Hansen

[point given]

Turfway Juvenile stakes was won in impressive fashion today by 13 by a white blur who goes by the name of Hansen. You all might see him in the BC but its iffy as the Juvy Turfway race was ungraded. Take a look at the replay if you can as he was running in a different area code than the overmatched field going 2 turns in only his 2nd lifetime race after winnin his first by 12
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNUyr8MyMHs

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-cup-hansen-takes-star-turn-juvenile-romp-turfway

[JustRalph]

Weird gate on that one.

[Shelby]

I didn't think he would be able to keep that pace up at that distance.

I was sorely mistaken.

Very impressive.

[nijinski]

At least the clockers can't miss him. Not often do you see a tb grey that young that white.

[toussaud]

http://files.sharenator.com/im_chris_hansen_for_dateline_nbc_why_28506_1254879 749_1_RE_Anne_Hathaway_is_Hot-s333x500-195719.jpg

[PaceAdvantage]

23.83
23.08
24.57
27.20!!!
7.15

I don't play Turfway...but it would seem to me that this horse hit a brick wall between the 6f and mile mark...not a terribly good sign going forward....I know he quickened up during the second quarter of the race, but still...over 27 seconds it took going from the 3/4 to the mile mark?

And then it took over 7 seconds to run the last 1/16th?

[cj]

I remember a time when this was a big day on the national racing scene. It was long ago, a much "dirtier" time.

[JustRalph]

23.83
23.08
24.57
27.20!!!
7.15

I don't play Turfway...but it would seem to me that this horse hit a brick wall between the 6f and mile mark...not a terribly good sign going forward....I know he quickened up during the second quarter of the race, but still...over 27 seconds it took going from the 3/4 to the mile mark?

And then it took over 7 seconds to run the last 1/16th?

when I watched it I went back to see the last 1/16th time, I noted that too. It looked to me like he was done..........just visually. might be a great 7F horse

[Leparoux]

when I watched it I went back to see the last 1/16th time, I noted that too. It looked to me like he was done..........just visually. might be a great 7F horse
Let's keep in mind this was his second race... EVER. I was there yesterday and it was special to watch. I think he goes to the BC for sure.

[FantasticDan]

Here's his debut race:

Sxct8B9yaOs

[Edward DeVere]

23.83
23.08
24.57
27.20!!!
7.15

I don't play Turfway...but it would seem to me that this horse hit a brick wall between the 6f and mile mark...not a terribly good sign going forward....I know he quickened up during the second quarter of the race, but still...over 27 seconds it took going from the 3/4 to the mile mark?

And then it took over 7 seconds to run the last 1/16th?

Mike Watchmaker of DRF points out that those early fractions were very fast for the day.

[JustRalph]

Let's keep in mind this was his second race... EVER. I was there yesterday and it was special to watch. I think he goes to the BC for sure.

Point taken

[classhandicapper]

Mike Watchmaker of DRF points out that those early fractions were very fast for the day.

That's always an interesting debate.

Did the horse run slow late because he ran so fast early?

Is he the horse the kind of speed horse that will always run faster than average early and then slow down late?

Is he the kind of horse that will have trouble finishing fast at longer distances even if he rates well on or just off the lead?

[point given]

Mike Watchmaker of DRF points out that those early fractions were very fast for the day.

Thanks for the Watchmaker comment , here is his take from his blog

" also want to say a brief word about Hansen, the flashy grey, Mike Maker-trained Tapit colt who won his debut at Turfway Park early this month by just over 12 lengths, and who came back to win Saturday’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway by just over 13 lengths.
Now, before anyone goes too overboard on Hansen, keep in mind these three things: He has yet to race on dirt, the field he beat Saturday was weak, and despite the fact that he ran away from his opposition through the stretch Saturday, he was actually a tired horse. Just look at the late fractions. But Hansen had a right to be tired late in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, and that is part of the reason why he is intriguing.

Hansen set the pace again Saturday, posting fractions of 23.83, 46.91, and 1:11.48. His pace was much faster than the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies pace (24.12, 48.30, and 1:14.10), or what older females went in the Distaff (24.48, 48.43, and 1:12.73). Hansen’s pace was even faster than what older males went in the ostensible feature, the WinStar Kentucky Cup (24.47, 47.97, and 1:11.82). That Hansen, off of only one sprint race, can set that kind of pace going two turns and still win by a double digit margin regardless of what he was up against makes him, for now, at least, one to keep an eye on. "

[papillon]

it'is exasperating that hansen is getting poo-pooed, given that the farthest any of watchmaker's top five 2 year olds has gone so far is 6 furlongs, and that there is a world of difference between 6 furlongs and a mile and 1/16, and given that hansen went a mile and 1/16 in only his 2nd start, after having just raced 2 weeks before, while under a hand ride the entire way and setting some of the fastest internal fractions of the day. it doesn't really matter that hansen beat nothing--he was running his own race from start to finish, after taking the lead from the far outside post.

his final time may have been uninspiring, but he wasn't asked for anything in the stretch--and really, who, besides a sadist would press a horse for a showy time, when you've already got the race in hand by a baker's dozen?

if he's the real deal, he will be god-send for the sport--the general public will fall in love with this rare white thoroughbred (i know he's really grey, but he's the palest grey 2 yr old i've ever seen, and will probably be truly white by the KY derby), who runs with abandon, leaving the field far behind him. he's like something out of a disney movie.

anyway, i have a feeling that if hansen had done this in ny, he'd be hailed the next jesus-horse. after all THAS only had to win one allowance race after having been soundly beaten repeatedly, for no reason other than that he sucked, by the other 3 yr olds last spring, in order to be reborn as the next worldbeater and catapulted to the 3rd best 3 yo just for winning one race while carrying 10 lbs less weight than the fast closing 2nd (who didn't do anything all year but win the belmont ffs)....i have to go back to following racing in bubble...the want of logic and excess of hypocrisy does nothing but upset me... :bang:

[Valuist]

Thanks for the Watchmaker comment , here is his take from his blog

" also want to say a brief word about Hansen, the flashy grey, Mike Maker-trained Tapit colt who won his debut at Turfway Park early this month by just over 12 lengths, and who came back to win Saturday’s Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway by just over 13 lengths.
Now, before anyone goes too overboard on Hansen, keep in mind these three things: He has yet to race on dirt, the field he beat Saturday was weak, and despite the fact that he ran away from his opposition through the stretch Saturday, he was actually a tired horse. Just look at the late fractions. But Hansen had a right to be tired late in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, and that is part of the reason why he is intriguing.

Hansen set the pace again Saturday, posting fractions of 23.83, 46.91, and 1:11.48. His pace was much faster than the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies pace (24.12, 48.30, and 1:14.10), or what older females went in the Distaff (24.48, 48.43, and 1:12.73). Hansen’s pace was even faster than what older males went in the ostensible feature, the WinStar Kentucky Cup (24.47, 47.97, and 1:11.82). That Hansen, off of only one sprint race, can set that kind of pace going two turns and still win by a double digit margin regardless of what he was up against makes him, for now, at least, one to keep an eye on. "

I agree. The pace that Hansen set was very fast; much faster than the 2 older horse stakes at same distance. Also, its not surprising for 2 year olds stretching out to decelerate significantly. And its even more impressive to do it over that tiring surface at TP. I'd be surprised if this horse didn't take to dirt. The Distaff winner, despite a much slower opening 1/2, came from dead last to win.

[the little guy]

and given that hansen went a mile and 1/16 in only his 2nd start, after having just raced 2 weeks before, while under a hand ride the entire way and setting some of the fastest internal fractions of the day. it doesn't really matter that hansen beat nothing--he was running his own race from start to finish, after taking the lead from the far outside post.

his final time may have been uninspiring, but he wasn't asked for anything in the stretch--and really, who, besides a sadist would press a horse for a showy time, when you've already got the race in hand by a baker's dozen?

if he's the real deal, he will be god-send for the sport--the general public will fall in love with this rare white thoroughbred (i know he's really grey, but he's the palest grey 2 yr old i've ever seen, and will probably be truly white by the KY derby), who runs with abandon, leaving the field far behind him. he's like something out of a disney movie.

anyway, i have a feeling that if hansen had done this in ny, he'd be hailed the next jesus-horse. after all THAS only had to win one allowance race after having been soundly beaten repeatedly, for no reason other than that he sucked, by the other 3 yr olds last spring, in order to be reborn as the next worldbeater and catapulted to the 3rd best 3 yo just for winning one race while carrying 10 lbs less weight than the fast closing 2nd (who didn't do anything all year but win the belmont ffs)....i have to go back to following racing in bubble...the want of logic and excess of hypocrisy does nothing but upset me... :bang:

I'll address the emboldened comments in order...

He was ridden and whipped through the stretch.

The above also applies to the second comment.

No he won't. In case you're not aware, there is currently an exceptional grey filly racing, named Winter Memories, and so far, she hasn't exactly been a godsend for the sport.

And, finally, if he were racing in NY he would be getting a similar reception....a promising 2YO that is likely looking better than he is because of the poor competition he has faced. Comparing his effort to that of To Honor and Serve on 8/26 only proves further how off base you are. To Honor and Serve was involved in wicked fast fractions, so fast that the other speed, a horse that routinely runs figures in the mid to high 80s, was virtually eased, and still drew off to an authoritative and fast victory. He followed that up with a fairly impressive win in the PA Derby.

Henri Charriere would not be pleased.

[Cardus]

it'is exasperating that hansen is getting poo-pooed, given that the farthest any of watchmaker's top five 2 year olds has gone so far is 6 furlongs, and that there is a world of difference between 6 furlongs and a mile and 1/16, and given that hansen went a mile and 1/16 in only his 2nd start, after having just raced 2 weeks before, while under a hand ride the entire way and setting some of the fastest internal fractions of the day. it doesn't really matter that hansen beat nothing--he was running his own race from start to finish, after taking the lead from the far outside post.

his final time may have been uninspiring, but he wasn't asked for anything in the stretch--and really, who, besides a sadist would press a horse for a showy time, when you've already got the race in hand by a baker's dozen?

if he's the real deal, he will be god-send for the sport--the general public will fall in love with this rare white thoroughbred (i know he's really grey, but he's the palest grey 2 yr old i've ever seen, and will probably be truly white by the KY derby), who runs with abandon, leaving the field far behind him. he's like something out of a disney movie.

anyway, i have a feeling that if hansen had done this in ny, he'd be hailed the next jesus-horse. after all THAS only had to win one allowance race after having been soundly beaten repeatedly, for no reason other than that he sucked, by the other 3 yr olds last spring, in order to be reborn as the next worldbeater and catapulted to the 3rd best 3 yo just for winning one race while carrying 10 lbs less weight than the fast closing 2nd (who didn't do anything all year but win the belmont ffs)....i have to go back to following racing in bubble...the want of logic and excess of hypocrisy does nothing but upset me... :bang:

Your post is like something out of the Zenyatta Internet Land era.

[OTM Al]

I'll address the emboldened comments in order...

He was ridden and whipped through the stretch.

The above also applies to the second comment.

No he won't. In case you're not aware, there is currently an exceptional grey filly racing, named Winter Memories, and so far, she hasn't exactly been a godsend for the sport.

And, finally, if he were racing in NY he would be getting a similar reception....a promising 2YO that is likely looking better than he is because of the poor competition he has faced. Comparing his effort to that of To Honor and Serve on 8/26 only proves further how off base you are. To Honor and Serve was involved in wicked fast fractions, so fast that the other speed, a horse that routinely runs figures in the mid to high 80s, was virtually eased, and still drew off to an authoritative and fast victory. He followed that up with a fairly impressive win in the PA Derby.

Henri Charriere would not be pleased.

I'm shocked you didn't address the fact that horses don't "become" white, they are registered that way or not, but then there was a lot of ground to cover here as it was....a lot of ground.

[Not4Love]

Please tell me the horses that have actually gone on to productive careers
after winning the kentucky juvenile. SINCE THE INTALLATION OF POLYCRAP!!!!!! This discussion is a joke. Please wake up and realize that Polycrap is ruining horses.

[toussaud]

Please tell me the horses that have actually gone on to productive careers
after winning the kentucky juvenile. SINCE THE INTALLATION OF POLYCRAP!!!!!! This discussion is a joke. Please wake up and realize that Polycrap is ruining horses.
i can name quite a few horses that were very good on "polycrap" as 2 YO's, including last year's 3YO horse of the year.

I hope you aren't this bias when handicapping.



edit: Actually i do hope you are this bias when it comes to handicapping.

[FantasticDan]

I'm shocked you didn't address the fact that horses don't "become" white, they are registered that way or not, but then there was a lot of ground to cover here as it was....a lot of ground.I think papillon was simply saying that Hansen is a very white "grey", and will likely get even lighter/whiter, as that is common in greys as they mature.

Hansen is a very interesting and talented young colt. His connections certainly seem over the moon with him. Not sure what else needs to be said..?

[the little guy]

I think papillon was simply saying that Hansen is a very white "grey", and will likely get even lighter/whiter, as that is common in greys as they mature.

Hansen is a very interesting and talented young colt. His connections certainly seem over the moon with him. Not sure what else needs to be said..?


What's wrong with a sane and reasonable analysis of his performance?

To me, over the top, irrational exhuberance serves nobody well, and certainly not novices. Honest critical analysis of horse races, as well as individual performances, is far more likely to help the game than an unrealistic assessment ever will. We need people to bet in an informed manner, one that is less likely to discourage them in the long run, and pretending horses are performing in manners that they quite simply aren't is not going to achieve that goal.

Here are two scenerios....the uninformed are told that Hansen is some sort of superhorse, one that flies like Pegasus, under no urging whatsoever. He runs next in the BC, shows unrestrained speed, doesn't particularly handle the dirt, and gets drowned. The misled novices shake their head over this unpredictable game, disappointed once again.

Now the second scenerio....Hansen's performance is described reasonably accurately, his fast early pace is explained along with the slow final time. His supposed easy victory is actually shown to not have been quite as easy, and his margin of victory is shown to be as much a function of his competition as anything else. The surface question is also accurately explained. Now, he comes into the BC as a possibly overbet, and vulnerable, entrant. Because of this explanation, when he invariably disappoints, people are encouraged that the game is not as inexplicable as they might have thought, they might even win some money, and thus are more likely to continue playing in the future.

Yeah, I get that my explanations are overkill.....but I also know that you are far better off explaining things logically and intelligently to beginners than feeding them misleading information.

[JustRalph]

Please tell me the horses that have actually gone on to productive careers
after winning the kentucky juvenile. SINCE THE INTALLATION OF POLYCRAP!!!!!! This discussion is a joke. Please wake up and realize that Polycrap is ruining horses.

Hard spun in the Lanes End Stakes........is as close I can get off the top of my head

[toussaud]

his pedigree is quite interesting.

Tapit can get you a good dirt horse, but the horses he throws seem to really do take to the turf/polytrack

even more interesting is his damside. The exact opposite. They are all dirt horses. HIs dam, his half sister, heck even sir cat if i am not mistaken is the sire of surf cat, the old Bruce Headly horse that hit an absolute brick wall in California the day they went from dirt to polytrack.

Looking at the overall picture i don't think the dirt would be my biggest concern with him. it's there but it's not by biggest concern. The talent level is my biggest concern.

[toussaud]

Hard spun in the Lanes End Stakes........is as close I can get off the top of my head
umm... animal kingdom?

[Cardus]

What's wrong with a sane and reasonable analysis of his performance?

To me, over the top, irrational exhuberance serves nobody well, and certainly not novices. Honest critical analysis of horse races, as well as individual performances, is far more likely to help the game than an unrealistic assessment ever will. We need people to bet in an informed manner, one that is less likely to discourage them in the long run, and pretending horses are performing in manners that they quite simply aren't is not going to achieve that goal.

Here are two scenerios....the uninformed are told that Hansen is some sort of superhorse, one that flies like Pegasus, under no urging whatsoever. He runs next in the BC, shows unrestrained speed, doesn't particularly handle the dirt, and gets drowned. The misled novices shake their head over this unpredictable game, disappointed once again.

Now the second scenerio....Hansen's performance is described reasonably accurately, his fast early pace is explained along with the slow final time. His supposed easy victory is actually shown to not have been quite as easy, and his margin of victory is shown to be as much a function of his competition as anything else. The surface question is also accurately explained. Now, he comes into the BC as a possibly overbet, and vulnerable, entrant. Because of this explanation, when he invariably disappoints, people are encouraged that the game is not as inexplicable as they might have thought, they might even win some money, and thus are more likely to continue playing in the future.

Yeah, I get that my explanations are overkill.....but I also know that you are far better off explaining things logically and intelligently to beginners than feeding them misleading information.

Amen bruddah!

[GlenninOhio]

I'll address the emboldened comments in order...

He was ridden and whipped through the stretch.

The above also applies to the second comment.



I watched the stretch drive live from the rail on the apron and, to use the Kentucky vernacular, that horse wasn't just whipped, he was "whupped".

Seriously, I was surprised at the extent to which he was ridden out, to the point where I felt the connections would (or should) find fault with it. If you watch the replay, Lebron looks back late and makes a feeble attempt to make the horse looked "covered up" for a stride or two shy of the finish line, which fooled no one.

[the little guy]

I watched the stretch drive live from the rail on the apron and, to use the Kentucky vernacular, that horse wasn't just whipped, he was "whupped".

Seriously, I was surprised at the extent to which he was ridden out, to the point where I felt the connections would (or should) find fault with it. If you watch the replay, Lebron looks back late and makes a feeble attempt to make the horse looked "covered up" for a stride or two shy of the finish line, which fooled no one.


I guess that will make it easier for the connections to get a top rider for the BC.

[FantasticDan]

What's wrong with a sane and reasonable analysis of his performance?

Watchmaker's comments were quoted earlier; I find them completely "sane and reasonable".. to sum up: let's not get carried away etc, but Hansen is nonetheless intriguing. While you've already dismissed Hansen as a horse that will "invariably disappoint", others choose to believe he might actually turn out to be very good, or daresay, something special. At this point I'd say the jury is still out on either estimation. But other than the one poster, nobody on this thread could be described as going over the top or being irrational.

Hansen got an 89 Beyer for his first race.. what was the # for this last one? Have there been many 2yos thus far that can top those numbers?

[point given]

A little more background stuff from Tom Lamarra at the Bloodhorse on the buzz horse Hansen ,and his human connections Doc Hansen

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65191/hansen-brings-buzz-back-to-turfway-park

[FantasticDan]

From that Bloodhorse article:

In the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Hansen was on cruise control. He reopened his lead on the far turn and was only mildly urged by Lebron in mid-stretch.

As others noted, Lebron was all over Hansen in the stretch despite the significant leading margin. Even the chart reads: drew off in the strech and was under heavy pressure to the wire.

Hansen may have indeed been in cruise control, but Lebron rode him like they were biting at his heels.

[OTM Al]

Big BSF of 80 awarded for this one. Well, better than Astrology got all of his 2yo campaign, so I can see how this guy could be the next wonder horse...

[cj]

Big BSF of 80 awarded for this one. Well, better than Astrology got all of his 2yo campaign, so I can see how this guy could be the next wonder horse...

One word of caution on the 80 figure...polytrack.

[OTM Al]

One word of caution on the 80 figure...polytrack.

True, though the race was not run in a turfish manner, so would take it as a little more to the dirt/legit side than an average poly generated number.

[FantasticDan]

The pace that Hansen set was very fast; much faster than the 2 older horse stakes at same distance. Also, its not surprising for 2 year olds stretching out to decelerate significantly. And its even more impressive to do it over that tiring surface at TP. I'd be surprised if this horse didn't take to dirt.He has three bullet 5F works over the Churchill training track, so I also think he'll handle dirt fine.

[the little guy]

He has three bullet 5F works over the Churchill training track, so I also think he'll handle dirt fine.


He might handle dirt just fine but working and racing are two completely different things.

[cj]

True, though the race was not run in a turfish manner, so would take it as a little more to the dirt/legit side than an average poly generated number.

I hear you, but sometimes that just doesn't matter. In any case, he needs to learn to rate way better than he does to beat real competition on any surface.

[5k-claim]

He might handle dirt just fine but working and racing are two completely different things."Completely different"? For Hansen?

No they aren't.

.

[the little guy]

"Completely different"? For Hansen?

No they aren't.

.


There is both a good and needed answer.

[OTM Al]

I hear you, but sometimes that just doesn't matter. In any case, he needs to learn to rate way better than he does to beat real competition on any surface.

In the end, of course, that's the trick in the interpretation. For my part I do not wish to have a hype parade form around this where I have to hear "Hmmmm-Bop" performed when it comes to TC prep time.

[FantasticDan]

For my part I do not wish to have a hype parade form around this where I have to hear "Hmmmm-Bop" performed when it comes to TC prep time.That's Hanson.. there's a distinction. ;)

[PhantomOnTour]

That's Hanson.. there's a distinction. ;)
You're not supposed to know that.

[gm10]

There's a problem with synthetic surfaces (from my own point of view). In the early days, you had to find the horses with a bit of tactical and a lot of late speed, which is something I'm better at than most. These days, most of the synthetic surfaces behave not unlike traditional dirt. If I'm not mistaken, race 2, 6, 7, 11 and 12 were all won by horses on the lead. In races 3, 4 and 10, the winner was within a length of the lead.

So I'm not inclined to give extra credit to the winner for going wire to wire on the poly. My numbers don't indicate anything special either. The early/middle numbers are good but not that hot, and in that respect, the late number was very moderate, frankly.

As an aside. I saw that Winter Memories was mentioned earlier. My view on her ... she's not that good. Her late speed hasn't been that impressive on the occasions that she couldn't get an easy fraction at some point in the race. As a result, I've never been able to record a great speed figure for her.

[nijinski]

his pedigree is quite interesting.

Tapit can get you a good dirt horse, but the horses he throws seem to really do take to the turf/polytrack

even more interesting is his damside. The exact opposite. They are all dirt horses. HIs dam, his half sister, heck even sir cat if i am not mistaken is the sire of surf cat, the old Bruce Headly horse that hit an absolute brick wall in California the day they went from dirt to polytrack.

Looking at the overall picture i don't think the dirt would be my biggest concern with him. it's there but it's not by biggest concern. The talent level is my biggest concern.
Broodmare sire Sir Cat dominated on turf . The scenerio here could follow Stately Victor. We'll have to see how Maker handles the transition with Hansen .

[jorcus]

Yes, The trouble seems to be with hind end. He pretty much Rabbit hops the whole race with the back end although the front end seems to go ok. Hard to tell if he ever changed to his right lead on the back stretch.

I am not a big backer of horses going from Poly to dirt off a serious race. Yes I know it's not impossible but I have seen a lot of short priced horses finish up the track making that move.


Weird gate on that one.

[classhandicapper]

My guess is that if he finds another soft spot and rates a little better he'll record a much faster figure than 80 on dirt assuming he likes it (maybe into the 90s). However, he's very unlikely to get those conditions again if they think they have a serious racehorse and want to test him. More likely he's going to have to outrun another quality speed horse to get the lead and then repulse a couple of bids on the turn or late. Right now, I think he's intriguing, but I'd probably be looking to bet against him if he faced top dirt horses.

[JustRalph]

Yes, The trouble seems to be with hind end. He pretty much Rabbit hops the whole race with the back end although the front end seems to go ok. Hard to tell if he ever changed to his right lead on the back stretch.

I am not a big backer of horses going from Poly to dirt off a serious race. Yes I know it's not impossible but I have seen a lot of short priced horses finish up the track making that move.

Poly to dirt at Churchill has resulted in a few big prices this year

[PaceAdvantage]

anyway, i have a feeling that if hansen had done this in ny, he'd be hailed the next jesus-horse. No...I'd still be pointing out how slow he was running late...

And if the jock was asking him late (which, apparently, he was), do you really think he would have run markedly faster? I don't.

[Tom]

Poly to dirt at Churchill has resulted in a few big prices this year

Yeah, and you are STILL celebrating, right? :D :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Market Mover]

his pedigree is quite interesting.

Tapit can get you a good dirt horse, but the horses he throws seem to really do take to the turf/polytrack

even more interesting is his damside. The exact opposite. They are all dirt horses. HIs dam, his half sister, heck even sir cat if i am not mistaken is the sire of surf cat, the old Bruce Headly horse that hit an absolute brick wall in California the day they went from dirt to polytrack.

Looking at the overall picture i don't think the dirt would be my biggest concern with him. it's there but it's not by biggest concern. The talent level is my biggest concern.



How Dr. Hansen got Tapit to cover his ex-$5k claimer is beyond me....did he provide some free pain management treatment sessions for the stallion's owners.?

[GlenninOhio]

How Dr. Hansen got Tapit to cover his ex-$5k claimer is beyond me....did he provide some free pain management treatment sessions for the stallion's owners.?

Make that two covers from Tapit for that mare.

On that same Kentucky Cup day card, two races prior to Hansen's win, Tapanna - a 3 year old full brother to Hansen - won a maiden special going a mile. He stalked 4-5 lengths back before taking command near the quarter pole.

Tapanna earned an 88 Beyer compared to Hansen's 80. He ran the mile in 1:38.33 compared to Hansen's 1:45.83 for the 1-1/16 miles. Fractions were much slower - 6f in 1:12.96 compared to 1:11.48 for Hansen.

Tapanna was not the favorite - a James Baker trained colt coming off a 2nd place finish at Saratoga went off at 6-5. Tapanna beat Baker's horse by 2-1/4, then it was 11 lengths back to 3rd place.

FYI, the Kentucky Cup Classic Beyer was 91.

[FantasticDan]

bump

Hansen "locked and loaded" for BC start:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/65955/hansen-on-hansen-hes-locked-and-loaded

[papillon]

No...I'd still be pointing out how slow he was running late...

And if the jock was asking him late (which, apparently, he was), do you really think he would have run markedly faster? I don't.

hhmmm, maybe...

i watched the race in person, and i've watched the replay a dozen times--i agree with tom lamarra that the horse was on cruise control--if you and others disagree, fine.

btw, how many times did you count that he was whipped in the stretch in all that serious late asking of which you speak?

i counted a whopping 4 times that the jock went to the whip (left handed) at the top of the stretch after the turn (where he had gone to it right handed few times in quick succession, as the other horses seemed on the verge of catching up), then it seemed to me that he sat pretty still until he twirled the whip as they crossed the finish line.

i don't know if hansen would have gone faster if seriously asked late. based on what i saw, he wasn't seriously asked ever in that race--he ran his own race from start to finish.

but i do know that for a second lifetime start, and for a start that came only 2 weeks after his previous race, and for a race that went 23.8, 23. 1, and 24.1 for the the first three quarters, and the fact that many two year olds have trouble maintaining speed for longer than 6-7 furlongs (because they are still just wee little babies after all)--the race was pretty impressive, and plenty of folks who get paid to tell people what they think about races, agree with me on that. as i said before, if you don't agree, fine.

but i also still feel that the level of poo-pooing the horse and the race in this thread was not reasonable, nor was it rational (to paraphrase one of the posters), it was disproportionate. and based on comments by those same people regarding other horses in other threads, a tad hypocritical too. but i am happy that i provided so many of you source to pile on and earn points in your quest to "win the internet" and bond with each other. you've got a long way to go to catch up with 4 chan but you'll get there eventually.

to the pedant calling me a beginner--i've been around horses and tracks since i was baby (foolish pleasure and I were born on the same exact day in the same exact year). pro-tip: the dixie union colt is far more likely to cause the general public to loose money and faith in this sport, than hansen is, given that dixie unions don't tend to like to go very long at all. you might want to add pedigree analayis to your fair and balanced pedantry next time (but hey, union rags raced well in NY going 6 furlongs, and breeding...well, pish posh, i know right?).

to the person who made the comment about horses "becoming white"-- i acknowledged that hansen is a grey in my post. but all greys progressively fade with age, even dark ones like monarchos--here he is then: http://www.homeonthenorthshore.com/Monarchos.html (handsome fellow, huh?), and here he is now: http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/sr_sire_page.asp?refno=4475639&origin=link (that's "white" in my book).

and here is hansen: http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Hansen (he's only a smidge away from "white" now, so maybe by the time the KY derby roles around, he will be even whiter, ergo, to the vast unwashed multitudes both denigrated and protected by the same posters in this thread (and sometimes even in the same post), he'll be the "white horse flying on the front.") i realize that hansen will always officially be a grey, but that doesn't mean he won't really be white. it's kind of like cherokee purple tomatoes, they aren't really purple tbh, they're red, but they're classified as purple in seed catalogs. funny how that works, huh?

anywho--i'll take my 10-1 on hansen in the BCJ and full responsibility for misleading the millions of people who never saw my post about the possibility that, should hansen turn out to be the real deal come TC time, that they're in for treat and in danger of losing their hearts. gosh darn, who would have thought that little old me could singlehandedly disillusion a nation....

:5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: :5: at 10-1

[tbwinner]

I'm not a big believer in Hansen. I still think poly performances can be blown out of proportion and this may likely be the case with Hansen. To me, and you can argue as you have above, he hasn't proven anything to me.

Creative Cause for me. Excelled in last race going 2 turns and has favorable sheets pattern leading into this race. I think I'll likely get 7-2 or 4-1 on him...Union Rags will be at ML and I do think Hansen will be bet down to 5-1 or 6-1.

[Robert Fischer]

he didn't appear to tire badly to me. I thought he finished well on a tiring surface. That is a solid finish without even considering that he blitzed the field from start to finish.

However, I prefer horses who can relax and rate. It takes more energy to blaze through fractions without relaxing.

he did some good things in the race and a bad thing. Nothing bad enough that I would toss him, but potentially problematic if it continues or worsens.

he is pumped up, but doesn't seem to be as tall as some of the classic distance horses.

I do not count the turfway track against him at all. However the high knee on the right lead and the hard way of going fit a poly track if turfway's surface is actually kind.

Maker also had a bunch of horses explode that day besides Hansen... He won the allowance by 7, the MSW horse that won the mile in very good time, and later he won the 100k sprint with a horse who ran a good 6f time.

If he does manage to go out on his own in the 2nd quarter in this race, it should hurt some of the other all out speed, and aid those who can relax and stalk those secondary speed horses and go get Hansen at the top of the stretch.

[Leparoux]

I don't know who is going to go with him early. If he makes a somewhat easy lead, watch out. He was extremely visually impressive at TP on KY Cup day. I'm looking forward to this one.

[toetoe]

Will he move forward ? I think it's probable. My main play will be Drill; maybe a little sump'm-sump'm for Hansen.

[nijinski]

Papillon ,albeit most know Hansen is officially grey . he is rare though . You just don't see that many two year olds on the track at age two looking that white.
I also want to mention since you brought up knowledge and breeding that
Union Rags may have some stamina from Tempo . I watched Tempo's dam many years ago and that one could run all day. We'll have to wait and see .

[papillon]

how you like them apples?

[Reezy]

Boy they gave union rags the zenyatta treatment.. act like he's the greatest horse ever after three races

[cj]

Boy they gave union rags the zenyatta treatment.. act like he's the greatest horse ever after three races

To be fair, he probably was the best in that race. The best horse doesn't always win. Nice effort by the winner though.

[Leparoux]

To be fair, he probably was the best in that race. The best horse doesn't always win. Nice effort by the winner though.

10 had EVERY chance to go by. Ran a little further but no excuse IMO. Hansen is much, much better than many gave him credit for.

[slew101]

Didn't think Hansen could win this, but as soon as LeDuca said people betting on him were part of "amateur hour" I should of reconsidered.

10 had EVERY chance to go by. Ran a little further but no excuse IMO. Hansen is much, much better than many gave him credit for.

[Reezy]

Im not saying he wasn't the best in the race.. im just saying they are acting like him losing was the biggest shock ever.. they went straight to his rider for an interview.. give hanson the attention he deserves

[cj]

10 had EVERY chance to go by. Ran a little further but no excuse IMO. Hansen is much, much better than many gave him credit for.

If 8 to 10 lengths is a little further, I guess it isn't an excuse. Hansen ran well today, but I don't think anyone with good knowledge of the game would conclude he was the better horse today or going forward.

[cj]

Didn't think Hansen could win this, but as soon as LeDuca said people betting on him were part of "amateur hour" I should of reconsidered.

How about Trevor with his "they couldn't be going any faster" then seeing 23+ 47+ fractions hit the board. Just shut up and call the action.

[cj]

.. give hanson the attention he deserves

Does that attention include spelling his name correctly?

[Burls]

UR ran 78 feet further, but H led the whole way. ...
That's a pretty hard run for both of them.

[Reezy]

Does that attention include spelling his name correctly?

My spelling as nothing to do with my point..

[cj]

My spelling as nothing to do with my point..

It was just a joke, but it also shows how he was overlooked by many. He is a horse, he'll be ok.

[Leparoux]

If 8 to 10 lengths is a little further, I guess it isn't an excuse. Hansen ran well today, but I don't think anyone with good knowledge of the game would conclude he was the better horse today or going forward.
Union Rags probably has more going forward but was not the best today IMO.

10 ran longer distance but a lot of that was him being tired and lacking tactical speed mid race. 5 gutted out a victory, tip your hat and move on.

[cj]

UR ran 78 feet further, but H led the whole way. ...
That's a pretty hard run for both of them.

Since when is the lead, a clear lead, a disadvantage, particularly for a 2 year old?

[cj]

Union Rags probably has more going forward but was not the best today IMO.

10 ran longer distance but a lot of that was him being tired and lacking tactical speed mid race. 5 gutted out a victory, tip your hat and move on.

I did, twice, say he ran very well. But we are allowed to express opinions here, right?

[Leparoux]

UR ran 78 feet further, but H led the whole way. ...
That's a pretty hard run for both of them.
Thank you.

[Leparoux]

I did, twice, say he ran very well. But we are allowed to express opinions here, right?
Absolutely... I did and I was told that I was lacking in knowledge of the game for doing so.

[Spiderman]

how you like them apples?

Just fine.

[Pell Mell]

Thank you.

Don't you know your pissing into the wind here..how dare you argue with GOD!

[cj]

Don't you know your pissing into the wind here..how dare you argue with GOD!

Why is everyone so touchy? Geez, grow a set people. What does Game On Dude have to do with thus other than providing evidence there was no outside closers bias at CD today?

[CryingForTheHorses]

He might handle dirt just fine but working and racing are two completely different things.


Looks like he handled the dirt and the race..I think as he matures he will be a great horse.

[cj]

Looks like he handled the dirt and the race..I think as he matures he will be a great horse.

TLG actually selected him on his BC Preview show. He had a great weekend.

[Pell Mell]

Why is everyone so touchy? Geez, grow a set people. What does Game On Dude have to do with thus other than providing evidence there was no outside closers bias at CD today?
Alright, let me rephrase it...the track was sort of kind to closers today... :bang:

[cj]

Alright, let me rephrase it...the track was sort of kind to closers today... :bang:

Yes, it was a very fair surface.

[duncan04]

Looks like Turfway is a pretty good place to prep for the big races. First Animal Kingdom and now Hansen!

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't you know your pissing into the wind here..how dare you argue with GOD!Who pissed in your corn flakes this morning?

[Pell Mell]

Who pissed in your corn flakes this morning?

Your adopted son...in his mind, anyone that says a horse is any good doesn't know what they are talking about UNLESS the horse has a big Beyer or CJ figure..that is the ultimate test of a horse...The Fig...tell that to the horse that won...Jeez..he's still wet behind the ears and acts like his word is the be all and end all...talk about a know it all... :faint:

[cj]

Your adopted son...in his mind, anyone that says a horse is any good doesn't know what they are talking about UNLESS the horse has a big Beyer or CJ figure..that is the ultimate test of a horse...The Fig...tell that to the horse that won...Jeez..he's still wet behind the ears and acts like his word is the be all and end all...talk about a know it all... :faint:

A total and complete fabrication about the figures. Keep digging though, or go post on your blog. What happened to those selections you were giving?

[PaceAdvantage]

Your adopted son...in his mind, anyone that says a horse is any good doesn't know what they are talking about UNLESS the horse has a big Beyer or CJ figure..that is the ultimate test of a horse...The Fig...tell that to the horse that won...Jeez..he's still wet behind the ears and acts like his word is the be all and end all...talk about a know it all... :faint:Shouldn't you be busy harassing my members via Private Message trying to drum up some business for your tout service?

[nijinski]

Im not saying he wasn't the best in the race.. im just saying they are acting like him losing was the biggest shock ever.. they went straight to his rider for an interview.. give hanson the attention he deserves
Don't worry about Hansen getting attention . he looks like walked right out of fairytale.

[jognlope]

NY Post handicapper noted how Hansen had won by 12 to 13 lengths in last two wins, but I chose to ignore it. :(

[cj]

NY Post handicapper noted how Hansen had won by 12 to 13 lengths in last two wins, but I chose to ignore it. :(

It was in the past performances as well.

[dnlgfnk]

I'm sure that the factor of largest winning margin(s) in the pp's would have earned a significant coefficient from Benter, regardless of the circumstances.

[FantasticDan]

Congrats to Hansen, what a gutty effort. I thought for sure turning for home he was gonna be inhaled. Sure, if Union Rags doesn't think about going for a hot dog in the stretch he likely gets up, but still a :ThmbUp: run.

I had a chunky win bet all ready to go for Hansen.. knew I likely wouldn't get 10/1, but I was hoping for 7 or 8/1. I had to make my final bets and leave the track just as his race opened up. He was 9/2 at the time (which disappointed me), and so I quickly decided to take the aforementioned chunk and use it to towards my Classic bet instead.

Typical of how my day went.

[samyn on the green]

I like this. I only watched one replay this week and it was Hansen's. Needed to check out those two thirteen length wins. But like a moron I did not play him.

After seeing his big win today I see big potential with this horse. Big white speed horse, I hope he becomes somebody, somebody that could save racing.

This is out of the box but thy should race him with a cone on his head and pretend that he is a unicorn and play his races on Saturday mornings for the kiddies to take up horse racing. This will pay big dividends in 15-20 years. Hansen is a once in a lifetime kinda horse.

Don't worry about Hansen getting attention . he looks like walked right out of fairytale.

[SharpCat]

Outside of Hansen being on the lead whas not really sure what to expect today. He ran much more professionally today. Instead of tearing away on the lead he relaxed very nicely for Ramon and finished much stronger today. It will be interesting to see how Hansen develops with more experience and as the distances increase. Union Rags ran a great race too. To be hooked wide on both turns, shifting out in the streatch and just get beat was huge.

[PaceAdvantage]

I like this. I only watched one replay this week and it was Hansen's. Needed to check out those two thirteen length wins. But like a moron I did not play him.

After seeing his big win today I see big potential with this horse. Big white speed horse, I hope he becomes somebody, somebody that could save racing.

This is out of the box but thy should race him with a cone on his head and pretend that he is a unicorn and play his races on Saturday mornings for the kiddies to take up horse racing. This will pay big dividends in 15-20 years. Hansen is a once in a lifetime kinda horse.You one funny dude!

[Leparoux]

Hansen is MUCH better than any figure player made him out to be. I'm digging my local track Turfway Park horse!

[nijinski]

A nice rivalry for the future too hopefully if he and Union Rags remain sound.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hansen is MUCH better than any figure player made him out to be. I'm digging my local track Turfway Park horse!What about the non-figure players who didn't think much of him before today?

[Leparoux]

What about the non-figure players who didn't think much of him before today?
Um ok, I guess they were wrong too?

Just pointing out that this horse was disregarded mainly due to the speed figure he was given, the horses he ran against and the track he came from.

:5: all day!!

[PaceAdvantage]

Um ok, I guess they were wrong too?

Just pointing out that this horse was disregarded mainly due to the speed figure he was given, the horses he ran against and the track he came from.

:5: all day!!If speed figures rule the world, how come Uncle Mo went off at 5.4-1? He was the fourth choice in the wagering.

Didn't he have the best speed figure?

[Leparoux]

If speed figures rule the world, how come Uncle Mo went off at 5.4-1? He was the fourth choice in the wagering.

Didn't he have the best speed figure?
Who said speed figures rule the world? I just found it funny that every "expert" was tossing Hansen due to his speed figure I would assume.

You are nitpicking posts here... 5 was much better than many thought, figure guy or not. I played him in part because of the local aspect but also because it was a Juvenile race and this horse had done everything asked of him to date.

Great story, great horse, great race, great win.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not nitpicking. Just questioning how much importance you place on speed figures in determining whether or not a horse is highly regarded.

Your posts seem to indicate you think speed figures play a big role in determining whether or not a horse is highly regarded. Uncle Mo is a perfect example of this not being so.

He had the biggest last out speed figure, and in fact had the biggest speed figure of any other horse in the race...ever...and still went off as the fourth choice.

Zenyatta had mediocre speed figures and was one of the most highly regarded horses to come around in years...

[Leparoux]

Not nitpicking. Just questioning how much importance you place on speed figures in determining whether or not a horse is highly regarded.

Your posts seem to indicate you think speed figures play a big role in determining whether or not a horse is highly regarded. Uncle Mo is a perfect example of this not being so.

He had the biggest last out speed figure, and in fact had the biggest speed figure of any other horse in the race...ever...and still went off as the fourth choice.

Zenyatta had mediocre speed figures and was one of the most highly regarded horses to come around in years...
I dunno... My initial post was just addressing the fact that I felt many players tossed the horse because of the speed figures he had earned. I didn't see an "expert" pick this horse all week and given how he had performed, I assumed they tossed him because of the figure/field he ran against. Speed figures certainly play a role... and with a horse that was 2 for 2 and had won by 25 combined lengths, why else was everyone tossing him?

I'm not sure how Uncle Mo got brought into this???

[PaceAdvantage]

Uncle Mo was brought in as an example of a horse with high speed figures that wasn't highly regarded. How many "experts" picked him to win? I would venture to guess none.

And as for Hansen, maybe it was more the fact that he had only run on polytrack at Turfway Park and had faced nothing but maidens and minor stakes runners that made some folks a tad unimpressed...

[Bullet Plane]

Hansen was the top pick of Byron King in the Daily Racing Form. Many of the workout specialists liked him as well.

The par for the race is 100, no horse in the race had attained that mark. The speed figures looked light for this group. Andy Beyer picked Hansen as well in an article in the Daily Racing Form.

[Leparoux]

Uncle Mo was brought in as an example of a horse with high speed figures that wasn't highly regarded. How many "experts" picked him to win? I would venture to guess none.

And as for Hansen, maybe it was more the fact that he had only run on polytrack at Turfway Park and had faced nothing but maidens and minor stakes runners that made some folks a tad unimpressed...
Yea I get the point, but not sure why he was brought into it. Completely different circumstances. So to answer your question... no I don't think most people simply look for the top speed figure in the race bet that horse.

[Robert Fischer]

Hansen was the top pick of Byron King in the Daily Racing Form. Many of the workout specialists liked him as well.

The par for the race is 100, no horse in the race had attained that mark. The speed figures looked light for this group. Andy Beyer picked Hansen as well in an article in the Daily Racing Form.

i sided with the majority of the best horseplayers, and passed the juvenile.





*smugly pats self on back for the pre-race analysis of Hansen and his preps in post 56 of this thread*

[cj]

Andy Serling picked him as well on the NYRA site.

[classhandicapper]

IMO speed figures play a huge role in the betting, but I think the smartest gamblers also look at the trip, race development, pace, bias and other issues when evaluating performances. That gets built into the odds also.

Personally, I thought Hansen was bet approximately correctly. He hadn't
run that fast against weaker, but he had set some fast paces on a track that was probably not as conducive to his style as a dirt track would be "assuming" he liked it. He also looked like he would shake loose in that field and was switching to Ramon, who is great on the front end. He HAD to get bet and had to be given a decent chance.

However, IMHO, Union Rags deserved to be a solid favorite because he had run faster against better horses, on dirt, and looked like there was more in the tank after the finish in his last two races.

I think the race was extremely formful. Hansen ran well, but only won because Union Rags lost a ton of ground on both turns and ducked out from left handed whipping in the stretch again and lost a little momentum. IMO UR was tons the best.

(I passed the race)

[Robert Fischer]

IMO speed figures play a huge role in the betting, but I think the smartest gamblers also look at the trip, race development, pace, bias and other issues when evaluating performances. That gets built into the odds also.

Personally, I thought Hansen was bet approximately correctly. He hadn't
run that fast against weaker, but he had set some fast paces on a track that was probably not as conducive to his style as a dirt track would be "assuming" he liked it. He also looked like he would shake loose in that field and was switching to Ramon, who is great on the front end. He HAD to get bet and had to be given a decent chance.

However, IMHO, Union Rags deserved to be a solid favorite because he had run faster against better horses, on dirt, and looked like there was more in the tank after the finish in his last two races.

I think the race was extremely formful. Hansen ran well, but only won because Union Rags lost a ton of ground on both turns and ducked out from left handed whipping in the stretch again and lost a little momentum. IMO UR was tons the best.

(I passed the race)

good point.

Ramon did a great job rationing speed and getting Hansen to relax more than in his "preps".

Rags was dominant coming into the race in every sense. Hansen had a puncher's chance, and he was the ONLY one, save for taking a reach with the Euros.

Rags paid OK for place @ 3.20... nothing amazing...

Multi race players were those most happy with Hansen.

[Steve R]

Big BSF of 80 awarded for this one. Well, better than Astrology got all of his 2yo campaign, so I can see how this guy could be the next wonder horse...
By my analysis Beyer was 11 points too low. I had Hansen with a Beyer-equivalent 88 in his debut, a 91 in the KY Cup Juvenile and, now, a 100 in the BC Juvenile.

[classhandicapper]

Ramon did a great job rationing speed and getting Hansen to relax more than in his "preps".



I love Ramon. Obviously he gets a lot of good mounts and the public bets him heavily, but IMO he moves a lot of horses up. I don't consider myself anything special as an evaluator of jockeys, but he stands out so much it's clear to me he's special.

[OTM Al]

By my analysis Beyer was 11 points too low. I had Hansen with a Beyer-equivalent 88 in his debut, a 91 in the KY Cup Juvenile and, now, a 100 in the BC Juvenile.

I'd disagree and I don't think the Juvie is going to get that high a number. cj has it at 94 which seems reasonable. I also think this guy is about at his limit of distance and will bet hard against should he reemerge in the spring.

[FantasticDan]

Andy Serling picked him as well on the NYRA site.
Wow, I had to see that for myself given his comments earlier in this thread. The "Ramon factor", and he was proven right; Ramon harnessed his speed brilliantly. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

I'd disagree and I don't think the Juvie is going to get that high a number. cj has it at 94 which seems reasonable. I also think this guy is about at his limit of distance and will bet hard against should he reemerge in the spring.

FYI...Those are the actual Beyers, not what I have it.

[Steve R]

IMO speed figures play a huge role in the betting, but I think the smartest gamblers also look at the trip, race development, pace, bias and other issues when evaluating performances. That gets built into the odds also.

Personally, I thought Hansen was bet approximately correctly. He hadn't
run that fast against weaker, but he had set some fast paces on a track that was probably not as conducive to his style as a dirt track would be "assuming" he liked it. He also looked like he would shake loose in that field and was switching to Ramon, who is great on the front end. He HAD to get bet and had to be given a decent chance.

However, IMHO, Union Rags deserved to be a solid favorite because he had run faster against better horses, on dirt, and looked like there was more in the tank after the finish in his last two races.

I think the race was extremely formful. Hansen ran well, but only won because Union Rags lost a ton of ground on both turns and ducked out from left handed whipping in the stretch again and lost a little momentum. IMO UR was tons the best.

(I passed the race)
My figures tell a different story. I have Hansen with the third fastest MSW figure for any 2yo in 2011 and I have his KY Cup Juvenile as the fastest 2yo stakes race prior to the BC Juvenile. I also think that Hansen ran against a bias as the other two multi-turn dirt races were won by horses running 9th early. If one wants to cite Game On Dude as an argument against a front-end bias, well he did lose and he is a horse that could very well be Horse of the Year, so one could argue his was also a special effort under the circumstances. IMO, at this stage of their careers, Hansen is clearly the best 2yo in North America. The bigger concern for me about his potential is the lack of any significant class in his female family. The last direct SW produced by any mare in his female line was in 1980 and the last graded stakes winner was in 1973. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't be a monster, it's just something to consider.

[cj]

My figures tell a different story. I have Hansen with the third fastest MSW figure for any 2yo in 2011 and I have his KY Cup Juvenile as the fastest 2yo stakes race prior to the BC Juvenile. I also think that Hansen ran against a bias as the other two multi-turn dirt races were won by horses running 9th early. If one wants to cite Game On Dude as an argument against a front-end bias, well he did lose and he is a horse that could very well be Horse of the Year, so one could argue his was also a special effort under the circumstances. IMO, at this stage of their careers, Hansen is clearly the best 2yo in North America. The bigger concern for me about his potential is the lack of any significant class in his female family. The last direct SW produced by any mare in his female line was in 1980 and the last graded stakes winner was in 1973. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't be a monster, it's just something to consider.

Honestly, it really doesn't matter how your figures compared to Beyer's figures. What matters are how your figures for Hansen compared to your figures for Union Rags. Also, do they always transfer from polytrack to dirt so well? I think his price was just about right given the circumstances.

[Steve R]

Honestly, it really doesn't matter how your figures compared to Beyer's figures. What matters are how your figures for Hansen compared to your figures for Union Rags. Also, do they always transfer from polytrack to dirt so well? I think his price was just about right given the circumstances.
These are my Beyer equivalents (I use a different scale and include pace in the single final figure).

Union Rags:
MSW 82
Saratoga Special 82
Champagne 87
BC Juvenile 100

Hansen:
MSW 88
KY Cup Juvenile 91
BC Juvenile 100

The difference between my average figures on dirt and AWS at the same class level using data back to 1999 is about 1/2 length in both routes and sprints.

[cj]

These are my Beyer equivalents (I use a different scale and include pace in the single final figure).

Union Rags:
MSW 82
Saratoga Special 82
Champagne 87
BC Juvenile 100

Hansen:
MSW 88
KY Cup Juvenile 91
BC Juvenile 100

The difference between my average figures on dirt and AWS at the same class level using data back to 1999 is about 1/2 length in both routes and sprints.

That is what matters. I hope you get that I wasn't knocking you there.

As for the data being close, that is easy to do. But, it doesn't mean individual horses will run within a half length when switching surfaces. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I'm sure you know that.

[Steve R]

That is what matters. I hope you get that I wasn't knocking you there.

As for the data being close, that is easy to do. But, it doesn't mean individual horses will run within a half length when switching surfaces. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. I'm sure you know that.
I was only pointing out that my figures don't have the dirt/AWS bias that many attribute to BSFs, not that an individual horse necessarily will handle both surfaces equally. OTOH, I do believe Hansen is physiologically superior to Union Rags, although physiological superiority doesn't always trump class and distance capability. At this point I think Union Rags does have the greater TC potential and is more likely to stay a classic distance.

[PICSIX]

Andy Serling picked him as well on the NYRA site.

I picked him in my motel room the night before but didn't bet him because I felt the odds offered were too low relative to his chances of winning. Picking and wagering are completely different animals. ;)

[cj]

I picked him in my motel room the night before but didn't bet him because I felt the odds offered were too low relative to his chances of winning. Picking and wagering are completely different animals. ;)

Sure, they are, but Serling bet him as well. It was in response to someone mentioning no public selectors "picked" this horse. I think he was bet about right by the public.

[classhandicapper]

My figures tell a different story. I have Hansen with the third fastest MSW figure for any 2yo in 2011 and I have his KY Cup Juvenile as the fastest 2yo stakes race prior to the BC Juvenile. I also think that Hansen ran against a bias as the other two multi-turn dirt races were won by horses running 9th early. If one wants to cite Game On Dude as an argument against a front-end bias, well he did lose and he is a horse that could very well be Horse of the Year, so one could argue his was also a special effort under the circumstances. IMO, at this stage of their careers, Hansen is clearly the best 2yo in North America. The bigger concern for me about his potential is the lack of any significant class in his female family. The last direct SW produced by any mare in his female line was in 1980 and the last graded stakes winner was in 1973. That doesn't necessarily mean he won't be a monster, it's just something to consider.

Making corrections for pace and surfaces was not something I included in my analysis or that is included in Beyer figures. I also had his previous race as a fast pace and thought he "could possibly" run faster on the switch to dirt. I did not think he had run better than UR going into that race though.

Personally, I think UR was much better on Saturday too.

I am open to the idea that CD was a bit tiring on Saturday, but Hansen was loose on the lead, Creative Cause was the only quality chaser and he finished OK, so it didn't take much out of him, and UR lost somewhere between 8-10 lengths being wide depending on how many feet you assign to a length. It's somewhere between difficult and impossible for me to believe that the track condition was anywhere near as much of a disadvantage as UR's ground loss and I'm not not even that literal about ground loss.

[Leparoux]

Making corrections for pace and surfaces was not something I included in my analysis or that is included in Beyer figures. I also had his previous race as a fast pace and thought he "could possibly" run faster on the switch to dirt. I did not think he had run better than UR going into that race though.

Personally, I think UR was much better on Saturday too.

I am open to the idea that CD was a bit tiring on Saturday, but Hansen was loose on the lead, Creative Cause was the only quality chaser and he finished OK, so it didn't take much out of him, and UR lost somewhere between 8-10 lengths being wide depending on how many feet you assign to a length. It's somewhere between difficult and impossible for me to believe that the track condition was anywhere near as much of a disadvantage as UR's ground loss and I'm not not even that literal about ground loss.
I'm not sure how "loose on the lead" he was. Those fractions were pretty solid. I can see both sides of the argument that as to which horse was actually better on Saturday. Saying one was "much better" is silly IMO. Hansen was very gritty and ran a great race. To each his own though.

[cj]

I'm not sure how "loose on the lead" he was. Those fractions were pretty solid. I can see both sides of the argument that as to which horse was actually better on Saturday. Saying one was "much better" is silly IMO. Hansen was very gritty and ran a great race. To each his own though.

If they ran 1 1/16th and Hansen could relax a little more, I think it would be very close. At longer, I'd probably favor Union Rags right now, but then again, he'd be a shorter price so maybe not.

[Leparoux]

If they ran 1 1/16th and Hansen could relax a little more, I think it would be very close. At longer, I'd probably favor Union Rags right now, but then again, he'd be a shorter price so maybe not.
:ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

I would like to see him on the turf

[cj]

I would like to see him on the turf

For the contast in color? He doesn't run or look like a turf horse.

[RXB]

I see neither Hansen nor Union Rags as Ky Derby winners. Hansen's style is anathema to winning the Derby and I don't like Union Rags' pedigree for anything beyond 1 1/16.

[JustRalph]

For the contast in color? He doesn't run or look like a turf horse.

just for fun. I love speed horses on the turf at the longer distances. Now that you mention it.......the color would be fun too.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure how "loose on the lead" he was. Those fractions were pretty solid. I can see both sides of the argument that as to which horse was actually better on Saturday. Saying one was "much better" is silly IMO. Hansen was very gritty and ran a great race. To each his own though.

I understand what you are saying.

It's a matter of weighing 8-10 lengths of ground loss vs. being the horse doing some work on the lead on a track that wasn't particularly great for speed.

In my estimation, Hansen wasn't working particularly hard on the lead to the point I would say "Wow, that was a tough trip". He wasn't dueling and the fractions weren't killer. He ran a good race.

I think UR's ground loss was a pretty legitimate negative. He wasn't just loafing on the first turn and his move on the second turn started early, was sustained, and very wide.

I would take UR in the rematch all day long under neutral conditions. That's not the same as saying Hansen was lucky or that either is a derby horse that can get 10F, I just think UR was much better Saturday.

[papillon]

Papillon ,albeit most know Hansen is officially grey . he is rare though . You just don't see that many two year olds on the track at age two looking that white.

yes, i know. that had been my point in my my original post (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1165130&postcount=15). in the post you quoted of mine, i was just responding to someone hectoring me about how hansen is and always will be a grey, and how horses can only be white if registered white at birth, after i had said hansen might be truly white by derby day, given how bizarrely pale he is already.

it's kinda funny, you know? you say that hansen's like something out of a fairy tale and nobody bats an eye. i say he's like something out of a Disney movie and i get flack, invoking the specter of zenyatta-tards...go figure...i've been online long enough to know that is usually a bad sign of a public forum that is in reality a private club...it's kinda sad tbh because there just really aren't too many place to talk horses online--and tvg's forum's is so dysfunctional it would make encyclopedia dramatica proud....sigh...

I also want to mention since you brought up knowledge and breeding that Union Rags may have some stamina from Tempo . I watched Tempo's dam many years ago and that one could run all day. We'll have to wait and see .

good call on the dam side, union rags looks to have more stamina than most dixie unions, but we'll see, even indian charlies with liver disease can get 1 1/16 ;)

I had a chunky win bet all ready to go for Hansen.. knew I likely wouldn't get 10/1, but I was hoping for 7 or 8/1. I had to make my final bets and leave the track just as his race opened up. He was 9/2 at the time (which disappointed me), and so I quickly decided to take the aforementioned chunk and use it to towards my Classic bet instead.

Typical of how my day went.

where'd you place your bet at? i got 7-1 on hansen for my $100 to win bet on tvg, and that was the same price they were quoting on espn at post time.


I would take UR in the rematch all day long under neutral conditions. That's not the same as saying Hansen was lucky or that either is a derby horse that can get 10F, I just think UR was much better Saturday.

from your lips to all the other bettors' ears! i'd like to keep my future odds on hansen as long as possible.

my fear about hansen is that both his sire and his grandsire had to be retired as 3 year olds because of injuries, i don't have any questions about whether he can get 1 1/4, he'll get it, if he stays sound. my only question is whether he'll stay sound. if he does, he'll vindicate himself (heck--he already has vindicated himself, and me too come to think of it).

[RXB]

good call on the dam side, union rags looks to have more stamina than most dixie unions


Tempo has not been a source of stamina for her many previous North American runners. 82 dirt sprint starts versus 8 dirt route starts.

[Leparoux]

How about the Derby winner and BC Juvenile winner coming from Turfway Park this year!!