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Que
10-05-2001, 10:56 PM
For what's it worth, below are my Brisnet picks for Week Two. This week I have a few mid-priced picks mixed in with in with some real bombs. Anyway, since I'm way behind in wins (and ROI too ;)), I just used my trainer and jockey stats to come up with this week's picks--and hopefully, a couple of big hits.

RACE 1 - Belmont Park 4th Race

8/1 -- Sovereign Sweep -- Terranova John P II -- Prado Edgar S

Trainer John Terranova has done well with two year olds, with an overall of record of 6-3-1-1, ROI: 3.22. His record with maiden's is also very respectable at 22-6-0-0, ROI: 1.67. In the last 30 days, Terranova also has won 50% of his starts (6 3-0-1, ROI: 3.18); not to mention that he has won 24% of starts at Belmont (33 8-4-3, ROI: 1.36). Edgar Prado also has a good record with firt-time starters (319 54-47-37, ROI: 1.09), and Prado's record with two year old colts in the month of October is a respectable 76 14-13-8, ROI: 1.15.

4/1 -- Easyfromthegitgo -- Asmussen Steven -- Meche Donnie J

Steve Asmussen has a good record when swithching to jockey Donnie Meche (327 79-59-42, ROI: 1.02)

15/1 -- Tacirring -- Lake Scott A --Gryder Aaron T

Scott Lake has been tearing up Belmont with a record of 61 19-13-12, ROI: 1.74. Also, his record in Maiden's is 93 17-16-14, ROI: 1.38. Finally, when returning his maidens within 8-14 days his record is 22 6-1-3, ROI: 3.29--and reducing it to horse's that last finished >= 6th that record improves to 6 2-0-0, ROI: 9.20.


RACE 2 - Pimlico Race Course 6th Race

6/1 -- Press Doll -- Green Ernest E -- Scantling Vernon

I don't have a whole lot of data on Ernest Green, except that when he wins he does so at big prices. Over the last three years his overall record is 129-13-10-10, 1.76. He also seems to like Pimlico with a record of Pim 47 6-3-2, ROI: 2.36. Finaly, his record with owner David Carter is a very respectable 58 8-6-3, ROI: 2.32--this record improves to 30 4-3-0, ROI: 3.47 if you only count fillies and mares. I'm only showing jockey Vernon Scantling with one mount for trainer, Ernerst Green, and owner, David Carter, and that was Press Doll's last race--which paid 164.80 to win.

5/1 -- The Fifth Element -- Graham Robin L -- Reynolds Larry C

Over the last 30 days, trainer Robin Graham's record is 5 2-2-0, ROI: 4.58. Robin's record with owner, Susan Chanoski is a very respectable 6 2-1-1, ROI: 0.95. Also, you can call jockey, Larry Reynolds, "Mr. October" where his record is 260 47-32-29, ROI: 1.24.

8/1 -- Ballet Partner -- Campitelli Francis P --Dunkelberger Travis L

Hard to go wrong betting a horse with Travis Dunkelberger up--his record over the last 90 days is 193 66-24-15, ROI: 1.22.


RACE 3 - Delaware Park 8th Race

15/1 -- Rose Gold -- Manchio Robert S -- Brown Tracey M

Trainer, Robert Manchio, has a record of 44 9-6-5, ROI: 2.77, with jockey Tracey Brown. Also, when executing a class drop greater than 40% (purse value), Manchio's record is 28 5-3-3, ROI: 1.49. In addition, when Manchio's horses were greater than 6th at the second call in their last race (Rose Gold was 10th), Manchio's record is 51 7-4-5, ROI: 2.16. Tracey Brown is also a very good sprint jockey, with a record of 74 11-9-6, ROI: 1.47; and her record with owner Michael R Ditomasso is 9 2-1-1, ROI: 1.65.

10/1 -- Sweet Honeydoo -- Frazier Murray -- Castillo Oliver

Over the past three years trainer, Murray Frazier, record is a respectable 75 14-11-8, ROI: 1.66. Moreover, with jockey Oliver Castillo, his record is 23 4-2-5, ROI: 1.63. Finally, when changing tracks (Sweet Honeydo's last race was at Calder), Frazier's record is 17 5-1-2, ROI: 2.49.

4/1 -- Trail of the Fox -- Gorham Michael E --Valdes Ricardo A

When trainer, Michael Gorham, is using jockey, Richardo Valdes, on consecutive mounts his record is 81 9-14-2, ROI: 1.25.


RACE 4 - Philadelphia Park 9th Race

15/1 -- Bay Head King -- Jerkens James A -- Lopez Charles C

Over the past three years, James Jerkins record in Graded Stakes events is 46 6-6-12, ROI: 2.20.

20/1 -- Shore Breeze --Goldberg Alan E -- Coa Eibar

Trainer, Alan Goldberg's record with Jayeff B Stables is 408 100-46-59, ROI: 1.11. In addition, when his horse's were 2nd or 3rd at the first call in their last race (Shore Breeze was 2nd) his record is 81 32-9-13 ROI: 1.55. However, when raising his horse 40% or more in class in graded stakes races his record is 22 2-0-5, ROI: 0.35.

12/1 -- Run Kush Run -- Serey Juan -- Turner Tom G

Trainer, Juan Serey, has a record of 29 7-4-4, ROI: 1.02, in Graded Stakes sprints. In addition, when returning horse's with only 1-7 days rest his record is 51 23-6-5, ROI: 1.67. However, when raising his horse 40% or more in class in graded stakes races his record 17 2-3-1, ROI: 0.55.


RACE 5 - Louisiana Downs 4th Race

20/1 -- Richard`s Delight -- Melancon Francis Jr -- Romero Josh M

I've always liked Francis Melancon's horses, especially in claiming racres, where his record is 334 38-30-39, ROI: 1.29. In addition, when returning his horses at the same class his record 99 16-8-8, ROI: 1.97--which improves to 73 12-7-6, ROI: 2.28, if you only consider claiming races--which further improves to 30 5-2-4, ROI: 4.39, if you only include horses that finished greater than or equal to 6th in their last start (Richard's Delight finished 6th).

5/2 -- Sunset Boy --Leggio Andrew Jr -- Perrodin Elvis J

Trainer, Andrew Leggio, has a record of 79 22-15-14, ROI: 1.33, with jockey Elvis Perrodin. Leggio also has a record of 49 9-5-6, ROI: 1.22, when switching from dirt-to-turf. Finally, his record with horse's that won their previous race and are between 2/1 to 4/1 odds in today's race is 18 6-3-4, ROI: 1.42.

8/1 -- Laga -- Burwell Kevin C -- Guillory David

In the last three years, Kevin Burwell's record is 63 9-6-7, ROI: 1.66, at Louisiana Downs.


RACE 6 - Keeneland 7th Race

6/1 -- Phat -- King Warren L -- Mojica Orlando

Over the past three years, Warren King's overall record is 131 24-19-19, ROI: 1.21; and over the last 90 days, his record is 6 3-1-1, ROI: 2.73. Warren King also specializes in sprints, with a recod of 59 14-8-5, ROI: 1.95. Also, with jockey, Orlando Mojica, his record is 8 3-2-1, ROI: 2.05.

10/1 -- Cametoplay -- Holthus Robert E -- Judice Joseph C

Trainer, Robert Holthus's, record over the last 30 days is 16 4-2-3, ROI: 1.31. Also, when using jockey, Joseph Judice, on consective mounts, his record is 525 105-78-76, ROI: 0.95.

12/1 -- C Millie -- Smith Thomas V -- Kutz Dean

Thomas Smith has won with 19% of his starters at Keeneland (36 7-2-2, ROI: 1.12). In addition, his record with owner Thomas Nichols is 37 8-4-5, ROI: 1.14.


RACE 7 - Keeneland 8th Race

5/2 -- Kamsack -- Paasch Christopher S -- Dominguez Ramon A

Christophero Paasch has a good record when giving his horses between 31 and 45 days rest while raising them more than 40% in class from their last start (10 3-1-0, ROI: 1.35). In addition, his record with horses that were 2nd or 3rd at both the 2nd call and the finish in their last start is 32 12-3-3, ROI: 1.85.

12/1 -- Request for Parole -- Margolis Stephen R -- Judice Joseph C

When switching tracks (Request For Parole's last start was at River Downs), Stephen Margolis's record is 27 6-4-4, ROI: 2.83. In addition, Margolis's record over the last 180 days is 65 9-7-9, ROI: 1.65.

10/1 -- Harlan`s Holiday -- McPeek Kenneth G -- D`Amico Anthony J

When using jockey, Anthony D`Amico, on consecutive mounts, Kenneth McPeek's record is 91 24-13-10, ROI: 1.62.

Que
10-05-2001, 11:01 PM
RACE 8 - Belmont 9th Race


4/1 -- Manndar -- Greely C Beau -- Gomez Garrett K

Beau Greely has a record of 44 9-5-3, ROI: 2.10, with jockey Gomez Garrett. Beau Greely has been very hot over the past 180 days with a record of 71 11-6-9, ROI: 1.86; and his record in graded stakes is 49 7-5-3, ROI: 1.40. Also, Garrett Gomez's record in graded stakes is 170 31-18-26, ROI: 1.38.

6/1 -- Blu Air Force -- Frankel Robert J -- Velazquez John R

Robert Frankel also has o good record with jockey John Velazquez (12 5-0-2, ROI: 2.72). Also, Frankel has a superb record in graded stakes races with horse's returning after a layoff between 91 and 120 days, and raising 40% more in class (6 2-1-0, ROI: 1.68).

5/1 -- City Zip -- Rice Linda -- Chavez Jorge F

Don't know if City Zip will run in this race, but Linda Rice's record with first-time turf horse's is 43 11-4-5, ROI: 1.61.


RACE 9 - Turf Paradise 7th Race


3/1 -- Kiddlego -- Evans Justin -- Guerra Vince J

Justin Evans has won 24% of his claiming races over the past three years with a record of 203 49-35-28, ROI: 1.04. Evans's has also done a good job when shortening his horses up by a one-half furong (38 7-6-6, ROI: 1.11). Finally, his record with horse's between 2/1 to 4/1 in sprints is 53 20-9-6, ROI: 1.49.

5/1 -- Bo Bo Begone -- Tollett William D -- Gomez Estaban A

William Tollett's record at Turf Paradise over the past three years is 71 13-15-5, ROI: 1.15.

8/1 -- Sea Isle -- Stevens Ron -- Stevens Scott A

Ron Steven's has a good record with three year olds (34 8-4-5, ROI: 1.45).


RACE 10 - Prairie Meadows 3rd Race

15/1 -- Blumin Easy -- Gleason Timothy M -- Marcial Benjamin

Trainer Timothy Gleason has a respatcle record in Allowance races with a record of 130 22-14-17, ROI: 1.10. In addition, his record in allowance races when returning a horse with 8-14 days rest is 30 7-5-5, ROI: 1.51, and in allowance races when raising his horses more than 40% in class his recoord is 37 5-3-7, ROI: 1.14. And finally, his record when stretching horses out more than two furlongs is 47 9-4-4, ROI: 1.77.

20/1 -- Amdor`s Nick -- Lamont Warren E -- Smith Stormy

Warren Lamont's record with owner Fred Falldorf is 71 7-6-7, ROI: 1.17.

20/1 -- Mostly Four -- Hudnut Steven L -- Wellington Thomas R

Over the past three years, Jockey Thomas Wellington's overall record is 457 57-55-52, ROI: 1.00.

Good luck... Que.

Que
10-05-2001, 11:11 PM
sorry... duplicate post

Tom
10-06-2001, 01:29 PM
R# Slection Alternate

1 7 Mighty Gultch 3 Popular
2 5 Royalty Counts 8 The Fifth element
3 1 At a Premium 3 Never Hurri
4 1 Bay Head King 7 Sam Lords Castle
5 9 Asef Alhind 6 Luckofhteknight
6 2 Avalon Bay 7 Lauries Balada
7 6 Kamsack 3 Metatron
8 1 Sarafan 8 Manndar
9 2 BoBo Begone 3 Mr. Tipsy
10 4 Try for Par 11Hussien Harley


Tom

tigers1901
10-10-2001, 02:30 PM
Lost in the BRIS fiasco last weekend was Que's good
information:

R1-TACIRRING $25.80
R2-BALLET PARTNER $9.80
R5- TOP TWO SCRATCHED=$5 CONTEST WIN
R6-PHAT $19.60
R10-MOSTLY FOUR $30.80

Great job of isolating the value contenders!

lynette
10-31-2001, 12:51 PM
I'm happy to report I was the Week 2 winner, and I finished #39 overall, which according to Bris, put me in the top 1% on players....:)

JimG
10-31-2001, 06:55 PM
Originally posted by lynette
I'm happy to report I was the Week 2 winner, and I finished #39 overall, which according to Bris, put me in the top 1% on players....:)

First...welcome to the board. Secondly, your in the top 1% of players only when you profit year end and year out playing this difficult, but exhilarating game.

JimG

ridersup
10-31-2001, 08:16 PM
Lynette:

Congrats on being the winner of week 2 of the BRIS contest. I remember only one other member of this board winning the weekly contest and there are some pretty sharp cappers on this board.

Keep up the good work and keep us posted on your accomplishments.

Ridersup

Trijack
11-01-2001, 12:52 AM
Lynette,
Congralutions on being the winner of week 2 in the Bris contest. In the spring of last year I was the winner of
week 1 in the Bris contest. At least for one day you were the best out of thousands and I know what a high I was on for a whole week. Enjoy the moment. You got bragging rights for quiet awhile and by the way I have bombed out in the last two contest but no one can take away the one time that I was the best for one week.

I only play tri's and usually put 2 or 3 horses on top and I do great. I have not made a win bet in about 3 years and probable never will again. So it is a little harder for me get a race down to one horse but I keep trying in these contests.

Waiting for the next big tri that I know I will hit in spite of the smaller fields that we have here in California.

lynette
11-01-2001, 12:19 PM
Originally posted by JimG


First...welcome to the board. Secondly, your in the top 1% of players only when you profit year end and year out playing this difficult, but exhilarating game.

JimG

Hey Jim, thanks for deflating my balloon (you're in the top 1% only when...), I did say that my finish in the contest placed me in the top 1%, for the contest, I didn't claim anything more than that...just want to clarify! BTW, I believe there is an art to handicapping, just as there is an art to wagering, and one does not always translate to the other. Thanks!

JimG
11-01-2001, 06:20 PM
Hi Lynette:


I probably misread your post. It was your first post on this board (which incidentally this board has some really good horse players) and I read it differently. Actually, I'm probably just jealous since I only finished 83rd in the same contest.<g>

I agree that wagering is an art and I look forward to you sharing your ideas with others on the board. I know you are a good capper as I read YouBet board.


You'll find some real pros here...unfortunately I am a rank amateur.<g>

Again welcome...and if you need a pump to help re-inflate let me know.

JimG