Drivers rated by ROI

[Ray2000]

12 month stats on Driver ROI ....Counting drives at all tracks last 365 days

Driver............Total Bet...Return....ROI on $2 Win bets
12 best
Goodell, Eric..........3242....3357....+4%
Coulter, Scott.........4744....4676....-1%
Holland, Brent.........3116....2929....-6%
Mccarthy, Andrew.......2754....2579....-6%
Merriman, Jason........2068....1917....-7%
Jamieson, Jody.........4540....4206....-7%
Napolitano, Anthony....2916....2694....-8%
Cummings, John.........2012....1842....-8%
Grismore, Greg.........3890....3466....-11%
Noble, Daniel..........2860....2548....-11%
Davis, Allan...........2910....2580....-11%
Dobson, Billy..........4152....3659....-12%

12 on the bottom
Baillargeon, Mario.....2848....1685....-41%
Warren, Todd...........2490....1448....-42%
Bouchard, Stephane.....4248....2461....-42%
Hiteman, Dale..........2262....1306....-42%
Shepherd, Robert.......4108....2359....-43%
Hanners, Bradley.......3216....1839....-43%
Magee, David...........2774....1526....-45%
Whelan, Michael........2386....1260....-47%
Davis, Howard..........2002....1026....-49%
Di Benedetto, Kyle.....3172....1624....-49%
Miller, Robin..........3862....1970....-49%
Ingraham, David........2172....1104....-49%

Pop Drivers
Driver............Total Bet...Return....ROI
Jamieson, Jody........4540....4206....-7%
Dobson, Billy.........4152....3659....-12%
Brennan, George.......5170....4461....-14%
Widger, Samuel........4806....4068....-15%
Palone, David.........5326....4416....-17%
Callahan, Corey.......5950....4820....-19%
Pantaleano, James.....5792....4619....-20%
Napolitano, George....5178....4125....-20%
Stratton, Jordan......4366....3462....-21%
Tetrick, Tim..........6674....5094....-24%
Pierce, Ronald........6024....4570....-24%
Bartlett, Jason.......4968....3761....-24%
Miller, David.........5018....3758....-25%
Merriman, Aaron.......6184....4616....-25%
Sears, Brian..........3884....2888....-26%
Kakaley, Matthew......5748....4227....-26%
Parker, William.......3872....2827....-27%
Manzi, Catello........5470....3804....-30%
Charlino, Daniel......4538....3131....-31%
Miller, Andy..........5142....3422....-33%
Mackenzie, Paul.......5410....3317....-39%
Dube, Daniel..........4964....3002....-40%

Fewer than 1000 drives but making a splash

St Louis, Marc.........966....1111....15% 23yo hazel
Mcneight, David.......1040....1161....12% 21yo batavia
Massey, Kody..........1366....1450.....6% 28yo hazel
Smith, Tyler..........2152....1749...-19% 18yo Indy


see attached for other Drivers and with less than 1000 drives

[melman]

Ray---Thanks for another great info post. I keep my driver ROI stats a different way. NOT on all drives but ONLY on drivers where I bet on that driver. "my guys" are.

Billy Dobson, Mike Wilder, Mike Forte, Dan Dube and Corey Callahan.

Was surprised Dan Dube was at -40 overall. I must be betting him at the correct times. :lol:

Ray could you post your overall stats on Wilder and Forte? tks

[Hanover1]

Good stats here. So how do we interpret them? A matter of perspective, or simple math? First, the case can be made that certain drivers are overbet vs horses ability. Considering that the top drivers get with as many as a dozen a day, and a top in the money % is .400, this leaves 6 out of 10 in limbo. So the ROI would not be shocking in this regard, right? Are bettors really missing that much? Considering harness has fewer and fewer casual fans yearly, are the die hards overbetting that much? Or are the stats presented misunderstood?

[Ray2000]

mel
Odd but I couldn't find Wilder's UDR at USTA. Here's what I have for 12 months

Driver...............UDR Total Bet...Return....ROI Win bets
Wilder, W ......... .224.....4614....3507....-24%
Forte, Michael..... .240 ....2830....1726....-39%


Hanover1

That's a good question on how to interpret these numbers. They reflect how the crowd bets rather than any direct correlation the driver's ability. But it's hard to see why there is such a wide spread between popularly known drivers. Do some whales get stuck on one guy?

I made this list because I was reading a pullthepocket blog on how hard it is to find value in this game anymore, and was wondering if ROIs were more predictive or useful than UDRs in finding an edge. I'm thinking of re-programming the bot this way and redo a couple of years of races just to compare.

It's like we've entered a world of Bizzarro handicapping... toss out all the usual 'good' factors because everybody knows them and they'll be overbet.

That blog lists 6 other "Bizzaro" angles. Maybe I should try them all. :)

http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2011/09/moneyball-not-just-for-baseball.html

[Hanover1]

mel
Odd but I couldn't find Wilder's UDR at USTA. Here's what I have for 12 months

Driver...............UDR Total Bet...Return....ROI Win bets
Wilder, W ......... .224.....4614....3507....-24%
Forte, Michael..... .240 ....2830....1726....-39%


Hanover1

That's a good question on how to interpret these numbers. They reflect how the crowd bets rather than any direct correlation the driver's ability. But it's hard to see why there is such a wide spread between popularly known drivers. Do some whales get stuck on one guy?

I made this list because I was reading a pullthepocket blog on how hard it is to find value in this game anymore, and was wondering if ROIs were more predictive or useful than UDRs in finding an edge. I'm thinking of re-programming the bot this way and redo a couple of years of races just to compare.

It's like we've entered a world of Bizzarro handicapping... toss out all the usual 'good' factors because everybody knows them and they'll be overbet.

That blog lists 6 other "Bizzaro" angles. Maybe I should try them all. :)

http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2011/09/moneyball-not-just-for-baseball.html

The Bizzaro angle is spot on imo. The usual factors that get us to the overbet theory don't come into play as it relates to who actually wins. Example: How many players are aware of beard trainers, what they are used for, and who is an effective beard, and why? Harness is rife with beards, moreso than TBs to be sure.... Understanding why drivers take off one and drives another is another unknown for many, the catch driver issue. Smaller tracks present their own problems as it relates to trainer/driver intent, and sadly some of the rep harness has in this regard has been earned. Knowing the ins as it relates to owners, paper trainers, and driver intent should get us closer. Track variable, and equipment issues, for me, are not so much an issue, as it, for me at least, is not a challenge to figure during scanning the program, and most educated bettors are the same. Many mention the UFO factor, and I agree with this whole heartedly, once one understands how they are built vs todays conventional sulky, and what the advantages are to the horse.

[Ray2000]

Hanover1,
Those factors, all good ones, were available when I was at the track every day and talking to the crews but now I'm living in a cornfield in Clarion County, Pa and limited to program data. A handicap, so to speak. :)


Here's a stat on driver switches, not real useful in that other factors are in play, but this data shows the results of horses in 2011 who started with a different driver than last time. The change is switching up or down, to or from a Top driver (>290 UDR) or a switch to same level.
ROI ignores other factors and/or if some starters were in the same race.

Starters.....Bets......Return.......P/L.........ROI
9,064 .....$18,128 ....$12,060 .....($6,068)....-33%....switch up
19,202 ....$38,404 ....$25,159 ....($13,245)....-34%....switch same
8,975 .....$17,950 ....$13,809 .....($4,141)....-23%....switch down

I wouldn't recommend betting driver drop-downs but it does show where the "Value Hunting Grounds" lie. Look for a sharp form cycle and posts 1 or 5 that may overcome the good-->average driver switch.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

With all due respect Ray,even when I started making my own driver stats by hand,back in the 60's,I always kept two sets of data.One for pacers & the other for trotters.Would never consider combining them.
And still to this day,any horse that is disqualified for any reason,still is shown in my stats as to their actual physical finish crossing the line,not the subsequent position loss.This also includes any gain others might recieve,in light of the aforementioned.
I did this because of glaring mistakes I would discover in programs year after year.Obviously human error.I wouldn't be surprised to find inaccuracies,even in this day and age,spread throughout the data kept at a track's website.Probably even Trackmaster?
Just food for thought.

[Sea Biscuit]

Good stats here. So how do we interpret them? A matter of perspective, or simple math? First, the case can be made that certain drivers are overbet vs horses ability. Considering that the top drivers get with as many as a dozen a day, and a top in the money % is .400, this leaves 6 out of 10 in limbo. So the ROI would not be shocking in this regard, right? Are bettors really missing that much? Considering harness has fewer and fewer casual fans yearly, are the die hards overbetting that much? Or are the stats presented misunderstood?

I think those stats are (correct me if I am wrong Ray) if you play a certain driver every time he races.

You and I know that is not the way to make money in this game.

[Ray2000]

TTRAC
Good food for thought, errors are always a problem in Harness data (particularly Lengths Behind numbers) but hopefully some are self canceling rather than cumulative and can be ignored if the data base is large enough.

Sea
Correct (Same for the Post ROIs posted earlier where the post number is bet in every race.)

The purpose is to look for trends and crowd wagering bias. In fact if you look at Average Mutuels when those drivers do win, you get a different picture.

Driver..........Total Bet....Total Ret...ROI...Ave Win 2$ tkt
Top 12
Grismore, Greg........3890....3466....-11%....$17.96
Dennis, George........3864....3087....-20%....$17.95
Mccarthy, Andrew......2754....2579.....-6%....$17.67
Plante, Roger.........2498....1886....-24%....$16.99
Stratton, Jordan......4366....3462....-21%....$16.03
Stillings, Richard....3282....2757....-16%....$15.66
Koch, Kenneth.........2750....1916....-30%....$15.33
Zendt, Brian..........2690....2018....-25%....$15.28
Sutton, Joshua........2916....2215....-24%....$15.17
Davis, Allan..........2910....2580....-11%....$15.09
Holland, Brent........3116....2929.....-6%....$14.72
Brewer, Jason.........2432....1938....-20%....$14.46

Bottom 12
Aldrich, Bruce........4122....3491....-15%....$8.08
Jamieson, Jody........4540....4206.....-7%....$8.04
Miller, Marcus........4880....3722....-24%....$8.02
Cappello, Daniel......2836....2212....-22%....$7.96
Parker, William.......3872....2827....-27%....$7.81
Napolitano, George....5178....4125....-20%....$7.14
Carlson, Eric.........2872....2366....-18%....$6.82
Oosting, Michael......2946....2139....-27%....$6.71
Noble, Daniel.........2860....2548....-11%....$6.67
Tetrick, Tim..........6674....5094....-24%....$6.60
Brennan, George.......5170....4461....-14%....$6.40
Palone, David.........5326....4416....-17%....$6.26

Jody's now in the bottom 12 and 3 Meadows drivers are boosted to the top probably due to Palone being overbet.

for mel
Wilder...$13.18
Forte....$11.59

[Hanover1]

I think those stats are (correct me if I am wrong Ray) if you play a certain driver every time he races.

You and I know that is not the way to make money in this game.


Not the way, no. But it seems that as a crowd, either 200 or 45,000, the crowd does bet this way, according to how the numbers are presented. I think the numbers land this way for reasons some don't take into account when betting, or the numbers are just a product of all that encompasses a driver and his career these days. In other words you can't win them all, and here is why.....but on occasion we do se a driver reel off 4-5-6-7-8-9+ wins on a card, and I do believe some try to chase these streaks as well, if horse shows any trot/pace at all.

[melman]

Tks Ray you now know my requests without me asking. :lol:
Some of my ROI driver guys for today at the little m.

R2 4 Kickin King
R3 4 Incredible Bob
R4 3 Artist Bill
R6 1 Musical Ingot

These are ones I like 1st or 2nd and are being drivin by guys I have had very good sucess with.

[LottaKash]

TTRAC
Driver..........Total Bet....Total Ret...ROI...Ave Win 2$ tkt
Top 12
Mccarthy, Andrew......2754....2579.....-6%....$17.67
Jamieson, Jody........4540....4206.....-7%....$8.04



I get more bang for my buck with these two guys, probably more than any other two.....I watch-em(s) like a hawk...

Especially so with Andy, Mccarthy, when a higher rated driver gets off, and he gets on....For my money, he can rate a horse almost as good as anybody...He is also very astute at perceiving a track bias well before the others may catch on to it....:ThmbUp:

I like Brett Miller a lot too, for overlays....

best,

P.S. Thx for the stats Ray....:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

I think those stats are (correct me if I am wrong Ray) if you play a certain driver every time he races.

You and I know that is not the way to make money in this game.


That was also the point I was implying.
Some guys are just way better with one gait versus the other.
You probably know who they are at your local circuit,but when racing is available across North America every day,makes it tough to know them all.