including $25 on the :6: , $15 on the :1: , and $5 on the :4: . The favorite ended up with $21,384 out of $26,753 (79.9%), and lost his rider after stumbling out of the gate badly.

$50 in, $223.50 out.

-InTheRiver68

edit: I see in the confusion, I missed a jumper in Calder's first that probably came about because of the scratch of the 8/5 morning line favorite. The 2/1 entry in a field of five interests ended up finishing second, so there are no interesting prices to report.

[picojim]

Claimed last race on Oct 15th for 20,000, won and now dropped in for $7,500. Worked on Nov 2nd 4f in 50.2.

actually claimed for $7,500..then won for $20,000
so back to claim price

[iwearpurple]

actually claimed for $7,500..then won for $20,000
so back to claim price

You are correct.

[InTheRiver68]

2:19 -- Aqu 5 -- 1/2 in a field of eight (now six after scratches), probably the biggest jumper of the day

The favorite ( :7: ) ended up with $45,162 out of $57,412 (78.7%). I had $100 in the race, as I thought it would end up between 85% and 90%. I was wrong.

Of my $100, I had $40 on the :5: ($2.10) and $20 on the :3: ($2.50), who actually won the race, so I got back $67.00.

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

A couple of races I will look at today

3:17 AQU R-7 :3: a 3/5 ML in field of 2yo Starter Alw
7:40 MNR R-5 :1: a 4/5 ML in a field of 5k claimers at a $2.20 min track
I think there is fair chance that both race might draw a jumper.

[Robert Goren]

A couple of races I will look at today

3:17 AQU R-7 :3: a 3/5 ML in field of 2yo Starter Alw
7:40 MNR R-5 :1: a 4/5 ML in a field of 5k claimers at a $2.20 min track
I think there is fair chance that both race might draw a jumper.The MNR R-5 is at 8:40 est. I live the the central time zone and forgot to change it back to est.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

in the 7th might be a HUGE Bridgejump

[Phantombridgejumpe]

not as big as I expected with the scratch

[lamboguy]

The MNR R-5 is at 8:40 est. I live the the central time zone and forgot to change it back to est.sea dubai already won the maiden and got the purse money taken back. now comes back to the same condition. good luck

[Robert Goren]

After looking at the PPs for Sea Dubai, I doubt if anyone jumps on him. He has few too many red flags. If they do, then they know something I don't and he will probably cash.

[woodtoo]

sea dubai already won the maiden and got the purse money taken back. now comes back to the same condition. good luck

Prefer the :2: Ivegottobeme but not counting sea dubai out,only hoping.:jump:

[Robert Goren]

I saw the results, but missed the race. Was there a jumper?

[lamboguy]

I saw the results, but missed the race. Was there a jumper?
why would you bet that horse to show, he paid $3 for win. the horse ran a brutal last quarter. bet against him next time.

[jdhanover]

was just a jumper at CT09 - finished 4th (race 9)

Unfortunately I didnt notice it until the prices were posted

Show prices were 11.20 (5/2 horse), 23.60 (11/1) 36.20 (13/1)

[mistergee]

Yes, he had approx 70 out of the 80k in the show pool

[lamboguy]

Yes, he had approx 70 out of the 80k in the show pool
what rotten payoffs on that event. if you bet all the entrants in the race you didn't get 5-1 for your bet.

[mistergee]

I felt like it should be more just looking at it, but I guess the math is the math, I played 3 of the horses and 2 came in I got about 8-1

[InTheRiver68]

One clear choice this evening:

9:55 -- Mtr 8 -- 3/5 in a 6-horse starter allowance field at a $2.20 track.

That race is the warmup for Monday's barnburner:

9:55 (Monday) -- Mtr 8 -- Rapid Redux goes for 20 straight victories in a 9-horse starter allowance field at a $2.20 track. His morning line is 1/9.

Half of Rapid Redux's competition is morning lined at 30/1. Should be ... interesting.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

One clear choice this evening:

9:55 -- Mtr 8 -- 3/5 in a 6-horse starter allowance field at a $2.20 track.
Well, here's the deal with this one. The favorite, the :6: , opened up with $2,500 in the show pool and no one else had any more than $100. As the betting progressed, someone dumped over $1,000 to show on the morning line second-favorite, the :1: . Then, somehow, the pool on the :6: dropped down to just over $1,000. Then the pool on the :1: dropped a lot, down to maybe $400. At post time, it looked like the :6: might end up with $2,000 or $2,500 to show as the late money came in.

I chose not to bet. I thought the money was acting sketchy and I didn't see the favorite getting the action necessary to jump in myself. Turns out that just before the race went off, about $9,000 got dumped on the :6: , who ended up with $10,838 out of $12,835, and finished fifth. The top finishers' show prices were $11.80, $16.60, and $26.40.

This would have been a nice race to add to my bankroll, but I didn't see it coming together, and frankly I was turned off by the games going on in the pools. Oh, well...better luck next time, I guess.

I suppose the lesson learned here is that at a $2.20 track, there's always going to be someone greedy enough to jump in at the end, no matter how suspect the pools are.

-InTheRiver68

[davew]

maybe rule 6 needs to allow bets on all potentials at $2.20 tracks

but not all entrants and the 5% max of bankroll?

[Robert Goren]

I discovered early on in my adventure with this , that you can't out guess late money. Generally jumper money shows up pretty early. generally. Races on saturday and sunday especially at night and early races during the day can get a dump of late money on the favorite. There is not much you do in planning for it. You just have to wait and wait and hope you have time to act. I missed one at SUF and one someplace else, maybe Finger Lakes. and a few others where the jumper cashed.

[mistergee]

One clear choice this evening:

9:55 -- Mtr 8 -- 3/5 in a 6-horse starter allowance field at a $2.20 track.

That race is the warmup for Monday's barnburner:

9:55 (Monday) -- Mtr 8 -- Rapid Redux goes for 20 straight victories in a 9-horse starter allowance field at a $2.20 track. His morning line is 1/9.

Half of Rapid Redux's competition is morning lined at 30/1. Should be ... interesting.

-InTheRiver68
looks like a few scratches and show betting cancelled in the Rapid redux race

[lamboguy]

not only did they scratch the better horses for this race, but rapid redux has the very best rider in the place, and the 2nd. 3rd, and 4th riders are all missing from the race with the scratches, those were the next best riders at THE MOUNTAIN

THESE GUYS ARE NOT TAKING ANY CHANCES THIS EVENING!!!!!

[InTheRiver68]

not only did they scratch the better horses for this race, but rapid redux has the very best rider in the place, and the 2nd. 3rd, and 4th riders are all missing from the race with the scratches, those were the next best riders at THE MOUNTAIN

THESE GUYS ARE NOT TAKING ANY CHANCES THIS EVENING!!!!!
This is a circumstance in which there may very well be a true place bridgejumper. With an absolutely prohibitive favorite going up against four tomato cans of roughly equal "quality", I would not be surprised if RR got 90%+ of the place pool.

And if he does, I'll be betting. Sure, it seems that RR is a mortal lock, but moretal locks are the ones that pay off the best...

-InTheRiver68

[davew]

97% of place pool 20 minutes to post

[InTheRiver68]

If RR ends up with at least 80% of the place pool, by the time they go to post, I'll bet half of what I'd normally bet (because it's a place pool instead of a show pool).

Based on what I'm seeing in the exacta probables, I would be betting against RR in the following proportions:

:5: - 5 units
:2: - 3 units
:6: - 1 unit
:8: - 1 unit

I see the place wagers on the tomato cans are far outweighing the win wagers, indicating the very strong presence of bet-againsters. Even as a big fan of bet-againsting, the fact that the 30:1 M/L shots have three or four or five times as much bet to place as to win makes me think that betting win would actually be a better value. If RR runs out of the money, the place prices will look nice, but it's possible that betting win against RR is the value in this race. After all, RR doesn't even need to run out to make that a worthwhile bet...

-InTheRiver68

edit: They've scratched the :8: at pretty much post time. Place wagering is still a go. Think I'll put $50 into the race, but at this point it's just for the experiment's sake. If I were betting on this race without the constraints of the experiment, I would bet win on the :5: .

[mistergee]

wow about a quarter mill in the place pool

[InTheRiver68]

I added the last edit just before some $150,000 came into the pools at the last minute. This pushed RR's share of the place pool up above 98% for a short period, so I doubled my bet to $100. I had $35 on the :2:. (When the :8: scratched, I split that entrant's unit between the :2: and the :5: .) So I got back $56.00. Not the best outcome for my balance, but it was nice to watch RR make it 20-in-a-row, even though the competition was hardly a challenge.

By the way, if RR had failed and the race had finished :2: - :5: , my $100 would have returned $1,895.00

-InTheRiver68

edit: forgot the update ... after 23 races and $2,178 bet, I've cashed for $2,175.70 (including three favorites out of the money) , so I'm all but even.

[lamboguy]

one thing for sure, RAPID REDUX don't look like the same horse that he was in MAY. he needed this weak field like oxygen to get this victory. that guy just loves to win. he broke the consecutive win streak in 355 days. that is quite a feet these days to get a horse to run 20 times in less than a year, no less win them all.

[Prairie Bettor]

I had $700 to place on each horse other than Rapid...

I lost $750 after the one winning ticket and rebate...

Anyone have the time to tell me what I could've cashed if Rapid ran out?

thanks.

[iceknight]

The exacta odds were good (for the winning combination, that is..)

[InTheRiver68]

I had $700 to place on each horse other than Rapid...

I lost $750 after the one winning ticket and rebate...

Anyone have the time to tell me what I could've cashed if Rapid ran out?

thanks.

The :2: would have paid $42.60, and the :5: would have paid $41.80. Your $2,100 bet would have cashed for $29,540 (plus rebate).

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

There is 2 races I might look at today

1:59 LRL R-4 a 3/5 ML in 25k nw of 2 claimer. Not many bridge jumper show up at LRL, but 3/5 ML is usually a good indicator.
2:04 Parx R-5 a even money ML for a Juan Carlos Guerrero M12.5 claimer. I don't think I have never seen a ML that low at Parx. If I were a bridge jumper, I would not touch anything at Parx, so who knows.

I was kind of looking back at some of my bets yesterday and appears that an off track improves the chances of the jumper horse running out. The sample is way too small to be valid, but I thought I would throw it out there for people to ponder.

[lamboguy]

The :2: would have paid $42.60, and the :5: would have paid $41.80. Your $2,100 bet would have cashed for $29,540 (plus rebate).

-InTheRiver68
if they lined up this very same field 100 times with the very same situation @mountaineer park, i highly doubt that Rapid Redux would run third or worse once in 80 times. one of the ways that potentially could have brought him down would have been a disqualification. he could have taken bumped every single horse in that race and knocked them all down last night and they still would never take that horse down. this was not Niccoles Dream.

[Robert Goren]

if they lined up this very same field 100 times with the very same situation @mountaineer park, i highly doubt that Rapid Redux would run third or worse once in 80 times. one of the ways that potentially could have brought him down would have been a disqualification. he could have taken bumped every single horse in that race and knocked them all down last night and they still would never take that horse down. this was not Niccoles Dream. Like most bridgejumper horses, something has to happen to the horse for him to lose. The one thing I have discovered in betting against jumpers is that they always look unbeatable in the DRF. I agree the one thing that RR had going for him that most jumpers horses don't is that there was no way he was going to be DQed. Not that I have ever seen a jumper DQed out of the money anyway.

[Prairie Bettor]

one of the ways that potentially could have brought him down would have been a disqualification. he could have taken bumped every single horse in that race and knocked them all down last night and they still would never take that horse down.

Had that happened, doesn't a horse have to finish the race to be paid?

So if he knocked them all down and they didn't finish, what is the call?

Refund the race?

[Robert Goren]

I saw an 8 horse race where 6 of the 8 horse went down many years ago. They only paid 2 horses to show. I have no idea what they did with the purse money.

The horse running second snapped a leg on the first turn. The front runner won the race. A horse who was in last by about 5 lengths circled the pile and ran second by 2 football fields.

[davew]

There is 2 races I might look at today

1:59 LRL R-4 a 3/5 ML in 25k nw of 2 claimer. Not many bridge jumper show up at LRL, but 3/5 ML is usually a good indicator.
2:04 Parx R-5 a even money ML for a Juan Carlos Guerrero M12.5 claimer. I don't think I have never seen a ML that low at Parx. If I were a bridge jumper, I would not touch anything at Parx, so who knows.

I was kind of looking back at some of my bets yesterday and appears that an off track improves the chances of the jumper horse running out. The sample is way too small to be valid, but I thought I would throw it out there for people to ponder.

off-tracks usually do not have as good of footing - if a horse takes a funny step or slides, the jockey becomes concerned about possibly going down - most jockeys are more concerned about their own life than the bridgejumpers show bet

[Robert Goren]

Since I am up way too early I did some checking and found two 3/5 ML today

3:17 AQU R-7 a bunch of 2yo NY bred maidens. A word of warning. NYRA has been known to move up their post times when the weather is bad.
3:34 CD R-7 a nw of 2 other than....alw.

[davew]

can you check your records on what percent of the bridgejumper horses actually won, and the win ROI?

I realize some paid $2.40 or lower to win but some also paid over $4

[Robert Goren]

can you check your records on what percent of the bridgejumper horses actually won, and the win ROI?

I realize some paid $2.40 or lower to win but some also paid over $4Sorry, I did not keep records on that. To check it, I would have to go back to the race charts at Equibase. I believe I noted in my thread the placing of the jumper horse each the races. I have no desire to go back and look all them up. But you are free to sort through the posts and see you can develop a record.

[lamboguy]

the 7th at aqueduct today will be field day for you guys that like to bet against the money. MARY JANE should have more on her than Rapid Redux did the other night.

[senortout]

Very funny

[lamboguy]

Like most bridgejumper horses, something has to happen to the horse for him to lose. The one thing I have discovered in betting against jumpers is that they always look unbeatable in the DRF. I agree the one thing that RR had going for him that most jumpers horses don't is that there was no way he was going to be DQed. Not that I have ever seen a jumper DQed out of the money anyway.niccols dream got dq's a ew years back at the mountain, for no reason whatsoever except that she happened to have about $200k bet on her in the third spot.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

at AQU:

1) 2 Year old race

2) Maiden race

3) Filly race

4) 8 other horses, 7 other betting interests

If it is a bridgejump, it won't be a 90% plus one (or shouldn't be)

[InTheRiver68]

I'm looking at today's profiles now...

12:35 -- Lau 1 -- only mentioning it to note that it's scratched down to four horses, so no show wagering
1:03 -- Lau 2 -- 4/5 M/L in a field of seven.
1:21 -- Aqu 3 -- scratched down to five, but the weaker part of the 6/5 entry is running.
2:19 -- Aqu 5 -- scratched down to six, the 6/5 M/L still runs.
3:17 -- Aqu 7 -- as noted, the 3/5 M/L in a field of eight interests, 2YO maiden fillies in the mud. I actually would be surprised if this got a lot of play; bridgejumpers aren't stupid.
3:34 -- ChD 7 -- 3/5 in a field of nine. I don't think I've ever seen a 'jumper at Churchill, but there's a first time for everything.

Then we can all knock off early and hit the bars.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

Looks like nothing panned out. The 3/5 at Aqueduct was scratched, and the 3/5 at Churchill only took half the show pool (and won).

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

I will be looking at 3 races today

3:57 CRC R-9 :7: a 4/5 ML in a G-3 stake
5:58 TUP R-6 :6: a 4/5 ML in 2 yo Filliies AZ-Bred stakes
:rolleyes: and daily MNR race
8:40 MNR R-5 :1: a 3/5 ML in maiden race.
All three races look like likely places for jumper to land to me, but who knows.

[chipandrun]

TUP Race 6

4MTP

N0.6 89 % of SP.

[picojim]

TUP Race 6

4MTP

N0.6 89 % of SP.

off the board

1st 5-Hot On Top $16.60 $4.80 $9.40
2nd 8-Hindu Kush - $15.40 $41.60
3rd 9-Lynx Lake - - $26.80

[Robert Goren]

After a nice hit out west yesterday, I could not find anything to get excited about today. There is couple of race at MNR that have short MLs, but I don't think there will be a jumpers on them.

[InTheRiver68]

Trying to get back into the swing of things, but like RG said, there's not much out there.

8:15 -- Mtr 4 -- 4/5 in a 9-horse field
9:55 -- Mtr 8 -- 4/5 in a 6-horse field

I advance-wagered the 5th at Mountaineer last night, knowing I'd be on the road when it went off. I bet $115, which turned out to be close to what I would have bet if I had been in front of the computer. I had $30 on the :5: ($2.40) and $10 on the :8: ($3.20), so I got back $52, which wasn't particularly good. The favorite had $40,772 out of $46,254 (88.1%).

My bankroll is down to $953.68

-InTheRiver68

[mistergee]

looks like there is a even money shot entered in the first at LRL

[Robert Goren]

There is a horse today that is a near cinch to draw bridge jumper unless it scratches.

2:19 AQU R-5 :3: a 1/4 ML(yes thats right 1/4) Rudy Rodriguez 2 yo running in a NY bred "NW of 1 other than" filly ALW race. if it doesn't bring out a jumper, I haven't a clue what will.

[InTheRiver68]

RG has found the day's best bet for bridgejumpers.

I would also look to:

3:45 -- GG 1 -- five horse field, and a 7/5 shot.

Not nearly as tempting as AQU's 5th (which is now scratched down to six entrants), but you never know...

-InTheRiver68

[lamboguy]

why would you bet that to show, its either win or off the board

[lamboguy]

the track is not playing that kindly to speed today either in new york. but this horse is real good and will have to be good enough to hang on.

not a bad bet against for show pool if enough money show up

[senortout]

A STUNNING NY bred filly, indeed. Track was a bit holding as someone stated, but she towered above these, and will win more than her share if she stays sound. I know she's impressing me................

[Robert Goren]

AQU R-5 :3: won by many, but the two longest shots on the board ran 2nd and 3rd. paying $8.80 and $7.10 each for a nice profit of $5.90 on a 2 bet on the all against button.

[senortout]

Forgot to add, she will be facing some very short fields if she remains w/ state-breds

[senortout]

AQU R-5 :3: won by many, but the two longest shots on the board ran 2nd and 3rd. paying $8.80 and $7.10 each for a nice profit of $5.90 on a 2 bet on the all against button.

one paid only 6.80, you listed as 8.80, still nice to profit a bit off a race such as this, specially when the fav. runs off like that!

[InTheRiver68]

That could have ended better for me.

I put $100 in the race; $7 each of the :4: and the :5: , so I got back $48.65.

Turns out the odds-on favorite had $119,322 out of $137,924 (86.5%), so the $100 was a good-sized wager. Unfortunately, the two longest shots on the board were the 2nd and 3rd place finishers. Better luck next time, I guess.

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

one paid only 6.80, you listed as 8.80, still nice to profit a bit off a race such as this, specially when the fav. runs off like that! You are correct. My eyes decieved me.

[chipandrun]

Finger Race 8
N0.5 81% SP
Won Pd 2.10

[Robert Goren]

There is three races today I will be looking at
4:09 FG R-6 :1: a promising 2 yo filly making her second start with a 3/5 ML in an optional claimer
6:32 GG R-7 :5: a 4/5 ML in a 8k turf claimer. I don't know if they will bet this one because it is on the turf. I have not seen a lot of jumpers in turf races.
10:46 RP R-8 :2: a 3/5 ML in an OK state bred F&M stakes race.

[InTheRiver68]

There's also an even money shot in the 2nd at Mountaineer (10-horse field). It seems unlikely to draw much attention, but you never know.

-InTheRiver68

[rgustafson]

There is three races today I will be looking at
4:09 FG R-6 :1: a promising 2 yo filly making her second start with a 3/5 ML in an optional claimer
6:32 GG R-7 :5: a 4/5 ML in a 8k turf claimer. I don't know if they will bet this one because it is on the turf. I have not seen a lot of jumpers in turf races.
10:46 RP R-8 :2: a 3/5 ML in an OK state bred F&M stakes race.

Money starting to come in on Applauding, the 1 at the Fairgrounds, $30,000 to show with around 4 minutes to post.

[rgustafson]

Over $89,000 to show on Applauding, about 90% of the show pool. Won wire to wire. Drew off by about seven lenghts at the end.

[InTheRiver68]

I got caught flat-footed and had to make a sort of emergency bet just at post on the FG race. I bet $120, including $50 on the :3: and :4: . The odds-on favorite filly ended up with $89,354 out of $99,089 (90.1%), and, as noted, she won going away. I got back $107.50.

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

2:11 -- Beu 3 -- even money in a field of six.
3:55 -- Lrl 8 -- 7/5 in a field of five interests (six entrants).
7:50 -- Mtr 3 -- Deshawn Parker is on a 1/2 in a field of seven. $2.20 track!

-InTheRiver68

[InTheRiver68]

7:50 -- Mtr 3 -- Deshawn Parker is on a 1/2 in a field of seven. $2.20 track!

The odds-on favorite ended up with $77,822 out of $85,284 (91.3%), and won, paying $2.20, $2.20, $2.20.

I bet it early because I was going to be on the road, and unfortunately that meant putting $60 of my $100 on the clear second choice, the :3: , who apparently didn't do so well. I ended up with $5 on the :2: ($7.00) and $10 on the :6: ($6.60), so I got back $50.50.

-InTheRiver68

[Robert Goren]

I found one race today
4:00 HOL R-2 :4: 4/5 ML in a 5 horse 62.5k optional claimer turf sprint.

[InTheRiver68]

I agree with RG that the big race will be HOL's 2nd. There are a few x/5-odds horses at GG that, with a scratch or two could be interesting. Also:

1:21 -- Aqu 3 -- 6/5 in a field of (now) five.
4:00 -- Hol 2 -- 4/5 in a field of five.

-InTheRiver68