PA Derby

[Pell Mell]

Dutrow has hinted he may scratch Rush Now...how much of a difference do you think it will make with him in or out of the race?... he would seem to be the only one to put pressure on To Honor And Serve...also, do you think it would be a dumb move on Dutrow's part to scratch Rush?

[Robert Fischer]

Dutrow has hinted he may scratch Rush Now...how much of a difference do you think it will make with him in or out of the race?... he would seem to be the only one to put pressure on To Honor And Serve...also, do you think it would be a dumb move on Dutrow's part to scratch Rush?

He should be right on the lead.

Rush Now counts for a good deal of pace pressure.

Grove will want Norman Asbjornson to be on the pace as well.


Dutrow knows way more than me! :cool: Would he then run in the Kent Stakes??

[castaway01]

If the weather forecast holds true, I would look for horses who like the mud because heavy rain is predicted for Friday into Saturday.

[ManU918]

If the weather forecast holds true, I would look for horses who like the mud because heavy rain is predicted for Friday into Saturday.

Seems to me that the ML odds maker has already taken that into consideration with Ruler on Ice being the ML favorite.

[ten2oneormore]

If its cuppy that only helps matters more but either way I see Rattlesnake Bridge flying 4/5 wide past THAS ,ROI , and everyone else.

[Robert Fischer]

Would he then run in the Kent Stakes??

if Dutrow can secure a top pace jockey for the turf (#RD), Rush Now might get a decent trip in the Kent.

[ManU918]

if Dutrow can secure a top pace jockey for the turf (#RD), Rush Now might get a decent trip in the Kent.

From what I hear Rush Now isn't going to run in either race now.

[ten2oneormore]

From what I hear Rush Now isn't going to run in either race now.


When did you hear this? Dutrow confirmed yesterday that both Rush Now and JW Blue were both definite for the PA Derby.

[toussaud]

they are giving way free money with Rattlesnake Ridge at that price. he's just better than these horses but THAS and ruler gone ice cold will take all the play because of the big names

[Robert Fischer]

they are giving way free money with Rattlesnake Ridge at that price. he's just better than these horses but THAS and ruler gone ice cold will take all the play because of the big names

gutsy call :ThmbUp:

we'll see if your opinion rings true and Rattlesnake Bridge proves to be BEST either in win or defeat.

[DeltaLover]

Of course he might bounce...

If not, this is a one horse race...

THAS seems to be much superior than any other runner in this race and can simplify the struggle for the first position ...

He can easily be proven the best horse of this (extremely weak) crop.

[Robert Fischer]

and now a vote for THAS :eek:


will try to make a confident declaration if i have one after 'capping!

[onefast99]

If its cuppy that only helps matters more but either way I see Rattlesnake Bridge flying 4/5 wide past THAS ,ROI , and everyone else.
The track will be wet fast for that race.

[ManU918]

When did you hear this? Dutrow confirmed yesterday that both Rush Now and JW Blue were both definite for the PA Derby.

Well then your right if that's what he said. I seen it on some video that Twinspires sent out about the race. Forgot who said it but it was a panel of three broadcasters.

[Pell Mell]

Dutrow had both horses cross entered in the Kent but that race will probably come off the turf, so who knows what will happen ????

[jefftune]

If Rush Now scratches, To Honor And Serve wins it. If Rush Now doesn't scratch, To Honor And Serve wins it.

[toussaud]

how far was THAS's last race, was it a mile?

[GaryG]

they are giving way free money with Rattlesnake Ridge at that price. he's just better than these horses but THAS and ruler gone ice cold will take all the play because of the big namesI am with you on this one...should be at least 3-1. Color him green gor money.

[PhantomOnTour]

As the only Gr1 winner in this field, Ruler On Ice gets to carry 124lbs today, giving 5lbs to Ratt Bridge and 10lbs(!!!) to THAS...i don't fret over weights that much but 10lbs is too much.
No way ROI can stalk an expected quick pace btw Rush Now and THAS and have any kind of finish in him...not at those weights.

Rush Now will most likely be pushing as hard as possible early to set up stablemate JW Blue, who can get a share.
I'm taking a wild stab and keying Arthur's Tale underneath...say what!!??

A) projects to get a very nice rail stalking trip behind a possible duel
B) has won his last two off the layoff
C) can handle an off track, which is in the forecast

He's not good enough to win this, and the work tab looks a bit leisurely, but my fig for the Wood Mem puts him within hailing distance of the top ones in here...let's get a few breaks today!

TRI:
:7: :8: :9:
:4: :7: :8: :9:
:2:

EX:
:7: :8: :9:
:2:

[toussaud]

i knew i knew that name (authur's tale) from somewhere


anyone know how the other one is doing, the horse that won the wood whose name is escaping me right now

[PhantomOnTour]

Toby's Corner

[precocity]

As the only Gr1 winner in this field, Ruler On Ice gets to carry 124lbs today, giving 5lbs to Ratt Bridge and 10lbs(!!!) to THAS...i don't fret over weights that much but 10lbs is too much.
No way ROI can stalk an expected quick pace btw Rush Now and THAS and have any kind of finish in him...not at those weights.

Rush Now will most likely be pushing as hard as possible early to set up stablemate JW Blue, who can get a share.
I'm taking a wild stab and keying Arthur's Tale underneath...say what!!??

A) projects to get a very nice rail stalking trip behind a possible duel
B) has won his last two off the layoff
C) can handle an off track, which is in the forecast

He's not good enough to win this, and the work tab looks a bit leisurely, but my fig for the Wood Mem puts him within hailing distance of the top ones in here...let's get a few breaks today!

TRI:
:7: :8: :9:
:4: :7: :8: :9:
:2:

EX:
:7: :8: :9:
:2:
phantom gut felling tells me ROI will be in the mix... :cool:

[PhantomOnTour]

phantom gut felling tells me ROI will be in the mix... :cool:
Gomez had better take him back off that pace...he does love the slop which will help if it comes up messy, but doesn't a 10lb shake worry the folks backing ROI?

[Ocala Mike]

JW BLUE was cross-entered at Delaware, and opts for this tougher spot with Leparoux and B's on. Ready to join the "big boy's club" today with slight improvement.


Ocala Mike

[precocity]

Gomez had better take him back off that pace...he does love the slop which will help if it comes up messy, but doesn't a 10lb shake worry the folks backing ROI?
your right and I think gomez will, just a big gut feeling you know... :cool:

[Pell Mell]

Speed has been gangbusters so far...I hope it doesn't stay that way all day:ThmbDown:

[gm10]

To Honor And Serve.
If the pace is too hot, Rattlesnake Bridge could pass them all late in the race, but my choice based on the ML odds is THAS.

[gm10]

crazy fractions in the Gallant Bob Stakes
track record?

[Tom]

Is the race on TVG or HRTV?

[Tom]

:5: :7: :9:

[olddaddy]

:3: :5: :8:

[Robert Fischer]

THAS

the well hyped , well liked horse with the cool acronym won by a large margin and paid out a lot of winners.

That's about the best result I could ask for from that race. :ThmbUp:

Didn't see any great prices on board. Gomez gave ROI a nICE ride to build from. There was a horse that didn't figure to be on the lead today, and really needed a positive going forward.

[Valuist]

BC Classic next?

[DeltaLover]

Of course he might bounce...

If not, this is a one horse race...

THAS seems to be much superior than any other runner in this race and can simplify the struggle for the first position ...

He can easily be proven the best horse of this (extremely weak) crop.

pbGMdcKbmas

[toussaud]

honestly i looked at the race trying to nitpick it and find a flaw because iu';m not a huge THAS fan.. but i can't. that was dang impressive. he knew he had the front runner whenever he felt like it but still that's race horse time.

i would think seriously about the classic. still think he's a notch below HDG though but at the right odds i'd take him with the grow up play



I am noticing a very distinct trend.. B'dini babies are peaking late their 3YO season. THAS and Stay thirsty are much better than theyw ere earlier in the year. I thought both were vastly overrated earlier and i don't think i was wrong.They aren't overrated anymore

[Robert Fischer]

[..this is a one horse race...

THAS seems to be much superior than any other runner in this race and can simplify the struggle for the first position ...

He can easily be proven the best horse of this (extremely weak) crop.

good call , you were right

[Robert Fischer]

they are giving way free money with Rattlesnake Ridge at that price. he's just better than these horses ...

i haven't gone over the race again -
did you see any excuses with Rattlesnake Bridge??


what made you think he was a big overlay @ 4/1 ml odds ??

[menifee]

This race means absolutely nothing in terms of the breeders cup. That track was a joke. Are you telling me Royal Currier (race before) whose highest beyer is 94, runs 1:07:2 and breaks the track record on a fair track?

THAS caught a biased speed favoring track and held on. He would get beat badly against his elders. The three year old division is absolutely horrible.

[toussaud]

i haven't gone over the race again -
did you see any excuses with Rattlesnake Bridge??


what made you think he was a big overlay @ 4/1 ml odds ??
i just thought he has held better company and that he was more likely to get the distance. I also thouht THAS would have trouble with 9F, even though he won the race as a 2YO at 9F it wasn't impressive IMHO at all and won moreso by default.

I honestly, just did not think a hell of alot of the horse. he proved me wrong today. he's a good horse.

RB tried to make a move on the turn and just got ran off his feet.

[classhandicapper]

IMO the track was clearly biased.

Ruler on Ice seems like one of those horses that is consistently either going to run against the grain of the track or get a bad ride. Not that he's anything special, but IMO that's 3 races in a row he didn't get to show his best.

He moved to the deal rail during the stretch run of the Haskell and his rally stalled.

He was used multiple times early to stay with the hot early pace of Shackleford and Stay Thirsty when the jock should have just sat off them from the start, saved ground, and rallied late.

He closed strongly into a speed favoring track.

One of these days he's going to beat a good field, but at this rate it may not be until next year and by then I'll probably forget that he's a little better than he looks. :rolleyes:

[turninforhome10]

When Parx is fast, it is crazy fast. THAS is doing exactly was his pedigree says he should get better with age. Mott almost started completely over with the horse after FLA. Brilliant training and will be anxious to see him go on. Rattlesnake Bridge ran out of pedigree as he had a perfect trip in the Travers. Johnny V dropped his odds is my guess. Ruler On Ice owners had mentioned that they wanted him on the front end. Why? Gomez rode him perfect he is a one run 3/8ths horse. Setting up as a battle of the Bernadini's for 3yo honors?

[cj]

I agree the track was heavily speed favoring, but I will add that fast times alone mean very little in that determination.

[PhantomOnTour]

Well, my underneath exotics key ran pretty good, but looked like a short horse. Got the dream stalking trip but wasn't good enough.
The camerawork in the lane could have been a bit better...though AT was swinging out to move into second but he slipped off the screen and the next thing I know it's Ruler On Ice rolling onto the scene...AT hung for 4th but may have gotten a lot out of this race...son of Bernardini is growing up and could be tough next time.
Ofcourse, he is a Godolphin production, so....ya know.

[turninforhome10]

I agree the track was heavily speed favoring, but I will add that fast times alone mean very little in that determination.

When Parx is fast it just like Keeeneland in that its a conveyor.

[Robert Fischer]

...i just thought he has held better company...
it looked pretty clear-cut that ruler on ice had held the better company.

im not trying to be a smartass, is this a case of brainfreeze where I am missing something obvious that you and others see in RB?


i just thought he has held better company and that he was more likely to get the distance. I also thouht THAS would have trouble with 9F, even though he won the race as a 2YO at 9F it wasn't impressive IMHO at all and won moreso by default.

I honestly, just did not think a hell of a lot of the horse. he proved me wrong today. he's a good horse.

RB tried to make a move on the turn and just got ran off his feet.

ok so it looks like you are being a little more advanced and doing a whole lot of COMPARING RB to others like the Favorite THAS. :ThmbUp:
I had pretty much meant the individual athlete RB.
I know comparisons are what gives things any meaning whatsoever, i just start with the individual if i am going to think 4-1 odds are a big overlay, and I will want to think he's a great individual in that case if $10 is going to be considered a steal.
I know u made the post in the morning(im guessing and too lazy to open a new window at 2am!!) :) , and the horse actually went off at 5-2. He was now a $7 horse instead of a $10 horse in the morning line.
Was he still a play? or had he drifted too far???
OR :confused: = did the PUBLIC $$$$ indicate a possibility that he was ready to run big ???

TRAVERS FLASHBACK :eek: *RUBS EYES*
*TWISTS KALEIDOSCOPE* (Now i know Valdivia gave kind of a goofy ride on Ruler on Ice in the Travers. AND yes, those were subtle things (for the most part), And your horse RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE obviously was asked a little bit early and had to come a little wide in the stretch, and that had to make the ride be pretty even with Ruler ON ICE. So, I apparently agree that RB outran ROI in the Travers. You didn't have any problem with RB lugging in upon entering after being stressed with the early move???

Obviously the biggest question (and one i am SADLY lacking information on!) - What significance if ANY?? did you give to John Velazquez riding RB, when he had been the rider on THAS??? Surprised that wasn't your reason.
ANYONE WHO KNOWS please chime in.

when i posted this question, i kind of highly expected you to come out and say that RB was an improving horse, where you LOVED the jockey assignment.

[toussaud]

i've always somewhat liked RB as well, even in the timley writer i thought he held his own and ran good given the circumstances. I thought he ran good in the travers. I thought if he could run back to that he would win this race. He didn't and frankly if he did i still don't think it would have won the race.

[Robert Fischer]

IMO the track was clearly biased.

Ruler on Ice seems like one of those horses that is consistently either going to run against the grain of the track or get a bad ride.

IN the PADERBY he sure didn't get a bad ride or have to run against the grain!

unless you think ROI is just a straight up better racehorse than THAS it was just about the highest percentage ride he could have gotten from Gomez.

clearly 2nd best today, and the bias played no role whatsoever in ROI's placing, time, anything. ***
If anything the setup HELPED ROI!
softening his main place/show competitor RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE who is either far far inferior to your boy ICEMAN, or alternatively RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE was leg weary.


***EDIT= TIME? - SURE THE BIAS PLAYED A ROLE IN RAW TIME, MEANING HERE IS REFERRING TO TIME IN RELATION TO THIS FIELD OF HORSES

[Canarsie]

This race means absolutely nothing in terms of the breeders cup. That track was a joke. Are you telling me Royal Currier (race before) whose highest beyer is 94, runs 1:07:2 and breaks the track record on a fair track?

THAS caught a biased speed favoring track and held on. He would get beat badly against his elders. The three year old division is absolutely horrible.

While your analysis is probably accurate I find that almost all tracks maintain their surface to its highest quality and maximum performance on their biggest days. I might be off base on this but my hunch is most track records are set on days like the Pa. Derby or similar when you get the top horses and conditions are set up for very fast times.

If there was exchange wagering on something like this I would bet a nice chunk o change at the right odds. I know its harness but what the Meadowlands does to its track on Pace Night is almost criminal. Records are broken or nearly broken because the track is conducive to what they want to achieve.

On JGCP day watch how fast the times are unless the track is sloppy.


My two cents.

[ten2oneormore]

Anyone who tried to cap this race before Saturday surely reconsidered after they watched the first 10 races.
As for Rattlesnake Bridge I wouldn't take anything from this race .If the track plays the way it does just about every other day of the year he benefits the most with his style/post.Ruler On Ice was the most impressive and THAS is a bet against depending where he shows up imo.
It is Parx though so we shouldn't have expected anything less.

[Bullet Plane]

To Honor and Serve scored an acceptable Beyer of 103 for this race, par being about 106. He also had the advantage of a very speed favoring track. Every winner on the twelve race card was on or near the lead.

He also enjoyed a ten pound advantage in the weights over rival Ruler on Ice. Ruler on Ice had to swing six wide into the stretch, which cost him some ground, as well.

Off this race, I'd rate the horses roughly the same.

[classhandicapper]

IN the PADERBY he sure didn't get a bad ride or have to run against the grain!

unless you think ROI is just a straight up better racehorse than THAS it was just about the highest percentage ride he could have gotten from Gomez.

clearly 2nd best today, and the bias played no role whatsoever in ROI's placing, time, anything. ***
If anything the setup HELPED ROI!
softening his main place/show competitor RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE who is either far far inferior to your boy ICEMAN, or alternatively RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE was leg weary.

***EDIT= TIME? - SURE THE BIAS PLAYED A ROLE IN RAW TIME, MEANING HERE IS REFERRING TO TIME IN RELATION TO THIS FIELD OF HORSES

I agree that he got a good ride yesterday, but I don't agree with you on much else.

IMO he was ridden in the PA Derby approximately the way he should have been ridden in the Travers at 10F. Had he been ridden that way last time, he probably would have been second and maybe even threatened Stay Thirsty given the way the Travers developed (Stay Thirsty was clearly best but it was a fast pace). It was borderline insane to make multiple moves on the lead with him in the Travers when the pace was fast, the horse rates well, and he doesn't even have that much natural speed to begin with. Rattlesnake Bride and JW Blue were the ones that benefited in the Travers. So they probably looked better than they were going into yesterday.

Yesterday, PARX was a conveyor belt favoring speed.

Rush Now and a few hopeless long shots near the pace may have backed up giving the impression that the race development helped closers, but IMO that was not a particularly fast pace. The fractions appear fast, but the track was blazing fast. IMO, Rush Now backed up because he was simply bad yesterday (and I used him at that price). The other horses near the lead were 40-1 and 90-1 and figured to collapse under almost any circumstances.

IMO, even though ROI was ridden properly yesterday, the track was helping to carry the one quality speed in front of him (To Honor and Serve). On a more neutral track, IMO he would have had a much better chance of picking him up.

Projecting forward is an entirely different matter. THAS is a lightly raced horse that showed solid ability at 2. He seems to be getting his act together. So he could continue moving forward and become a very good horse. ROI seems to be more or less flat lining at this level even though IMHO he's underrated.

[onefast99]

I think Ruler on Ice should try the BC marathon he looks like he wants more distance.

[toussaud]

I think Ruler on Ice should try the BC marathon he looks like he wants more distance.
yep. him and Druesslemyer

[Valuist]

Taking a look at the Prx charts, this track was insanely favoring speed. THAS becomes a go-against next out, assuming he gets a neutral track.