Handi's New Software

[Handiman]

Been feeling quite a bit better and so decided to jump back into the fray. The creative juices have been flowing. I have a new program that I have written and while not completely done, I decided to test it just for fun. There's another module I want to add, but program works now.

PEGASUS has been under the test microscope for some time now. The results have been very encouraging. So I tested seriously this last week. 3 days which isn't diddly I know, but this is a process. Here are the test results for two days, and then the two live days.

Didn't write down the test racks...just the results....but it doesn't matter for what I'm putting this up for I believe.

1st day...
4.20 18.00
9.60
10.00
4.60
12.40
=========
40.80 126% ROI

2nd Day...
4.60 18.00
2.90
=====================
7.50 -58%

So went live last night playing with a fellow PA player to see how it would do live. Played Mountaineer.
results:
12.20 22.00

4
3.40
6.40
20.40 4
=====================
42.40 91% ROI

Played Woodbine tonight. Didn't think about posting in Selection threads until 4th race. You can go there and see how I did. But here are the results for tonight at Wood:
13.20 20.00
5.40
15.60 4
4
2.70
5.20
=====================
42.10 110% ROI

The figures on the left are the bet payouts. The top fig on right is amount wagered. The individual number 4 on right side signifies that 2 horses bet in the race.

Now I know this sample doesn't mean anything. The reason I'm posting this is to let people know I'm back in the game, for those who give a crap anyway, and to let you know you can follow along in selections because I'm going to post all my live plays for the next who knows...maybe 2 weeks or month... we'll just see how it goes.

Thanks for reading and giving a crap.

Handi:)

[Roger]

Glad to see you are feeling much better Handi! Good Luck with the new project.

Roger. :)

[Vinnie]

Handi:

Congratulations on your latest creation!! :)

I shot you a PM a couple of days ago.

Take Good Care and Keep Rock'in on...

[marksinger]

Good to see ya buddy. Where will you be posting your selections? Take care. Mark from Philly
P.S. You mentioned that you played along the other night on Mountaineer? What site were you on?

[Handiman]

Thanks Guys. I was playing live with a friend. Wasn't posting. Tonight will be playing Pen Nat. Will be posting picks in the Selections section here on PA live as we go.

Let's hope the train keeps rolling.

Handi:)

[Handiman]

I just posted how we finished today with Pegasus at Penn Nat. I am happy to report that we finished in the Black again. I have had a few people inquire about Pegasus and how I built it.

It's a bit hard to explain. I have been working on this for a long time. Tinkering in the basement as you might say. Sometimes becoming madder than the Mad Hatter. But it has been a labor of love. Even on the days I was away from racing and stuck in bed I would think and try and conceptualize Pegasus in my head.

I can say I have studied a lot of material, from 'Total Victory at The Track' ( I think that was the name of the book) to 'Pace Makes The Race' , material from Steve Wolson and many more. What I have come up with is what I call, 'Theory Handicapping' I don't use fractions, lengths behind or Paceline selection or any of that stuff. I do use one speed figure, but it comes from the same place for every horse. That's about all the figure stuff I pull from past races.

I started out thinking about Barry Bonds at the plate getting ready to hit. And went from there. I called it the Barry Bonds Model when I started. And it has grown from there. From Baseball to Horse racing...who'd a thunk it?

I can't really say much more than that right now. And if I fall on my face then I certainly won't explain any further cause who on earth wants to listen to the ramblings of a dumbass loser...:lol:

If it continues to prove out, I must confess I don't imagine I will divulge any more than I have right here. After all, who in the world would believe me anyway.

I will continue to post my picks as I play live in the selections thread. Also I made myself a promise that I would play every race because players say you can't play every race and win. Probably so. But apparently I'm just too Dumb to believe it.

Handi:)

[newtothegame]

I just posted how we finished today with Pegasus at Penn Nat. I am happy to report that we finished in the Black again. I have had a few people inquire about Pegasus and how I built it.

It's a bit hard to explain. I have been working on this for a long time. Tinkering in the basement as you might say. Sometimes becoming madder than the Mad Hatter. But it has been a labor of love. Even on the days I was away from racing and stuck in bed I would think and try and conceptualize Pegasus in my head.

I can say I have studied a lot of material, from 'Total Victory at The Track' ( I think that was the name of the book) to 'Pace Makes The Race' , material from Steve Wolson and many more. What I have come up with is what I call, 'Theory Handicapping' I don't use fractions, lengths behind or Paceline selection or any of that stuff. I do use one speed figure, but it comes from the same place for every horse. That's about all the figure stuff I pull from past races.

I started out thinking about Barry Bonds at the plate getting ready to hit. And went from there. I called it the Barry Bonds Model when I started. And it has grown from there. From Baseball to Horse racing...who'd a thunk it?

I can't really say much more than that right now. And if I fall on my face then I certainly won't explain any further cause who on earth wants to listen to the ramblings of a dumbass loser...:lol:

If it continues to prove out, I must confess I don't imagine I will divulge any more than I have right here. After all, who in the world would believe me anyway.

I will continue to post my picks as I play live in the selections thread. Also I made myself a promise that I would play every race because players say you can't play every race and win. Probably so. But apparently I'm just too Dumb to believe it.

Handi:)
Best of luck handi!!
May the racing gods bestow on you all the best!
Keep us as informed as you can without divulging too much proprietary...thanks again for your work!

[dartman51]

I started out thinking about Barry Bonds at the plate getting ready to hit. And went from there. I called it the Barry Bonds Model when I started. And it has grown from there. From Baseball to Horse racing...who'd a thunk it?



I guess it's grown into the BARRY BONDS model on STEROIDS??? :lol:

[Handiman]

Funny Guy Dart..... :lol: Pretty clever bud.


handi:)

[Handiman]

Today was a crazy day race condition wise at Belmont. But that stuff happens and so I went ahead and played it anyway. Posted my selections live in the selection thread. It was scrappy at best with every race suffering multiple scratches. And turf races were moved off on to muddy conditions.

I have committed to play every race. But I have to say on a day like today, there are just races that are not playable. So I skipped a couple or so just because throwing money away is not what this test is about.

The races we did play and bet on gave us these results. For the 4th day in a row finished in the Black.

$14.00 bet.

$23.40 returned

$9.20 profit for the day at Belmont.

67% ROI

Very satisfying result even though I whined through most of it....:lol:

Haven't selected a track for tomorrow yet, so we shall just have to see what gets chosen.

So far, Mountaineer, Woodbine, Penn Nat and now Belmont played this week. Finished in the black at each track. Will try and select another different track for tomorrow.

Handi:)

[Doug3312]

Are you preparing to sell this program when it's perfected to your liking, or is this just for your use?

Thanks,
Doug

[Handiman]

To be honest I have no idea. I haven't given it any thought since I developed this while being sick and down in bed a lot.

So I really don't know. But if it were to happen I would first become an approved PA advertiser, as I have been here since 2005 and PA allows me to test programs here live without regard to them being possible commercial efforts or not. Which they have not been in the past.

So we shall see. But first we have to prove Pegasus can hang with the big boys.

Handi:)

[Doug3312]

Thanks and good luck!

[Handiman]

So far getting my brains kicked in at SA. Lot's of 2 yo races and some G-1 and lesser G races. Maybe I didn't set Pegasus up for such young horses and expensive races. may have to go back in and see what's going on, because some picks make no sense to the human brain...:lol:


Handi:)


P.S Regardles I will post the results of my bets after all over.

[Handiman]

First of all let me say this game can humble the shit out of you like no other!

Completely got skunked today. When I tried to beat the Favs got butt kicked. When I tried to win with the Favs got my butt kicked. I guess today was meant to be an Ass kickin day :lol:

Down $32 today.
ROI (- 100%)


Now the excuses..... 2 yo races and Graded stakes races I did not set up Pegasus for those. But it still made picks and I posted them.

Hopefully back to regular man races tomorrow. Headed now to drown my sorrows at the best Taco Truck in Northern California.

All the Tacos Al Pastor I can eat.... costs just $0.33 a bite or $1.00 a taco..

There's always tomorrow....I hope anyway.

Handi:)

[Handiman]

Figured out what went wrong today at SA. The 2 yo's don't know enough about racing (translates in to experience) to allow my Theory handicapping to work and the Graded stakes races pit horses and trainers against each other that have no theoretical differences in relation to the information I am using.

So no more Graded stakes or 2 yo races with this program anyway. We'll look for crappy races tomorrow and see if we can do better. :lol:


Handi:)

[turninforhome10]

First of all let me say this game can humble the shit out of you like no other!

Completely got skunked today. When I tried to beat the Favs got butt kicked. When I tried to win with the Favs got my butt kicked. I guess today was meant to be an Ass kickin day :lol:

Down $32 today.
ROI (- 100%)


Now the excuses..... 2 yo races and Graded stakes races I did not set up Pegasus for those. But it still made picks and I posted them.

Hopefully back to regular man races tomorrow. Headed now to drown my sorrows at the best Taco Truck in Northern California.

All the Tacos Al Pastor I can eat.... costs just $0.33 a bite or $1.00 a taco..

There's always tomorrow....I hope anyway.

Handi:)


Be easy on yourself Handi, look at it this way you found a weakness and can make changes before the Breeders Cup. You were playing some of the best horses in NA and a stumble here or there means alot when playing these kind. It will all come back on Sun as the regular cast takes the stage. Good work so far. :ThmbUp:

[guckers]

What races are you considering 'regular races' that you want to win at? What's your software's most ideal race. What have you noticed are some important factors (i.e. age, conditions, previous races, purse, etc...).

[Handiman]

Regular races are almost all, except Graded stakes. Holendorfer vs baffert vs Sadler vs Sherman horses for instance are not very far apart at the G race level. The way I setup Pegasus it looks for theoretical differences Between trainers, jockeys and horses. In Graded Stakes races all the horses are the cream of the crop. As are the trainers.

2 yo races, even though the Jockey and Trainer fits my mold the horse element is not there. So that throws the whole thing off kilter.


What I developed can't make the fine distinctions between each group at those levels. When I was putting this together I did not even consider stakes races as during the year I play very few of those as they don't happen all that often in relation to most of the nags running all around the country.

I seem to do fine with everything all the way up to allowance races. From your avg 3 year old maidens up. But 2 yo's just don't figure for me. Not many Graded stakes run at Mountaineer, Presque Isle, Golden Gate, Oaklawn and all the rest. They do happen, but on a daily basis, no sir.

That's about the best I can answer. I have added a few numbers that I hope will help me with the Graded Stakes races, but time will tell.

Handi:)

[douglasw32]

It is great that you are back to coding. =) and feeling better. Good Luck

[Tom]

Nice to see someone having such a good time playing races, too.
Way to go Handiman! :ThmbUp:

[Handiman]

Thanks guys! It's nice to be on top of a mountain instead of deep in a valley. I figured out why they call these the 'Golden Years'... it's cause you need a shitload of Gold to get through them.

Getting old is not for wimps I can tell ya that.... :lol:



Handi:)

[Handiman]

A very interesting day. Played Turf Paradise and then Mountaineer. Here's how we did.

$54 bet

$47 returned

- 13% ROI

Had I not had my head in my ass cooking dinner trying to watch the Jets game and play horses at the same time, maybe, just maybe I would have done the right thing in the last race and we'd be posting in the black.

But after yesterday, and the tweaks I made last night, I feel a bit better. Finishing down $7 is no big shakes. There's always tomorrow.

Handi:)

[Handiman]

Today was not good. Middle of the races my power went out and so I couldn't finish. And it cost me dearly as I would have hit a monster in race 7 as the 3 was my top horse. Sure it was Handi :lol: Know what it sounds like but it was.

The other thing that is killing me, is I couldn't structure a bet to save my life. But I have a solution for that now, but that's for another thread.

$18.00 Bet

$4.20 Returned

- 76% ROI

Tomorrow will be better. The new plan kicks in but the software stays the same.

Handi:)

[guckers]

Does your app use money management? How are you determining how much to bet (confidence/risk?)

Care to keep a running total on how your doing overall, this would be neat to track.

[Handiman]

No it doesn't. Unfortunately I have been on this quest to find the 'holy grail' where I can hit every race. I know it's nuts and I'm jousting with windmills, but I can't help it, it's what drives me I guess.

As a result I haven't concentrated on the side of betting and am almost a complete newbie even after 25 years of handicapping. Part of it is I love writing software and do more of that than really playing.

But I am changing my strategy as of tomorrow. I have written a bet calculator for players who like WPS or bets across the board on one horse. I was just about to put up a thread about it. It's really cool, and actually works... so not sure why I haven't just stuck with it.

Hope that answers your questions.

Handi:)

[guckers]

Part of it is I love writing software and do more of that than really playing.

You and me both... I haven't bet a dollar on a race yet and I'm a complete newb when it comes to handicapping, but I'm committed to building my db up and developing an app to go with it, as I love this kind of stuff. It's coming along, with its share of head banging, but once done, I'll have lots of glorious data.

What's your programming language of choice?

[Handiman]

Very cool Quickers. I use Liberty Basic. It's simple yet it allows me to write windows programs without knowing very much windows crap.

[Handiman]

Played Mountaineer tonight and let the reigns out on Pegasus and let her run free. Switched strategy as I said we would and used Bet Magic for bets and only played 1 horse. You can go look in selections section and see each play as it was posted.

Here are the numbers:

Hit 6 winners out of 9 with one horse. Pegasus' top pick. Played it across the board.

Finished up: $126.80 In the other non winning 3 races our horse finished 2nd...3rd.... and out.

Don't expect the software to do this all the time for sure. But it sure felt good tonight!:jump:


Handi:)

[Handiman]

I put a pace module in the software last night and had fair results tonight. I have to learn to read the pace picture in the software now. Hopefully getting closer to a really useful tool I'll understand.

Handi:)

[Handiman]

Used the new pace module tonight in contest for Mountaineer. Finished in 7th out of 67 players. Format was 2 horse wps. I had 5 winners out of my top 2 picks. So very happy with the new module, at least so far. We'll have to see how it holds up.


Handi:)